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Microsoft FY2015 Q2: 6.6M 360+XBO Shipped

Seems MS were stuffing the channel/overshipping too.

I'm not against it if it means crazy deals...maybe Nintendo should try the same with the new 3DS....
 

user_nat

THE WORDS! They'll drift away without the _!
Now that we have official figures placing the PS3 at 1.1 million for the quarter, I feel like that sort of vanquishes some of the more outlandish 2 million+ predictions for the 360 here. 360 sold better here to be sure, but not enough for worldwide shipments to be doubling the PS3.

Yup. Really hard to think the 360 is selling as much as twice what the PS3 is. I think most people expected the PS3 to be doing better than the 360, since it has been more of less since ever.
 
Anyway, I was able to find this on team sizes.

Battlefield 4 cost $100M to develop. Link The article also points out that the "average console team" at EA is 300 people, which makes it sound like the BF4 team was larger. (Since not all of their games cost $100M to develop, obviously.)

Infinity Ward is 260 people. Link That said, on Ghosts they called in two additional studios to do the multiplayer, a third to do the "extinction," whatever the fuck that is, and a fourth studio to do the Wii U version. So, five teams total, including the base team of 260. Link

Killzone: Shadow Fall was made by 150 people, up from the 125 that worked on the PS3 versions. Link

So it seems like the costs of going multi-platform are quite significant indeed, and dwarf the costs associated with moving from one generation to the next.

Your still missing my point.

As I said earlier, the teams are likely larger because the games they make is larger.
Battlefield 4 is a larger game than Killzone Shadowfall, and they released way more DLC for it than GG did for Killzone SF.

Making all that DLC, and just the game in general takes a lot of people, and because it was a cross generation title, they would have had to create more assets for it than if it was just current gen.

Same thing for ghost. Some hate Cod games, but one thing they always have is a lot of content.
A nice long campaign, Aliens Mode, and a crap ton of customization for multiplayer which is likely one of the reason they needed extra help (not to mention it was the last Cod with a 2 year cycle.)

As I said earlier, first party games can have huge staff too like 343, and the reason for more staff is simply because the game is bigger and has a bigger budget, not because it is a multiplatform.

So I appreciate you finding that info, I really do, but what I'm looking for is something with a dev. talking about how releasing on multiple platforms significantly increased the cost of the game, or that a significant portion of the team is dedicated to porting the game to different consoles (cross gen doesn't count though).
 
Same thing for ghost. Some hate Cod games, but one thing they always have is a lot of content.
A nice long campaign,

I hate to be nit picky - but I got stopped in my tracks from reading your post up to here.

But it's one of the reasons why I don't buy CoD Anymore

Not enough focus on a nice long campaign
 
Your still missing my point.

As I said earlier, the teams are likely larger because the games they make is larger.
Battlefield 4 is a larger game than Killzone Shadowfall, and they released way more DLC for it than GG did for Killzone SF.

Making all that DLC, and just the game in general takes a lot of people, and because it was a cross generation title, they would have had to create more assets for it than if it was just current gen.

Same thing for ghost. Some hate Cod games, but one thing they always have is a lot of content.
A nice long campaign, Aliens Mode, and a crap ton of customization for multiplayer which is likely one of the reason they needed extra help (not to mention it was the last Cod with a 2 year cycle.)
Right on. I really don't know anything about those games apart from the fact that they're the genre I don't play. lol That said, I find it hard to believe they're actually so dissimilar in scope and production value. Does BF4 really have more than double the content of Shadow Fall? CoD really has so much more content that after starting with a studio nearly twice the size, they needed to add four additional studios do complete it all? Again, I don't pay close attention to these games, but when KZ gets slammed, it seems it's always because of sluggish controls, boring gameplay, and other things which can't be clearly defined. "Only a third of the content of BF/CoD" seems like an easy jab, but this is the first I've heard it mentioned.

