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[jmls1121]

I will say ZombiU was cool, but it just seemed like a title that would release in the summer. Similar to Shadows of the Damned where it looks great and is pretty fun, but doesnt really feel like anything that would make you want to buy that system.

PS4 and Xbox One both look like they'll have interesting futures, but Nintendo still has a really good chance to turn things around leading into the holiday. Both systems really dont have anything that interesting at launch aside from improved third party titles (Infamous and Killzone look pretty cool, dunno what Xbox One is launching with since Titanfall is down the line), so they should go for a huge marketing push.

Seriously though, Nintendo needs to start pulling out some high quality, interesting commercials for its exclusives. And yes, moneyhat some exclusive developed titles and put serious marketing behind those too (did ZombiU even have commercials? Probably was too niche to really drive sales anyway).

A good and reasonable post. Nintendo's biggest problem was marketing and game delays due to the transition to HD. I have a feeling the Wii U will do much better than the naysayers believe once the games start rolling out. Remember these were the same people declaring the 3DS dead as well.

 

[AzaK]

I will say ZombiU was cool, but it just seemed like a title that would release in the summer. Similar to Shadows of the Damned where it looks great and is pretty fun, but doesnt really feel like anything that would make you want to buy that system.

PS4 and Xbox One both look like they'll have interesting futures, but Nintendo still has a really good chance to turn things around leading into the holiday. Both systems really dont have anything that interesting at launch aside from improved third party titles (Infamous and Killzone look pretty cool, dunno what Xbox One is launching with since Titanfall is down the line...Dead Rising 3 probably isnt going to move systems), so they should go for a huge marketing push.

Seriously though, Nintendo needs to start pulling out some high quality, interesting commercials for its exclusives. And yes, moneyhat some exclusive developed titles and put serious marketing behind those too (did ZombiU even have commercials? Probably was too niche to really drive sales anyway).

Nintendo has a chance, but it looks like we know the hand they'll be playing and I'm still worried. I don't see Wonderful 101 or Bayonetta 2 moving mountains of systems. DKC and SM3DW will move a portion I think - in the sense that it will get the Nintendo fan who's holding off to finally bite the bullet. Still, it won't be stratospheric, but just the start of a slow gathering snowball. Mario Kart might have had the chance, but it's not a Christmas release which I think is a bad move. I think the pull of MK is far greater than SM3DW and DKC and Christmas is when everyone is spending up large.

Overall, Nintendo can only really go up from where they are now but I don't see that their immediate future lineup is going to gain them a huge amount of momentum. They need to get themselves into a 3DS mode and that will require lots more 3rd party support. IN the end I'm still seeing Wii U as a small step up from GameCube in sales. This will be fine for Nintendo, but not satisfactory for me as a gamer. Small install base means less third party support which means less money I spend on their console.

 

[lwilliams3]

I'm calling it, the Wii U will be the next Dreamcast.

Heh, I can't wait till Nintendo begins to revive the Wii U so that we can finally move on from that flawed comparison.

 

[liger05]

A good and reasonable post. Nintendo's biggest problem was marketing and game delays due to the transition to HD. I have a feeling the Wii U will do much better than the naysayers believe once the games start rolling out. Remember these were the same people declaring the 3DS dead as well.

There is no doubt it will do much better but look where it is right now. Lets say it started to do 150 - 200k a month in the US and 100k a month in Japan then yes it would be greatly improved on what its doing right now however would that be a good number?

 

[Snowden's Secret]

Very very worst case scenario, Nintendo ends up having to position Wii U as the Smash Bros/Mario Kart companion console, since all (most?) traditional players will pick it up for one or both of those.

Everyone still makes money in this scenario; Nintendo on hardware/software/royalties, third parties on smart software decisions (exclusive mid budget games like Bayonetta, ports of popular multiplats a la CoD Wii).

Granted, ZombiU should have been profitable in this scenario, but I still feel like we're missing a piece of that puzzle.

 

[phosphor112]

I predict—and I say this as a long-time Nintendo fanboy—that Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze, watch_dogs, Assassin's Creed IV will not cause consumers to go out and buy a Wii U and that Super Mario 3D World will only provide a short-term increase in sales.

[...]

Nintendo's only solution now is to hold off on the Wii U, as they did with Gamecube, as they prepare their Nintendo Revolution 2.

Great post.

