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[Opiate]

I'm always surprised when I see the installment base of generations and compare it to software sales. If this generation happens to lose a chunk of the more casual or Wii audience wouldn't that have little affect on pubs though? It seems like the hardcore/core are the ones that actually buy the games each month and it seems like they will at least be retained or replaced gen to gen. If you're losing people that only bought Wii sports because they're playing candy crush now it shouldn't affect the core game publishers I wouldn't think. I don't think total consoles sold tell the whole tale. Have software sales (not sure without digital) been worse from previous gens?

I do feel dedicated handheld is dying that said though.

The Wii sold 900M pieces of software, but I do agree that the major publishers never really invested significantly in the Wii.

The real issue is growth: because development costs continue to escalate, the publishers need growth to sustain the track they've been on for decades. The problem, then, is that this Wii audience (which is now a mobile/casual/browser/social audience) is where all the growth is.

So I agree that the big publishers have not really invested all that heavily in to what we refer to as the "casual audience," but that is in itself a big problem. They need growth, and there missing out on all of it right now, which is what has allowed companies like King and GungHo and Supercell to rise so rapidly and astronomically; they're swimming in the growth area of gaming with little competition from the established players in the gaming market.

 

[darkstar0155]

It really depends on the pub to tell the truth .

how much cash did Ubi make from just dance on the Wii though? so while AC not being available on the Wii didnt add to the coffers, the other Ubi games on the Wii def. did help them with the balance sheets.

 

[SmokyDave]

Take this with a grain of salt. I remember reading that the Wii sold more than 500 million 3rd party software.

I'm sure the number is big (Nintendo can only make so many games!), I just suspect it'll be notably less than 900 mill.

 

[metalslimer]

Wow. The 3DS collapsed. I'm expecting Vita-level sales for Nintendo's next handheld. Mobiles and Tablets can not be stopped.

Nintendo's next handheld will probably sell more than Vita in Japan alone....You really expect Pokemon to collapse to nothing in the course of a generation?

If you told someone last gen that the 3DS' market would shrink by such a staggering amount that it wouldn't even get close to PSP numbers I'm sure they would have said the same.

There's a large difference between a huge contraction (which could certainly happen to the next handheld) and Vita numbers.

 

[KillerMan91]

Wasn't pretty much every major publisher profitable during last quarter? It seems that they have already quite succesfully moved their Wii/DS audience titles to mobile.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

how much cash did Ubi make from just dance on the Wii though? so while AC not being available on the Wii didnt add to the coffers, the other Ubi games on the Wii def. did help them with the balance sheets.

That is why i said it depends on the pub because if we use Take two it won't effect them as much .

 

[theprodigy]

If you told someone last gen that the 3DS' market would shrink by such a staggering amount that it wouldn't even get close to PSP numbers I'm sure they would have said the same.

.....I don't think you get the difference between going from god-tier numbers to mediocre numbers, and going from mediocre numbers to.....Vita numbers

 

[StormKing]

No, but those two games do represent more than 10% of the total software sales.

Do we know how many third party games were sold on the Wii? I think that's probably the more important number.

Not sure how accurate it is but according to this site around 500 Million. Definitely not as much as what they sold on PS3/Xbox360. However, still significant sales.

http://www.gengame.net/2013/05/anot...d-third-party-sales-actually-improved-on-wii/

It doesn't seem like the big third party publishers benefited much besides Ubisoft(Just Dance) and Activation(Skylanders) though.

 

[Salex_]

So are we expecting that PS4 (und Xbox One) will sell better YoY starting next year?

If software moves hardware, yeah. All of the big games are coming holiday 2014/early 2015. As of right now, we know Halo/Uncharted/Zelda are holiday 2015 games.

 

[Opiate]

Wasn't pretty much every major publisher profitable during last quarter? It seems that they have already quite succesfully moved their Wii/DS audience titles to mobile.

For the guy who seems adamantly concerned that we not judge current platforms by a small sample size (an opinion I agree with), taking just last quarter's results seems like a very narrow window by which to gauge success.

Over the last 1-2 years, I'd describe the major publishers as "treading water."

 

[Amentallica]

What stops these companies from releasing their most popular IPs on their other platforms? Nintendo's Pokemon on Wii U, why don't we have it? Capcom's Monster Hunter on either PS4 or XB1, why don't we have it? Square's non-westernized Final Fantasy games, why don't we have it (although Type-0 is sometime coming). These games sell gangbusters. Is it really a legal issue in these examples or are they just too concerned about the risk of developing for another platform, despite a series' popularity?

