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Official December NPD Prediction Thread (Pachter kills EVERYBODY! Bow down!!!)

A

ascii42

Member
xblarcade said:
Wow, it looks like at least 6 million sellers for 2008 for the 360? Anyone have an idea what is the record for most million sellers for a Console in one calendar year???
Click to expand...
Hmm, I'm pretty sure the PS2 has the record. I think there are about 200 million sellers on the system total. I'm not sure how many of those made a million in one year though,
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
ascii42 said:
Hmm, I'm pretty sure the PS2 has the record. I think there are about 200 million sellers on the system total. I'm not sure how many of those made a million in one year though,
Click to expand...

You're counting worldwide. This thread is USA.
 
J

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
Stumpokapow said:
Based on the IGN Wii LTDs, public NPD data, and selective leaked data (for the reason that leaked data is included, I will round to the nearest 100k so as to disguise the nature and number of data that is not allowed to be used), the INDIVIDUAL SKU top 10 would include.

Halo 3 (~4.1 million + December)
Wii Play (~3.0 million + December)
Call of Duty 4 360 (~1.6m + December)
Mario Party 8 (~1.4 million + December)
Madden 360 (~1.1 million + December)
Super Mario Galaxy (~1.1 million + December)
Guitar Hero 2 360 (~1.0 million + December, data might be off by a bit)
Assassin's Creed 360 (~0.9 million + December)
Guitar Hero 3 360 (~0.9 million + December--but this might be thrown off by the fact that individual SKUs might separate GH3 and GH3 w/guitar)
Super Paper Mario (~0.8 million + December)

That's what I have. Now, if you include the DS/PSP, Diddy Kong Racing and Pokemon DP should both be there. I'm also ignoring the possibility that anything not on the top 10 going into December would overtake any of these.

Resistance is around 600k year to date (missing November AFAIK) and I don't have numbers for MotorStorm past month one. With an aggressive December Assassin's Creed and COD4 could potentially also be up in the contender range.
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I'm a little confused. This is Wii and 360 only, correct? If not, where is GH2, GH3 and Madden for the PS2. Also, what do you mean by "indivisual SKU?" The numbers you use for Halo 3 and Assassin's Creed are their combined SKU totals, but then you have a note on GH3 360.
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
JJConrad said:
I'm a little confused. This is Wii and 360 only, correct? If not, where is GH2, GH3 and Madden for the PS2. Also, what do you mean by "indivisual SKU?" The numbers you use for Halo 3 and Assassin's Creed are their combined SKU totals, but then you have a note on GH3 360.
Click to expand...

I only track combined SKU totals. NPD's individual SKU totals will not track it. The note that applies to GH3 also applies to Halo and AC. I didn't note on these because with GH3 it's likely that it won't chart unless SKUs are combined, whereas both Halo and AC will chart regardless. The numbers were more meant as a rough guide as to where I was coming from then to be "What NPD will release".

As for PS2; didn't even cross my mind to include it because when I since I lost my hard drive in October, when I rebuilt my spreadsheets I just never bothered recovering all the various leaked and legit PS2 data. So those omissions are mea culpa.

Re-including PS2 also indicates to me that there will be several more than 10 million sellers this year. Cool. Last year's 10th place was 1 million flat but this year's should be better than that.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
popcorn.gif

hennesy_vs.jpg

BSB_Speed%20Lubricant.jpg


Well, I'm ready. Let's get this party started.
 
goldenpp72

goldenpp72

Member
Actually I would say 360 has 15 FOR SURE million sellers, with a good 20-30 others who will possibly do it.

For sures

Burnout paradise
Fable 2
Halo wars
PES 9
Fifa 09
Madden 09
NFS 2008
COD5
Guitar hero 4
GTA4
NG2
Rainbow six 2
Saints row 2
Splinter cell 5
Too human

Maybes

UT3
Banjo 3
Star wars FU
Soul calibur 4
SH5
Brother in arms
Turok 5
Army of two
Battlefield bad company
Devil may cry 4
Bionic commando
Borderlands
Mafia 2
Mercs 2
Midnight club LO

Unlikely

Lego batman
Lego indiana jones
Brutal legend
Ghostbusters 3
Lost odyssey
Iron man
Infinited undiscovery
Tales of vesperia
Last remnant
Tomb raider U

This is assuming alan wake and re5 do not launch, and no other games hit, and nothing is delayed :p
 
goldenpp72

goldenpp72

Member
Tomb raider legend barely broke the half million mark if I recall, so on 360, no, I don't expect it to easily make a million if at all.
 
goldenpp72

goldenpp72

Member
Well my thoughts on DMC4 will be that it sells a lot on both consoles but doesn't break a million on either for a very long time, dead rising and lost planet did break the million mark but.. one was a shooter and the other very western, and 360 exclusive for a long time.

I hope it does though :)
 
goldenpp72

goldenpp72

Member
Well lego star wars 2 hasn't done it yet on 360 but its supposed to be close, but id say their more likely for wii than 360.

Also I don't know how popular batman/indiana jones are compared to star wars.
 
