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Koei Tecmo Q4 FY3/2024 Financial Results (January - March 2024) | Ordinary / net profits up vs previous FY, sales lower than the original forecast

https://www.koeitecmo.co.jp/ir/docs/ir1_20240430.pdf FY3/2024 YTD (from April 2023 to March 2024) Summary (Million Yen) Sales: 84.584 (+7,9% over the same period of FY3/2023) Operating Profit: 28.494 (-27,2%) Ordinary Profit: 45.741 (+14,6%) Net Profit: 33.792 (+9,2%) Increase in sales...

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A Japanese analyst, Hideki Yasuda, wrote about Japanese developers recently. What’s interesting for us (thanks @Oregano for finding this), is he wrote about which were games fell short of KT’s expectations. People in this thread definitely nailed it based on the presentation. https://s.kabutan.jp/news/n202406150141/

Google translate (emphasis mine):

Koei Tecmo Holdings (Koei Tecmo HD) <3635> reported an increase in sales and a decrease in operating profit for the fiscal year ending March 2024. The company's game business has not been blessed with hit titles since the previous fiscal year, and all of the titles released in the fiscal year ending March 2023, including "Wild Hearts" and "Warlon Fallen Dynasty," "Fate Samurai Remnant" and "Rise of Ronin," which it developed, fell short of their targets. In particular, it was explained that "Fate" was a 2 million unit title (as it covers the entire life cycle, the plan for the fiscal year ending March 2024 is unknown), so it is assumed that it fell far short of its targets.

…

The company's titles are highly rated by those who have played them, but they are not being purchased in the first place. In particular, "Rise of Ronin," which was developed as a 5 million unit title, fell far short of its targets. We interviewed PS5 (PlayStation 5) users, and many of them said that they found it difficult to get into the game because there was too little information about the game.

 

[feynoob]

Good games. It's just doesn't translate that much to the masses sadly.

 

[adamsapple]

Good games. It's just doesn't translate that much to the masses sadly.

Something to be said about bloated expectations. Ronin, despite being their fastest selling game, still fell under their projected expectations.

 

[Pelao]

The most shocking part of all of that to me is that Fate had a target of 2 million.
Do these target figures actually come from Koei Tecmo or are they just analyst speculation? Because if it's the former, someone at that company needs a reality check.

 

[StereoVsn]

Good games. It's just doesn't translate that much to the masses sadly.

Wo-Long was a technical mess and not a particularly good game.

Ronin I think suffered due to exclusivity.

 

[Matt_Fox]

Why they've left Ninja Gaiden and Dead Or Alive to wither away I do not know...

Both series have an built-in fanbase and they just need to make the best game they can for each.

 

[feynoob]

Wo-Long was a technical mess and not a particularly good game.

Ronin I think suffered due to exclusivity.

All of them had technical mess. Hence why the masses avoid it.

We tolerate them to a certain degree.

 

[StereoVsn]

All of them had technical mess. Hence why the masses avoid it.

We tolerate them to a certain degree.

You got to have a good game under it though. So-Long didn’t have that I would say.

Ronin could have done with better marketing and more realistic expectations, IMO. Well, and a PC release.

 

[feynoob]

Something to be said about bloated expectations. Ronin, despite being their fastest selling game, still fell under their projected expectations.

It's not 2010 anymore. Games are expensive to make these days. They have to make a return of their investments.

 

[feynoob]

You got to have a good game under it though. So-Long didn’t have that I would say.

Ronin could have done with better marketing and more realistic expectations, IMO. Well, and a PC release.

The only message at this point is make sure your game works and you have multiplatform release.

 

[StueyDuck]

A JP publisher not having their game meet unusually high expectations.

Never saw it coming

 

[Punished Miku]

That's what I thought based on what I saw previously in other threads. Some people sure couldnt wait to give me shit for that.

I was so excited for Wo Long. Turned out to be the worst TN game I've maybe ever played.

Stanger in Paradise is still the best Nioh-like. Nioh 1 and 2 are amazing. Rise of the Ronin is average, better than Wo Long at least but worse than all their other games. You can definitely tell they targeted a much more casual audience with RotR so I guess they were hoping for a breakout hit.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

All of them had technical mess. Hence why the masses avoid it.

We tolerate them to a certain degree.

Palworld says hi. And tons of other broken releases.

Full price was the issue for the game.

 

[Fredrik]

The only message at this point is make sure your game works and you have multiplatform release.

