Castef
Banned
Actually, that's good.
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Microsoft FY2015 Q2: 6.6M 360+XBO Shipped
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Actually, that's good.
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
So, did you understand how wrong you were, now? I hope so
I don't know what pipe I was smoking but it wasn't good.
No need man. There are just too many variables for anyone to draw any conclusion about this. I will admit that 10.5M is possible, unlikely, but possible.
But you're not account some simple facts into your equations.
Tier 1 markets are where Xbox One is competitive or sales adequately
PS4 is available in 123 markets, While Xbox One is available in only ~41
If there were any Tier 2 markets that had the potential sell 1.8 million or even 1 million since September 2014 it would have been place in the Tier 1 column. Fact
The further you move east, the weaker the Xbox brand gets. This is true even for the Tier 1 markets like France and Germany. Fact
Another fact that even with the LAUNCH of these other 29 markets in September (Q3 report) that Xbox One and Xbox 360 moved only 4.2M combined. Again we don't know the split.
UK is by far Xbox One's 2nd largest market not (Canada) and it took them a year to reach 1M. Again this is fact.
We have reports of Microsoft overshipping just like last year(900k beginning of 2013 in 13 markets) Fact
Your prediction 10.5M sold through with 11.5M-12M shipped
My prediction is 9.7M sold through and 10.6M shipped. My prediction falls in line with the 2:1 selling ratio. The PR statement released on November 12th (*approaching 10 million shipped) Which was based of Microsoft's own projections for the system's performance. This would make sense since they sold 909k November 2013 and 908k December 2013
OT:Just noticed, I'm no longer a junior....Yayyy!!!!!
KyanMehwulfe
Member
no no, what I mean is I can break down the sell through numbers for everyone so that we all have an accurate understanding of how each market is selling. You're saying a lot of things which I can account for.
Just give me a few hours.
half the stores in my area don't have it in stock. Whether that means its selling out or just haven't fully received stock I'm not sure cause I haven't really been watching it until now
Didn't really look at sales rates (they never seem to be accurate). I can try looking this up next month and see if the numbers drop at the DC in any considerably way
KyanMehwulfe
Member
stock was down about 10% at one point today after MS cut forward guidance for current quarter earnings... they got their rating cut by 3 investment banks, too.
not all of the stock performance is from MS though but the cut foward guidance isn't the best sign... if at least 1 extra division was expected to be neutral they may have been able to not cut guidance so i'm not sure if that's positive for q3.... not necessarily negative, likely neutral... may be a grasp to see it as positive though. if they were expecting more positive division performance i'm sure they would have tried to not cut guidance so much. hard to see what they bulk so many segments together though but a lot of the cloud/software should be at least neutral so it's gotta be in the hardware somewhere that's dragging on the guidance cut (and the ratings cuts).
i think the sellers are overreacting tho... i thought all the hardware positions looked pretty good, especially compared to where it could have been based on early last year.
not all of the stock performance is from MS though but the cut foward guidance isn't the best sign... if at least 1 extra division was expected to be neutral they may have been able to not cut guidance so i'm not sure if that's positive for q3.... not necessarily negative, likely neutral... may be a grasp to see it as positive though. if they were expecting more positive division performance i'm sure they would have tried to not cut guidance so much. hard to see what they bulk so many segments together though but a lot of the cloud/software should be at least neutral so it's gotta be in the hardware somewhere that's dragging on the guidance cut (and the ratings cuts).
i think the sellers are overreacting tho... i thought all the hardware positions looked pretty good, especially compared to where it could have been based on early last year.
Congrats on being a member
I want to address the points you addressed where you say I haven't taken into account certain things.
Ok, so as we can see above. In CY2013 which accounted for 2 months of tracking we say the USA sell through more than 1.8 million units to end users. Outside of the USA we saw a total of 1.2 million units sold through to end users in the rest of the world which consisted of 12 tier 1 countries. That's a ratio of 1.5:1 in favour of the USA.
So lets break it down a bit more. The UK launched with 364k, France with 126k and Germany with 100k units sold through to end users by the end of CY2013. This means that 3 markets outside of the USA sold through 590k units with the additional 9 Tier 1 markets selling through 610k to end users. This gives us total sell through of 3 million units to end users as confirmed by Microsoft.
