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[Masklinn]

Why the hell are Wii pack ins not in the hardware/peripheral category? It continues to piss me off. They aren't selling a game, they are selling a peripheral with a low budget game added as a bonus.

How do you manage to post with that level of mental retardation?

 

[jibblypop]

Someone said they think the Conduit will open around the same numbers as Punch out but I really can't see that happening. Punch-Out had tons of ads on tv and the Conduit doesn't. That matters a lot.
It might sell over 100k but I would be very surprised if it produced the numbers first month that some people here are expecting.
It may sell over the long term, who knows? But I wouldn't be expecting day one blockbuster status.

 

[farnham]

Someone said they think the Conduit will open around the same numbers as Punch out but I really can't see that happening. Punch-Out had tons of ads on tv and the Conduit doesn't. That matters a lot.
It might sell over 100k but I would be very surprised if it produced the numbers first month that some people here are expecting.
It may sell over the long term, who knows? But I wouldn't be expecting day one blockbuster status.

conduit is launching in two weeks.. its not even out how can there be commercials.. (unless its halo or something)

 

[Kill Your Masters]

(unless its halo or something)

It's the game that will win over the Halo audience. Hype needs to start ASAP.

 

[jibblypop]

conduit is launching in two weeks.. its not even out how can there be commercials.. (unless its halo or something)

Do you think there will be as many commercials as Punch Out?

Also it seems like awareness is pretty low all around for that game. As you say though it's out in 2 weeks so I would love to be wrong and see a killer ad campaign. It could happen I guess but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[chuckddd]

Someone said they think the Conduit will open around the same numbers as Punch out but I really can't see that happening. Punch-Out had tons of ads on tv and the Conduit doesn't. That matters a lot.
It might sell over 100k but I would be very surprised if it produced the numbers first month that some people here are expecting.
It may sell over the long term, who knows? But I wouldn't be expecting day one blockbuster status.

I have yet to see a single ad for Punch-Out, but I have seen about a billion ads for UFC. Perhaps it's a demographic thing, but it will be important for Sega to not only advertise, but advertise in the right spots. Unfortunately for them, the NBA playoffs will be over by then.

 

[jibblypop]

I have yet to see a single ad for Punch-Out

I only watch the news and sports. I saw the Punch Out ads during those 2 things. I live in Canada so maybe the advertising was higher for punch out here. no idea.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

the wheel, which is most likely only used to play mario kart, is the reason why mario kart is selling well?

I'm sure that launch 4x4 game that came with a wheel also quickly went multi-platinum.

 

[GitarooMan]

Holy shit at Bionic Commando. Grin is having a tough couple of months.

 

[farnham]

Do you think there will be as many commercials as Punch Out?

Also it seems like awareness is pretty low all around for that game. As you say though it's out in 2 weeks so I would love to be wrong and see a killer ad campaign. It could happen I guess but I wouldn't bet on it.

i dont know

i personally never saw any ads for punch out

im just sitting here and waiting for my preordered copy from amazon which they still havent shipped because its sold out.. crazy i know

 

[Shurs]

It's when the avatar defence force comes in to play, that's when it gets hilarious.

Well..... its funny at first anyway.


edit: Actually, serious question here for sane people, are there any games coming out in Q4 2009 that people would seriously categorise as a 'system seller'? I see some big 3rd party titles coming, but nothing from first parties that is going to have a Halo/MGS4 effect. I wonder if price cuts and aggressive marketing will be what the console manufacturers order this Christmas.

There is no one title coming out this year for Playstation 3 that is a "system seller." It would be foolish to think that Uncharted 2 is a system seller. Uncharted 2 is a sequel to a current gen game. If any game had a chance of being a system seller (and if one believed that stupid meme) the first game would've had the better chance, and the first Uncharted obviously wasn't a system seller. A $400 purchase is made due to more than one game.

Edit: If anyone is hyping Uncharted 2, it's as a Game of the Year candidate, not a system seller. This "Wait For..." meme is fucking tired.