 

[gundamkyoukai]

If software moves hardware, yeah. All of the big games are coming holiday 2014/early 2015. As of right now, we know Halo/Uncharted/Zelda are holiday 2015 games.

The big pubs need to kill cross gen stuff to make it even faster .

 

[AniHawk]

5-6 years isn't standard anymore isn't it? More like 6-7 years.

PS2 had a 6 years lifespan before PS3 came out and a whopping 13 years before being discontinued in production. So you can argue what a lifepsan really is when a last gen console continues to outsell the current gen console.

PS3 had a 7 years lifespan before PS4 came out and who knows when it is going to be discontinued.

Even the shortlived Wii had a 6 years lifespan, but it got discontinued almost right after the Wii U came out though.

ps2 lasted longer when its best competition launched about a year and a half afterwards. the ps3 lasted way too long, and 2013 was sort of a heat death for the system. the former obviously didn't happen with the ps4, and i strongly doubt sony wants to have the same thing happen with the ps4 if it gets replaced with another console.

 

[FourMyle]

Nintendo's next handheld will probably sell more than Vita in Japan alone....You really expect Pokemon to collapse to nothing in the course of a generation?


There's a large difference between a huge contraction (which could certainly happen to the next handheld) and Vita numbers.

True

It will be very interesting to see how their next handheld performs.

 

[JoeM86]

What stops these companies from releasing their most popular IPs on their other platforms? Nintendo's Pokemon on Wii U, why don't we have it? Capcom's Monster Hunter on either PS4 or XB1, why don't we have it? Square's non-westernized Final Fantasy games, why don't we have it (although Type-0 is sometime coming). These games sell gangbusters. Is it really a legal issue in these examples or are they just too concerned about the risk of developing for another platform, despite a series' popularity?

No Pokémon on the Wii U is because the developers insist it is a title that requires a handheld. Putting it on a home console would add very little and yet take a way from the key portability aspect of the game.

Monster Hunter, similarly, does far better on handhelds than on home console.

Those series would not sell "gangbusters" on the platforms you suggested, especially the former.

 

[Nirolak]

There was nothing that could save the VITA to tell the truth .
When Sony bring out the Vita with it's price plus memory cards it was like them trying to bring out a MP3 player in this day and age .
To make matters worst unlike home consoles Japan who make most of the handhled software don't make it mutliplatform , west don't care about handhelds that much and Sony Devs are brought up on home console .

I should clarify by "better go" I mean like averaging 35-40K a month instead of 12K.

I'm not hammering them that much here since they're not losing something that was going to be worth a lot to them long run.

It's more that on a higher level, I feel not having high quality internal support on a device kills it very hard.

 

[lyrick]

Wasn't pretty much every major publisher profitable during last quarter? It seems that they have already quite succesfully moved their Wii/DS audience titles to mobile.

This is such a strange narrative that gets repeated incessantly. Why is it just assumed that the Wii base moved to mobile? Wouldn't it be just as likely that many of them ended up also purchasing or obtaining a 360, PS3 or PC at some point in the last 7 - 8 years?

Could it be possible that many people just stepped out of gaming after the plastic instrument (Rockband/Guitar Hero) phase ended or that younger GenX'ers/older Gen Y's started to slow down their gaming habits to pursue careers and family?

The question I have is what happened to the 30+ million people that purchased GTA V last year? Where did they go?

 

[KillerMan91]

For the guy who seems adamantly concerned that we not judge current platforms by a small sample size (an opinion I agree with), taking just last quarter's results seems like a very narrow window by which to gauge success.

Over the last 1-2 years, I'd describe the major publishers as "treading water."

Well I might sound like hypocrite but considering how peope are telling me that (deticated) industry is doing even at this moment way worse than last gen and depite this major publishers are able to turn profit during the slowest quarter of the year doesn't it tell something? If I remember right for example EA was losing bucket loads of money during start of last gen. Of course yeah full year numbers will be better with financial numbers too.

 

[spatenfloot]

Take this with a grain of salt. I remember reading that the Wii sold more than 500 million 3rd party software.

Yes, but at what price point? I would usually only see people buying $10 shovelware games for their kids.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I should clarify by "better go" I mean like averaging 35-40K a month instead of 12K.

I'm not hammering them that much here since they're not losing something that was going to be worth a lot to them long run.

It's more that on a higher level, I feel not having high quality internal support on a device kills it very hard.

It was always my opinion that they should never bother with another handheld .
They got lucky in Japan with MH but that was not going happen again and the signs that handhelds were dying were there.

