Support NeoGAF

[Winterblink]

The estimates are 65,000 stranded not millions.

Europe is metric.

*cymbal crash*

 

[gofreak]

Yeah, it would be more like millions' of passengers affected, but not necessarily stranded!

(From what Eurocontrol's said over the last few days...16000 flights were cancelled yesterday, 16000 cancelled today, 8000 on Thursday = ~40000 cancellations. Assuming an average of even only 50 passengers on each flight, and you're into multiple millions of passengers).

 

[The Orange]

The estimates are 65,000 stranded not millions.

So you don't think that 40,000 canceled flights is a big thing? Just because you aren't affected, doesn't make it any less serious.

 

[Tieno]

Does anyone else see a mischievous smile and two hands? Like it's plotting...

 

[Easy_D]

Does anyone else see a mischievous smile and two hands? Like it's plotting...

I also see a crazy sideways pompadour.

 

[Chittagong]

Of course not but some are trying to make this seem more dire than it is.

It was pretty big deal when 9/11 grounded planes in one country for bit more than a day.

Now almost an entire continent is grounded. Let's do some math. Let's assume

- Flights grounded for at least 3 days
- Some 25,000 flights are grounded a day
- The most common aircraft in Europe is A320 which takes on average 150 passangers
- The average fill rate of planes in Europe is around 75%
- 50% on every plane is outbound passangers, 50% returning (stranded)

=> 3 * 25,000 * 150 * 0,75 * 0,5 ≈ 4.2 million people stranded over the weekend

This also means that no spare parts, air cargo fruit, research materials / prototypes can travel. Football teams, race drivers, rock bands, politicians will miss their performances.

So yeah, it's a pretty big deal. And the worst part is that nobody knows how long it lasts. It could be days, weeks, months or years. The last time this volcano erupted it lasted more than a year.

 

[maniac-kun]

It was pretty big deal when 9/11 grounded planes in one country for bit more than a day.

Now almost an entire continent is grounded. Let's do some math. Let's assume

- Flights grounded for at least 3 days
- Some 25,000 flights are grounded a day
- The most common aircraft in Europe is A320 which takes on average 150 passangers
- The average fill rate of planes in Europe is around 75%
- 50% on every plane is outbound passangers, 50% returning (stranded)

=> 3 * 25,000 * 150 * 0,75 * 0,5 ≈ 4.2 million people stranded over the weekend

This also means that no spare parts, air cargo fruit, research materials / prototypes can travel. Football teams, race drivers, rock bands, politicians will miss their performances.

So yeah, it's a pretty big deal. And the worst part is that nobody knows how long it lasts. It could be days, weeks, months or years. The last time this volcano erupted it lasted more than a year.

its still possible that the way bigger vulcano next to this one erupts "soon" and then the real fun starts :lol
btw has someone a real livecam of the vulcano? with like 10+ fps?

 

[Timbuktu]

Looks like it might delay European football next week now. ah well, give torres more of a chance to face his old club.

And if any gaffers manage to take a photo of this thing, he should automatically the current smoke/fog/haze photo assignment.

 

[Eric_S]

This also means that no spare parts / prototypes can travel.

*Butchers quote*

Indeed it's hurtfull to the economy, and even for goods and services where you find ways around the problem, such as the things above, it still hurts economically. It hurts the companies on the buying side, those in need of the spare parts or prototypes. And it hurts the companies on the producing side, too as there might get tentions built up between the two parts and sales stall or go to the local competition (be it US or Euro) while the delivery of spareparts are uncertain.

 

[DrM]

Webcams are getting hammered right now

Anyway, steam eruption replaced by more ash--> Click

And some early morning shots on Youtube

 

[jepense]

It was pretty big deal when 9/11 grounded planes in one country for bit more than a day.

Now almost an entire continent is grounded.

This also means that no spare parts, air cargo fruit, research materials / prototypes can travel. Football teams, race drivers, rock bands, politicians will miss their performances.

So yeah, it's a pretty big deal. And the worst part is that nobody knows how long it lasts. It could be days, weeks, months or years. The last time this volcano erupted it lasted more than a year.