J

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
Stumpokapow said:
You're counting worldwide. This thread is USA.
Click to expand...
Even in the just the USA, the PS2 had over 100 million selling titles.


Here are the Top 10 YTD though June (as posted on Neo-GAF).

01. NDS Pokemon Diamond Version
02. Wii Play w/ Remote
03. NDS Pokemon Pearl Version
04. PS2 God of War II
05. PS2 Guitar Hero 2 w/ Guitar
06. 360 Guitar Hero 2 w/ Guitar
07. Wii Mario Party 8
08. 360 Crackdown
09. NDS Diddy Kong Racing
10. Wii Legend of Zelda Twilight Princess

Most people were estimating Zelda at >500k at the time. GoW2 was already at (and most likely past) a million by that time.
 
J

Jammy

Banned
Lego Star Wars: The Complete Saga sold REALLY well on Wii in November. With December's NPD numbers, I can see that game having an LTD of near 600,000 on that system alone.
 
P

Penguin

Member
schuelma said:
I'm honestly surprised at this. Nintendo must have shipped out a decent amount afterall.
Click to expand...

Nintendo has been creating a fake shortage confirmed!

Hoarding until Dec.

For shame on them!
 
Minsc

Minsc

Gold Member
BenjaminBirdie said:
Wow, did he mean Wii beat the 360 in software?

MEGATON.
Click to expand...

Probably only in quantity, when it's broken down to a dollar amount, the 360 is likely higher.

jmdajr said:
Did nintendo 3rd party sell worth a damn?
Click to expand...

The third party games which are actually any good, and appealing to consumers generally aren't on the Wii. Luckily, the system has 1st party, or else it'd have nothing.
 
T

thestopsign

Member
BenjaminBirdie said:
Wow, did he mean Wii beat the 360 in software?

MEGATON.
Click to expand...

Well, it definitely could of, I think the Wii will be almost even with the 360 hardware wise after December so it wouldn't be a huge stretch. Plus expect Mario and Sonic to put up huge numbers in addition to great sales by the other Mario games out there, and I guess Wii Play should get a mention.

Edit: Minsc, that is horrible logic, and an argument that has failed many times before.
 
W

WinFonda

Member
Matt has a habit of overstating Nintendo's success in the NPDs.

Just fyi.

I don't doubt that NDS and Wii are on top, though.
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
Stopsign said:
Well, it definitely could of, I think the Wii will be almost even with the 360 hardware wise after December so it wouldn't be a huge stretch. Plus expect Mario and Sonic to put up huge numbers in addition to great sales by the other Mario games out there, and I guess Wii Play should get a mention.

Edit: Minsc, that is horrible logic, and an argument that has failed many times before.
Click to expand...

I really doubt it, the 360 still led by about 2 million units after November NPD right?

I'm sure he meant that the 360 hardware was just behind the Wii, likely due to Wii shortages.

I'm guessing within 200k of one another.
 
L

Leonsito

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Now that's interesting. Mario must have really torn it up in December.

Shortage relative to demand, yes. :p
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Well, I meant, theorically Wii was sold out in November, and Nintendo can only make 1.8M Wii worldwide, I expected Wii to not reaching a million in NA.
 
D

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
i think it's just bad grammar there

he means wii tops in hardware, software did very well

360 just behind wii in hardware
 
N

[Nintex]

Member
Leonsito said:
Well, I meant, theorically Wii was sold out in November, and Nintendo can only make 1.8M Wii worldwide, I expected Wii to not reaching a million in NA.
Click to expand...
If you look at Nintendo's financial reports everything becomes clear. If you take any NPD month the best case scenario for Europe and Media Create and Famitsu combined you never get to 1.8 million.
 
F

felipeko

Member
Leonsito said:
Well, I meant, theorically Wii was sold out in November, and Nintendo can only make 1.8M Wii worldwide, I expected Wii to not reaching a million in NA.
Click to expand...
They were making 1.8M for months... But they haven't been shipping it all...
 
L

Leonsito

Member
[Nintex] said:
If you look at Nintendo's financial reports everything becomes clear. If you take any NPD month the best case scenario for Europe and Media Create and Famitsu combined you never get to 1.8 million.
Click to expand...

So Nintendo is nailing the shipments... In Europe there was stock in some countries, and in Japan the few weeks before Holidays were slow until WiiFit reached... makes sense.
 
N

[Nintex]

Member
Leonsito said:
So Nintendo is nailing the shipments... In Europe there was stock in some countries, and in Japan the few weeks before Holidays were slow until WiiFit reached... makes sense.
Click to expand...
Nintendo will never run out of systems and that seems to be their goal. High sales, low production, high demand. They can keep the price and the demand up and the retail channels won't be able to handle 1.8 million Wii's a month anyway.
 
Minsc

Minsc

Gold Member
Stopsign said:
Edit: Minsc, that is horrible logic, and an argument that has failed many times before.
Click to expand...

Well if you want to go that way, the whole question is screwed, there's so many exceptions you have to make, in the end you have more exceptions to the 3rd party don't sell than ones that actually don't.

I'd say Wii's third party doesn't sell is about as fair a statement as saying Sony's 1st party doesn't sell.
 
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