Why does exclusives still work for Nintendo?
Everybody else seem to get low sales from exclusivity but not Nintendo. Mario Kart 8 has sold over 60 million. Or are sales high just because the hardware has sold more and the percentage is roughly the same?

 

[Mr Hyde]

I'm getting Rise of the Ronin when it's on sale. Curious about Wo Long but if it's too much like Nioh I think I'll pass since I thought it was repetitive and boring.

 

[Denton]

These games are not that great and are technical shitshows so no surprise

 

[cireza]

I loved Wo Long, but none of these games looked like they were going to be huge hits anyway. And I say this as a big supporter of Koei Tecmo.

Either they can be profitable with games like these and 2 millions sales, either they have to make other games.

Where are the new entries for Dead or Alive and Ninja Gaiden already ? At least Dynasty Warriors is coming back, locking forward to it.

 

[BennyBlanco]

Wo Long is sucha weird game. The peak was the very first boss. I think the best modern Team Ninja game outside Nioh 2 is Stranger of Paradise.

 

[thief183]

I still don't understand the hate for wo long, I had a lot of fun with it, it was not nioh 2, but still a nice change of pace. Can't wait for ronin on pc

 

[Gaiff]

Why does exclusives still work for Nintendo?
Everybody else seem to get low sales from exclusivity but not Nintendo. Mario Kart 8 has sold over 60 million. Or are sales high just because the hardware has sold more and the percentage is roughly the same?

Nintendo’s’ brand power is the strongest by far and is right now stronger than it’s ever been. Their budgets are also probably much smaller.

 

[Angry_Megalodon]

Why does exclusives still work for Nintendo?
Everybody else seem to get low sales from exclusivity but not Nintendo. Mario Kart 8 has sold over 60 million. Or are sales high just because the hardware has sold more and the percentage is roughly the same?

¿By "exclusives" you mean other than the 4 huge Nintendo IPs, like Mario, Zelda, Pokemon? Those are comparable to nothing else. Take Metroid or Bayonetta instead for a fair comparison.

Good exclusives sell well. Sony has had huge success like Helldivers 2 and a success like Stellar Blade this very year.

There's something wrong with this news, anyway:

PS5 Exclusive Rise of the Ronin Is Koei Tecmo's Best-Selling Game

Put to the sword

www.pushsquare.com

 

[Shut0wen]

Wild hearts isnt that bad, again it was never gunna do monster hunter numbers but wolong and rise both suffered from being exclusives, third party publishers doing exclusives this gen seem to crush them

 

[BennyBlanco]

Why does exclusives still work for Nintendo?
Everybody else seem to get low sales from exclusivity but not Nintendo. Mario Kart 8 has sold over 60 million. Or are sales high just because the hardware has sold more and the percentage is roughly the same?

Nintendo has the strongest first party and most popular IPs by a country mile. Switch is about to be the highest selling console ever and was nearly entirely carried by their first party output.

 

[MagiusNecros]

Why does exclusives still work for Nintendo?
Everybody else seem to get low sales from exclusivity but not Nintendo. Mario Kart 8 has sold over 60 million. Or are sales high just because the hardware has sold more and the percentage is roughly the same?

Because it's Mario

 

[Gaiff]

¿By "exclusives" you mean other than the 4 huge Nintendo IPs, like Mario, Zelda, Pokemon?

Splatoon, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros, Kirby, Fire Emblem, Pikmon, Ring Fit, and the list goes on.

Nintendo games don’t need to sell 10 million copies to recoup their $300M budgets.

 

[Fredrik]

Sony has had huge success like Helldivers 2

It’s on PC too where it has sold the most going by earlier reports.

¿By "exclusives" you mean other than the 4 huge Nintendo IPs, like Mario, Zelda, Pokemon? Those are comparable to nothing else. Take Metroid or Bayonetta instead for a fair comparison.

Fair point, I googled on Metroid Dread and it had sold 3m copies. Was still the best-selling Metroid game.

 

[BennyBlanco]

Splatoon, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros, Kirby, Fire Emblem, Pikmon, Ring Fit, and the list goes on.

Nintendo games don’t need to sell 10 million copies to recoup their $300M budgets.

Plus they actually give you a nice variety of genres. Sony hasn’t made a JRPG in like 20 years and Nintendo has kept Fire Emblem going all these years and made Xenoblade into a big franchise. Even when they take a swing and a miss like Arms it doesn’t really matter because as you said these games don’t cost 200M+ to make so they can afford to get weird. Nintendo rules.