9/11 did see lots of people killed, so in that sense this situation is not as severe.
But the number of people affected by and the financial implication of such a complete shutdown are enormous.
Indeed the worst part is that the immediate future is unknown so it is difficult to plan ahead. And for the people who need to return from outside of Europe, it may be impossible to find alternative routes.

And some early morning shots on Youtube

This is cool. Love time lapse movies.

 

[Aegus]

And for the people who need to return from outside of Europe, it may be impossible to find alternative routes.

If Phileas Fogg

Spoiler

Michael Palin

can get around then I'm sure other people can.

I'm sort of curious to see what would happen if Kalta erupted.

 

[Wes]

And some early morning shots on Youtube

Sweet.

 

[jepense]

If Phileas Fogg

Spoiler

Michael Palin

can get around then I'm sure other people can.

OK, it's never impossible to reroute, of course, but most people simply may not be able to afford it.

 

[gofreak]

Well my flight's finally be cancelled. Now to try and figure out what to do...to try and reschedule or just forget the trip and get a refund.

 

[LQX]

It was pretty big deal when 9/11 grounded planes in one country for bit more than a day.

Now almost an entire continent is grounded. Let's do some math. Let's assume

- Flights grounded for at least 3 days
- Some 25,000 flights are grounded a day
- The most common aircraft in Europe is A320 which takes on average 150 passangers
- The average fill rate of planes in Europe is around 75%
- 50% on every plane is outbound passangers, 50% returning (stranded)

=> 3 * 25,000 * 150 * 0,75 * 0,5 ≈ 4.2 million people stranded over the weekend

This also means that no spare parts, air cargo fruit, research materials / prototypes can travel. Football teams, race drivers, rock bands, politicians will miss their performances.

So yeah, it's a pretty big deal. And the worst part is that nobody knows how long it lasts. It could be days, weeks, months or years. The last time this volcano erupted it lasted more than a year.

How many are dead? Is war looming? Again with the drama and of course 9/11 is brought up. Not saying its not important, hell they're wounded soldiers that have to fly all the way to America instead of to Germany for treatment. My main critique was just on those begging for title change with this alarmist tone and I have seen it in other threads like that explosion in Puerto Rico. Look we are aware of whats happening, why do we suddenly have to run around like chicken with there heads off just to create anxiety? I'm sure the thread title will soon be changed but my gosh calm down.

 

[Karma Kramer]

How many are dead? Is war looming? Again with the drama and of course 9/11 is brought up. Not saying its not important, hell they're wounded soldiers that have to fly all the way to America instead of to Germany for treatment. My main critique was just on those begging for title change with this alarmist tone and I have seen it in other threads like that explosion in Puerto Rico. Look we are aware of whats happening, why do we suddenly have to run around like chicken with there heads off just to create anxiety? I'm sure the thread title will soon be changed but my gosh calm down.

This could become a crisis if the volcano doesn't let up...

 

[gofreak]

There's no need for some alarmist title, but just a more accurate one. This is no longer about a few hundred people in Iceland getting evacuated. Those people aren't even affected anymore (at least at the moment) The ramifications are much broader now, even if they're not life or death!

 

[panda21]

i really hope this keeps going for another few weeks...

come on volcano you can do it!

 

[Forsete]

i really hope this keeps going for another few weeks...

come on volcano you can do it!

A few airline companies will fold though. Not that I care very much.

 

[Acidote]

Some Spanish (north-east mainly) airports are most probably cancelling national flights tomorrow.

 

[gofreak]

The Icelandic met office has put up a Q+A about the eruption:

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/1880

They say last night there was some lightning in the plume which would have been cool to see.

 

[Bisnic]

Does anyone else see a mischievous smile and two hands? Like it's plotting...

I see a dark cloud with some face smirking at us poor humans.

 

[DrM]

They say last night there was some lightning in the plume which would have been cool to see.

Indeed

 

[jepense]

How many are dead? Is war looming? Again with the drama and of course 9/11 is brought up. Not saying its not important, hell they're wounded soldiers that have to fly all the way to America instead of to Germany for treatment.