 

[theDeeDubs]

No Pokémon on the Wii U is because the developers insist it is a title that requires a handheld.

Adding some cross play functionality would go far for something like that. Go out with handheld with friends and continue playing on WiiU at home. Seems like leaving money on the table to me. My nephews (anecdotal but damn good litmus tests from my experience) never play their WiiU's and it's mainly two reasons: 1. No Pokemon 2. No Minecraft.

 

[jcm]

Oh. Thanks for your time.

Also, there's around 400k difference between you and Bruno's data.

Bruno's are correct. My January number was way off. Not sure how that happened. Here's the corrected numbers:

  2007 Wii  2014 PS4  2014 XB1
Jan    436       271       141
Feb    335       270       258
Mar    259       371       311
Apr    360       199       115
May    338       197        77
Jun    382       269       197
Jul    425       187       131
      2535      1764      1230

 

[lukeskymac]

Remaster at number one. This industry.

Something tells me if this was a FFVII remaster you wouldn't be complaining.

 

[Orthogonal]

The question I have is what happened to the 30+ million people that purchased GTA V last year? Where did they go?

Most of them are like the CoD crowd. They don't buy many games at all, just CoD and maybe Madden or Fifa each year and don't bother with any other games.

 

[AniHawk]

I think you misunderstand the situation. Mario Kart has just launched not too long ago. That is a must have game for many, yet, the WiiU numbers were average last month, and abysmal this month. The majority of Playstation and Xbox gamers don´t buy the consoles for one game, but for the collective gaming library. For instance casuals who buy PS4 for COD, most likely don´t show any interest in buying Bloodborne. Most people who buy AC, don´t buy LBP. What i am saying is that for PS and Xbox platforms, there is not one game that make people flock towards the console. It´s the collective library that make people flock to the PS4 and the Xbone.

i wasn't really talking about raw numbers with the wii u as being good or bad, but that this will be the best year based on year over year sales. the wii u was seeing growth year over year even before mario kart 8 released. people were buying it essentially for the back catalog too.

i question how much more ps4 and xb1 will be able to convince 18-34 males that they need the platform. lots of western games coming out next year with a focus on seriousness and violence will go a long way to keeping that fanbase happy, but it does nothing to appeal to anyone who isn't interested in those kinds of games. i think sony and microsoft are pretty aware of this issue too, with their new ways to make money through pay to win schemes and increasing the 'value' of subscription services.

 

[Nirolak]

It was always my opinion that they should never bother with another handheld .
They got lucky in Japan with MH but that was not going happen again and the signs that handhelds were dying were there.

Yes, that probably would have been the most logical idea.

 

[JoeM86]

Adding some cross play functionality would go far for something like that. Go out with handheld with friends and continue playing on WiiU at home. Seems like leaving money on the table to me. My nephews (anecdotal but damn good litmus tests from my experience) never play their WiiU's and it's mainly two reasons: 1. No Pokemon 2. No Minecraft.

Cross play is different. Implementing compatibility with the handheld titles would be a huge priority. However, what many people our age miss is that the portable aspect is a large part of why Pokémon is popular. Even outside of Japan, it's still a big part. The Pokémon games are designed around it, and removing that would be detrimental and would damage sales.

With the way handhelds are catching up to consoles, and X & Ys online was one of the best online systems to exist on a Nintendo platform, there's zero reason for main series Pokémon to jump on it these days.

But, I digress, this is a discussion for another topic.

 

[Amentallica]

How better off, if at all, would Nintendo be as strictly a publisher? Does Sega do better business now than when they made consoles (prior to Dreamcast of course)?
I would love their games on the PS4. It would be weird as hell to see Mario getting torn apart by Kratos in a Smash game or watching the other characters debut on non-Nintendo consoles, but I really think their games would sell extraordinarily well; that, and they wouldn't have to worry about manufacturing hardware.

 

[Hero]

No, but those two games do represent more than 10% of the total software sales.

Do we know how many third party games were sold on the Wii? I think that's probably the more important number.

500 million pieces of software.

 

[RealityPales]

Something tells me if this was a FFVII remaster you wouldn't be complaining.

FFVII didn't release last year, however.

 

[Orthogonal]

How better off, if at all, would Nintendo be as strictly a publisher? Does Sega do better business now than when they made consoles (prior to Dreamcast of course)?

Nintendo has a name cache much greater than Sega does along with many more beloved IP's that they could make it work, but it is hard to say if they would be better off. I personally think they would do gangbusters by being on PC + all consoles, but who knows how it would evolve over the years.

