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Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2015 (Dec 14 - Dec 20)

Takao

Banned
This is probably not the right thread for this, but it blows my mind that we're about a month away from launch and there's been no word on if Dragon Quest Builders has multiplayer.
 

Oregano

Member
This is probably not the right thread for this, but it blows my mind that we're about a month away from launch and there's been no word on if Dragon Quest Builders has multiplayer.

They're having a DQ event on the 13th so it could get announced/shown there.
 

Orgen

Member
So it seems clear that Splatoon will end up as the best seller for home consoles this generation, right? Or is anyone expecting another game to beat Splatoon numbers?
 

Oregano

Member
So it seems clear that Splatoon will end up as the best seller for home consoles this generation, right? Or is anyone expecting another game to beat Splatoon numbers?

FFXV could still beat it. Or FFXVI I guess. I could be quite the close call though.
 

duckroll

Member
They're having a DQ event on the 13th so it could get announced/shown there.

If there was real multiplayer they would have shown it off a long time ago. No one waits until 2 weeks before release to talk about a major feature. At this point it's safe to say that outside of the world sharing stuff, if there is any multiplayer it will either be a post-launch addition, or it will be something completely unsubstantial.
 

Oregano

Member
If there was real multiplayer they would have shown it off a long time ago. No one waits until 2 weeks before release to talk about a major feature. At this point it's safe to say that outside of the world sharing stuff, if there is any multiplayer it will either be a post-launch addition, or it will be something completely unsubstantial.

Yeah, you're probably right. It seems like a very stupid omission then. SE might be completely botching the execution.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
They will probably announce DQ Builder II a couple weeks after the release of the first game, with multiplayer being one of the gamechanging additions.
 

horuhe

Member
Is Wii U still hard to find in Japanese stores?

Shiro Premium Set is selling a lot better than Mario Maker Set since Splatoon has gone and it's the cheapest option. Some stores like HMV had it on the top of their daily list. Rakuten is warning about not having Mario Maker Bundle, and so on. However, sales now are not that high as they were at the beginning of the week.
 
Shiro Premium Set is selling a lot better than Mario Maker Set since Splatoon has gone and it's the cheapest option. Some stores like HMV had it on the top of their daily list. Rakuten is warning about not having Mario Maker Bundle, and so on. However, sales now are not that high as they were at the beginning of the week.

Thanks. I wonder if this might propel some sales in 2016.
 

Eolz

Member
DQ XI (PS4) should beat both by miles

I'm not so sure. People might be satisfied with the 3DS version and the NX version is a big question mark. FFXV is defacto PS4 exclusive.

No. What Oregano said is the likeliest scenario. The 3DS version will be the best selling version (maybe 2x), and it depends when the NX version is released (no impact six months later for example).
I doubt the PS4 version will sell more than 1.3M in Japan, whereas it could (will?) happen for Splatoon for example. FFXV is the one to watch.
 

Ōkami

Member
♯FE's sell through is of 21%, that's low sell through with low stock too.

All hope is lost.

There's the boxart of Yokai Watch Sangokushi
gameinfo.png
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Indeed. How the fuck EA thought porting ME3 would have been a good idea, when ME Collection was available at the same price during the same period on PS360? The only Western publishers which really cared was Ubisoft.

Activision wasn't too bad. Wasn't CoD Black Ops 2 one of the few titles that had co-op with 1 player on GamePad and 1 player on the TV? I presume that's partly why that small Wii U online community still remains.

This is how much PS3 sold during the FFXIII and PS3 Slim launch year, in 2009.

PS3 1.764.531

With wave after wave of notable releases next year, I think the PS4 could beat this figure in 2016 by a fair margin. It does hinge on a pricecut, PS4 slim and DQXI hitting in December, but it is realistic to expect these things.

I actually don't think the PS4 will pass this number next year sadly. I think people are forgetting how much the industry has contracted since then... I'd be glad to be wrong though.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
The fact that the 3DS versions looks very polished, consists of 2D and 3D version, might release earlier etc. It will be tough for the console versions to sell nearly as much now. Smash Bros. 3DS gutted the WiiU version in Japan... Not the same game but still Smash Bros. was the strongest "traditional" Nintendo IP for homeconsole the last couple gens. Ninokuni might be a more fitting example even tough the DS version wasn't received nearly as well as DQXI likely will be

+3m for the 3DS version and 0.5-1m for the console versions seem realistic at this point.
 