Now, lets look at 2014, there was no doubt that sales would be very high in the USA and the price drop there ensured that. We saw sales for the year increase from 1.8m in 2013 to 4.4m for CY2014. This gives Xbox One a total of 6.2 million sold through in the USA as of December 31st 2014.
Now, lets look at tier 1, the 12 markets outside of the USA. Well the UK sold through approximately 790k units till the end of November 2014, giving us a cumulative total of 1150k till that date. In France we saw 290k units sold through in the full CY2014 giving us a cumulative total of 416k in France. In Germany we saw 170k sold through till November 2014 giving us a cumulative 270k.
Overall this takes us to 8.65m sold through as a minimum based on the information above. (Everything below is not official numbers)
However, we are missing data for the UK and Germany for December. In December we can very safely say that the UK would have sold through more than 200k and Germany would have sold through more than 50k. It could easily be 300k+ or 350k+ combined but we'll go with the lower number of 250k as an estimate. That takes our cumulative total from 8.65m up to 8.90m which would cover CY2013 as well as CY2014 for the USA, UK, GER and FRA.
So 8.90m is very much confirmed. Now we need to add in the other tier 1 countries which account for a further 9 markets. In CY2013 these 9 markets shipped 610k cumulative. If we look at UK, GER and FRA for CY2014 we see these markets saw higher sales in 2014, this is because CY2014 is 12 months of tracking versus the launch of CY2013 which is 2 months of tracking. Here are some example,
The UK for example jumped from 364K in CY2013 to 800k+ in CY2014. France went from 126k in CY2013 to 290k in CY2014. As you can see, sales more than doubled in these regions.
So you would expect the 610k number for tier 1 in CY2013 to be higher in CY2014 due to the extended tracking period (12 months) and the trends seen in other tier 1 countries. Now I'm not saying tier 1 accounted for another 5 million or anything. All I'm saying is those extra 9 markets will easily have made up at least another 610k at the very very least. It will no doubt be higher but lets use 610k as a baseline.
So added to 8.90m + 0.61m we get 9.51m as an absolute minimum estimated guess for cumulative Xbox One sales in all tier 1 countries (13) until December 31st 2014. Now we have to look at tier 2 countries (which is 29 markets) and it'd be pretty obvious that whilst sales won't be massive, we'll still see some being bought. And whilst I don't want to throw an exact number around, it'll take cumulative sales over 10 million, especially when we low balled tier 1 numbers which will be higher than 610k.
So yeh. That's my analysis.
I like how you throw around stuff like it's fact when it's not. Refrain from using the word fact unless it's an actual fact as a lot of the stuff you said isn't true.
Birgitte2004
Member
I think this is the key point which is somewhat questionable. It is possible that the trend for the UK/Germany/France does not hold up for other countries, even tier 1 countries.
There are all kinds of market pressures and forces that can affect some regions but not others.
Welfare
Member
Nice post Zhuge.
It unlikely that over 12 months, the same 9 countries won't at least be flat YoY.
It unlikely that over 12 months, the same 9 countries won't at least be flat YoY.
theprodigy
Member
why, because "it's totally dead" (even though this is relative, and this theory already got shanked pretty badly in France)
the only country that stalled was Spain, but given that the PS4 fell behind the PS3 too I'm chalking that up as an outlier
I saw you crouching behind a bus and sucking on an exhaust pipe while typing on the phone. Wanted to stop you but I was late from my AA meeting so I let you be.
Hockeymac18
Member
Thanks for this analysis, it's interesting. After going through it, it's logically hard to imagine the XB1 below 10 million. I think 10.5 million seems to be a pretty reasonable estimate of sold through as of the end of 2014.
Also interesting to see these points laid out when so many people were saying "no way above 10 million" in many other XB1-related sales threads. I'm not picking on anyone specifically, but when you do lay it out like this, it makes logical sense what these people were saying is very unlikely to be true (XB1 below 10 million).
I agree that we won't see a UK type increase (x3) in the other tier 1 markets, but you do have to take into account that these countries are tier 1 for a reason. They will at the very least sell through what they sold in CY2013 as it just wouldn't make sense otherwise.
