It already is a success in the West... The question is if they can keep up the momentum.
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Jefferies Equity Analyst: Mario Kart 8D a "mega-hit on a different scale altogether"
- Thread starter Cerium
- Start date
right now only Ubisoft and bethesda are western 3rd parties currently onboard, if their games becoming successful then I could see more western developers jumping onboard soon
I think Skyrim specifically will be an important test in that regard, to see how Switch owners respond to a very Western RPG like that. I don't expect a lot of support this year, but hopefully by next year support will be more plentiful.
Therein lies my concern with third parties. I mean this can get away with it because it's Skyrim, but I worry that third parties will test the waters with late ports again which people won't buy because they're late ports.
yeah this, even if Skyrim, nba 2k18 and Fifa sells well, they will mess everything up with lazy late ports
Herb Alpert
Banned
Yep. And I will never understand why. At least this time portability gives a sense to these late ports' existence. But the real test would obviously be a simultaneous release.
Yes this haha. I am happy that people will finally buy the game but it's really no surprise.
Edit: also people shouldnt act like that Zelda wasnt the push for the whole system. I wouldnt know what to play except for Mario Kart now because the Ports are worse than their counterparts on other consoles. I will buy a switch as soon as Smash releases. So I dont want to bring hate in here, but I am not surprised. It's Mario Kart, easy to play anywhere now with colleagues and the next good game for the Switch.
QuixoticNeutral
Member
I'm late to the highly entertaining "starved for games" circus in this thread, but it's worth considering why the Switch is moving software during a fallow period for retail titles, whereas the Wii U never succeeded in doing the same and was in fact sunk by the drought of its first nine months (among other factors). Mario Kart is just Mario Kart, of course, but anecdotally it seems like the conversion rate for people who already owned the game on Wii U is actually quite high, especially given the strong overlap between the Wii U-owning demographic (adherents of first-party Nintendo software) and early adopters of the Switch. It's not unthinkable that this is thanks to the same effect, if on a different order of magnitude, as how people are choosing to pick up Snipperclips, Snake Pass, or the Wonder Boy remakegames that owe their public visibility to their association with the Switch launch period and might otherwise have been buried on a platform with a mature libraryinstead of clearing backlog on their other existing platforms, even given the choice.
The parsimonious answer is this: since one of the core selling points of the Switch is that it creates new opportunities and time slots for video games that didn't previously exist in one's lifestyle (i.e. weren't adequately covered by existing systems, except maybe mobile, where the software is so far away from traditional games that they're practically a different sector altogether), Switch owners are outwardly searching for software to fill that newfound space, and choosing from what is available. The appeal of the hardware itself, the desire to use the hardware for its own sake, is driving sales.
Contrast this with how traditionally, among multi-console owners in particular (especially the doomsayers clamouring for third-party Nintendo for the past two decades), Nintendo hardware was often perceived as an unfortunate cost of admission to the first-party software, a hindrance rather than an attraction. If no big hits landed on the Wii U for months, that didn't come out as a void but a convenience: one less system to keep plugged in, one less HDMI port to occupy, one less input to manage on the remote, one less control scheme to fuss with if you're the kind of heathen acculturated to the Xbox's sacrilegious ABXY layout.
The Switch, meanwhile, cries out to be used, and in many of the circumstances where a user might want it on hand, there isn't a substitute. Many have reported a strange and knowingly irrational reluctance to go back to their 3DS even though it's right there, available, and backlogged to hell.
Under these conditions, Zelda is moving systems and the experience of the system is moving more software. MK8D is unique for residing on both ends of this: it moves systems for those who don't already have MK8 in their lives, and even among existing owners on the Wii U it makes for an appealing follow-up to Zelda in the absence of original titles that are not remasters or ports. It was ideally placed in the calendar. Speaking for myself, I completely wrote off MK8D as superfluous for my personal library before I got my hands on the system, and even then I would have been much more comfortable putting it off if it launched on a platform that already had Arms or Splatoon. So yes, I do believe that people are buying software they might otherwise have skipped for the purpose of giving the Joy-Cons a workout, and that they are choosing to do so in the face of the usual alternative to put away an early-adopted system (or sell it) after the big launch game and go back to clearing backlog for a year. MK8D feeds it; MK8D also reaps the rewards.