 

[TreasureHunterG]

Nintendo's only solution now is to hold off on the Wii U, as they did with Gamecube, as they prepare their Nintendo Revolution 2.

For Nintendo's own sake, they shouldn't do this. Sega killed the Saturn prematurely because they believed it was a mistake and brought the Dreamcast a few years after they pull off the Saturn's plug (in US and EU) and accepted as a failure. That took a massive damage to the Sega brand's reputation, hence Dreamcast was another failure and Sega went third-party. If Nintendo do the same, consumer credibility will take a huge blow they might never recover. Even if they release a new system (a Nintendo Revolution 2 as you say), Nintendo will carry the curse from WiiU's failure and nobody will trust them, no matter how innovative and unique the system would be. No support from costumers, neither third-parties, like what happened with Dreamcast.

WiiU still have a chance. PS4/X1 aren't yet released, they can still manage to drop the price and can rely on their software sales to boost the hardware.

Premature killing off a machine is never, ever a good idea, unless there's no other possibility.

 

[Boy Wander]

Iwata is right in that 3rd parties will only come back if hardware sales pick up. Problem is i think he overestimates how much 1st party software will drive sales, especially in the west.

 

[liger05]

For Nintendo's own sake, they shouldn't do this. Sega killed the Saturn prematurely because they believed it was a mistake and brought the Dreamcast a few years after they pull off the Saturn's plug (in US and EU) and accepted as a failure. That took a massive damage to the Sega brand's reputation, hence Dreamcast was another failure and Sega went third-party. If Nintendo do the same, consumer credibility will take a huge blow they might never recover. Even if they release a new system (a Nintendo Revolution 2 as you say), Nintendo will carry the curse from WiiU's failure and nobody will trust them, no matter how innovative and unique the system would be. No support from costumers, neither third-parties, like what happened with Dreamcast.

WiiU still have a chance. PS4/X1 aren't yet released, they can still manage to drop the price and can rely on their software sales to boost the hardware.

Premature killing off a machine is never, ever a good idea, unless there's no other possibility.

What is seen as premature? Would a 3 year lifespan be too early.

 

[SmokedMeat]

:lol

FPS games are huge in the west, but not on Nintendo platforms. I somehow doubt Titanfall exclusivity would change that - especially when there are many more shooters with established communities in both the Playstation and X Box ecosystem.

That "but not on Nintendo platforms" is exactly what Nintendo needs to change! Have we forgotten Goldeneye?
I think it would be a big draw if they had a killer exclusive online multiplayer shooter. Teeth would gnash, but they have to change that image. It would compliment Bayonetta nicely as a system looking to bring in the core gamer. But they couldn't stop there, they'd have to keep funding new iterations of the games the core gamers loves.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

It's physically impossible to not be pessimistic about the Wii U.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

That "but not on Nintendo platforms" is exactly what Nintendo needs to change! Have we forgotten Goldeneye?
I think it would be a big draw if they had a killer exclusive online multiplayer shooter. Teeth would gnash, but they have to change that image. It would compliment Bayonetta nicely as a system looking to bring in the core gamer. But they couldn't stop there, they'd have to keep funding new iterations of the games the core gamers loves.

Goldeneye? You mean when online console gaming didn't exist? The market is different now because of that. It's much more difficult to convince people to switch when they are already heavily invested in one platform, via either friends that play or trophies/achievements (because this matters to some people for whatever reason)

 

[Mysterious]

For Nintendo's own sake, they shouldn't do this. Sega killed the Saturn prematurely because they believed it was a mistake and brought the Dreamcast a few years after they pull off the Saturn's plug (in US and EU) and accepted as a failure. That took a massive damage to the Sega brand's reputation, hence Dreamcast was another failure and Sega went third-party. If Nintendo do the same, consumer credibility will take a huge blow they might never recover. Even if they release a new system (a Nintendo Revolution 2 as you say), Nintendo will carry the curse from WiiU's failure and nobody will trust them, no matter how innovative and unique the system would be. No support from costumers, neither third-parties, like what happened with Dreamcast.

WiiU still have a chance. PS4/X1 aren't yet released, they can still manage to drop the price and can rely on their software sales to boost the hardware.

Premature killing off a machine is never, ever a good idea, unless there's no other possibility.

Which is why I said:

Nintendo's only solution now is to hold off on the Wii U, as they did with Gamecube, as they prepare their Nintendo Revolution 2.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

It's physically impossible to not be pessimistic about the Wii U.