Even looking at Spain which did terrible. It was under 35k in 2013 and over 51k by oct 2014, add in the Christmas boost and sales are flat or just higher.
Thanks. And yes, at the very minimum it'll be flat. But likely higher, how much higher? No idea.
Thanks, and yes, that was the reason I posted this. A lot of people just pluck numbers out of the air or base it on one piece of information.
When I make a prediction I like to have all available information and be able to use all that data in order to have a very good understanding to allow me to predict accurately.
Before this thread even was made I was looking at Xbox 360's historical performance from 2005 to now in order to gage what we could possibly see from the results. I said that over 6 million cumulative was achievable and the now we know it's 6.6m. I'm not saying I'm right, I'm not even saying i'm right some of the time, I'm saying that If I post something here you can believe me that I have researched and researched it in order to get the most accurate numbers and predictions.
Congrats on being a member
I want to address the points you addressed where you say I haven't taken into account certain things.
Ok, so as we can see above. In CY2013 which accounted for 2 months of tracking we say the USA sell through more than 1.8 million units to end users. Outside of the USA we saw a total of 1.2 million units sold through to end users in the rest of the world which consisted of 12 tier 1 countries. That's a ratio of 1.5:1 in favour of the USA.
So lets break it down a bit more. The UK launched with 364k, France with 126k and Germany with 100k units sold through to end users by the end of CY2013. This means that 3 markets outside of the USA sold through 590k units with the additional 9 Tier 1 markets selling through 610k to end users. This gives us total sell through of 3 million units to end users as confirmed by Microsoft.
Now, lets look at 2014, there was no doubt that sales would be very high in the USA and the price drop there ensured that. We saw sales for the year increase from 1.8m in 2013 to 4.4m for CY2014. This gives Xbox One a total of 6.2 million sold through in the USA as of December 31st 2014.
Now, lets look at tier 1, the 12 markets outside of the USA. Well the UK sold through approximately 790k units till the end of November 2014, giving us a cumulative total of 1150k till that date. In France we saw 290k units sold through in the full CY2014 giving us a cumulative total of 416k in France. In Germany we saw 170k sold through till November 2014 giving us a cumulative 270k.
Overall this takes us to 8.65m sold through as a minimum based on the information above. (Everything below is not official numbers)
However, we are missing data for the UK and Germany for December. In December we can very safely say that the UK would have sold through more than 200k and Germany would have sold through more than 50k. It could easily be 300k+ or 350k+ combined but we'll go with the lower number of 250k as an estimate. That takes our cumulative total from 8.65m up to 8.90m which would cover CY2013 as well as CY2014 for the USA, UK, GER and FRA.
So 8.90m is very much confirmed. Now we need to add in the other tier 1 countries which account for a further 9 markets. In CY2013 these 9 markets shipped 610k cumulative. If we look at UK, GER and FRA for CY2014 we see these markets saw higher sales in 2014, this is because CY2014 is 12 months of tracking versus the launch of CY2013 which is 2 months of tracking. Here are some example,
The UK for example jumped from 364K in CY2013 to 800k+ in CY2014. France went from 126k in CY2013 to 290k in CY2014. As you can see, sales more than doubled in these regions.
So you would expect the 610k number for tier 1 in CY2013 to be higher in CY2014 due to the extended tracking period (12 months) and the trends seen in other tier 1 countries. Now I'm not saying tier 1 accounted for another 5 million or anything. All I'm saying is those extra 9 markets will easily have made up at least another 610k at the very very least. It will no doubt be higher but lets use 610k as a baseline.
So added to 8.90m + 0.61m we get 9.51m as an absolute minimum estimated guess for cumulative Xbox One sales in all tier 1 countries (13) until December 31st 2014. Now we have to look at tier 2 countries (which is 29 markets) and it'd be pretty obvious that whilst sales won't be massive, we'll still see some being bought. And whilst I don't want to throw an exact number around, it'll take cumulative sales over 10 million, especially when we low balled tier 1 numbers which will be higher than 610k.
So yeh. That's my analysis.