Given the circumstances, I expect Minecraft to be as much of an evergreen here as elsewhere (there's a huge, proven double-dip effect with it already, further encouraged by the Switch), and Skyrim, for all its apparent market saturation, should perform respectably depending on what kind of software environment it launches into (and I don't think it will have much competition). This doesn't say anything at all about whether the Switch is fertile ground for the major western publishers generally: a market for Skyrim or (say) GTA V is a market for Skyrim or GTA V, from which nothing useful can be extrapolated for a new multiplatform launch of an untested title, even in an established franchise (CoD, Assassin's Creed, and so on). The audiences for Nintendo and for other platform holders have diverged over multiple generations to the point that crossover successes will probably be anomalous, especially for games that benefit from high specs or 4K more than they do from portable play.
I actually half expect a scenario where Skyrim is a hit, encouraging western publishers to dive headfirst into day-one support for the Switch in 2019 and beyond, only to get burnt when they discover that the Switch is still the third-choice platform for their kind of games and there isn't really a market there for western AAA, just for portable, tried-and-tested, familiar old Skyrim.
The parsimonious answer is this: since one of the core selling points of the Switch is that it creates new opportunities and time slots for video games that didn't previously exist in one's lifestyle (i.e. weren't adequately covered by existing systems, except maybe mobile, where the software is so far away from traditional games that they're practically a different sector altogether), Switch owners are outwardly searching for software to fill that newfound space, and choosing from what is available. The appeal of the hardware itself, the desire to use the hardware for its own sake, is driving sales.
Contrast this with how traditionally, among multi-console owners in particular (especially the doomsayers clamouring for third-party Nintendo for the past two decades), Nintendo hardware was often perceived as an unfortunate cost of admission to the first-party software, a hindrance rather than an attraction. If no big hits landed on the Wii U for months, that didn't come out as a void but a convenience: one less system to keep plugged in, one less HDMI port to occupy, one less input to manage on the remote, one less control scheme to fuss with if you're the kind of heathen acculturated to the Xbox's sacrilegious ABXY layout.
The Switch, meanwhile, cries out to be used, and in many of the circumstances where a user might want it on hand, there isn't a substitute. Many have reported a strange and knowingly irrational reluctance to go back to their 3DS even though it's right there, available, and backlogged to hell.
Under these conditions, Zelda is moving systems and the experience of the system is moving more software. MK8D is unique for residing on both ends of this: it moves systems for those who don't already have MK8 in their lives, and even among existing owners on the Wii U it makes for an appealing follow-up to Zelda in the absence of original titles that are not remasters or ports. It was ideally placed in the calendar. Speaking for myself, I completely wrote off MK8D as superfluous for my personal library before I got my hands on the system, and even then I would have been much more comfortable putting it off if it launched on a platform that already had Arms or Splatoon. So yes, I do believe that people are buying software they might otherwise have skipped for the purpose of giving the Joy-Cons a workout, and that they are choosing to do so in the face of the usual alternative to put away an early-adopted system (or sell it) after the big launch game and go back to clearing backlog for a year. MK8D feeds it; MK8D also reaps the rewards.
Given the circumstances, I expect Minecraft to be as much of an evergreen here as elsewhere (there's a huge, proven double-dip effect with it already, further encouraged by the Switch), and Skyrim, for all its apparent market saturation, should perform respectably depending on what kind of software environment it launches into (and I don't think it will have much competition). This doesn't say anything at all about whether the Switch is fertile ground for the major western publishers generally: a market for Skyrim or (say) GTA V is a market for Skyrim or GTA V, from which nothing useful can be extrapolated for a new multiplatform launch of an untested title, even in an established franchise (CoD, Assassin's Creed, and so on). The audiences for Nintendo and for other platform holders have diverged over multiple generations to the point that crossover successes will probably be anomalous, especially for games that benefit from high specs or 4K more than they do from portable play.
