It's pure speculation from an analyst. He's basing their expectations off a quote that said they expect a new ip (before it was announced as RotR) to hit a target of 5M to cover cost. Then he read the financial report that said 2 new titles in 2022 didn't hit targets and he's extending that to all games including RotR and looking at the 5M target. It may or may not hit that target but the game only recently released and there is no direct source for this information in the financial reports. It's only this analysts speculation being reported incorrectly.
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Hideki Yasuda (JP Analyst) - Rise of the Ronin, Wild Hearts, Wo-Long Fallen Dynasty, Fate Samurai Remnant all fell short of Koei Tecmo's sales targets
- Thread starter adamsapple
- Start date
nial
Gold Member
For a hardcore Japanese action RPG, that is also a new IP, selling at $70? After 2 months?
Fredrik
Member
Well yeah. People are screaming for more hardcore japanese games and new IPs and it’s Team Ninja and also an exclusive which usually pull all fans in to hype it up on social.
1.5m in 2024 is essentially like 500k in 2021.
nial
Gold Member
Whole post is some ? stuff, but stop now.
Fredrik
Member
nial
Gold Member
The hardcore audience for a title like Ronin is much more bound to be early adopters of a PlayStation console, it would have done very similar numbers in 2021.1.5m / 60m = 2.5%
500k / 20m = 2.5%
Esppiral
Member
It is exclusive, how dare you say that?
Rhazer Fusion
Member
Their sales expectations are way too high and there is too much competition. Didn’t Rise of the Ronin come out at the same time as Dragons Dogma 2 and near another high profile game for example? I really like the TecmoKoei Nioh-style games and got them all, but imo they need to bring back Ninja Gaiden and Dead or Alive with an admirable budget. They abandoned those franchises unfortunately. Also, besides maybe PC, I don’t think multiplatform would have did any miracles for any of these game’s sales.
Fredrik
Member
Or it would’ve done like Returnal in 2021, 500k. We can only speculate. Either way it’s easy to understand that KT expected more, it’s not like people go around thinking the big PS userbase is mostly casuals now.
Aion002
Member
Nioh 1 and 2 were released on ps4 and ps5 and sold only 7 million units combined by 2023. 1.5 million units in 3 months only on PS5 for Rise of the Ronin is phenomenal.
KT never reached those sales so fast before according to them. I love KT games, but their games are niche. The Playstation exclusivity is easily justifiable, they need Sony's money and help.
kazuyamishima
Member
For the type of game, 1.5m after 2 months is alright.
But if we’re using your comparison, Astral Chain and Bayonetta 3 with their barely just about 1m. units each on a 140m baseline must feel awful then.
Fredrik
Member
I think it would’ve helped a lot to be on Steam. Could still be published by Sony, PS5+PC is a thing now.
In general exclusivity don’t do much good for 3rd party devs unless they codevelop games and get proper big budget marketing and maximum exposure, and even then I think it’s mostly a bad idea.
Exclusivity can increase hype and general positivity, that’s the upside. But it goes both ways, it will also increase negativity.
Fredrik
Member
Switch wasn’t at 140m then but absolutely. A bigger userbase should bring in more sales. Otherwise, what’s the point releasing games on a bigger userbase or doing cross-gen versions?
Aion002
Member
Definitely, exclusivity is bad for games sales and consumers... But Sony likes it, same thing with FFVII Rebirth and FFXVI, if the were also released at day one on pc, sales would definitely be better.
The Cockatrice
Banned
Fredrik
Member
Yeah can’t see Square Enix do any more exclusivity deals after they’re done with FF7, which I assume they’re contracted to do. We’ll see then how things are going.
Nothing can be taken for granted though, there needs to be genuine game hype when there is no free hype just because platform fans are excited about the exclusivity.
Seems like MS will try the waters there going forward. This year’s releases will likely be PC+Xbox exclusive but 2025 they could start going full 3rd party and then the talk will change drastically.
ProtoByte
Gold Member
Exclusivity is the only reason the FF7 project and XVI have panned out the way they have.
People keep on blaming the exclusivity as if sales would've doubled if they put it on PC. There's literally 0 data to support anything like that hypothesis.
Here's the truth: Japanese publishers are looking at their western counterparts and handful of their domestic peers, and deciding that they want to reach a higher ceiling of success than what they're at now. The only thing they're missing is that the way they go about making games is why they are not and will not as long as they keep it up.
Aion002
Member
Helldivers 2...
Over half of Helldivers 2 sales have been on PC in the US: 'Already the 7th highest grossing Sony published game in history'
Helldivers 2 is already a bigger success in the US than Horizon and The Last of Us.