Physically? lol you losing sleep or something?

 

[Guevara]

With the exception of the Wii, every Nintendo home console has sold worse than its predecessor:

NES - 62m
SNES - 50m
N64 - 33m
GC - 22m
-----
Wii U - 16-18m?

If you think of the Wii as an outlier I think Nintendo is finding the floor of people who want to play just Nintendo games and are willing to pay $300 for it.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

With the exception of the Wii, every Nintendo home console has sold worse than its predecessor:

NES - 62m
SNES - 50m
N64 - 33m
GC - 22m
-----
Wii U - 16-18m?

If you think of the Wii as an outlier I think Nintendo is finding the floor of people who want to play just Nintendo games and are willing to pay $300 for it.

Do you think that the Wii and DS hasn't expanded the audience for Nintendo games?

 

[Mysterious]

Do you think that the Wii and DS hasn't expanded the audience for Nintendo games?

I agree with you. But you cannot find an equally paradigm-shifting experience on Wii U/3DS.

There is an expansion of the Nintendogs, Brain Age, Just Dance Wii Fit, etc. experiences, but they are not compelling enough to invest $169/$299 in another platform. For most, the Wii/DS games are "good enough".

I actually think Nintendo did not lose its "casual" audience at all. Anecdotal, but I know a lot of these players who still use their Wii for Just Dance. But Just Dance and Wii Fit U on Wii U does not have a must-have feature that is compelling enough to buy a Wii U. No, the Gamepad is not compelling for these users.

If Nintendo had "reinvented" the Wii Remote to be something even more magical (think along the lines of Wii Remote -> Kinect), I suspect many of these players would have bought a Wii U.

Just my two cents.

 

[Guevara]

Do you think that the Wii and DS hasn't expanded the audience for Nintendo games?

Handhelds are another story, but no I think the Wii was a bubble basically. The overall trend with home console sales is clear.

For handhelds there's no such trend:

Gameboy (and Color/etc) 118.69m
GBA (all models) 81.51m
DS 153.87m
3DS 31.09m to date; probably more like 80m than 153m when discontinued.

 

[Heyt]

Do you think that the Wii and DS hasn't expanded the audience for Nintendo games?

My mother played brain training, my sister bought Wii Fit.

None of them is looking forward to Pikmin 3 or aware of it's existence.

The expanded audience that provided 3/4 of the Wii sales are not loyal customers.

 

[airmangataosenai]

With the exception of the Wii, every Nintendo home console has sold worse than its predecessor:

NES - 62m
SNES - 50m
N64 - 33m
GC - 22m
-----
Wii U - 16-18m?

If you think of the Wii as an outlier I think Nintendo is finding the floor of people who want to play just Nintendo games and are willing to pay $300 for it.

I agree that 15-18 million is probably a reasonable estimate, but even that ends up being slightly optimistic. I'd say the range could be anywhere from 10 million on the low-end to 20 million on the (Extreme, super optimistic) high.end. Hitting 15 million at this point would run on the contingent that Mario Kart can move a ton of units, I don't see 3D World and Donkey Kong getting Nintendo to sales even on par with what the Wii U saw in 2012.

Handhelds are another story, but no I think the Wii was a bubble basically. The overall trend with home console sales is clear.

For handhelds there's no such trend:

Gameboy (and Color/etc) 118.69m
GBA (all models) 81.51m
DS 153.87m
3DS 31.09m to date; probably more like 80m than 153m when discontinued.

Make no mistake, the GBA was tracking to surpass the GB/GBC by a longshot. Nintendo killed the product line to save the DS because it was initially struggling to gain traction.

 

[scitek]

The Wii U needs to come with a Wiimote and stress it's backward compatibility as a selling point over the competition. Also, off-TV play is a feature I think would appeal to many casual players, but I don't think they'll ever realize it.

 

[Huff]

Do you think that the Wii and DS hasn't expanded the audience for Nintendo games?

so far the answer is a resounding no

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

My mother played brain training, my sister bought Wii Fit.

None of them is looking forward to Pikmin 3 or aware of it's existence.

The expanded audience that provided 3/4 of the Wii sales are not loyal customers.

Why would either of them be interested in Pikmin 3 - a franchise that wasn't on the Wii except for two remakes?