I like how you throw around stuff like it's fact when it's not. Refrain from using the word fact unless it's an actual fact as a lot of the stuff you said isn't true.
Just a minor correction: the XB1 launched in an additional 28 (not 29 AFAIK) countries in 2014, and not all of them had 4 months of sales. Here's the list with the launch dates:
September 2 - Chile and Colombia
September 4 - Japan
September 5 - Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Slovakia, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Arab Emirates
September 15 - Israel
September 23 - Hong Kong, India, Korea, Singapore, South Africa, Taiwan
September 26 - Russia
September 29 - China
Besides, you're only mentioning the UK and France to argue that sales must have "more than doubled", but we know this is only true in these two countries.
It didn't "more than double" in Germany, at least not as far as we know, and it very likely didn't in Spain either.
Apoolgies, 28 markets for T2 . My mistake
That's still 4 months of sales though, in the same way that CY2013 is 2 months of sales despite launching November 22nd. If it launches during that tracking period for the month it counts during that month. China would be the only one with 3 months of sales but that's really not worth mentioning as it's China and is the only 1 out of 28 tier 2 countries.
Germany doubled as well. 100k in CY2013 and more than 170k in 2014. I would say over 200k easily in Germany by the end of the year. December is a big month.
My point about that though was more that 610k for tier 1 (9 markets) in 2013) would certainly not be less in 2014. Even Germany shows this, selling at least 70k more in 2014. The figures for CY2014 are independent and not cumulative from CY2013
Spain too, we can estimate sold the same amount in 2014 as it did in 2013 if we look at the trends there. Which would provide evidence of a flat country. So would support the minimum of 610k (but likely higher) theory. You have to remember that tier 1 isn't just small countries like Spain, It's Canada, Australia etc....
But yeh, I don't see how any of my points are wrong? Also I never said Spain doubled?
Well many of these countries didn't have 4 months of sales... I mean it launched at the end of september in several markets.
2013
WW: 3M
2014
USA 4.4M
FR 0.29M
GER 0.17M (although december is missing)
UK 1M (mid november)
That's already 8.86M and I didn't even adjust the number for the UK?
edit: scratch the second bit, I forgot to remove the 364k for the UK
theprodigy
Member
1m UK was LTD, also it sold 110k+ on Black Friday week after that announcement
I get what you're saying. But it's officially classed as 4 months of tracked sales.
In the same way that CY2013 is tracked as 2 months of sales. It's just an official term.
Sure we could say CY2013 is 41 days or whatever but we class it as 2 months. Similar to how some games only include 3 days of sales for the entire month yet others include 30 days of tracking for the month, yet still come under the same months.
I'm a Dynasty Warriors fan (if you can't tell by the avatar) and Dynasty Warriors games in the USA always come out last week of the month. And technically the first month sales would be crap, but the second month would be more than double. And that was becuase the first month only tracked like 5 day sales and the second month tracked the entire 30 days/
serversurfer
Member
Periodic updates would be super useful. Are you able to see shipments that come in to the DC as well?
Obviously, XB3 stocks are currently quite high, but do you have any recollection of how they were a year ago, coming out of the launch holiday? I'm assuming XB3 was higher then too, but was it as high as it is now? Seems like the current stocks have caused a few retail insiders to say, "Umm, wow," but it seems like last year they didn't find them to be particularly noteworthy. Would that be an accurate assessment? "Much bigger ratios than last year"?
Hmm. Well, maybe. lol
I still feel like you're overestimating T2 and even "T1.5" to some extent. I always felt like 610k in T1.5 was likely to be a generous estimate on Microsoft's part, and at the time, some insiders indicated the same. But MS put their name on it, so it's hard to dispute it. That said, I'm reluctant to simply toss in the same value again this year on the reasoning "they obviously are buying that much." And again, even if Spain is the weakest market in T1, they still spent €570 per console sold to advertise the launch, and by Microsoft's own estimation, that's one of their "strong" markets. There were eight other countries where they took pre-orders for months, compared them to the 25k in Spain which would've been cheaper to give away than advertise, and went, "Yeah, let's not even bother." So I'm not sure why you think these countries will provide such strong support for XB3 when MS had already determined that they wouldn't.