I actually half expect a scenario where Skyrim is a hit, encouraging western publishers to dive headfirst into day-one support for the Switch in 2019 and beyond, only to get burnt when they discover that the Switch is still the third-choice platform for their kind of games and there isn't really a market there for western AAA, just for portable, tried-and-tested, familiar old Skyrim.
I still think the reason no one buys the games is not because they are late or poorly made, but because no one knows they exist because they are not advertised.
Skyrim is a very late port, and honestly I don't think it will sell well. But it's the first portable version of the game... I didn't expect much sales for MK8D, and I was wrong. Anything could happen here.
The one that is late, and has no success possibilities, is Payday 2. Considering how horribly performed the game in consoles, I don't expect good performance this time either. And the game is not that popular to justify it, many gamers don't know this is a thing. Skyrim has never been well optimized either, but it's popular as hell.
Late ports would be fine if they were included with current sequels. There is Dragon Quest Heroes 1-2 pack, there was Bayonetta 1-2 pack... I think this is what most companies should do, it's up to the consumer to decide if playing the old game and the new one, or go straight to the new game.
Agree that anything could happen with Skyrim. It's worth bearing in mind that, unlike a lot of late AAA ports, it's an evergreen title, still appearing in the top 20 for various charts 6 years after the original was released. It's got constant high popularity, high visibility and consumer awareness, on top of Nintendo promoting it. It'll be interesting to see whether the USP of being portable Skyrim will have existing Skyrim fans double-dip, whether it'll just see Nintendo early adopters grab it, or a mix of the two. I think it's releasing at just the right time, after Zelda and before Xenoblade 2.
I think it will, because Skyrim is one of those games that sells well on everything it releases on. Much like GTA5, it's one of those games that people buy with a new console no matter how old the game is. The portability factor sweetens the deal further. I can't see many people turning down Skyrim on the go.
QuixoticNeutral
Member
Yes, and this is why I think Skyrim doesn't stand to tell us anything useful about the viability of third partiessame-day, late ports, whatever. Skyrim is Skyrim. It stands to do better than the more recent Fallout 4 would do in its place, for example. It's not comparable to ME3, Deus Ex: HR, Arkham City, or Assassin's Creed III on Wii U, as acclaimed or popular as they were (never mind Black Flag or Watch_Dogs launching into a void much later when there wasn't any early-adopter effect to benefit from and the target audience had conclusively vanished or preferred to play elsewhere).
Minecraft, Skyrim, and GTA V (not that it's coming) are in a class of their own in reputation, cachet, and player retention, and despite all appearances they still haven't reached the point of audience saturation where everybody who wants to play them has done so. They persist in exceeding expectations in that respect.
Prior to the Switch launch there was a not insignificant level of demand voiced for a port of Mass Effect Andromeda. Notice how that has completely vanished post-release. This, I would argue, is closer to the norm where late ports are concerned: a game hits release, its audience meets it, the hype evaporates. Not everything can be a hit.
The only recent big western title that I would have confidence in performing well as a late port is Overwatch, which I doubt will happen. Everything else is a gamble. Indie developers have a lot more reason to be excited about releasing on the Switch than big western multiplatform publishers do; the demand for them is better established. Stardew Valley will hit like a truck. So would Rocket League if it shows up. I honestly can't say the same for CoD or Assassin's Creed even if their publishers bothered.
MrCookiepants
Member
Honestly. who cares about western third party support. Nintendo doesn't need them. We all have access to their games on other platforms. There's no point discussing it.
I'd rather like to play those games on the go, though. That would be so cool.
This is hitting the nail squarely and forcibly on the head.
QuixoticNeutral
Member
"Nintendo doesn't need them" is the magic bullet Nintendo really needed all these years: a sustainable model for doing without the fickle presence of big western third parties if necessary, without subjecting their audience to the kind of software droughts that drive them off the platform and deter others from jumping in, while still capturing a mass-market mindshare beyond their traditional core.