I'm talking about Mario Kart, etc Nintendo games that sold a lot (on both the DS and Wii). I'm not sure how you even interpreted that I was talking about Pikmin in the first place.

so far the answer is a resounding no

Well, yeah, because there's virtually no Nintendo games on the system. Not surprising

Handhelds are another story, but no I think the Wii was a bubble basically. The overall trend with home console sales is clear.

It's clear, except for the last console they released

I'm not even sure why you think handhelds are another story. The Wii was a bubble but the DS wasn't? How do you justify that?

 

[Poimandres]

Very very worst case scenario, Nintendo ends up having to position Wii U as the Smash Bros/Mario Kart companion console, since all (most?) traditional players will pick it up for one or both of those.

Yeah... you're overestimating the appeal of those franchises. A good many traditional players don't care about either.

 

[Guevara]

Yeah... you're overestimating the appeal of those franchises. A good many traditional players don't care about either.

Also if these games are all you care about you can play them on a 3DS for less. I think the decision to put SSB on the 3DS will prove to be a bit double edged.

 

[lwilliams3]

Also if these games are all you care about you can play them on a 3DS for less. I think the decision to put SSB on the 3DS will prove to be a bit double edged.

They are not the quite the same game. It's not like a PS crossplay relationship. There is a difference.

 

[evilromero]

GTAV timed exclusivity would have been huge. And I'm sure it wouldn't have cost Nintendo too much in the end. The publicity alone would be worth it.

 

[cafemomo]

GTAV timed exclusivity would have been huge. And I'm sure it wouldn't have cost Nintendo too much in the end. The publicity alone would be worth it.

R*/T2 will never fall into Nintendo's moneyhatting tricks.

 

[Frodo]

R*/T2 will never fall into Nintendo's moneyhatting tricks.

Mostly because Nintendo has no interest to moneyhat timed exclusives. Unfortunately...

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Well, yeah, because there's virtually no Nintendo games on the system. Not surprising

I know this is beating a dead horse, here. However, I do think it's worth noting that the console did launch with a successor to a 28 million selling core franchise in the form of New Super Mario Bros. Mind you, I'm not terribly interested in going down the "is that a legit system seller or just a game that sells to people that buy the system for other titles?" road again, as it's kind of pointless. I'm content to wait and see what happens. I'm skeptical that 3D Mario and Mario Kart will provide the turnaround some suspect, but for the most part I feel like most have already said their piece.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

I know this is beating a dead horse, here. However, I do think it's worth noting that the console did launch with a successor to a 28 million selling core franchise in the form of New Super Mario Bros. Mind you, I'm not terribly interested in going down the "is that a legit system seller or just a game that sells to people that buy the system for other titles?" road again, as it's kind of pointless. I'm content to wait and see what happens. I'm skeptical that 3D Mario and Mario Kart will provide the turnaround some suspect, but for the most part I feel like most have already said their piece.

Right. I'm really just skeptical of the claim that a single game (apart from once-in-a-lifetime games like Wii Sports) can even be a "system seller." There are certainly games that people look forward to more than others, but I think most people look at a system library holistically. So a Wii U with just New Super Mario Bros U is going to look very different to prospective buyers than one with that, Super Mario 3D World, and Mario Kart available. Will that be enough? I have no idea - I certainly think it could be! But it also could very well not be. It's ultimately up to how Nintendo chooses to proceed in its marketing and price choices this holiday (as well as if the games are good).

I also think it's good idea to wait what happens after this holiday. I think Nintendo has games that are very marketable in a family-friendly, local multiplayer-focused way. Their competition isn't really trying to do this and offers a much more online-focused experience. The two are very different from one another and this gives Nintendo an opening, in my opinion.

Clearly, Nintendo has attempted to aim for both the family market and the core gamer market. They're probably going to have to realize soon that they probably can't have both. And because their competitors are focusing heavily on the latter, I think it's probably a good idea if they aim for the former instead. A lot of people - core gamers mostly -don't want to hear that though.

 

[I am Michael Bolton]

A good and reasonable post. Nintendo's biggest problem was marketing and game delays due to the transition to HD. I have a feeling the Wii U will do much better than the naysayers believe once the games start rolling out. Remember these were the same people declaring the 3DS dead as well.

1. As has been repeated ad nausea, the console market isn't the same as handhelds.
2. The 3DS isnt selling that well in the West.
3. The GC had big Nintendo first party games and look how that did. The Wii U will make Nintendo a profit one day while it becomes a colossal failure in every other category. The Wii U isn't coming back.