Anyway, you think they sell lots of XBoxen in not-US, and I think they hardly sell any, but we're both basing our arguments almost entirely on gut instinct, so there's probably not much point in bickering about it. I think you can't hit the numbers without a lot of handwaving, and you think it's hardly any handwaving at all. lol
That's why I think we're better off looking at the shipments and trying to work backwards from there. The observed 40% YOY drops for XB2 would put XB3 shipments at 11.8M, give or take, with a channel volume that depends entirely on whom you ask. lol We don't know Sony's shipments yet, so we can't determine their channel volume, but given retail musings, you would agree that MS have more units in the channel than do Sony? There's no disputing XB3 stocks are currently higher than PS4, in terms the of absolute number of units, right?
How much higher, do you think? Verendus said Sony's shipments are a lot higher than most people think, but how high is that? I'd been thinking about 1M unsold, and maybe as high as 1.5M, but it seems like "most" people were expecting more like 500k unsold. Obviously, it's not going to be the 5:1 ratio they're seeing in the DC, but if Sony's channel weighs in at 1.5M units, where do you think that would put MS? Like, 2M, or maybe 2.5M? More? Surely not less. Last year, the gap was 600k units, with MS having 200% more units in the channel, and that gap seemed to go mostly unnoticed. If retail is now saying, "Wow, we're sitting on a lot of Bones," then it would seem the channels are "that much more" stuffed with Bones, but how much is "that," do we think? If the current gap is +500k/+33%, would that draw more attention than last year's +600k/+200%, or less?
So given Verendus' comment, what are you expecting PS4 channel volume to be at, and where would you put XB3 in relation? If Sony are at 1.5M, then I would expect MS to be at least 2M, and maybe as much as 2.5M. If Sony are down around the 1M range, then MS might top out at 2M. PS4 stocks seem "low to tight," depending on where you're looking, but XB3 stocks sound "excessive" in comparison, even in the US, where PS4 stocks don't seem super low. So how much excess are we talking, in units? If 600k extra units and triple the volume went unnoticed last year, how many extra units are there now, would you reckon?
In regards to the bold, the numbers are what Microsoft get from GFK, NPD etc... they're the same numbers I'm using here. So the numbers I'm using are the exact same numbers Microsoft will use to work out their sell through.
The Xbox still sells outside the US and UK. Canada would be an example of a market where the Xbox One would probably see growth YOY. Yes the PS4 is absolutely destroying the Xbox One worldwide but it's not hard to see people still buying the Xbox One. And yes haha, there is no handwaving when the numbers are there. There is no way that tier 1 sales for 2014 were less than the two months of tracking in 2013. It just doesn't make sense and would mean that MS's shipments were way lower than what you think. We wouldn't even be at 11m sold in if that was the case. Maybe not even 10.5m.
You say 11.8m as well, so it's not hard to see over 10m sold through.
I honestly don't see why you think 12 months of tracking would be less than 2 months of tracking. Especially with the data from other tier 1 countries. Plus this applies to every product that 12 months will be higher than 2 months, especially in a launch year.
Of course, Microsoft overshipped this holiday (again) and no doubt CY2015 Q1 will be very very low in terms of shipments. I think MS are trying to offset that with the permanent price drop in the UK + USA in order to move units faster.
I'd say over 19.5m for PS4.
theprodigy
Member
let's cut past the bullshit about trying to guess shipments:
why do you think that
Dont you think that Sony covering 120+ market need more unit in retail then MS needing to serve 40+ markets only.
I know some markets are pretty small but still small amount in 80+ retail market will add up quite a bit.
Yes.
The key word was "over" 19.5m. I'm expecting it to be more than that number.
But it's clear that MS shipped a lot more consoles than they needed to as well. Same thing happened with the Xbox 360 in it's first year to use that as an example. 4.4m in Q42006 Vs 0.5m in Q12007
serversurfer
Member
That's what I'm worried about. lol "So add in UK, France, and Germany, and then another 500-600k for the rest?"
Do you have any numbers for Canada? I was under the impression XB3 was doing comparatively poorly there.