 

[GitarooMan]

I saw tons of Punch-Out commercials, but in any event the game was never going to be massive. Tbe game (and the commercials) rely heavily on nostalgia for a game which has far fewer fans than something like Mario/Zelda. Younger kids and casuals are not likely to really take interest.

 

[Shurs]

Dude, I meant for the month of August not the entire year.

Well then, what was your point? You responded to my response asking when the last price cut sustained momentum for a console for more than a few months. Price does matter, to claim it doesn't is completely wrong when comparing the HD consoles.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I'm sure that launch 4x4 game that came with a wheel also quickly went multi-platinum.

I was gonna mention this but I couldn't remember the name of the game. :lol

 

[dammitmattt]

The differences in sales patterns are mostly due to the differences in the Wii and 360 user bases. There are a large portion of Wii owners who don't see the release of a new game, even a really well done one, as an event. There is very little Nintendo can do to convince them otherwise.

And yet this audience participates day and date with event movies (all summer blockbusters) and event TV shows (American Idol, Jon & Kate, etc.).

There is actually a lot that Nintendo can do to convince them otherwise. They just obviously feel that the return is not worth the marketing spend.

 

[legend166]

And yet this audience participates day and date with event movies (all summer blockbusters) and event TV shows (American Idol, Jon & Kate, etc.).

There is actually a lot that Nintendo can do to convince them otherwise. They just obviously feel that the return is not worth the marketing spend.

Oh come on, that's a ridiculous comparison. They're not in any way comparable. You've got months and months to go out and buy a game, compared to a film which doesn't stick around forever. Or a TV show, which up until very recently could only be seen that one time. How is that comparable.

The only way you'll make the casual audience really start to care about day one purchases is through limited sale periods or if it's a sequel to an established franchise.

 

[Shurs]

And yet this audience participates day and date with event movies (all summer blockbusters) and event TV shows (American Idol, Jon & Kate, etc.).

There is actually a lot that Nintendo can do to convince them otherwise. They just obviously feel that the return is not worth the marketing spend.

What is Jon & Kate and how is it an event?

 

[dammitmattt]

Updated just for ya:

:lol :lol :lol

The "Obama" completely makes that. Nice job on the wands, too.

 

[dammitmattt]

edit: Actually, serious question here for sane people, are there any games coming out in Q4 2009 that people would seriously categorise as a 'system seller'? I see some big 3rd party titles coming, but nothing from first parties that is going to have a Halo/MGS4 effect. I wonder if price cuts and aggressive marketing will be what the console manufacturers order this Christmas.

Yes, but they're almost all multiplatform outside of New Super Mario Bros. Wii:

The Beatles: Rock Band
Modern Warfare 2
Assassin's Creed 2
Madden 10

Uncharted 2 and Ratchet Future 2 will mostly sell to the existing base. Same with Halo 3: ODST. Forza 3 is a little more interesting because it might sell some systems to some Sony stalwarts who are sick of waiting on GT5.

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

Slightly off topic, but I've been looking for a good Natal picture to shop since forever.

You know this is coming when idiots people start kicking their TVs and blame Microsoft. :lol

 

[thefro]

At least among the online audience, Conduit seems to have a stronger buzz than Punch-Out. The people who bought Punch-Out were mainly the folks with Wiis who had owned the NES game or, to a lesser extent, Super Punch-Out back in the day.

Interest in Punch-Out has really dropped off already among core gamers due to the lack of boxers and the difficulty curve on Title Defense. Nintendo's ad campaign, although great, really only targeted the 2-3 million people who had owned the NES game. The sport of boxing has tanked since the NES game was released as well. If I'm a casual gamer, I can already box the computer and other people with Wii Sports.

There is quite a sizable fanbase for the Conduit game that will be playing it for months online and spreading buzz. A lot still depends on what Sega's TV ad campaign is and how the rest of the reviews are, but I'm still confident it'll do pretty well.

 

[Shurs]

Yes, but they're almost all multiplatform outside of New Super Mario Bros. Wii:

The Beatles: Rock Band
Modern Warfare 2
Assassin's Creed 2
Madden 10

Uncharted 2 and Ratchet Future 2 will mostly sell to the existing base. Same with Halo 3: ODST. Forza 3 is a little more interesting because it might sell some systems to some Sony stalwarts who are sick of waiting on GT5.