 

[AzaK]

Right. I'm really just skeptical of the claim that a single game (apart from once-in-a-lifetime games like Wii Sports) can even be a "system seller." There are certainly games that people look forward to more than others, but I think most people look at a system library holistically.

Whilst I tend to agree, there's little difference to how I perceive it. I think that there are system sellers for many people, in the sense that there are titles that might push them over the edge. It's just that a console needs lots of system sellers for lots of different people if it's not a mainstream hit like Wii Sports. For me it's Zelda. For someone else it might be SM3DW or Pikmin. Nintendo need to just start regularly churning out games and then I think the aggregate number of owners will grow 0 just like the 3DS. Those owners will then pick up other games they love, or are interested in.

So basically I agree that it's a holistically based decision but with a tipping point/heavier weighted title. That to me is the "system seller".

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Right. I'm really just skeptical of the claim that a single game (apart from once-in-a-lifetime games like Wii Sports) can even be a "system seller." There are certainly games that people look forward to more than others, but I think most people look at a system library holistically. So a Wii U with just New Super Mario Bros U is going to look very different to prospective buyers than one with that, Super Mario 3D World, and Mario Kart available. Will that be enough? I have no idea - I certainly think it could be! But it also could very well not be. It's ultimately up to how Nintendo chooses to proceed in its marketing and price choices this holiday (as well as if the games are good).

I also think it's good idea to wait what happens after this holiday. I think Nintendo has games that are very marketable in a family-friendly, local multiplayer-focused way. Their competition isn't really trying to do this and offers a much more online-focused experience. The two are very different from one another and this gives Nintendo an opening, in my opinion.

Clearly, Nintendo has attempted to aim for both the family market and the core gamer market. They're probably going to have to realize soon that they probably can't have both. And because their competitors are focusing heavily on the latter, I think it's probably a good idea if they aim for the former instead. A lot of people - core gamers mostly -don't want to hear that though.

Yeah. Honestly, I've never completely given up on the possibility that there's a chance that they can price and market the Wii U in just the right way to carve out a successful niche, if not outright turn the platform into a legitimate success. However, I do tend to think that a completely neutral stance is rather boring, so in the event that you make me pick the over/under on middle-of-the-road projections, I'll take the under with the understanding that I'll take my crow well done if it comes to that.

In the mean time, I look forward to Pikmin 3 next month.

 

[Cheerilee]

I think Nintendo did not loose money wit the gamecube. I think there is a chart out there that shows that they made more money in the gamecube years than what Sony did with the PS2. If someone could elaborate it would be great please.

Sony lost money on PS2 hardware (but made it back and then some on software). When they reached the break-even point, they would generally drop the price and continue to lose money on hardware.

The GameCube started out at a break-even price (despite being significantly cheaper than their competitors), and then earned money as costs came down. When they were pushed to drop the price, they only ever dropped it to the break-even point (roughly), and continued to make money on hardware and software. And if the software was a first-party title (as many GameCube games were), Nintendo double-dipped as both a console maker and a game publisher. Combined with hardware profits, Nintendo was basically triple-dipping, and so the GameCube was very profitable.

Xbox was basically dragged along by trying to keep up with the PS2's pricing, and never really broke even on hardware, but Microsoft considered it an investment to get their foot in the door of the industry.


Nintendo's triple-dipping earned them a lot of money per-console, but Sony's massive popularity made them the winners. Wii U is losing money on hardware. Nintendo's third party game sales are at an all-time low. Are Wii U's first party games selling okay?

 

[Basketball]

cut from BlackB0nd... Full 50 min video in the annotations

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T7FKOiTP_U

 

[royalan]

cut from BlackB0nd... Full 50 min video in the annotations

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T7FKOiTP_U

Someone, make the thread.

 

[StevieP]

GTAV timed exclusivity would have been huge. And I'm sure it wouldn't have cost Nintendo too much in the end. The publicity alone would be worth it.

It would cost a hell of a lot more than any console manufacturer is willing to pay, actually. It would never happen.

 

[PdotMichael]

Goldeneye? You mean when online console gaming didn't exist? The market is different now because of that. It's much more difficult to convince people to switch when they are already heavily invested in one platform, via either friends that play or trophies/achievements (because this matters to some people for whatever reason)

Are you trying to say it's hopeless for the Wii U and Nintendo shouldn't even try to get the biggest part of the gamer community on the Wii U?
Some shooters for the WiiU sounds more reasonable than trying to turn the tables with different kinds of 2D plattformers.