They finally have it, but I think the unexpected health of their software environment owes a great deal to the presence of a mature indie market that arguably caters to Nintendo audiences far better than the big third parties do. Otherwise the Switch launch really would have been as blank as it looked on paper. That meeting of the right developers with the right players in a confident digital distribution environment did not exist for any Nintendo hardware launch prior to this one, and it makes all the difference. (That, along with the massiveness of BotW, the size of several Zelda games in oneenough to keep the indie/digital-averse very busy.)
Principate
Saint Titanfall
I think Japanese third parties still matter a lot. If you were to take the 3DS and remove all of it's 3rd party games I doubt it would have sold as much as it did. Definitely wouldn't have in Japan as it wouldn't have been able to absorb as much of the PSP's userbase.
QuixoticNeutral
Member
This is true. They still need Monster Hunter/DQ/Yokai down the road, just as they did on the 3DS, or Japanese third parties all go deeper into the mobile hole. And even in the west, I think Bomberman/USF2/Puyo Puyo Tetris give us an accurate picture of what the stable third-party presence at retail will look like in the long term.
Herb Alpert
Banned
You're right. Let's see what they'll do with Skyrim. It was heavily promoted by Nintendo being the most shown game in the october reveal and from then, nothing.
I hope they promote it and don't ask full price for. But I don't hold my breath.
KodeAndGame
Member
to your point, I think evergreen titles are just a more natural fit for Switch. I might want the highest fidelity experience for, say, Tomb Raider but when it comes to Rocket League I really just want to play more if it.
What would be ideal for a game like Skyrim - but it won't happen - is that they add some extras to make the existing fans curious for the Switch version, like an exclusive region+quests, some crumbs to make it more than a straight port. The path of least effort is more probable, but it's something to hope for. In the case of Skyrim though, I do think portability is a factor that'll make existing fans consider a double-dip.
Skittzo0413
Member
These paragraphs excellently convey my feelings about why the Switch is almost guaranteed to be a huge success. It's the first time in a long time that a Nintendo console has both core and casual appeal due to the hardware itself.
Yep, exactly. This is also the first Nintendo console, possibly ever, where people have a major reason for wanting AAA multiplats, in that the console itself provides you with the incredibly convenience of playing when, where, and how you want. I decided I was getting Skyrim the second it showed up in the October reveal.
Good points, agree with that. Where CoD is concerned, I'd say that perhaps, again, it's a different sort of outlier- while not approaching PS/Xbox sales, as far as I know the Wii ports still clocked up a respectable amount of copies sold. Whether that still makes it worth producing, considering the modern AAA concern with megahits-or-bust, is another matter entirely though. Agree on Assassins Creed, ME etc.
The thing to keep in mind with COD is that Treyarch made all of the Nintendo versions and that's why Modern Warfare skipped Wii at first. If Switch is still doing really well through the next year I wouldn't be surprised to see Treyarch's COD hit it next year.
James Scott
Banned
I don't think Switch will be the home to games like GTAVI or Destiny 2, but 3rd party support helps. It's not a 100% necessity with 3DS being the best selling hardware this gen (for now) relying almost exclusively on exclusives as did Wii.
Getting mis the major indies mixed with Japanese support and Nintendo's exclusives (especially pumped out at the rate they're going for this year) could be enough. We'll see.
We'll be lucky if they port is comprobable to the remaster from awhile back despite being much more expensive. But they could do cool stuff, maybe some amiibo armor or something.
James Scott
Banned
Double post
I see, thanks for that, didn't know that
Sometimes I think the Switch was created because "well you only do some late ports to test the waters ? lets try to do something that will increase sale value for late ports : PORTABILITY"
Principate
Saint Titanfall
If the late ports don't sell it's on the platform frankly. Remasters in general have sold well this gen I'm not sure why third parties should be thrilled to get on board of a platform where ports of their greatest hits don't sell. Clearly port's Nintendo's greatest hits sell.
phantasmic_glaive
Member
..another 3ds/ 2ds for Pokémon because I haven't played sun yet. Thanks for bringing me up to speed man. I try and keep up with all news but.. I can't.