You are correct there about the bolded games not being system sellers. I don't really see any one game as a system seller. If Grand Theft Auto 4 didn't move hardware, I don't see any multiplatform titles selling a machine on their own.

 

[plagiarize]

And yet this audience participates day and date with event movies (all summer blockbusters) and event TV shows (American Idol, Jon & Kate, etc.).

There is actually a lot that Nintendo can do to convince them otherwise. They just obviously feel that the return is not worth the marketing spend.

the difference is that summer movies generally only stay on screens for a couple of weeks, unless they're big hits or you have a large multiplex to go to, and TV shows are only on at a very specific time.

a video game is more like a DVD in that the customer knows it's going to be in stores for months if not years. i don't see most people rushing out day 1 to buy a game or a DVD to be honest... but i don't think that's any kind of slam on the people making or advertising them.

 

[legend166]

Yes, but they're almost all multiplatform outside of New Super Mario Bros. Wii:

The Beatles: Rock Band
Modern Warfare 2
Assassin's Creed 2
Madden 10

Uncharted 2 and Ratchet Future 2 will mostly sell to the existing base. Same with Halo 3: ODST. Forza 3 is a little more interesting because it might sell some systems to some Sony stalwarts who are sick of waiting on GT5.

How are any of those (except possibly Beatles) system sellers. They're sequels to existing games. Madden has had what, 4 next generation iterations by now? Why would 10 make someone jump in if they hadn't before? Who's buying a console for Assassin's Creed 2 that didn't already have one for Assassin's Creed 1? Same with Modern Warfare.

I don't see how they're system sellers at all. They're pretty much the definition of selling to the existing base.

 

[MacBosse]

Interview in Swedish, page 10

From this interview in Swedish magazine Gamereactor the CEO of Grin Bo Andersson said that Bionic Commando cost a little over 150 000 000 Swedish kronor (roughly 19.531.250 dollars) to make ...

Now lets do the math GAF. How much did Capcom lose when they sold only 30.000 copies? Could we estimate the copies sold in Europe and get that figure in too?

 

[Xeke]

I've also never seen a punchout commercial.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

the wheel, which is most likely only used to play mario kart, is the reason why mario kart is selling well?

I'm sure that launch 4x4 game that came with a wheel also quickly went multi-platinum.


EDIT: WHOOPS DELAYED DOUBLE POST. Evidence left for embarrassment.

 

[legend166]

Interview in Swedish

From this interview in Swedish magazine Gamereactor the CEO of Grin Bo Andersson said that Bionic Commando cost a little over 150 000 000 Swedish kronor = 19.5285 million U.S. dollars to make ...

Now lets do the math GAF. How much did Capcom lose when they sold only 30.000 copies? Could we estimate the copies sold in Europe and get that figure in too?

Let's be generous and say they sold 30k in Europe. Accounting for the higher price in Europe, let's say they get $30US per copy.

60k * $30 = 1.8 million revenue for the first month.

Massive, massive bomba, by any account.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Interview in Swedish

From this interview in Swedish magazine Gamereactor the CEO of Grin Bo Andersson said that Bionic Commando cost a little over 150 000 000 Swedish kronor = 19.5285 million U.S. dollars to make ...

Now lets do the math GAF. How much did Capcom lose when they sold only 30.000 copies? Could we estimate the copies sold in Europe and get that figure in too?

Let's be generous and say they sold double as much in Europe. 90,000 total. Now let's be generous and say that GRiN is receiving 100% of all copies sold and all copies are sold at $59.

90,000 * $59 = $5,310,000.

So they/Capcom lost a bare minimum 15 million US dollars on the project's negative costs (not including any kind of advertising budget or post-production stuff) so far! Oh, and let's take into account that they/Capcom don't see anything like $59 from a sale of the game, and furthermore my Euro funny numbers are truly generous.