When was Spain at 51k? October? So less than equal after 10 months, including the Destiny launch? Plus, again, 51k, after nearly a year on the market, including a
Okay, so 1M+ for Sony? Where do you think that would put MS? What if Sony come in at 1.5M, or 1.8M? Where would that put MS?
SwiftDeath and I went round and round on this a few months ago, with him trying to find markets which would support that many units, but in the end, his argument always came back to, "But MS said so," so I decided there was no point in arguing about it. Sorry, but I still feel the same way, about the bickering and the subject itself.
By December 31st 2014. If that's what you mean by now.
19.5m is the base imo. Hence why I'm saying over that amount.
theprodigy
Member
Do you really want to go down this road of disputing official numbers?
here's a game for you: try finding the markets to add up to 18.5m PS4s, even though they did sell that much you won't be able to find them all due to lack of data
serversurfer
Member
lol As I said, I already did, and it led nowhere.
That's what I'm worried about. lol "So add in UK, France, and Germany, and then… another 500-600k for the rest?"
You say I use the argument "MS said so".... but this is literally because Microsoft said so.... I can't think of any other way to put it. It's like Sony saying 18.5m sold through.
We don't have data for more than 100 of the ~123 regions.... and we know that we can probably see around ~12m units sold through with the data we do have.... yet we know that it all adds up to 18.5m
So I don't see how you can't believe 610k = 9 tier 1 markets for CY2013 when MS says so. And at the end of the day it's not even Microsoft, it's GFK and NPD who provide the sell through figures to MS.
I'm sorry but it's just silly if you don't believe what MS and Sony report and therefore I have to disregard any posts you make about sales figures if you're not going to believe official numbers...
Not off the top of my head for Canada.
Spain was ~35k+ in January 2014 (2 months tracking)
Spain was ~51k+ in September 2014 (11 months tracking)
Using a very simple calculation we can say that after 13 months (so full CY2014) Spain would probably be around ~70k (with holiday boost in mind) which means it sold the same in CY2014 vs CY2013.
Lets wait and see.
Congrats on being a member
I want to address the points you addressed where you say I haven't taken into account certain things.
I like how you throw around stuff like it's fact when it's not. Refrain from using the word fact unless it's an actual fact as a lot of the stuff you said isn't true.
Your chart actually proves that America and UK are indeed Xbox One's strongest markets. Let's also looks at all the blank parts in it also. Way too many unknowns if you ask me. Also Q3 when T2 launched still shows a shipment of only 4.2M shipment for the quarter which has Xbox One and Xbox 360 combined. Like I said France, Germany, China, and Japan all have Xbox one on life support. You simply are placing all of your analysis on two empty spots on your own chart.
After see this chart, 9.7M might be too generous. Unless you can provide evidence of some kind of sales boost in one of these 29 countries.
France did 24k/month 2014 62k/month 2013
Germany did only 12k/month 2014 and 50k/month 2013
You might want to look at the chart again. Lol he said sales doubled from 2013. Seriously?
How is that doubled?
theprodigy
Member
you can repeat this as many times as you want, but in the end both France and Germany likely doubled sales from 2013 (likely a little more than 2x, even)
Correct. USA and UK are the two strongest markets for Xbox One with quite a number of sales accounting for those two markets alone.
Yes there are a number of unknowns but your figures are off. You say Q3 saw a combined shipment of 4.2m? It was actually 2.4m. If it was indeed 4.2m then we'd be over 15m shipped by now haha.
You say I'm placing my analysis on two empty spots.... yes.... that's exactly what I'm doing. I've already said that 8.7m is a base we can calculate and 8.9m is a base we can estimate (filling in Germany and UK december sales which are likely higher). So we already get to around 9 million units just there. Then you need to account for the other 9 tier 1 countries as well as the launches of tier 2 countries. Launches are always quite front loaded, even Japan can be used as an example for this and so tier 2 will likely count for a bit more than you expect now, but don't expect sales to be maintained over 2015.
If you think 9.7m is optimistic then I really have to say you don't know what you're talking about.
In fact if you think X1+360 shipped 4.2m in Q3 (when it shipped 2.4m) and still think sold through is less than 9.7m then there is something really really wrong with your calculations.