As I said earlier, first party games can have huge staff too like 343, and the reason for more staff is simply because the game is bigger and has a bigger budget, not because it is a multi platform.
Yeah, like I said, I'm not sure what MS employees actually do. Maybe they use the "monkeys at a typewriter" strategy for coding. Again, it seems unlikely that H4 had nearly triple the content of KZ3, which was made by 125 people.

Sony games have no content? That's what you're telling me?

So I appreciate you finding that info, I really do, but what I'm looking for is something with a dev. talking about how releasing on multiple platforms significantly increased the cost of the game, or that a significant portion of the team is dedicated to porting the game to different consoles (cross gen doesn't count though).
lol So, the only evidence you'll accept is a developer publicly complaining about the need to support their users? That seems to be a bit of a wild goose chase. How about chubbs saying that multi-platform support is indeed a significant undertaking in terms of effort and complexity? Does that count for anything? Seems there were other devs in his thread agreeing as well.


Very hard to believe that the 360 doubled the PS3 in shipments. 360 shipped has to be considerably less than 2 million.
I see what you're saying, but that would also mean that XB3 had shipped considerably more than 4M, which doesn't seem particularly likely either, given their shipments in the first three quarters. Maybe PS3 sales are dropping faster because "PlayStation users" are more likely to go ahead and buy the new one instead, and "XBox users" not so much?
 

Massa

Member
Right on. I really don't know anything about those games apart from the fact that they're the genre I don't play. lol That said, I find it hard to believe they're actually so dissimilar in scope and production value. Does BF4 really have more than double the content of Shadow Fall? CoD really has so much more content that after starting with a studio nearly twice the size, they needed to add four additional studios do complete it all? Again, I don't pay close attention to these games, but when KZ gets slammed, it seems it's always because of sluggish controls, boring gameplay, and other things which can't be clearly defined. "Only a third of the content of BF/CoD" seems like an easy jab, but this is the first I've heard it mentioned.

Shadow Fall has quite a bit of content. They also released 7 multiplayer maps for free in addition to a coop mode (with 6 of its own maps) and a big expansion with new class, abilities and weapons. Though it's worth noting that most of that post-release support was done by Guerrilla Cambridge, while GG proper moved on to their new IP.
 

Synth

Member
I see what you're saying, but that would also mean that XB3 had shipped considerably more than 4M, which doesn't seem particularly likely either, given their shipments in the first three quarters. Maybe PS3 sales are dropping faster because "PlayStation users" are more likely to go ahead and buy the new one instead, and "XBox users" not so much?

Wait... what makes them an "Xbox" or "Playstation" user if they're yet to buy the console in year 9?
 
Shadow Fall has quite a bit of content. They also released 7 multiplayer maps for free in addition to a coop mode (with 6 of its own maps) and a big expansion with new class, abilities and weapons. Though it's worth noting that most of that post-release support was done by Guerrilla Cambridge, while GG proper moved on to their new IP.
Yeah, unless it comes out at- or near-launch, I'm not sure DLC should be counted, since as you say, it's typically created after the fact. Regardless, multi-plat (and MS) teams strike me as excessively large. Maybe Sony devs are just magically efficient. /shrug


Wait... what makes them an "Xbox" or "Playstation" user if they're yet to buy the console in year 9?
Maybe their Gen7 console just died, and the PS3 owners said, "No sense not getting the PS4," and XB2 owners said, "meh Guess I'll just get another 360." My sister was gonna get a PS3 for her 5yo son last Christmas, until I told her she'd be better off getting the PS4 instead, since it was a decade newer and was only about $100 more. Maybe people looking at the 360 didn't reach the same decision about the Bone.

I really have no idea. But even at 4.1M, XB3 shipments would be fairly high compared to what they shipped for the rest of the year, so it seems easier to believe that PS3 are dropping fairly quickly than it is to believe XB3 shipped "considerably more" than 4M in Q4. They were probably only shipping an average of 850k in Q1 and Q2. 4M is already a pretty huge leap from that level — 4.7x as much — and pushing 5M would just be that much harder to swallow.
 