 

[legend166]

Let's be generous and say they sold double as much in Europe. 90,000 total. Now let's be generous and say that GRiN is receiving 100% of all copies sold and all copies are sold at $59.

90,000 * $59 = $5,310,000.

So they/Capcom lost a bare minimum 15 million US dollars on the project's negative costs (not including any kind of advertising budget or post-production stuff) so far! Oh, and let's take into account that they/Capcom don't see anything like $59 from a sale of the game, and furthermore my Euro funny numbers are truly generous.

I like that both our posts started with 'Let's be generous', yet I was still completely below you :lol

 

[plagiarize]

I've also never seen a punchout commercial.

i've seen a bunch. also for Infamous and UFC. wouldn't be able to say which i saw most advertised.

unless we can find out the advertising budgets of the games, we'll never really be able to tell how well advertised a game is. no one on GAF can watch every channel for 24 hours a day to do any kind of valid comparison.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I like that both our posts started with 'Let's be generous', yet I was still completely below you :lol

I'm a generous guy!

Spoiler

I do need to lol that our posts were both in the exact same format and flow though!

 

[GodofWine]

I don't think anyone is hyping Uncharted 2 to be the game to change PS3's sales trend. I think the price cut is the current "wait for..." rather than any game.

This...there is no title that will make the PS3 double sales for more than a couple weeks at a time (well...perhaps GT5..actually, GT5 should make a impact)

There was no software that caused X360 to stop its slide in 2008, it was a nice sized price cut and BOOM, big sales increase. If it wasn't for that price drop, there is no reason to suspect the trend of the PS3 selling more units per month would have changed.

Its old news, but PS3 needs a price drop.

----Based on the month in general, I don't think PS3 sales were that bad, all things considered.

 

[dammitmattt]

How are any of those (except possibly Beatles) system sellers. They're sequels to existing games. Madden has had what, 4 next generation iterations by now? Why would 10 make someone jump in if they hadn't before? Who's buying a console for Assassin's Creed 2 that didn't already have one for Assassin's Creed 1? Same with Modern Warfare.

I don't see how they're system sellers at all. They're pretty much the definition of selling to the existing base.

Sequels are frequently system sellers because their predecessors come out of nowhere and grow through word of mouth. Are you saying that Mario 2/3 weren't systems sellers? Are you saying that GT2 wasn't a system-seller? Are you saying that Halo 2 wasn't a system seller? Are you saying that GTA:VC/SA weren't system sellers?

You need to open your mind and loosen your internal definition of a system seller. There could be countless reasons why people wait until a certain time period to buy a console, and the stalwart big fall releases can often be the last tiny bit of motivation.

For instance, random dude x has been watching his friend play COD4 for the past two years. He loves the game but just hasn't convinced himself that he can afford to jump in. However, that all changes this fall with the massive hoopla around MW2's release and he decides to jump in so he can be there in the party on day one. There's a million other scenarios you could also think of, but I hope you see the point.

 

[dammitmattt]

the difference is that summer movies generally only stay on screens for a couple of weeks, unless they're big hits or you have a large multiplex to go to, and TV shows are only on at a very specific time.

Nintendo could easily convince people to go out there day one. They just choose not to spend that type of marketing dollar. It's a fine strategy for now, but as the Wii's install base grows, they might want to think about making their casual launches more event-like.

a video game is more like a DVD in that the customer knows it's going to be in stores for months if not years. i don't see most people rushing out day 1 to buy a game or a DVD to be honest... but i don't think that's any kind of slam on the people making or advertising them.

DVD releases ARE events. They have massive first week sales. I remember that the first Pirates movie sold something like 10+ million units in it's first week. Disney also does an incredibly good job of making their DVD releases events.

 

[Zuhzuhzombie!!]

Can anyone source the 80K for Sacred 2 number?

Any other uncharting game numbers?

 

[nincompoop]

I want to know just how badly Klonoa and Munchables bomba'd. And Rhythm Heaven's second month sales would be nice, too.

 

[Haunted]

Man, Bionic Commando. :/


I'm pretty sure this won't help Judd's position in the company.

 

[farnham]

do we have top 20s..?

