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Official September 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

N

nextgeneration

Member
[360] 400,000
[GBA] 70,000
[NDS] 480,000
[PS2] 250,000
[PS3] 140,000
[PSP] 300,000
[WII] 600,000

With Wii sales slowing down in Japan, I'm assuming more shipments of Wii's were made available for US.
 
A

Arsenal

Member
titiklabingapat said:
I wonder what kind of barometer people will use with the 360+Halo vs Wii+Wii Sports angle when the latest NPD numbers get posted.

If the 360 failed to outsell the Wii but came very close, will that be considered a failure? What if it only outsold the Wii by the same razor thin margin? Does it need to do a home run? What's the GAf consensus on this thing?
Click to expand...

IMO, comparisons between the 360 and the Wii are not really very useful. Wii is going to dominate this generation no matter what happens this month or this holiday. I think the 360 will outsell the Wii this month in the US, and maybe even with some holiday months in the US due to shortages, but its not going to matter. Considering the worldwide and longterm picture - Nintendo is just operating on a different level than everyone else.

Halo will be a success if it can help Microsoft turn the corner and be profitable this generation. Period. Obviously this quarter is going to be profitable for them, but what Halo really needs to provide is that little extra boost that will help them be profitable in the subsequent quarters. Halo is only a part of their overall profitability picture, but it is kind of the cornerstone since it will drive hardware sales and XBL subs. Not to be dramatic about it, but if MS cannot find a way to achieve profitability from here on out in this generation, I believe we will be looking at a significantly different approach in the next generation. As much as I love the Wii, I don't believe we really want everyone taking that approach to gaming.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
BishopLamont said:
Everyones sub 300k PSP makes me weep, I think I'm far offbase with 390k. :lol
Click to expand...
You're in good company. :) It's the most guess-tastic of my numbers, though.
nextgeneration said:
With Wii sales slowing down in Japan, I'm assuming more shipments of Wii's were made available for US.
Click to expand...
It's not as simple as flip a switch, 30K Wiis moved from Japan to the US. There are differences (big or small) in hardware, packaging, documentation so they can't just immediately move one surplus to another region. To have an effect on the numbers in the US, it woul take them noticing the slowdown in Japan, deciding it's a long-enough term thing that it's not worth waiting for demand catching back up in the immediate future, changing production ratios, and then travel time for it to ship over the ocean.

The Wii Japan slowdown appears to have started late August, but didn't reach sub-30K/week until mid-September. I doubt they would've had time to make some change that would be noticeable in the US September NPD period, even if they decided it wasn't wise to just continue stocking for the holiday there.
 
N

nextgeneration

Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
It's not as simple as flip a switch, 30K Wiis moved from Japan to the US. There are differences (big or small) in hardware, packaging, documentation so they can't just immediately move one surplus to another region. To have an effect on the numbers in the US, it woul take them noticing the slowdown in Japan, deciding it's a long-enough term thing that it's not worth waiting for demand catching back up in the immediate future, changing production ratios, and then travel time for it to ship over the ocean. The Wii Japan slowdown appears to have started late August, but didn't reach sub-30K/week until mid-September. I doubt they would've had time to make some change that would be noticeable in the US September NPD period, even if they decided it wasn't wise to just continue stocking for the holiday there.
Click to expand...

Hmm, good point. Maybe I should revise my numbers. ;) Screw it, I'll just leave them as is....no biggie.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
titiklabingapat said:
I wonder what kind of barometer people will use with the 360+Halo vs Wii+Wii Sports angle when the latest NPD numbers get posted.

If the 360 failed to outsell the Wii but came very close, will that be considered a failure? What if it only outsold the Wii by the same razor thin margin? Does it need to do a home run? What's the GAf consensus on this thing?
Click to expand...

If the 360 barely outsells the Wii, I'd consider that very telling, and not much of a "victory." MS would have used their largest, most powerful weapon for all of this generation (along with all of the associated marketing blitz).. and for what? To barely outsell the Wii, which had no notable releases last month?

Like I said.. it'd be telling.
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
HylianTom said:
If the 360 barely outsells the Wii, I'd consider that very telling, and not much of a "victory." MS would have used their largest, most powerful weapon for all of this generation (along with all of the associated marketing blitz).. and for what? To barely outsell the Wii, which had no notable releases last month?

Like I said.. it'd be telling.
Click to expand...

Barely outselling the Wii when your main SKU is $100 more would be very telling...wouldn't it? If anything, it would tell people that with the proper mix of price, marketing, and software, the HD boxes do stand a chance in the world according to Nintendo. That's a pretty important message, especially for the Sony camp.

And if we look at it from MS' perspective, their objective this fall has always been to bury the PS3. They even said so a few weeks back with their bold 'guarantee' of victory over Sony. Selling at a mainstream rate when neither console has reached a mainstream pricepoint would make it even tougher for the PS3 to comeback. You must remember, as little as 3 months ago MS fully intended for GTAIV, Too Human, Splinter Cell, and Lost Odyssey to be out this fall as well, on top of Halo/Orange Box/Bioshock/Mass Effect/Madden/Guitar Hero/COD4 and the price drops and the new game bundles.

They aren't fucking around, they wanted to put up Wii-like numbers this holiday season despite the price point.
 
B

Belgorim

Member
ok, what the hell, I will give this another shot :p

[360] 435k
[GBA] 80k
[NDS] 505k
[PS2] 240k
[PS3] 170k
[PSP] 275k
[WII] 510k
 
X

Xeke

Banned
Sho_Nuff82 said:
Barely outselling the Wii when your main SKU is $100 more would be very telling...wouldn't it? If anything, it would tell people that with Halo 3 the HD boxes do stand a chance in the world according to Nintendo. That's a pretty important message, especially for the Sony camp.