Go_Ly_Dow

Member
I actually don't think the PS4 will pass this number next year sadly. I think people are forgetting how much the industry has contracted since then... I'd be glad to be wrong though.

I suppose we'll see!

I'm fairly optimistic it can, but understand why others may have more reserved estimates.

Expecting sales to plummet from Jan to early Feb and then gradually rise through Spring.
 

horuhe

Member
Ōkami;190540155 said:
♯FE's sell through is of 21%, that's low sell through with low stock too.
That's even worst than the most negative predictions. As I stated in the last page it seems the only units that got some movement were the pre-orders of Fortissimo Set.
 

DKHF

Member
I think DQ XI will launch on console and handheld at the same time, and will do at least 1 million + on PS4. It will be interesting to see how the NX version does, if NX is out by then.
 
"There's a game with a schoolgirl in it" is not a reason why VR would succeed in this country.

Mobile and portable gaming are successful because nobody has any free time, because houses and apartments are very small, and because strict mothers won't let kids sit in front of a TV for hours every night taking over the living room going online with Halo when they should be studying. So playing on the train or alone in their room represents the majority of gaming opportunities here.

If VR has a chance at large scale success in Japan, it's because it's relatively private, so people can do it without disturbing the rest of the house when mom/the wife wants to watch terrible variety shows. But in a country where everyone spends two hours on the train every day and has maybe 2-3 hours of flexible time at home, mobile is still where it's at.


I totally agree with you but I just would like to point out that japanese spent two hours on train even 15 years ago while PS2 was dominating the market, and it was a home console.
Of course playing "outside" is still the most used way, the problem is that it's shifted from handhelds to mobiles, just compare what people did on train during 2006-2009 and what they are doing now: you just see iphone and galaxy and some xperia

and when you see a junior high school kid with an iphone 6 instead of a 3DS you realize that things are really changed


I remember 20 years ago when the industry tried the VR, but only now with the actual hardware they have the power to recreate a world as it is expected when we are talking about "virtual reality"; that's the reason I believe that actually VR can get some interests, as I said I think that some kind of games can be "improved" by VR, while others like FPS or action can't be played well with a headset.

At least at the end of next year we'll have something "new", considering it's not only sony focusing on VR; and to be honest I think that regarding VR the best experience will be made by PC which are more more powerful than PS4, but I feel that PC-VR will be more successful in the west while in Japan it will be more focused on PSVR cause PC gaming is not so much popular
 

Draxal

Member
I wonder if the horrible load times of the disc version pushed people to go digital with #FE. Games still going to bomb but man those load time comparison vids were not flattering.
 
It will be really interesting to see how DQXI will perform on both platforms. This will all depend on when and how it launches. Square Enix announced DQXI as a 2016 game - the first half of the year is packed with DQ games so it seems likely DQXI will be a Q3 or Q4 game.

If the game will be released simultaneously on both 3DS and PS4, the latter would be damaged because overshadowed by the version on the most popular platform (which should still be quite alive in late-2016). That's why Square Enix would be better of, in my opinion, in launching the game on 3DS in 2016 and on PS4 in 2017, in order to exploit the two platforms the most - also considering that PS4 had the whole year to build up a jRPG fanbase. In 2017, the game can launch on both PS4 and NX.

When the game was announced, it was clear that the 3DS version was quite far in the development, unlike the PS4 version, for which little was shown.
 
Ōkami;190540155 said:
♯FE's sell through is of 21%, that's low sell through with low stock too.

All hope is lost.

Can't say I'm surprised but still. Ouch.
Another FE game for Splatoon to consume, I guess
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
YSO predictions

Week 53, 2015 (Dec 28 - Jan 3)

01. [3DS] Monster Hunter X < 155k (average 130k)
02. [3DS] Monster Strike < 130k (average 110k)
03. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch Busters < 100k (average 85k)
 

sörine

Banned
I think DQ XI will launch on console and handheld at the same time, and will do at least 1 million + on PS4. It will be interesting to see how the NX version does, if NX is out by then.
I believe the original stated plan was trying for a simultaneous 3DS/PS4 launch but I'm starting to think that might not happen since the 3DS version appeared much farther along and I can't see them holding it back too long for the PS4 version. I'm really expecting a summer launch to capitalize on the anniversary too, falling back too late in the year probably bumps up against FFXV and there's no way SE will launch these games close to each other.