As I've said before, I take into account so many variables, historical data and current data and trends when making my posts and I don't just post any old crap.
They did though? Unless you can't do math or something.
4400k in 2014 for the US is more than double 1800k in 2013 (Cumulative total= 6200k)
290k in 2014 for France is more than double 126k in 2013 (cumulative total= 416k)
800k+ in 2014 for the UK is more than double 364k in 2013 (cumulative total = 1150k+)
With Germany I can't say 100% for certain it doubled, but when you factor in December it's quite hard not to say it's doubled. (cumulative total = 270k+)
If you can't work out that the above is more than double then I have no idea what you've been smoking haha.
Welfare
Member
BruceLeeRoy is passing around some good shit.
Sony already said in their PR that they they were the best selling system in the UK for the holiday season. (Nov and Dec combined). I didn't say the US in my statement, you need to read it again. And no, sales didn't double per month there has been a dramatic decrease compared to 2013 (2 months average). I also did that for you since you like ignore certain information. How can you accurate provide any estimate when you keep saying 8.7M and the chart clearly reads 8.65m. But hey let's round it up for them it's only 50k, which by your own chart would be the equivalent of 2 extra months in France and 4 extra months in Germany.
You might as well be providing numbers for the site that is banned on here.
Welfare
Member
1. That extra 50k might as well be Japan.
And 2. That banned zzz has the Xbox One at 11m sold through. I think whatever numbers Zhuge can approximate will be better than that other site.
True,
But i'm not quite sure what death2494 is getting at. He seems to not understand how sales work at all.
He's denying that sales more than doubled across the US, UK, Germany and France in CY2014 vs CY2013.
Instead he's using some monthly average bs..... which doesn't make sense btw.... I don't think he's smart enough to work out that 15k per month for 11 months is more than 50k per month for 2 months.... but whatever
Anyone can see he's just posting for the attention now. Therefore I will be ignoring his posts after the next one.
And no, I don't use chartz in any of my estimates. Estimates are my own, official data is from MS, NPD and GFK.
*Looks around*
PM me....
Back when we had NPD data for Canada (like 5 years ago or something. sonycowboy never forget) that overall estimate was that the market was 10% of the US. Now that doesn't mean that splits etc were the same, that's just an overall market figure.
I have no idea how the PS4 and XB1 perform over there, I don't think we ever got any numbers.
His banking on the Tier 2 to generate 1.35M in under 4 months. I even conceded to his 10.5M (highly unlikely). But for him, 9.7M is not possible. I'm done with it.
theprodigy
Member
no, banking on UK/Germany December+other tier 1 for the whole year+tier 2 (which honestly is probably unnecessary for 10m to begin with, or minimally so)
No I'm not....
I do wish people read my posts properly. If you're done with it then be done with it. Unless you actually want to have an open discussion where we can have a debate then great, lets talk.
But If you're going to ignore the content of my post, twist my words and make up your own statistics then don't bother.
Like I said before, I'm not saying my analysis is right. But if you aren't going to provide a valid argument and get facts right then I'm just going to dismiss your posts.
serversurfer
Member
/shrug Actually, I question everything put in front of me. I looked at Microsoft's numbers and came away dubious, and I looked at Sony's numbers and they seemed reasonably legit, based on the information I had access to. There are others who look at both numbers and feel the opposite. Last year, I asked if 3M seemed high to anyone else, given the sales we could see, and I was told our "insiders" had indicated it was likely closer to 2.8M, but I have no idea exactly who said what. But like I said, I didn't see a lot of point in bickering about what may have been a 10% error in estimation, but I do think it's worthwhile to be cautious about multiplying it out to estimate demand.
Regardless, I think it's easier and more effective to try to work the problem from the other direction, since as you and Prodigy point out, we have an incomplete picture of individual markets at best.
Wow, was Spain really 35k in 2013? I thought it was 25k. That means they only sold 16k in the first nine months of the year, or less than half of what they sold at launch. Given that drop, I don't see why is safe to assume they sold another 19k in the three months that followed. Any idea how UK, France, and Germany were tracking in September? Were they also down more than 50%?
lol Okay, why?