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Theres Nothing Xbox Can Do to Close Gap Between PS4, Says Pachter
- Thread starter Cow Goes Moo
- Start date
ThomasAnderson
Member
Realistically speaking MS can come back. The Rockstar example is a reach but something similar could happen. Acquiring the right studio and a continued focus on 1st party COULD change things. The focus on 1st party is the strategy Sony used last generation and look at them now. And where is the fun in a one horse race? Or is that what people want?
It worked for Sony last generation because the PlayStation has brand power outside of the US and the U.K. That's all that MS has, so no it's pretty much impossible for them.
I sincerely doubt that Xbox One as we know it will still be on the market in 5 years.
Also Microsoft shows no attempt to win the WW market. 90% of the nations they've talked about has been US, UK and China.
I was just surprised that you didn't mention that aspect, but your totally right..
Although it is sad, since 360 added value in Japanese releases, for a bit anyway.
It seemed like they stopped giving a shit the second FF13 came out and they got the 'big one' so to speak
DasPenguin
Member
Personally I don't care about who wins. I was a 360 player last gen like many other Scandinavian players. The way MS presented their U.S. only console combined with the ridiculous reason for delay (localization, really?) was pretty much a death blow. Why would the customer here buy an Xbox One, when the competition has a similar, more powerful, cheaper alternative that you can buy a year or so earlier? It's a complete lost cause in Scandinavia and in mainland Europe. There is no coming back this gen. Sony made a better console and it's a more familiar brand to people.
But hey, at least you can find Xbox in stores still. I haven't seen a Wii U in local supermarkets in like 6 months. You would think they have stopped selling it altogether.
Killroyskbg
Member
Just anecdotal evidence but while many of my friends owned a 360 last gen (many also had a ps3) almost no one own a Xbox one. Live in Sweden.
3rdamention
Member
See, as we get further from the Xbox Reveal, it seems that the narrative somewhat changes about how the Xbox One was revealed . Phil Spencer never said "I didn't agree with some of the policies that were put in place for the reveal of the console!"
He Monday Morning Quarterbacked it, and in hindsight, said some of the policies werent best for the current climate. He didn't think some of the policies were the best choice, when looking at how the community reacted to them. And after the way the community reacted to the reveal, then felt that they didn't do a very good job capturing their target market's interests. If someone comes up with an idea, reveals it to people and they aren't interested, or upset by policies around the idea, or dont like the price, or simply say they aren't going to buy it, Anyone in their right mind is going to say, in hindsight, "Those weren't good policies!"
Bear Force One
Banned
I mean I laughed. So kudos!
PS3 was ever behind launch aligned worldwide. It had nothing to catch up to.
People forget this oh so often and think it was a first party games thing that Sony made the comeback. The brand is strong worldwide and outside of the US, the ps3 was outselling the 360 even with the higher price from the release.
infiniteheteroskdasticity
Member
This is stating what has been painfully obvious for more than a year. A best case sales scenario for the Xbox One would be a narrow win in North America when its all said and done. This would be pissing into the wind of global sales where the PS4 would still outsell it at a very conservative 3-1 ratio. I don't actually think there's much time left in this generation anyway so that's another factor. Expect to start hearing early rumors about the next Xbox and the next Playstation late next year with formal launches in 2018 at the latest.
I don't think Microsoft needs to win the sales battle to stay relevant. The remainder of the Xbox One's lifecycle will be all about positioning the brand for the next generation. It will be about winning back mindshare from Sony after the disastrous launch as well as keeping their IPs popular. In this, I think Microsoft is already succeeding. The Spencer/Nadella combo have helped wash away the negative stink from the launch, Halo 5 might not win may GOTY awards but its at least a step up from Halo 4 and there look to be some unique exclusives coming to the system. All this might not be enough to win the next generation but it will at least put them in a position to take advantage of any delays or slip ups from Sony as well as not start handicapped by the legacy of the Xbox One launch.
This business isn't about winning or losing, its about making money. I think Microsoft is increasingly well positioned for the future in gaming to do just that.
I don't think Microsoft needs to win the sales battle to stay relevant. The remainder of the Xbox One's lifecycle will be all about positioning the brand for the next generation. It will be about winning back mindshare from Sony after the disastrous launch as well as keeping their IPs popular. In this, I think Microsoft is already succeeding. The Spencer/Nadella combo have helped wash away the negative stink from the launch, Halo 5 might not win may GOTY awards but its at least a step up from Halo 4 and there look to be some unique exclusives coming to the system. All this might not be enough to win the next generation but it will at least put them in a position to take advantage of any delays or slip ups from Sony as well as not start handicapped by the legacy of the Xbox One launch.
This business isn't about winning or losing, its about making money. I think Microsoft is increasingly well positioned for the future in gaming to do just that.
eighty(one)
Member
I read this and think: 'straw man' argument; a valiant spin on semantics.