 

[Zatoichi's Cane]

I don't have 2001 PS2 numbers, but here's 2007 vs 2014:

  2007 Wii  2014 PS4  2014 XB1
Jan    436       271       141
Feb    335       270       258
Mar    259       371       311
Apr    360       199       115
May    338       197        77
Jun    382       269       197
Jul    425       187       131
      2535      1764      1230

Are these the actual July numbers?

 

[BuzzJive]

Too egregious there chap. Your 'thing' ain't going to work if nobody thinks you're serious. You've over-egged that post by about 50%.

Wow. The ironing is delicious.

 

[Aquamarine]

Are these the actual July numbers?

Yes. This is the benefit of revealing numbers at 4 AM.

 

[Chunky]

How better off, if at all, would Nintendo be as strictly a publisher? Does Sega do better business now than when they made consoles (prior to Dreamcast of course)?

I'm sure someone much more knowledgeable than me could explain it better, but do you honestly think Nintendo would be making more money as a strictly-software publisher? Considering they sell their hardware at a profit, where would they be getting the money to replace what they lost by ditching their consoles?

Sega did everything they could with the Dreamcast to stay in the hardware race, you only have to see their current output to know how much worse they're doing.

 

[joecanada]

Thanks for crunching these numbers out. People need to drop the PR spin and face the reality of the market. If the console market was really so healthy, companies wouldn't keep bleeding money.

I must be reading it wrong... the 2014 totals show somewhere in the middle of ps2 and wii craze, the poster who crunched it even stated "par for the course" ... unsure how this is such bad news.

 

[AstuteClass]

FFVII didn't release last year, however.

He didn't say "year old remaster" he said "remaster". Besides, it's not like all those people who bought it were all PS3 owners who all already played it.

 

[Htown]

Yes, but at what price point? I would usually only see people buying $10 shovelware games for their kids.

that generation is over

you don't have to fight that fight anymore

 

[lyrick]

I'm sure someone much more knowledgeable than me could explain it better, but do you honestly think Nintendo would be making more money as a strictly-software publisher? Considering they sell their hardware at a profit, where would they be getting the money to replace what they lost by ditching their consoles?

Sega did everything they could with the Dreamcast to stay in the hardware race, you only have to see their current output to know how much worse they're doing.

They would also lose out on licensing costs to have games on other platforms. That nearly 30% loss would not be insignificant.

 

[Shion]

Lots of traditional gamers have migrated to PC and Steam for their gaming needs. The number of PC gamers is much higher today than it was back in the beginning of the 7th gen. Those people aren't buying consoles anymore but they're still spending money on traditional gaming experiences.

Focusing on a single demographic with safer than ever software is the biggest reason that this generation will likely not even be 1:1 with the previous, because less software that doesn't step outside the young male imagination is a sure way to limit your market.

Good think that games like Minecraft, Knack, LittleBigPlanet, Tearaway, Journey, Ratchet & Clank, Project Spark, Zoo Tycoon, Plants vs Zombies, Rayman Legends, Transistor, Child of Light, Valiant Hearts, Ori and the Blind Forest, Cuphead, Rime, The Witness, The Tomorrow Children etc. exist on consoles, then.

Also, AAA games have reached a point where they don't only attract 15 year old males. Not every game is like Call of Duty and Gears of War. Titles like Assassin's Creed and The Last of Us attract a wide variety of ages as well as female gamers.

 

[JoeM86]

They would also incur a lose on the Publishing cost to have games on other platforms. That nearly 30% loss would not insignificant.

Indeed. They would have to downsize significantly to counter the massive drop in income. We also would no longer get experimental & niche games from them such as Steel Diver, WarioWare and Metroid. They, like the other big publishers, would have to start actually annualising their top selling franchises rather than stick to their one (or two if it fits) per series per console policy.

 

[Amentallica]

I'm sure someone much more knowledgeable than me could explain it better, but do you honestly think Nintendo would be making more money as a strictly-software publisher? Considering they sell their hardware at a profit, where would they be getting the money to replace what they lost by ditching their consoles?

Sega did everything they could with the Dreamcast to stay in the hardware race, you only have to see their current output to know how much worse they're doing.

I do think so, yes. With the exception of the Wii and DS, their consoles don't seem to sell very well, yet their IPs on these small install bases still sell a lot. You have to always spend money to make money, regardless. They don't have to hold on to hardware just to have money to make software. If they've always made money off of hardware, they have the money to publish games without their own hardware which would eventually turn profits. Either way, risk is sometimes necessary. Playing it safe hasn't gotten them too far.