And if we look at it from MS' perspective, their objective this fall has always been to bury the PS3. They even said so a few weeks back with their bold 'guarantee' of victory over Sony. Selling at a mainstream rate when neither console has reached a mainstream pricepoint would make it even tougher for the PS3 to comeback. You must remember, as little as 3 months ago MS fully intended for GTAIV, Too Human, Splinter Cell, and Lost Odyssey to be out this fall as well, on top of Halo/Orange Box/Bioshock/Mass Effect/Madden/Guitar Hero/COD4 and the price drops and the new game bundles.

They aren't fucking around, they wanted to put up Wii-like numbers this holiday season despite the price point.
Click to expand...

More like it.
 
S

Stop It

Perfectly able to grasp the inherent value of the fishing game.
[360] 460k
[GBA] 80k
[NDS] 480k
[PS2] 190k
[PS3] 150k
[PSP] 230k
[WII] 475k

It'll be close at the top, but Wii will stay unbeaten, somehow.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
I was looking back at the monthly/quarterly/yearly results from the last thread, and I thought it was a fun coincidence that for the year so far the top 3 are in order a Nintendo guy (me), an Xbox guy (GhaleonEB), and a Sony cowboy (guess).
 
D

donny2112

Member
I haven't heard back from sonycowboy about doing an official software prediction setup for this month, yet. If I do, I'll be sure to post it here and update Post #3 of this thread. In the meantime, here's my top 12 (in case Halo 3 is combined across versions).

1. 360 HALO 3 1600k
2. 360 HALO 3 LEGENDARY 800K
3. 360 HALO 3 LE 500K
4. PS2 MADDEN 08 400K
5. WII PLAY W/ REMOTE 278k
6. WII METROID PRIME 3: CORRUPTION 220k
7. 360 MADDEN 08 215K
8. 360 STRANGLEHOLD 210K
9. NDS ZELDA: PHANTOM HOURGLASS 200K
10. NDS BRAIN AGE 2: MORE TRAINING 180K
11. PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR 178k
12. WII MARIO PARTY 8 175K
Click to expand...

Edit:
JoshuaJSlone said:
I was looking back at the monthly/quarterly/yearly results from the last thread, and I thought it was a fun coincidence that for the year so far the top 3 are in order a Nintendo guy (me), an Xbox guy (GhaleonEB), and a Sony cowboy (guess).
Click to expand...

180px-HandsAcrossAmerica.jpg


"We are the world ..."
 
B

BishopLamont

Banned
Sho_Nuff82 said:
Barely outselling the Wii when your main SKU is $100 more would be very telling...wouldn't it? If anything, it would tell people that with the proper mix of price, marketing, and software, the HD boxes do stand a chance in the world according to Nintendo. That's a pretty important message, especially for the Sony camp.

And if we look at it from MS' perspective, their objective this fall has always been to bury the PS3. They even said so a few weeks back with their bold 'guarantee' of victory over Sony. Selling at a mainstream rate when neither console has reached a mainstream pricepoint would make it even tougher for the PS3 to comeback. You must remember, as little as 3 months ago MS fully intended for GTAIV, Too Human, Splinter Cell, and Lost Odyssey to be out this fall as well, on top of Halo/Orange Box/Bioshock/Mass Effect/Madden/Guitar Hero/COD4 and the price drops and the new game bundles.

They aren't fucking around, they wanted to put up Wii-like numbers this holiday season despite the price point.
Click to expand...

Yes but the 360 has been out longer and has a better lineup than the Wii, it's been selling almost as bad as the original Xbox itself. Regardless it's the chosen Spiritual successor to the PS2 in terms of software numbers and it will only do better from here on out when the price gets even better down the line.
 
B

BishopLamont

Banned
JoshuaJSlone said:
I was looking back at the monthly/quarterly/yearly results from the last thread, and I thought it was a fun coincidence that for the year so far the top 3 are in order a Nintendo guy (me), an Xbox guy (GhaleonEB), and a Sony cowboy (guess).
Click to expand...

It's also how the console war will end up looking like.
 
T

toxk_02

Black Republican
[PS2] 227k
[PS3] 132k
[PSP] 260k
[360] 412k
[WII] 510k
[NDS] 465k
[GBA] 69K
[GCN] 7k

Don't feel great about these.
 
A

_Alkaline_

Member
I think some are overestimating Metroid Prime 3's September sales. Not only is Metroid not exactly a big franchise, but games typically sell best in their first week, which is pretty much what the last NPD counted. It should still do well, but don't expect it to sell more than it did last month.

If it does, then you can bring this up and laugh at me.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
[360] 427K Halo 3 bump + five weeks
[GBA] 70K Finally headed into well-deserved retirement.
[NDS] 440K Zelda!
[PS2] 195K Please die already, you are slowing the next-gen!
[PS3] 137K Oh Sony!
[PSP] 250K Slim model and some good software.
[WII] 415K Supply constrained . . . but why?
[NGC] 3K Still a great system for kids
[xbx] 28 ;-)
 
D

DayShallCome

Member
[NDS] 520k
[WII] 490k
[360] 365k
[PSP] 245k
[PS2] 230k
[PS3] 155k
[GBA] 87k

I don't know if it's appropriate to put explanations for predictions here, so you can check out a writeup of my predictions at my blog: niceskybox.com.
 
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