To me, what you're stating could equally read for Apple or Google, it's very moot. Apple Mac computers have a larger share now, than they once did. OSX is a great OS, but people predominantly do not game on macs - but - they do game (millions and millions) on iOS devices; now because iOS shares a kernel of OSX, we're counting all of those device gamers as Mac Gamers. The same can be said of Google Chrome OS and Android.
I don't think so.
Just because MS makes Windows OS - doesn't mean people are playing PC for Windows, they need an OS to run a machine to play Steam. Not a machine because they want Windows. It's the handle on the door, not the door they're opening for games.
The Artisan
Member
wanna give a reason for prediction brah?
I do still think that the Xbox will get a sales boost once it drops to 199 to 249.
Just thinking that there are many people out their who owned both last gen systems and just bought the PS4 first this time around (due to all the facts we know ...)
I am not saying that MS will "win" or anything but I think they still have most of these potential "multi-console-customers" in front of them and Sony doesn´t have them anymore.
Just thinking that there are many people out their who owned both last gen systems and just bought the PS4 first this time around (due to all the facts we know ...)
I am not saying that MS will "win" or anything but I think they still have most of these potential "multi-console-customers" in front of them and Sony doesn´t have them anymore.
It's not about what we want or not. It's just common sense at this point, it would take way, way more than a huge exclusivity and solid 1st party games to change that.
RichiRamjag
Member
Even still, there isn't enough to differentiate both consoles. That's the biggest issue. I've brought and sold maybe 4 Xbox ones and I'm on my fifth (I make profit on them so it's no big deal). Personally, I don't like MS exclusives as much as I thought I would have and it constantly bothers me that I've got an extra system going unused. I think both consoles are too similar to justify both, even if you have the money. That in my opinion is a big cause of the problem.
Bear Force One
Banned
Worldwide
They have never had a chance. Last gen looked better only to people who focus on the US alone.
There is still a large pool of potential customers that don't own any current gen systems at all. So I'm not sure how much importance can really be lended to the idea that XB1 can gain substantial ground from people buying multiple consoles.
And purely anecdotally from the people I interact with here in NYC, those who are casually interested in video games almost always bring up the PS4 and not Xbox One. Sony brand recognition for this current console gen is huge at the moment.
XB1 will certainly get a bit of a bump from those of us that will buy one as their second console at some point to play exclusives on that platform, but I don't foresee it being substantial. People applied the same theory of "second console choice" for potential Wii U sales spikes which did not pan out, and that's certainly a console ripe with quality exclusives.
This is where I am. I could easily buy an X1. The wife and I actually went out to buy it one Sunday and came back home with the Rockband 4 Band In A Box bundle. I already have a PS4, PC and Wii U hooked up to the living room TV. I'm out of HDMI ports now. That's how unsure I am about whether or not I need an X1, an HDMI port stopped me. And the 360 was my main console last gen. Microsoft fucked up.
I mean it's going to be almost impossible for Microsoft to catch up to Sony before the generations over, but I do think that they will finish the gen with sales closer to a 1:1 ratio with Sony than they have right now.
We have already seen both systems branch off in their own directions and offering completely different experiences unlike the first year where it was basically multi-plats or bust. The XBO will have more and more things to offer PS4 owners that owning both systems will not be a "waste of money" so to speak.
I am also very interested to see how Microsoft will roll out W10 across XBO. If they do it right it could be a huge deal.
I have to say that I'm really pleased with how Microsoft are handling the XBO since Phil got in. They have done major damage control and deserve props for that.
We have already seen both systems branch off in their own directions and offering completely different experiences unlike the first year where it was basically multi-plats or bust. The XBO will have more and more things to offer PS4 owners that owning both systems will not be a "waste of money" so to speak.
I am also very interested to see how Microsoft will roll out W10 across XBO. If they do it right it could be a huge deal.
I have to say that I'm really pleased with how Microsoft are handling the XBO since Phil got in. They have done major damage control and deserve props for that.
Worldwide or North America?
This is pure delusion, there's nothing realistic about it. Reality has nothing to do with what people want.
DannyDanger
Member
Worldwide is even more of a lost cause than ever
That whole "Tier 2" label was pretty much an insult
That whole "Tier 2" label was pretty much an insult
Lol is there a point to suggesting potential outcomes with an absolute 0 percent chance of coming to fruition?
3rdamention
Member
Going into next week, starting tomorrow , With Xbox One being $50 more than a PS4 sure as Hell isn't going to help catch up....
Katana_Strikes
Member
Did... did someone just predict the XBone will lead by the end of the gen?! Well there's always one...
They can't beat Sony in their home territory fighting for their lives. They've got no chance anywhere else.
They can't beat Sony in their home territory fighting for their lives. They've got no chance anywhere else.
RichiRamjag
Member
I'm not saying Xbox one is bad, but I wish I had gotten the Rockband in a box instead lol, you made the right call. This isn't a slight at MS, there just personally aren't many reasons for me to own one in addition to my PC, PS4, Wii U.