Synth

Member
Maybe their Gen7 console just died, and the PS3 owners said, "No sense not getting the PS4," and XB2 owners said, "meh Guess I'll just get another 360." My sister was gonna get a PS3 for her 5yo son last Christmas, until I told her she'd be better off getting the PS4 instead, since it was a decade newer and was only about $100 more. Maybe people looking at the 360 didn't reach the same decision about the Bone.

I really have no idea. But even at 4.1M, XB3 shipments would be fairly high compared to what they shipped for the rest of the year, so it seems easier to believe that PS3 are dropping fairly quickly than it is to believe XB3 shipped "considerably more" than 4M in Q4. They were probably only shipping an average of 850k in Q1 and Q2. 4M is already a pretty huge leap from that level — 4.7x as much — and pushing 5M would just be that much harder to swallow.

I dunno man. The scenarios you've given seem far too specific for me to imagine them pushing the needle significantly in either direction. I can totally understand differences in users upgrade patterns causing one current gen console to sell faster than another (so say, more PS3 owners jumping to PS4 quickly), but I don't see something like that having much of an effect on previous gen console sales today. Replacements for dead consoles can't possibly cause that many lopsided repurchases.

I get what you're saying about advising your sister not to buy a PS3, and just get a PS4 instead, but that not only seems just as likely to happen for the Xbox, it also doesn't make much sense why someone considering a 360 wouldn't also simply think "may as well get a PS4 instead". If they haven't bought into either side by now, then I can't imagine a Halo here or an Uncharted there is having much of an influence in where they land.

I do want to be clear though that I'm not so much arguing what you're saying about the figures themselves (I'm not a sales-age type.. and have no idea who's selling how much, whenever). I just think your theory for the disparity doesn't make much sense (people that need to buy the console now, already being aligned to either side).
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Odd as it can be if the original Xbox is in the conversation too, calling a platform something other than its name makes for a bad label.

Pretty much what I think as well.

Anyway, I mentioned in the Sony thread that I'm changing my X1 estimation to between 11.5m-12.5m with 12m as the average. Based on PS3/X360 shipments.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
How many PS3s were shipped last year?

3.4m for CY2014.

If we assume that;s the same for X360 (which is unlikely) then that means that X1 shipments are around ~12.6m units.

The evidence at the moment is pointing to X360 out shipping PS4 last year thanks to the holiday boost.

The estimate I've come to based on X360 trends + PS3 trends YOY shows that the Xbox 360 will likely have shipped anywhere between 3.5m-4.5m units.

Unfortunately it's hard to be specific when MS have combined shipment numbers for the past 3 quarters and will no doubt do so for the foreseeable future.
 

Welfare

Member
I can see Sony shipping less PS3's last Q compared to 360's. Sony are trying to get consumers onto the PS4, not PS3, and are succeeding in that. The PS3 might as well not even exist for Sony when they have the PS4 right now.

On the flip side, MS is having issues getting consumers to convert from 360 to One and for new consumer to pick up the One. While one platform is having difficulties, why slow down production of the other when that is still making money?

A 2:1 shipped ratio is likely.

Also this thread got crazy last page.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned

Hi,

Update you may be interested in.

AMD said sell through to end users from customers was nearly 30 million.

Take Two (Rockstar Games) said:

Consumer demands for the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One appears to have been strong through the holiday season, with a combined installed base of these platforms exceeding 29 million worldwide by the end of December according to IDG estimates.

Therefore we can assume that according to IDG and AMD the number for total sold through will be 29m-30m between X1 and PS4 as of end of 2014.

Using the numbers we have that means we can say with at least a bit more confidence now that Sony was at ~18.5m and MS will be at a minimum of ~10.5m sold through to end users
 
Odd as it can be if the original Xbox is in the conversation too, calling a platform something other than its name makes for a bad label.
Sorry, it's just easier to type and less nonsensical than the actual names. Is it really difficult to figure out what an "XB3" is? =/


I dunno man. The scenarios you've given seem far too specific for me to imagine them pushing the needle significantly in either direction.
I was just tossing out scenarios. It's likely a combination of factors. Someone was saying that the XB2 still does good business in developing markets as a piracy box, which isn't the case for the PS3. That would help to shift the needle as well, I'd imagine.