I could see a scenario where 3DS DQXI launches summer 2016 with PS4 coming even as late as spring 2017, depending on where exactly FFXV lands (Fall 2016? Holiday 2016?). Or if the Amazon date is right maybe FFXV is summer and both versions of DQXI get pushed to 2H 2016? If the PS4 version comes late enough (2017) maybe we also see a scenario where the NX port launches alongside it instead too? Lots of possibilities here.
 

horuhe

Member
Will #FE even break 5 figures.
Given the sellthrough and keeping in mind the fact that it is already Monday in Japan, it surely has already sold 10k units. What matters now is if it could reach that 30k prediction. Btw, Gundam sales are keeping steady since it was 60% off.
 

Datschge

Member
I actually don't think the PS4 will pass this number next year sadly. I think people are forgetting how much the industry has contracted since then... I'd be glad to be wrong though.
I'm not seeing it coming either. Home consoles as a mainstream medium are essentially dead in Japan. PS3's late growth imo was mainly on the back of a big Wii gaming audience looking for new games that never arrived to that platform so they moved on. Now the overall console audience diminished to around Dreamcast levels and none of the existing platform holders put serious effort into increasing it again.
 

Takao

Banned
&#332;kami;190540155 said:
&#9839;FE's sell through is of 21%, that's low sell through with low stock too.

All hope is lost.

There was genuine hope that an otaku RPG would sell on a failed family platform?
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
There was genuine hope that an otaku RPG would sell on a failed family platform?

Better than this, maybe. However, it's no Code Name S.T.E.A.M.


However, I like how Nintendo always tries with core offerings on their home console going back to the N64 so I was rooting for more.
 

DKHF

Member
sörine;190543400 said:
I believe the original stated plan was trying for a simultaneous 3DS/PS4 launch but I'm starting to think that might not happen since the 3DS version appeared much farther along and I can't see them holding it back too long for the PS4 version. I'm really expecting a summer launch to capitalize on the anniversary too, falling back too late in the year probably bumps up against FFXV and there's no way SE will launch these games close to each other.

I could see a scenario where 3DS DQXI launches summer 2016 with PS4 coming even as late as spring 2017, depending on where exactly FFXV lands (Fall 2016? Holiday 2016?). Or if the Amazon date is right maybe FFXV is summer and both versions of DQXI get pushed to 2H 2016? If the PS4 version comes late enough (2017) maybe we also see a scenario where the NX port launches alongside it instead too? Lots of possibilities here.
If the 3DS version launches 6+ months before the PS4 version wouldn't that damage sales for the PS4 version significantly since the casual (and a lot of hardcore) DQ fans will have already experienced the game's story/world and not feel the need to buy it again (even if each version is very different outside of the story)? If that would be the case then maybe it makes more sense to hold back the 3DS version until close to the PS4 version's launch.

But if the 3DS version is much farther along then they will probably release it first.
 
If the 3DS version launches 6+ months before the PS4 version wouldn't that damage sales for the PS4 version significantly since the casual (and a lot of hardcore) DQ fans will have already experienced the game's story/world and not feel the need to buy it again (even if each version is very different outside of the story)? If that would be the case then maybe it makes more sense to hold back the 3DS version until close to the PS4 version's launch.

But if the 3DS version is much farther along then they will probably release it first.

Time is limited, and if both versions are launched simultaneously people will have to choose which one to pick. A late release would, instead, increase the proportion of double-dippers, especially if the two games are differentiated enough. Also, launching on 3DS in 2017 might not maximize the platform's potential unline a 2016 release. 2016 would maximize 3DS sales and 2017 would maximize PS4 sales.
 

Kid Ying

Member
If its the digital sales that are going to "Save" the game, #fe is in a tight spot. It never got on the top of the charts and its been selling for a month already.

Still, as much as i dislike the comparison with the usual otaku games, this one will probably sell better than most. Its not like those are good sellers anyway.
 

Eolz

Member
Apart from some unexpected technical problems, it would make no sense for S-E to release DQXI 3DS weeks/months after the PS4 version.
 

sörine

Banned
If the 3DS version launches 6+ months before the PS4 version wouldn't that damage sales for the PS4 version significantly since the casual (and a lot of hardcore) DQ fans will have already experienced the game's story/world and not feel the need to buy it again (even if each version is very different outside of the story)? If that would be the case then maybe it makes more sense to hold back the 3DS version until close to the PS4 version's launch.