 

[IrishNinja]

For Nintendo's own sake, they shouldn't do this. Sega killed the Saturn prematurely because they believed it was a mistake and brought the Dreamcast a few years after they pull off the Saturn's plug (in US and EU) and accepted as a failure. That took a massive damage to the Sega brand's reputation, hence Dreamcast was another failure and Sega went third-party. If Nintendo do the same, consumer credibility will take a huge blow they might never recover. Even if they release a new system (a Nintendo Revolution 2 as you say), Nintendo will carry the curse from WiiU's failure and nobody will trust them, no matter how innovative and unique the system would be. No support from costumers, neither third-parties, like what happened with Dreamcast.

WiiU still have a chance. PS4/X1 aren't yet released, they can still manage to drop the price and can rely on their software sales to boost the hardware.

Premature killing off a machine is never, ever a good idea, unless there's no other possibility.

we don't always see eye to eye, but as an old school sega fan, this was a good post. DC is as tragically perfect an example as any: they got so much right, and so few burned consumers came back in time to see it.

if things stay the way they are & it ends up gamecube 2.0, you ride it out. you reward the base you've managed to build & as Opiate said, you learn from those mistakes as best you can. GC got what, about 6 years? i'd expect at least 5 at worst.

GTAV timed exclusivity would have been huge. And I'm sure it wouldn't have cost Nintendo too much in the end. The publicity alone would be worth it.

where are you people getting this stuff? GTA V exclusive is in my mind like buying a shit ton of apple stock nowadays: the amount you put up would be so high you wouldn't see the a justifiable return. how would that possibly "not cost them too much in the end"?

 

[I am Michael Bolton]

we don't always see eye to eye, but as an old school sega fan, this was a good post. DC is as tragically perfect an example as any: they got so much right, and so few burned consumers came back in time to see it.

if things stay the way they are & it ends up gamecube 2.0, you ride it out. you reward the base you've managed to build & as Opiate said, you learn from those mistakes as best you can. GC got what, about 6 years? i'd expect at least 5 at worst.



where are you people getting this stuff? GTA V exclusive is in my mind like buying a shit ton of apple stock nowadays: the amount you put up would be so high you wouldn't see the a justifiable return. how would that possibly "not cost them too much in the end"?

Forget exclusivity. Nintendo should have made sure GTA5 was coming to the Wii U. Whats sad is Iwata probably believed it was coming simply because they made the Wii U as powerful as the 360/PS3 in many ways.

 

[royalan]

if things stay the way they are & it ends up gamecube 2.0, you ride it out. you reward the base you've managed to build & as Opiate said, you learn from those mistakes as best you can. GC got what, about 6 years? i'd expect at least 5 at worst.

The Gamecube had 5 years on the market before the Wii in the US, but Nintendo was transitioning their resources and the narrative into the Gamecube's successor well before that.

Personally, I don't think the Gamecube model is a bad one when it comes to riding a failed console. To anyone paying attention, it was clear Nintendo was cutting their losses and switching gears halfway through the Gamecube's lifecycle, but the Gamecube still ended up with a pretty decent lineup when all was said and done. They didn't completely abandon it.

 

[zoukka]

One huge issue is the lack of example by nintendo for online play. None of their 1st party efforts on Wii U have online. Whether it's possible to even have a good online mode in Mario is irrelevant when the atmosphere on Wii U is that you just don't fucking play online period. Modern gamers cannot reverse back to only local multiplayer it's just impossible.

Another thing is the OS. Miiverse is cute, but today fucking 7 year olds use the interent daily so it just feels like a kinderkarten that might've worked a decade ago. I have no interest in messaging my friends because it's slow and cumbersome and what would I even message them for? To come and play nintendo games online with me?

Nintendo doesn't realise how fast technology and the online mentality of people move forward. The time for a kid friendly and safe device seems to be long past now in the avalanche of smartphones and tablets. Nintendo is a dinosaur on the online field and the Wii U will fall because of this.

 

[cyberheater]

cut from BlackB0nd... Full 50 min video in the annotations

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T7FKOiTP_U

Yep. I've made all these points before and got lambasted for it on this board. The guy is right.