I can see Sony shipping less PS3's last Q compared to 360's. Sony are trying to get consumers onto the PS4, not PS3, and are succeeding in that. The PS3 might as well not even exist for Sony when they have the PS4 right now.

On the flip side, MS is having issues getting consumers to convert from 360 to One and for new consumer to pick up the One. While one platform is having difficulties, why slow down production of the other when that is still making money?

A 2:1 shipped ratio is likely.
Also good points. There are all sorts of reasons a drop in PS3 shipments wouldn't imply a similar drop in XB2 shipments. Makes a good excuse for arguing XB3 shipments are even higher though, I suppose.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Sorry, it's just easier to type and less nonsensical than the actual names. Is it really difficult to figure out what an "XB3" is? =/

Bro I spent 20 minutes trying to figure out if I was in some alternate dimension. Especially when you started using XB1 to describe Xbox sales and XB3 to describe XB1 sales and XB2 to describe XB360 sales....


see what I mean :p
 
Take Two (Rockstar Games) said:

Therefore we can assume that according to IDG and AMD the number for total sold through will be 29m-30m between X1 and PS4 as of end of 2014.

Using the numbers we have that means we can say with at least a bit more confidence now that Sony was at ~18.5m and MS will be at a minimum of ~10.5m sold through to end users
Thanks. That was helpful.

Edit: Can I get a link for that?
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Thanks. That was helpful.

No worries.

I also want to apologise for the argument I had with you earlier this week. I let it get to me a bit much hence the whole back and forth thing.

Next time I disagree with one of your posts I'll try and answer in a much more calm and respectful manner.
 

nib95

Banned
Hi,

Update you may be interested in.

AMD said sell through to end users from customers was nearly 30 million.

Take Two (Rockstar Games) said:



Therefore we can assume that according to IDG and AMD the number for total sold through will be 29m-30m between X1 and PS4 as of end of 2014.

Using the numbers we have that means we can say with at least a bit more confidence now that Sony was at ~18.5m and MS will be at a minimum of ~10.5m sold through to end users

These were the numbers several predicted earlier in the thread, based on the information available.
 
I also want to apologise for the argument I had with you earlier this week. I let it get to me a bit much hence the whole back and forth thing.

Next time I disagree with one of your posts I'll try and answer in a much more calm and respectful manner.
I appreciate that. To be clear, I also appreciate a vigorous debate. I do not appreciate lies designed to discredit me, or lies of any kind, really. If you wish to debate me in the future, I would appreciate it if you tried to restrict yourself to responding only to statements I've actually made. Calm and respectful are optional, but also appreciated. <3

In fairness, I should also mention that I'm taking your warning that you're less trustworthy than even MS a lot more seriously now. :(
 
Serversurfer I actually agree after I got over the initial shock factor of 360 out shipping PS3 by 2:1. My prediction for the XB1 shipments was always 11.5-12 even before we got numbers and I don't think they shipped more than that. Maybe 12.5 million as an "optimistic" guess as they say :p.

Im not suprised that the PS3 dropped off because of the how well the PS4 is doing, but 2 million shipments for the 360 suggests that it's currently doing better in markets outside the US/UK than we thought.
 
Serversurfer I actually agree after I got over the initial shock factor of 360 out shipping PS3 by 2:1. My prediction for the XB1 shipments was always 11.5-12 even before we got numbers and I don't think they shipped more than that. Maybe 12.5 million as an "optimistic" guess as they say :p.
I was looking at XB3 XB3 shipments in the first half of the year, when they were shipping an average of 850k/quarter to Tier 1. In Q3, they shipped twice that amount to help cover the Tier 2 launch. However, if T2 was set to double the demand for their product, I see no reason for them to wait a year to launch there. Seems like they'd wanna double their sales ASAP, no? I thought my estimate of 3.5M in Q4 was generous because it doubled their already doubled demand, and the promos were only happening in the US/UK. Then I laughingly said, "But hey, it's MS — the kings of over-shipping, so maybe they even shipped 4.5M. :p" Shipping 5M+ seems even less likely, but hey, it's MS.