But if the 3DS version is much farther along then they will probably release it first.
Potentially yes, but it's hard to see much justification in holding back the 3DS version for the PS4 version's benefit. I do feel like a simultaneous launch is PS4's best bet for it's own sales though, Smash and Ni No Kuni show that even a much improved later release (essentially remakes really) doesn't necessarily help sales.

Of course spring/summer for 3DS is already looking pretty hotly contested with MH Stories and Yokai Watch 3, and perhaps also for SE with FFXV, so maybe me pegging a desired summer DQXI launch is off too.

Time is limited, and if both versions are launched simultaneously people will have to choose which one to pick. A late release would, instead, increase the proportion of double-dippers, especially if the two games are differentiated enough. Also, launching on 3DS in 2017 might not maximize the platform's potential unline a 2016 release. 2016 would maximize 3DS sales and 2017 would maximize PS4 sales.
I have to disagree here, direct choice does nothing but benefit the PS4 version. If it launches later there's still a choice, but it's to wait. A strategy that relies on double dipping on different platforms seems like a faulty one given how Ni No Kuni or Smash went. I agree 2016 launch for DQXI is a must though and I'm not sure PS4 DQXI will manage it. But it's not in question that it would be better for that version if it did imo.

And potentially worse for PS4 DQXI, a later launch means it may be bumping up closer to the fabled NX port. In that scenario not only would this version be faced with the choice of consumers to wait or rely on double dippers, but there might be an additional choice versus a theoretical UE4 conversion to a new Nintendo handheld. This sort of outcome would pretty much destroy the PS4 version's sales potential.
 
YSO predictions

Week 53, 2015 (Dec 28 - Jan 3)

01. [3DS] Monster Hunter X < 155k (average 130k)
02. [3DS] Monster Strike < 130k (average 110k)
03. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch Busters < 100k (average 85k)
Somebody's gonna be in foul mood. No way MS can sell its first shipment if it drops that hard on week 2.
 

Maniel

Banned
sörine;190548365 said:
Potentially yes, but it's hard to see much justification in holding back the 3DS version for the PS4 version's benefit. I do feel like a simultaneous launch is PS4's best bet for it's own sales though, Smash and Ni No Kuni show that even a much improved later release (essentially remakes really) doesn't necessarily help sales.
I'm playing devil's advocate, but the justification for Square to hold back the 3ds version would be to increase ps4 hardware sales. DQXI isn't releasing in a vacuum, and Square may want to have as large an audience as possible on ps4 for their future releases such as KH3 and unannounced projects. There is little cost to delaying the 3ds version as well because Dragon Quest is such a huge franchise that it could release in 2017 on the 3ds and still sell 4-5 million.
 
sörine;190548365 said:
I have to disagree here, direct choice does nothing but benefit the PS4 version. If it launches later there's still a choice, but it's to wait. A strategy that relies on double dipping on different platforms seems like a faulty one given how Ni No Kuni or Smash went. I agree 2016 launch for DQXI is a must though and I'm not sure PS4 DQXI will manage it. But it's not in question that it would be better for that version if it did imo.

And potentially worse for PS4 DQXI, a later launch means it may be bumping up closer to the fabled NX port. In that scenario not only would this version be faced with the choice of consumers to wait or rely on double dippers, but there might be an additional choice versus a theoretical UE4 conversion to a new Nintendo handheld. This sort of outcome would pretty much destroy the PS4 version's sales potential.

Smash was the same exact game on a platform Wii U owner likely already owned - also, it didn't do bad in Japan at all. Ni no Kuni's problem was more the game itself instead of how it was released. These two issues don't exist with DQXI because the two versions seem quite differentiated with each other and there might be a small overlap 3DS-PS4 with respect to 3DS-Wii U; also, DQ is a too big name to fail in generating interest among players - DQXI will also be the first home console entry since 2004.
 