 

[Danny Dudekisser]

I don't think it's surprising when their sales expectations are so high. They threw more money than usual to develop what's still, despite the nice window dressing, a niche game. This is the result.

I haven't bothered with any of them because of the price tag. They're on my wishlist, but I'm basically just waiting for a sale.

 

[Esca]

That's a shame, I really liked wild hearts

 

[Kokoloko85]

When Ronin is your fastest selling game and its still not reaching targets then maybe your expectations are the problem. Seems similar to Squares issue, unrealistic expectations.

Plus this isnt something official is it, just an analysis?

 

[vaibhavpisal]

I think they need From Soft art style to make a break out hit.

Historical settings with Team Ninja writing and stories will take them nowhere.

 

[Lorianus]

Let's make a Fate game but lets not make it take place in Fate Stay/Night or Grand Order, has to be really a stupid idea, who really in the masses cares about Fate if there is no Saber, Gilgamesh, Ishtar ect. ?

 

[Morrie’s wig shop]

Here’s a novel idea…… lower your sales target

How much do these fucking people get paid to say this is the target

 

[Kokoloko85]

The only message at this point is make sure your game works and you have multiplatform release.

Why does exclusives still work for Nintendo?
Everybody else seem to get low sales from exclusivity but not Nintendo. Mario Kart 8 has sold over 60 million. Or are sales high just because the hardware has sold more and the percentage is roughly the same?

Pretty sure Playstation has multiple titles that sold 5-10+ million.
Exclusives still sell

 

[tusharngf]

Wo long was boring and repetitive. Map design sucks for all team ninja games

 

[Celcius]

Give us Dead or Alive and Ninja Gaiden

 

[Fredrik]

Give us Dead or Alive and Ninja Gaiden

Exactly! And no exclusivity deals, make them multiplats like Elden Ring, they would break all sales records.
And no modern audience tweaks of clothes and bodies!!

 

[Chukhopops]

I don’t get the hate for WoLong. It was a bit too easy but had great build variety, cool boss fights and even a decent story (if you enjoy over the top heroism).

I feel guilty not buying RotR but there was just too much to play. Also KT needs to make more Musou games.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Single player games with unrecognizable IP continue to flounder.

 

[Starbuck2907]

Japanese companies always project a LOT of sales. It’s crazy.

 

[Labadal]

Time for your favorite console manufacturer to buy them up!

 

[Mister Wolf]

Not surprising. They are not a good developer.

 

[kevm3]

I'm surprised all of the gamers who wanted to play a samurai game as an actual Japanese guy didn't rush out to buy Rise of the Ronin

 

[JaksGhost]

I don’t believe his analysis to be 100% true. Did he expect RoTR to meet its 5 million target in the 8 days of availability before the fiscal year ended?

 

[YuLY]

Something to be said about bloated expectations. Ronin, despite being their fastest selling game, still fell under their projected expectations.

It didnt fucking help that it is a console exclusive in 2024...

 

[YuLY]

I'm surprised all of the gamers who wanted to play a samurai game as an actual Japanese guy didn't rush out to buy Rise of the Ronin

They did, it's called Ghost of Tsushima.

 

[feynoob]

Pretty sure Playstation has multiple titles that sold 5-10+ million.
Exclusives still sell

That is brand loyal. doesnt exist for other companies.
Unless you are part of the big 5, you will have to hope for 5m+ sales.

 

[Perrott]

Plus they actually give you a nice variety of genres. Sony hasn’t made a JRPG in like 20 years and Nintendo has kept Fire Emblem going all these years and made Xenoblade into a big franchise. Even when they take a swing and a miss like Arms it doesn’t really matter because as you said these games don’t cost 200M+ to make so they can afford to get weird. Nintendo rules.

Xenoblade isn't a big franchise at all. 1.5-3M lifetime sales aren't much given the popularity of the Switch and the overall commercial success of Nintendo first-party efforts, of which the Xenoblade games are some of the most ambitious and expensive to produce I'd say.

 

[Fbh]

Personally I'd like to see some more variety from them.
Loved Nioh 1 and 2 but a lot of their other stuff feels too samey not only in design but in setting too. Stranger of Paradise is the only one where they deviated a bit from the historical asian setting.

Give me Ninja Gaiden or something

Their tech also sucks. I don't need high end graphics, but if your game is going to look like it came out 10-15 years ago it should at least run smoothly with good IQ on modern hardware

 

[Punished Miku]

Give me Ninja Garden

That would definitely be something new and varied