 

[cdkee]

There is no killer software on the Wii U for the casual buyer.

Hell, their marketing is terrible. I have friends (we all just graduated college, so 21 y/os mostly), who didn't even KNOW the Wii U was out as a successor to the Wii. That was shocking to me, but then again it wasn't because of Nintendo's brain-dead marketing.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

cut from BlackB0nd... Full 50 min video in the annotations

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T7FKOiTP_U

someone tell me the music pleassee!

 

[IrishNinja]

Forget exclusivity. Nintendo should have made sure GTA5 was coming to the Wii U. Whats sad is Iwata probably believed it was coming simply because they made the Wii U as powerful as the 360/PS3 in many ways.

yeah, that should've been the priority. and i don't doubt he thought that, likely hoping the launch lineup would install such a base...

there's assumptions made on this level that i'll never get - during the 2007 struggle of the PS3, Tretton once made a comment that he didn't want to flood PSN classics, for fear it'd scare away other devs (rather than, you know, get people looking at PSN back when it was a wasteland). I heard almost the same line from Iwata at the poor launch of the 3DS...it's crazy.

The Gamecube had 5 years on the market before the Wii in the US, but Nintendo was transitioning their resources and the narrative into the Gamecube's successor well before that.

Personally, I don't think the Gamecube model is a bad one when it comes to riding a failed console. To anyone paying attention, it was clear Nintendo was cutting their losses and switching gears halfway through the Gamecube's lifecycle, but the Gamecube still ended up with a pretty decent lineup when all was said and done. They didn't completely abandon it.

right, relative to other abandoned systems, i meant - like, Sega would have entire fiscal years with practically nothing on the market, which is insane. as you said, looking back it's obvious that transition was taking place but during that gen, long after the 3rd party gems started to dry up, i still got high quality first party releases, including another zelda closing out the system (granted, delayed to upkick the port, but still).

and relative to what TreasureHunterG was saying, that makes me confident as a consumer to buy (reasonably priced) nintendo products early on: using the GC as their worst-case scenario, i feel my expectations are properly aligned - if literally no one else shows up to make games for it, nintendo will likely provide me with a full gen of offerings that by and large i tend to enjoy, so i know what i'm getting. though just peripherals, sega-CD, 32x etc kinda set the stage, and then watching Saturn bomb & get left to die the way it did rightfully gave many the exact opposite impression. it's like when the PS3 was doing terrible post launch, anyone saying a console should be abandoned early on strikes me as crazy talk.

 

[marc^o^]

I know this is beating a dead horse, here. However, I do think it's worth noting that the console did launch with a successor to a 28 million selling core franchise in the form of New Super Mario Bros. Mind you, I'm not terribly interested in going down the "is that a legit system seller or just a game that sells to people that buy the system for other titles?" road again, as it's kind of pointless. I'm content to wait and see what happens. I'm skeptical that 3D Mario and Mario Kart will provide the turnaround some suspect, but for the most part I feel like most have already said their piece.

You know I have a 7 years old nephew. When he saw NSMBU last december he said, "we've got it on the wii". Two weeks ago I showed him the Mario 3D World trailer and he went nuts, like my girls did, asking his dad for a Wii U. That was prior to playing Artwork in Game & Wario, then it was his mom who asked me Wii U questions for the 1st time in months.

The more Nintendo games get released, the easier it will be to sell this console. This is quite simple. Assuming the console gets more affordable at one point.

 

[Deleted member 125677]

Yeah. Honestly, I've never completely given up on the possibility that there's a chance that they can price and market the Wii U in just the right way to carve out a successful niche, if not outright turn the platform into a legitimate success. However, I do tend to think that a completely neutral stance is rather boring, so in the event that you make me pick the over/under on middle-of-the-road projections, I'll take the under with the understanding that I'll take my crow well done if it comes to that.

In the mean time, I look forward to Pikmin 3 next month.

I think you're right on this. Wii U looks like it will never be a stand-alone console for the masses (does anyone at all have just a Wii U??), but something you'll have on the side of your other console/pc/handheld to play those - hopefully delightful - 1st and 2nd party console titles. And as such it the price needs to be set accordingly, and Nintendo will have to deliver at least a handful of niche hit and critically acclaimed games.

And my Pikmin 3 pre-order is also made!

 

[ASIS]

so far the answer is a resounding no

Just like the PS2 did not expand sony's audience I suppose.