Edit: Someone mentioned licensing costs, and that's right, that is a lot of money. I'm just speculating here, so don't take offense.

 

[Sakura]

Wow. The 3DS collapsed. I'm expecting Vita-level sales for Nintendo's next handheld. Mobiles and Tablets can not be stopped.

When the DS came out smartphones and tablets were not a thing.
Now they are and they are huge.
However, when the next Nintendo handheld comes out, I don't see smartphones and tablets being much more prolific than they already are. Not anywhere near the difference between when the DS came out and when the 3DS came out. So I personally don't see Nintendo's next handheld contracting much.

How better off, if at all, would Nintendo be as strictly a publisher? Does Sega do better business now than when they made consoles (prior to Dreamcast of course)?
I would love their games on the PS4. It would be weird as hell to see Mario getting torn apart by Kratos in a Smash game or watching the other characters debut on non-Nintendo consoles, but I really think their games would sell extraordinarily well; that, and they wouldn't have to worry about manufacturing hardware.

They wouldn't be better off. Nintendo sells their hardware at a profit, or at least have up until the Wii U maybe. They also get 100% of the profits on all their first party stuff, be it physical games or a 20 year old game on the eShop for 5 bucks.
Also consider that Nintendo gets money from third party games as well on their hardware (they exist!) which they wouldn't get if they themselves were third party.
You could make the argument that they would sell more software if they were multiplat, but I don't subscribe to that point of view. How many units did SS sell on the Wii's install base versus OoT on the N64's install base? Add onto the fact they wouldn't get 100% of the profits off their software if it were on 3rd party platforms.

 

[CosmicQueso]

The big pubs need to kill cross gen stuff to make it even faster .

For the US, yes. LATAM, Eastern Europe, other emerging markets make going new gen only very difficult.

 

[Pain]

Current-gen revenue marketshare:

PS4 - 49%

XBO - 51%


There are PLENTY of other multiplatform games that show a PS4 advantage, though. Especially games like Watch_Dogs.

So COD has a 49% marketshare on PS4 and PS4s install base gets bigger by the week yet Activision is still continuing its timed DLC deal? Seems like a bad business decision. At least shorten that from 1 month to 1 week. For your own good. I'm sure Microsoft would understand that they're not in any position to make any demands anymore.

 

[allan-bh]

Any word about 3DS hardware?

 

[gundamkyoukai]

For the US, yes. LATAM, Eastern Europe, other emerging markets make going new gen only very difficult.

For those emerging markets neither 360 or PS3 can take advantage of them because there price is so high .
This something PS2 did really well when they got it down to $99 and i think Sony going to try again with PS4 since they had cost cutting in mind.

 

[Pain]

NPD July sales:


PS4 - 187K

XBO - 131K


I was dead on with my Xbox One prediction of 132K




Compare with last month:


NPD June sales:

PS4 - 269K

XBO - 197K


Adjusted for 4-week differential:

NPD June sales (if 4-weeks):

PS4 - 215K

XBO - 158K




Correlation with Callahan's PR statement:





PS3 LTD as of July 2007 - 1.61 million

360 LTD as of July 2006 - 2.21 million

Combined 9-month total = 3.82 million



PS4 LTD as of July 2014 - 3.76 million

XBO LTD as of July 2014 - 3.05 million

Combined 9-month total = 6.81 million


% change from 3.82 million to 6.81 million is 78.27%.

Ergo, sales of the newest consoles are larger than the prior generation by "close to 80%."



I'm going to sleep now. I'll say more tomorrow.

PS4s sales aren't all that impressive TBH. Hopefully they increase this August although that's unlikely with no big releases. September will be a bloodbath.

 

[Nirolak]

For the US, yes. LATAM, Eastern Europe, other emerging markets make going new gen only very difficult.

Do those actually have a notably large ASP and unit volume these days for console games?

I'm mainly asking since looking at the release list for 2015, a lot of publishers seem pretty comfortable dropping last-gen at that point, even if they have it for all their Fall 2014 titles.

I imagine this varies based on the type of title, but I guess if there's a way to ask that question in an "overall" sense without being too sweeping.

 

[Mr_Antimatter]

I must be reading it wrong... the 2014 totals show somewhere in the middle of ps2 and wii craze, the poster who crunched it even stated "par for the course" ... unsure how this is such bad news.

Not to mention the difference in launch aligned times, LTD, available releases, etc.