DKHF

Member
I'm playing devil's advocate, but the justification for Square to hold back the 3ds version would be to increase ps4 hardware sales. DQXI isn't releasing in a vacuum, and Square may want to have as large an audience as possible on ps4 for their future releases such as KH3 and unannounced projects. There is little cost to delaying the 3ds version as well because Dragon Quest is such a huge franchise that it could release in 2017 on the 3ds and still sell 4-5 million.
I had the same thought, Square might see it as highly beneficial to push the PS4 version (perhaps even first before 3DS though extremely unlikely) to increase the install base of PS4 for their future games like FFVIIR and KH3. But as has been said at most it will be a simultaneous launch or 3DS first then PS4 later.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
With this shipment and sellthrough Monster Strike will need at least a 200k second week.

1*: [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z <RPG> (GungHo Online Entertainment) {2013.12.12} (¥4.400) - 543.630 / 1.504.068 <79,02%>
2*: [3DS] Monster Strike <RPG> (Mixi) {2015.12.17} (¥4.860) - 437.903 / 437.903 <46,26%>
Code:
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+
|  | MCreate  | MCreate  | MCreate  | MCreate  |
|  |    1*    |    1*    |    2*    |    2*    |
|Wk|2013.12.12|2013.12.12|2015.12.17|2015.12.17|
|  |    to    |    to    |    to    |    to    |
|  |2014.04.27|2014.04.27|2016.05.01|2016.05.01|
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| 1|   543.630|   543.630|   437.903|   437.903|
| 2|   256.373|   800.003|          |          |
| 3|   205.654| 1.005.658|          |          |
| 4|   157.883| 1.163.541|          |          |
| 5|    52.880| 1.216.421|          |          |
| 6|    48.788| 1.265.209|          |          |
| 7|    35.568| 1.300.778|          |          |
| 8|    26.125| 1.326.903|          |          |
| 9|    16.876| 1.343.779|          |          |
|10|    15.462| 1.359.241|          |          |
|11|    15.092| 1.374.333|          |          |
|12|    14.479| 1.388.812|          |          |
|13|    10.508| 1.399.320|          |          |
|14|     7.755| 1.407.075|          |          |
|15|          |          |          |          |
|16|          |          |          |          |
|17|     6.787| 1.430.720|          |          |
|18|     4.466| 1.435.186|          |          |
|19|     4.115| 1.439.301|          |          |
|20|          |          |          |          |
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+
 

Eolz

Member
I'm playing devil's advocate, but the justification for Square to hold back the 3ds version would be to increase ps4 hardware sales. DQXI isn't releasing in a vacuum, and Square may want to have as large an audience as possible on ps4 for their future releases such as KH3 and unannounced projects. There is little cost to delaying the 3ds version as well because Dragon Quest is such a huge franchise that it could release in 2017 on the 3ds and still sell 4-5 million.

I had the same thought, Square might see it as highly beneficial to push the PS4 version (perhaps even first before 3DS though extremely unlikely) to increase the install base of PS4 for their future games like FFVIIR and KH3. But as has been said at most it will be a simultaneous launch or 3DS first then PS4 later.

Eh. They don't have to care that much about the PS4 since it's not an exclusive. FFVIIR and KH3 will sell more in the west, and won't even be exclusive in this region.
They tried to push PS4 hardware in Japan already from the start, but there's no real reason to do it only for DQXI when it'll sell well anyway, and they're betting on cumulative sales.
I really don't see S-E doing that just for the PS4 when they have a multiplatform, multi exclusives, strategy. Money is more important for them now that the PS4 is a confirmed success in the west, isn't doing so bad in Japan, and 3DS users will buy DQ.
 

Maniel

Banned
Eh. They don't have to care that much about the PS4 since it's not an exclusive. FFVIIR and KH3 will sell more in the west, and won't even be exclusive in this region.
They tried to push PS4 hardware in Japan already from the start, but there's no real reason to do it only for DQXI when it'll sell well anyway, and they're betting on cumulative sales.
I really don't see S-E doing that just for the PS4 when they have a multiplatform, multi exclusives, strategy. Money is more important for them now that the PS4 is a confirmed success in the west, isn't doing so bad in Japan, and 3DS users will buy DQ.
Square does have to care how the ps4 is doing even if their games are multi platform. Obviously they want all the platforms they put their games on to be doing well, and they have the ability to build an audience for those games. Their "multiplatform, multi exclusives," strategy is really only two systems at most for most of their games anyway and the commonality between them all is that almost all of them are coming to ps4.

My point was that they may lose a small amount of sales by delaying the 3ds version to launch at the same time as the ps4, but they will gain more buyers for their other games that won't be coming out on 3ds.
 
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