Neuromancer
Member
People really think that MS had a shot on catching up on a 2:1 sales difference? Has such a thing ever happened with any console in the history of video games?
The Artisan
Member
fuck no
Things are changing, somewhat. Unreal Engine 4 has a Mac version that works just fine, and I've made a couple projects entirely in OSX without touching Windows.
With a growing adoption rate of UE4 I think we might be seeing more people using that setup.
Well yeah. One just needs to look at SW charts and the few hw numbers we have.
Worldwide.
Source?
It is never going to get remotely close to 1:1 worldwide. The lead is far too massive this late in the game. The only place it has a chance of being close is in North America.
Sony is selling a bundle similar to their Black Friday deal for the next couple weeks of December if I recall correctly.
I don't think that Pachter gave out his complete reasoning for why the Xbone is doomed to second place. A complete explanation would be too long to really fit as a video response and would be better suited to an in-depth written analysis. As is, the simplified argument he gives isn't accurate, but it's a useful approximation for the viability of both products.
And of course, Pachter's conclusion is inescapable: the PS4 is simply a much better product than the Xbone, so there are no prospects of the latter overtaking the former. The PS4 winning out was pretty much determined by E3 2013. The only question was whether the Xbone can carve out a decent niche for itself. And we won't really know that for sure until the end of 2016 or beginning of 2017. So far, the Xbone's chances look fairly decent.
And of course, Pachter's conclusion is inescapable: the PS4 is simply a much better product than the Xbone, so there are no prospects of the latter overtaking the former. The PS4 winning out was pretty much determined by E3 2013. The only question was whether the Xbone can carve out a decent niche for itself. And we won't really know that for sure until the end of 2016 or beginning of 2017. So far, the Xbone's chances look fairly decent.
Probably not no. But I do think the gap will get smaller rather than wider by the end of the generation.
Marginally.
All signs lead to the XB1 having some respectable numbers come the end of this console cycle if they continue on their current improved trajectory.
ThomasAnderson
Member
Neuromancer
Member
The real question is what can Sony do to catch up to the biggest Halo launch and fastest-selling Xbox One exclusive game to-date, with more than $400 million in global sales of Halo 5: Guardians?
……forgetit
Member
The Vita was a special case, Sony lost faith in it because they thought the entire market was gone, and they were pretty much right too.
Neuromancer
Member
Bless your heart!
Katana_Strikes
Member
Haze 2: Electric Boogaloo.
Yup, I agree. It's a fine console in isolation but I already own too many other platforms with many of the same games in higher quality.
Actually, they would have to bundle two of them.
Most of the WW split estimates I've seen by salesGaf has:
Xbone: 65/35 U.S./RoW
PS4: 35/65 U.S./RoW
If, as many argue, the U.S. console market is either static or slowly contracting long-term, unless MS comes up with a viable strategy for rebuilding the Xbox brand outside the English-speaking countries (except New Zealand where PS4 I dominating, and Australia where IIRC the last Sony PR put their market share at about 60%), it's sales are weighed heavily in markets that aren't growing, outside of Mexico & Brazil.
Contrast that with Sony - leading in the core markets of NA & EU and, FWIW now, Japan. Leading in most of the BRICs (Brazil being impossible to ascertain due to the nature of the grey market there, I'll stick with official numbers that show Xbox in the lead) and most importantly, it's selling and capitalising on the brand recognition the PS2's long tail bought Sony in markets that, 10-15 years ago were nowhere, but now have consumer economies that can accomodate game consoles.
For all those who have said ' MS can come back.'...how?
If you don't use the flawed 'Sony comeback was based on solid 1st part, free PS+' narrative, which solely relates to North America, as your basis, how can MS make the Xbox brand relevant globally?
It is remarkable just how many incredibly unlikely (read: borderline impossible) things would have to happen for it to ever come true. It's like predicting you're going to be the person to win the Powerball next month. Sure, I mean, technically there is a chance. Maybe nuclear war breaks out in Europe and suffocates PS4 sales or something? There's a chance, see.
The Reboot is not Tomb Raider, that's the problem. Neither is Rise. It's just MODERN CHECKLIST GAME DESIGN masquerading as a beloved series. It may be "decent" at what it attempts to do - if you indeed like checklist cinematic game design - but it destroyed every single thing that made the series great, and replaced it with sterile garbage. It replaced something truly unique with something that every goddamned body is doing. I'm sure that's acceptable to many, but not for me. So, yeah, I'm gonna practically throw a party if it bombs. I'm tired of developers stripping every series of its individuality in reboots and "casual-izing" everything into oblivion. (And not that you did imply anything about me, but anyone can tell you I've hated this Reboot since the second I played TR2013. I've wrote quite detailed critiques of the game, so it's not kneejerk either. I was aghast frankly at how terrible it was.)