But... Yeah... Gaas vs jrpg... Or whatever argument... Sure....
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ProtoByte
Gold Member
Uh, yeah? LmaoHelldivers 2...
Over half of Helldivers 2 sales have been on PC in the US: 'Already the 7th highest grossing Sony published game in history'
Helldivers 2 is already a bigger success in the US than Horizon and The Last of Us.www.pcgamer.com
But... Yeah... Gaas vs jrpg... Or whatever argument... Sure....
Different platforms have different audience tendencies. How well did the last Tales of or Persona 3 Reload, or even REmake4 or anything like that do on PC? Hint hint; lower than you probably think.
Unrivaledx88
Member
Has nothing to do with it being exclusive .
I think we are all just burnt out from this type of game .
fart town usa
Member
Exactly.
fart town usa
Member
You'd think that but people aren't though. They say they are and will dog pile games that are too much like such and such game and then the same people complaining will rush out and buy the hyped up game they claim they hate.
It's an endless cycle.
nial
Gold Member
Bringing up exclusivity here is pointless when Koei Tecmo didn't have to spend a single cent on development and marketing budget for Rise of the Ronin.
Very different audiences, move on.
Buddy Mission Bond is a digital comic adventure from Ruby Party which in itself is a fairly niche genre.
Expecting it to do big sales figures is the actual funny part.
If that was the case then Koei Tecmo wouldn't fully own the IP as it is known they do.
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nial
Gold Member
No one expected that, but fortunately, Ruby Party found a vastly bigger success with Touken Ranbu Musou (DMM) a year later.
They probably had some money put into the project, who knows? It was probably part of their deal, and Koei Tecmo likely had some leverage due to being a bigger publisher than the likes of Acquire. What I know, though, is that SIE has more power with the project as a whole, and it isn't the first time that they produced games on IPs they have no ownership of (see Popolocrois Monogatari).
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Fredrik
Member
How are you defining those ”very different audiences” within the hardcore audience?
The games aren’t the same but I was definitely assuming that they would both be interesting to all hardcore gamers who like first party published games and specifically hardcore games and new IPs.
nial
Gold Member
Huh, Japanese open world action-RPG, set during 19th century Japan, and Finnish psychological horror, roguelike third-person shooter...?
Yes, hardcore audiences can vary depending on the type of game, and a roguelike TPS is bound to have a much more niche following (especially on consoles) compared to an open world action RPG.
Returnal is not going to appeal to the average Dark Souls player just because it's hard.
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TerribleAtThisGame
Member
Wo Long's demo was the proof in the pudding for me that they'll keep cranking out games with terrible level design. Nioh was fun because of the combat system but heavily flawed for me because of the shitty, repetitive level and encounter design and loot vomit nonsense. Nioh 2 doubled down on all the things I had issues with and fixed none of it. Just more STUFF. Wo Long's demo made me check out of Team Ninja games completely. I already didn't buy Nioh 2 for those reason, only played it because of PS+.
I think they're great at combat and suck at everything else. A far cry from NG: Black but then again that was ages ago now. Rise... made me roll my eyes.
I think they're great at combat and suck at everything else. A far cry from NG: Black but then again that was ages ago now. Rise... made me roll my eyes.
IAmRei
Member
Still better than tsushima, imo, in artstyle. At least their female face is better. And i can make better character face as well there.
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nial
Gold Member
And despite that, Rise of the Ronin managed to outsell the PS5 version of Dragon's Dogma 2 by a vast amount in Japan.
The latter did better globally overall, but this take has always weirded me out because it's not like DD2 is some kind of huge blockbuster that was eating everything along the way.
balls of snow
Member
Xbox may have won afterall.
Popolocrois IP existed before the PS1 videogame published by SCE was released (it was based on a manga, not an original creation).
If, as you suggested previously, SIE funded everything in the creation of RotR then there is no chance the IP (which is new) was fully owned by Koei, thinking otherwhise would mean considering SIE a bunch of idiots.
No one fully fund a new IP to not own anything of said new IP.
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nial
Gold Member
That's true! However, even if it we're talking about a 50/50 funded-project, KT did not have to spend anything on other expenses, such as marketing, publishing/distribution, QA, localization services, etc.
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TrebleShot
Gold Member
Last couple of days ive tried ROR and it was fucking rubbish, dropped it like a hot potato and played some Diablo 4 / Crew Motorfest instead.
SEGAvangelist
Member
If only they had a based franchise or 2 that could make waves in the current social climate...