 

[Scrubking]

Interview in Swedish, page 10

From this interview in Swedish magazine Gamereactor the CEO of Grin Bo Andersson said that Bionic Commando cost a little over 150 000 000 Swedish kronor (roughly 19.531.250 dollars) to make ...

Now lets do the math GAF. How much did Capcom lose when they sold only 30.000 copies? Could we estimate the copies sold in Europe and get that figure in too?

I wonder how long Capcom is going to continue ignoring the Wii.

 

[Vinci]

It's a fine strategy for now, but as the Wii's install base grows, they might want to think about making their casual launches more event-like.

If anything should get this treatment, it's WSR, Wii Fit Plus, and NSMB Wii. Seriously, they should scream all three of those to hell and back. I'm expecting good marketing for them actually, but perhaps not on the level of 'event' status.

 

[jmdajr]

Interview in Swedish, page 10

From this interview in Swedish magazine Gamereactor the CEO of Grin Bo Andersson said that Bionic Commando cost a little over 150 000 000 Swedish kronor (roughly 19.531.250 dollars) to make ...

Now lets do the math GAF. How much did Capcom lose when they sold only 30.000 copies? Could we estimate the copies sold in Europe and get that figure in too?

horrible

 

[Hiro_Kunimi_80]

No top 20 Or Halo Vs Killzone numbers this month ?

 

[sixteen-bit]

Didn't Bionic Commando Rearmed sell 130,000 units it's first week?
Wow @ BC 2009.

 

[dammitmattt]

No top 20 Or Halo Vs Killzone numbers this month ?

It's still early and we haven't heard anything from Matt or from Wired, where we usually get the Top 20s.

 

[Kunan]

Was just looking back at the May 2008 thread, as it's always neat to look back on how everyone reacted to things one year ago:

So yeah Wii Play..just die already...sick of seeing you month after month.

Wii Play continued to tease everyone.

For some reason I was expecting cataclysmal level Wii Fit numbers, so I'm kind of underwhelmed Next month should prove to be interesting either in numbers or meltdowns though.

Wii Fit started off with a questionable start of around 700k units. Some thought it was going to be a moderate success, some thought it would become a gigantic success and some thought it was going to be a drop in the pond.

No, GTA counts because its fucking hardcore, man.

Who can forget when it was suddenly decided that GTA was now hardcore instead of for everyone.

Man I really expected better numbers for PS3 and 360. And I guess the 2:1 for GTA was mostly true. This whole year is going to be remembered as "Wait until ______."

This one still applies to this day.

That was back when Sony PR was at its comedic best. And of course, the epic Mama Robotnik gif of off topic separating from the gaming discussion, only ever topped by the one about E3 and NPD in the same week :lol :lol



SPECIAL MENTION:

Boom Blox?

word of mouth is the best commercial actually


BOOM BLOX

ADVERTISE IT

Indeed that did work in retrospect! Now there's even a sequel.

 

[sixteen-bit]

After BC, I have to wonder what Capcom's sales predictions are for Dark Void

 

[forgeforsaken]

Did anyone post an updated market share graph? If so could you point me to it?

Thanks.

 

[Barrett2]

After BC, I have to wonder what Capcom's sales predictions are for Dark Void

He doesn't have dreadlocks, so that's a plus. But based on early videos, looks like it suffers the same "pew pew pew" shooting that BC had. Capcom needs to learn that Americans want their characters to have big effin' guns. Devs often seem to overlook how underwhelming an action game can be in which you hurl spitballs for ten hours.



And anyone who thinks Conduit will outsell Punchout.... shamwow....

 

[jmdajr]

After BC, I have to wonder what Capcom's sales predictions are for Dark Void

I guess they had to have a bomb eventually.
Dead Rising and Lost Planet were both risks that paid off.
DMC4 did decent and Re5 and SF4 are very successful.(obviously)

I just never thought the bomb would be that fucking hard for such an expensive game.

I know dead rising 2 is not from a japanese developer but I still believe it will do great numbers. Lost planet 2 isnt going to crash either.

unrelated- any bets on bayonetta sales?
I fear the worst.