Im not surprised that the PS3 dropped off because of the how well the PS4 is doing, but 2 million shipments for the 360 suggests that it's currently doing better in markets outside the US/UK than we thought.
Someone mentioned that XB2 does good business in developing markets as a piracy box. That doesn't apply to the PS3, so that would help explain the difference.


Sorry, I was referring to this exchange:
Honestly, I'm more inclined to believe your interpretation of NPD/GFK than Microsoft's. :p
Well you shouldn't hahaha.
Burn me or others enough times, and you may get downgraded too. :p
 

Welfare

Member
I was looking at XB3 XB3 shipments in the first half of the year, when they were shipping an average of 850k/quarter to Tier 1. In Q3, they shipped twice that amount to help cover the Tier 2 launch. However, if T2 was set to double the demand for their product, I see no reason for them to wait a year to launch there. Seems like they'd wanna double their sales ASAP, no? I thought my estimate of 3.5M in Q4 was generous because it doubled their already doubled demand, and the promos were only happening in the US/UK. Then I laughingly said, "But hey, it's MS — the kings of over-shipping, so maybe they even shipped 4.5M. :p" Shipping 5M+ seems even less likely, but hey, it's MS.

Well the ntkrnl leak back over a year ago (damn it's been that long) said MS was going to launch in those countries a lot earlier in the year, like in April. Can't quote post since the thread was locked.

ntkrnl said:
Might not be completely up to date, as I tend not to care about anything other than NA and Europe.

April, 2014
-
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
Singapore
Hong Kong

Russia
Sweden
Norway
Finland
Denmark

Colombia
Chile
Argentina


October, 2014
-
China
Poland
Czech Repub.
Hungary (yes, I am. Almost lunch.)
Greece
Portugal
Slovakia

Turkey
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
United Allied Emirates
Israel

India
Indonesia
Egypt
 
Well the ntkrnl leak back over a year ago (damn it's been that long) said MS was going to launch in those countries a lot earlier in the year, like in April. Can't quote post since the thread was locked.
Sure, and a good number of those countries were scheduled to launch Nov. 2013, but it seems the pre-orders indicated to MS that it wasn't worth their time. They instead focused on markets where they were actually likely to move stock, like in Spain where they managed to sell 35k by spending €570 in advertising per unit sold.

Plus, we're talking about countries like Finland helping to double the demand they had in the US. That seems unlikely, in and of itself. Wasn't Finland one of the countries whose pre-orders told MS not to even bother?
 
Right on. I really don't know anything about those games apart from the fact that they're the genre I don't play. lol That said, I find it hard to believe they're actually so dissimilar in scope and production value. Does BF4 really have more than double the content of Shadow Fall? CoD really has so much more content that after starting with a studio nearly twice the size, they needed to add four additional studios do complete it all? Again, I don't pay close attention to these games, but when KZ gets slammed, it seems it's always because of sluggish controls, boring gameplay, and other things which can't be clearly defined. "Only a third of the content of BF/CoD" seems like an easy jab, but this is the first I've heard it mentioned.

I honestly am not sure how much extra content and stuff BF4 would have than Killzone SF, but from my experiences, 3rd party games almost always have more content (significantly) than 1st party games, and I do know that BF4 had 5 expansion packs, and Dice probably already had a second team working on Starwars Battlefront before they launched BF4.

As far as Cod Ghost goes, well they had two years to make a new game with a campaign, multiplayer mode, and aliens Co-Op mode (plus they have a crap ton of custimization), and they probably needed help because they had to ship the game to not 2, but 6 different platforms, and at the time, X1 and PS4 were still early dev. kits, and had an all new architecture, so it probably wasn't too easy.
(so yes, obviously a ridiculous number of platforms can weigh down a developer).
But they probably will not need any help for the next one as they have 3 years, and will only have 3 platforms which are all very similar.
I think that your theory may hold some weight for last gen. as the architectures were very different, and so it is a lot more work, but with consoles basically becoming stealth PCs, the cost for multiplat development is likely much lower, and no matter what they would always have at least 2 platforms as PC isn't going anywhere.