Pardon me, but that's quite an America-centric point of view. The same issues arise in the whole of Europe. Medical helicopters get grounded. In Norway, helicopter connections to offshore platforms were cut. Medical products are mostly transported by air as some need to reach their destinations quickly - those connections are cut. I haven't heard of anything severe happening due to these issues, but it's not like there couldn't be severe consequences if the situations lasts.

My main critique was just on those begging for title change with this alarmist tone and I have seen it in other threads like that explosion in Puerto Rico. Look we are aware of whats happening, why do we suddenly have to run around like chicken with there heads off just to create anxiety? I'm sure the thread title will soon be changed but my gosh calm down.

I'd say the current title and the OP are more alarmist than what was asked. :lol It's just that the situation has changed and the title is outdated. Yesterday it would have been actually useful to have it fixed since this was news; now it's mostly discussion and monitoring the situation, and a new title would merely be nice. No one is panicking, most are just pissed and worried.

 

[Karma Kramer]

Indeed

HOLY FUCK

 

[gofreak]

Indeed

Oh wow. I didn't know these were from this volcano, I thought they were 'stock' lightning-in-volcano images.

 

[Lonely1]

Indeed

Awezome.

 

[GasProblem]

 

[Trurl]

I see Mr. Angry Face in the bottom left corner.

 

[Lince]

Some Spanish (north-east mainly) airports are most probably cancelling national flights tomorrow.

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2010/04/17/espana/1271523107.html

Spain airports authorities just announced seven airports are already closed, more to follow suit since the cloud has already entered Spain from the North and making his way down.

 

[Keyser Soze]

 

[pestul]

Absolutely awesome shots with the lightning.

 

[GasProblem]

Lufthansa has done some succesful test flights on lower altitudes. KLM is also going to fly some test flights on lower altitudes tonight. Still, wouldn't feel comfortable flying while knowing there's an ashcloud above me

 

[DieH@rd]

Awezome.

YOU ARE NOT PREPARED!
/illidan stormrage

 

[gofreak]

Lufthansa has done some succesful test flights on lower altitudes. KLM is also going to fly some test flights on lower altitudes tonight. Still, wouldn't feel comfortblel flying while knowing there's an ashcloud above me

You know what kind of altitudes they're flying at?

I wonder how safe that is. In the UK there are dust plumes at 5000, 6000 ft...which is low.

You could do a test flight and not run into one, and think it's 'OK'. But the dust moves around, and so do the planes on different paths. I wonder what traffic control and the aviation authorities think of this...

 

[GasProblem]

You know what kind of altitudes they're flying at?

I wonder how safe that is. In the UK there are dust plumes at 5000, 6000 ft...which is low.

You could do a test flight and not run into one, and think it's 'OK'. But the dust moves around, and so do the planes on different paths. I wonder what traffic control and the aviation authorities think of this...

News report doesn't say what hight, just that they're flying below the ash clouds: http://nos.nl/artikel/151324-klm-gaat-testvluchten-uitvoeren.html

Wasn't there a story about a Finnish militairy aircraft flying through an ashcloud and sustained pretty serious damage to his aircraft although he didn't even see the ashcloud? I'm pretty iffy on this flying on lower altitudes plan, you just can't take risks with passenger flights.

 

[panda21]

holy shit thats incredible.

 

[syllogism]

Wasn't there a story about a Finnish militairy aircraft flying through an ashcloud and sustained pretty serious damage to his aircraft although he didn't even see the ashcloud? I'm pretty iffy on this flying on lower altitudes plan, you just can't take risks with passenger flights.

Yes, http://www.ilmavoimat.fi/index.php?id=1149

The article is Finnish, but it has some pictures. Those lightning photos are great, though wouldn't have looked quite as spectacular in person as they are long exposure photos.

 

[jepense]

You know what kind of altitudes they're flying at?

I wonder how safe that is. In the UK there are dust plumes at 5000, 6000 ft...which is low.

You could do a test flight and not run into one, and think it's 'OK'. But the dust moves around, and so do the planes on different paths. I wonder what traffic control and the aviation authorities think of this...