I was high as a kite writing that stuff man.
I think there's plenty of opportunity for ports to do well. They just need to be strategic.
People know that Platinum is going to put some games on the Switch and that Platinum's audience will probably check the Switch out. Capcom has rights to all the old Clover games. It would make sense for Capcom to put Devil May Cry Collection, a Viewtiful Joe Collection, and/or Okami HD on the Switch and beat Kamiya to the punch with his own back catalogue.
Hell, Platinum themselves have a ton of back catalogue stuff they could bring over to pump people up for their upcoming titles. MadWorld and Anarchy Reigns: Switch edition. Vanquish, Switch edition. Bayonetta 1 + 2 again. Etc.
Or...we know that No More Heroes 3 is coming. How about Suda 51's back catalogue? Nintendo audiences never got Lollipop Chainsaw, and a Killer 7 Remaster along with a No More Heroes I and 2 would all be good fits for pumping people up for NMH 3.
People know that Platinum is going to put some games on the Switch and that Platinum's audience will probably check the Switch out. Capcom has rights to all the old Clover games. It would make sense for Capcom to put Devil May Cry Collection, a Viewtiful Joe Collection, and/or Okami HD on the Switch and beat Kamiya to the punch with his own back catalogue.
Hell, Platinum themselves have a ton of back catalogue stuff they could bring over to pump people up for their upcoming titles. MadWorld and Anarchy Reigns: Switch edition. Vanquish, Switch edition. Bayonetta 1 + 2 again. Etc.
Or...we know that No More Heroes 3 is coming. How about Suda 51's back catalogue? Nintendo audiences never got Lollipop Chainsaw, and a Killer 7 Remaster along with a No More Heroes I and 2 would all be good fits for pumping people up for NMH 3.
It would? Dreamcast had analogue triggers i believe. Unsure what games used them though (or if this is relevant to the thread topic...)
Yes, but most games weren't really programmed for them, thought crazy taxi isn't really gonna hurt for not having analog. All the others were some what better with digital, ready to rumble, powerstone, mvc, jsr, space channel 5.
Yes sorry, OT, was kind of adding to the third party talk.
Cow Mengde
Banned
Or hell, look at the DS before it. How many big name Western 3rd party games were on board with it? The DS detroyed everything on the market, and has one of the best library of games out there. When I think Western 3rd parties on it, I think Imaginez Babies by Ubi Soft and plenty of other shovelware.
Hiding in plain sight:
Silly, that's just your every day platypuss. Adorable little creatures.
NOLA_Gaffer
Banned
You do realize that Nintendo's consoles has been on a near constant decline after third parties started abandoning them with the N64, right?
the gamecube and the wii had a lot more support from third parties than the n64. third party support doesn't seem to be the deciding factor, as important as it is.
If you ignore the systems that don't fit that thesis sure.
To be clear I think it's important that Nintendo court western developers and I do think that the Switch can be a successful platform for them in ways previous Nintendo consoles were not.
But the idea of Nintendo in constant decline only works if you discount some of their greatest successes.
D.Lo
Member
'Near constant decline'.
Aka, no actual trend.
When the Switch has outsold the Wii U and Gamecube, can we end the 'trend except for the exceptions' stupidity?
Before I got the Switch I would have called this far-fetched, but it describes exactly my experience. I paid $40 for Binding of Isaac after ignoring it for umpteen Steam sales because the game matched the platform, and the opportunities created by the platform, so perfectly.
It is also, for both pragmatic and thematic reasons, the perfect game to play on the toilet.
I always wonder why this talking point starts with N64 when SNES was also a decline for Nintendo consoles? It doesn't fit the narrative because nearly every 3rd party backed it?
This is incredibly on point.
Nah, then we will get talk about how it sold less than 3DS +WiiU combined because its a hybrid thus means it still declined!