Yeah, like I said, I'm not sure what MS employees actually do. Maybe they use the "monkeys at a typewriter" strategy for coding. Again, it seems unlikely that H4 had nearly triple the content of KZ3, which was made by 125 people.
You should watch there development documentary for Halo 5. They get stuff done there. Also, Halo has a lot of content...It always has a epic campaign with super high production values, Multiplayer with Arena style, and BTB style of play, and multiple gametypes off of that. It has Forge mode, and Theater mode, as well as a Cooperative firefight mode (or spartan opps), not to mention all the features like custom games, 4 player split screen, system link support, Spartan customization, and campaign scoring.

So yeah, like I said, bigger game = bigger team.
More devs. are required for more platforms, I am not arguing that, just your notion that shipping for one extra platform could cause the team to inflate by 50%.

Sony games have no content? That's what you're telling me?
I never said that. Please don't take my words out of context.
I said that 1st party games (with few exceptions) are not as big as 3rd party games.

Take Titanfall, or Sunset Overdrive as example (since you think I'm just calling out Sony). They are both wonderful, and fun games, but they just don't have the content that a game like Cod, or Assassin's Creed.

lol So, the only evidence you'll accept is a developer publicly complaining about the need to support their users? That seems to be a bit of a wild goose chase. How about chubbs saying that multi-platform support is indeed a significant undertaking in terms of effort and complexity? Does that count for anything? Seems there were other devs in his thread agreeing as well.
I might. Can I have a link to the thread?
 
I might. Can I have a link to the thread?
Here you go, and the relevant quote from the OP (emphasis mine):

Indie devs typically have small amounts of staff, and tend to "roll out" games gradually on a number of platforms. While the architecture of XB1 and PS4 may seem similar enough, it's incredibly difficult to simultaneously develop for both platforms at the same time. First off, each one has their own certification process and requirements. One build may pass on one platform, but fail on the other. You have to constantly revise release date estimates until both versions are in line with each other, and even then, you'll have platform specific bugs that you'll have to fix at the same time once both versions launch. It is a bit of a nightmare, to say the least. That's why many devs opt to focus on one platform, typically the biggest one (Steam), and then go from there.
Now, he's talking specifically about indy games, obviously, but the issues he describes scale with the scope and complexity of the game itself, just as the team size does. So if it's too much of a burden for two dudes working on their two-man game, then it's too much of a burden for 150 dudes working on their 150-man game. If you have unlimited resources, you can just throw more bodies at the problem, but like I said, while that can increase your overall profits, it can also greatly reduce your margins. So, make or break; there's much less chance of recovering from a failure, because you've invested so much more in to it. Hence, annualized franchises that don't take a lot of risks.
 
Cool to see the surface doing well, I've seen them in the wild a lot more recently

Xbox news is bad though, investors aren't going to like that all, they've never been fans of the Xbox division
 

BokehKing

Banned
I hate to be nit picky - but I got stopped in my tracks from reading your post up to here.

But it's one of the reasons why I don't buy CoD Anymore

Not enough focus on a nice long campaign
Because people don't really buy it for the campaign anymore

Yes some do, but the majority rather have resources focused on multiplayer and co-op
 
Here you go, and the relevant quote from the OP (emphasis mine):


Now, he's talking specifically about indy games, obviously, but the issues he describes scale with the scope and complexity of the game itself, just as the team size does. So if it's too much of a burden for two dudes working on their two-man game, then it's too much of a burden for 150 dudes working on their 150-man game. If you have unlimited resources, you can just throw more bodies at the problem, but like I said, while that can increase your overall profits, it can also greatly reduce your margins. So, make or break; there's much less chance of recovering from a failure, because you've invested so much more in to it. Hence, annualized franchises that don't take a lot of risks.

Thank you.