These are probably small planes? Flying low with big jets is slow and consumes a lot of fuel due to the denser air. Anyway, if the authorities say the airspace is closed, then it is closed. The companies need to get permission for whatever they want to do.

 

[maniac-kun]

These are probably small planes? Flying low with big jets is slow and consumes a lot of fuel due to the denser air. Anyway, if the authorities say the airspace is closed, then it is closed. The companies need to get permission for whatever they want to do.

In Germany Lufthansa had 10 huge machines (A300 etc) flying at 3000 meters from Munich to Frankfurth. No passangers onboard.

 

[gofreak]

I think Lufthansa is trying to get their long haul planes into their right places for when restrictions are lifted (which was one of their big concerns...they're quite long haul orientated and startup times for such carriers once things reopen will be worse than for short-haul carriers). But I don't think they remotely intend to run passenger flights like that...

 

[GasProblem]

I think Lufthansa is trying to get their long haul planes into their right places for when restrictions are lifted (which was one of their big concerns...they're quite long haul orientated and startup times for such carriers once things reopen will be worse than for short-haul carriers). But I don't think they remotely intend to run passenger flights like that...

Yeah, news is saying it's just to transfer empty planes to different airports. They're not going to fly with passengers at an heigt of 3km.

Heh, you can follow the KLM test flight here: http://casper.frontier.nl/eham/

 

[mrklaw]

Can't they fly around it? Eg flights from the east could divert to Iceland which is still open, and then to glasgow or Ireland which are likely to be the first to have windows. From there you can put on special trains and boats to get people to mainland Europe

If this continues there will need to be a plan. At the moment it's frustrating but will rapidly become very damaging to the global economy

 

[Walshicus]

Can't they fly around it? Eg flights from the east could divert to Iceland which is still open, and then to glasgow or Ireland which are likely to be the first to have windows. From there you can put on special trains and boats to get people to mainland Europe

If this continues there will need to be a plan. At the moment it's frustrating but will rapidly become very damaging to the global economy

Indeed - may help fuel investment in high-speed rail across Europe though. Wouldn't be such a big deal if Eurostar capacity was higher and you could easily get to a state that didn't have its airspace closed.

 

[gofreak]

Can't they fly around it? Eg flights from the east could divert to Iceland which is still open, and then to glasgow or Ireland which are likely to be the first to have windows. From there you can put on special trains and boats to get people to mainland Europe

If this continues there will need to be a plan. At the moment it's frustrating but will rapidly become very damaging to the global economy

It might be possible to work things out with windows and openings from points outside Europe (or the affected areas).

Right now there's really no windows though. This is from the just released VAAC forecast. The risk areas at 6pm today:

There's a tiny little free 'path' around Scotland into NI, but I wouldn't want to plot a flight path around that... Then by midnight this closes up anyway:

This blob just grows over the next 12 hours then. See:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271527299.png

It's interesting to see how the wind change is affecting it...there's a channel of it right down from iceland over ireland in the second pic now the winds are changing to a northerly direction.

 

[Brannon]

If this continues there will need to be a plan. At the moment it's frustrating but will rapidly become very damaging to the global economy

Sooo... looks like it will be time to use more cargo ships from that side of the world? This could be just the boost that shipbuilders need. And that graveyard of unused cargo ships with skeleton crews can finally start to be emptied.

Assuming this goes on for longer than a few weeks, mind. But if it does, it's time to sail the ocean blue once more.

 

[gofreak]

2 people reported killed in a light aircraft crash in England No indication it's ash related, but the question is why they were up there anyway with airspace closed.

 

[Mik2121]

Uhm.. I was supposed to take a plane from Japan to Spain for a week vacation (in Spain) on the 29th. The airplane goes from japan to Russia and them goes down to Spain crossing above all Europe. I wonder if my trip will be cancelled?..

Not being able to go back to Spain (to visit my family) would suck, but getting stuck in Spain and not being able to get back to Japan because of the volcano going crazy again would suck even more.. ugghhh

 

[pestul]

2 people reported killed in a light aircraft crash in England No indication it's ash related, but the question is why they were up there anyway with airspace closed.

Goddamn, I hope its unrelated or else we may have another Darwin award candidate. :/