I think it is reasonable to say that developing for one platform is easier than two.
But like i said earlier, there are a lot of Indy games that have done simultaneous releases.
A two/three man team can't do it, plain and simple, and yes I does get more complex as you go higher up.
The point your not seeing though is that for a small indy game, lets say that there is one person working one each version (so 2 people), when you get up to a bigger game (lets say with a 200 person team), that number might increase to 20 people.

So yes it is more expensive, but 10 extra people is not what is causing massive inflation in AAA game budgets. That is all I am arguing.
I believe that bigger Art and technology teams are causing a lot of the cost increase in budgets and team size. (with technology being the people that program the shaders, physics, ext. for a game).
And also, the fact that just about every game has an online mode comes into play as well. You have to hire people for good netcode, and to take care of any in-house servers that are being used.

These cost increases are not just limited to 3rd party developers though. That is why a team like ND has gone from just ~6 people in the early PS1 days to 258 people today.

They only release on one platform, but there is a lot of High production value that goes into the game's graphics, physics, animations, ect.

So again, I agree that if there was just one platform, then it would save money, and teams could rid themselves of some programmers, but I just don't think it is that significant of a cost compared to other things.
 
But like i said earlier, there are a lot of Indy games that have done simultaneous releases.
And as I said earlier, depending on the game in question and the tools being used, a smaller game can actually be easier to port, because it's that much more likely that the "Also build for XBox" button will actually work. If your game is a bare bones Tetris clone, then sure, you may be able to hit four or five targets with a single piece of code, assuming you get lucky with your middleware. But the more features you add, and the more complex those features are, the more likely the improvement will break the other version, which then needs to be fixed by hand, delaying both versions by however long that takes. If you want to move outside the scope of your middleware and implement a custom solution for something, then you'll need a custom solution for the other platform as well. As I said, all of this has the effect of limiting game design, because in effect, developers are actively punished for nearly every improvement they try to make. As development time drags on and costs rise, the motivation to say, "Fuck it; that's good enough," becomes that much stronger. As a gamer, do you want to play This Is Good Enough: The Compromise?

A two/three man team can't do it, plain and simple, and yes I does get more complex as you go higher up.
The point your not seeing though is that for a small indy game, lets say that there is one person working one each version (so 2 people), when you get up to a bigger game (lets say with a 200 person team), that number might increase to 20 people.
Here you're basically arguing that as complexity increases, complexity decreases. These issues get worse as game scope and complexity increase, not better.

So yes it is more expensive, but 10 extra people is not what is causing massive inflation in AAA game budgets. That is all I am arguing.
I believe that bigger Art and technology teams are causing a lot of the cost increase in budgets and team size. (with technology being the people that program the shaders, physics, ext. for a game).
And also, the fact that just about every game has an online mode comes into play as well. You have to hire people for good net code, and to take care of any in-house servers that are being used.
Well, yes. This is exactly what I've been trying to explain to you. lol An actor is a Hell of a lot more than a folder full of bitmaps and polygons, and the bitmaps and polygons are the only thing that can actually be reused on both platforms, and then only if both platforms are equally capable. Not only do the shaders and physics and rigging and animation and AI and net-code need to be written for one platform, all of that stuff then needs to be rewritten for the other platform.

These cost increases are not just limited to 3rd party developers though. That is why a team like ND has gone from just ~6 people in the early PS1 days to 258 people today.
While true, I feel like you're being a bit disingenuous here, because I've already pointed out that the move from PS3 to PS4 only grew the Killzone team by 20%, from 125 to 150. More to the point, it doesn't change the fact that a 256-man project is going to be a lot harder to port than a 6-man project, because now there's that much more stuff to port.

They only release on one platform, but there is a lot of High production value that goes into the game's graphics, physics, animations, ect.

So again, I agree that if there was just one platform, then it would save money, and teams could rid themselves of some programmers, but I just don't think it is that significant of a cost compared to other things.
So after the developers themselves tell you it is indeed a significant undertaking, you counter with, "Well, yeah, but I'm pretty sure it isn't," after citing a bunch of stuff which actually does require additional effort to port. :p
 
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