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[Raist]

/shrug Actually, I question everything put in front of me. I looked at Microsoft's numbers and came away dubious, and I looked at Sony's numbers and they seemed reasonably legit, based on the information I had access to. There are others who look at both numbers and feel the opposite. Last year, I asked if 3M seemed high to anyone else, given the sales we could see, and I was told our "insiders" had indicated it was likely closer to 2.8M, but I have no idea exactly who said what. But like I said, I didn't see a lot of point in bickering about what may have been a 10% error in estimation, but I do think it's worthwhile to be cautious about multiplying it out to estimate demand.

Yeah, I always though the 3M sold through figure was likely... generous.

1.8 USA
0.364 UK
0.126 FR
0.1 GER

That's 2.39M with what was back then the vast majority of the market for the XB1, so it's a bit hard to explain the ~0.6M missing.

 

[Death2494]

True,

But i'm not quite sure what death2494 is getting at. He seems to not understand how sales work at all.

He's denying that sales more than doubled across the US, UK, Germany and France in CY2014 vs CY2013.

Instead he's using some monthly average bs..... which doesn't make sense btw.... I don't think he's smart enough to work out that 15k per month for 11 months is more than 50k per month for 2 months.... but whatever

Anyone can see he's just posting for the attention now. Therefore I will be ignoring his posts.

And no, I don't use chartz in any of my estimates. Estimates are my own, official data is from MS, NPD and GFK.



*Looks around*

PM me....

Pls read the part that was highlighted and tell me where I mentioned the US sales not doubling. I'm sure I only said France, Germany, China, and Japan. The system was only available for two months in 2013 as opposed to an entire year in 2014 for both France and Germany. Of course it is going to sell more because it was available for 12 months. since Xbox one was only available for 2 months in 2013 it makes sense to average it by months instead of years. It went from a 62k/month 2013(France) 24k/month in 2014. It's called a sales decline trend and a steep one. You're saying sales doubled when you are comparing two months of availability to an entire year. How is that a fair comparison?and you're trying to question my intelligence?

 

[ZhugeEX]

/shrug Actually, I question everything put in front of me. I looked at Microsoft's numbers and came away dubious, and I looked at Sony's numbers and they seemed reasonably legit, based on the information I had access to. There are others who look at both numbers and feel the opposite. Last year, I asked if 3M seemed high to anyone else, given the sales we could see, and I was told our "insiders" had indicated it was likely closer to 2.8M, but I have no idea exactly who said what. But like I said, I didn't see a lot of point in bickering about what may have been a 10% error in estimation, but I do think it's worthwhile to be cautious about multiplying it out to estimate demand.

I get it. I really do, but in this case these are official numbers coming from Microsoft and Sony themselves. There is no reason not to trust one over the other. They both get their data from the same sources and they are both very credible sources.

Now if you want to be super super technical then NPD and GFK are just estimates as well, after all only ~90% of the data they get is "hard data" and the rest is just estimates. But they're the best estimates we have. And they're the leading tracking companies worldwide for the video game industry. It's truly impossible to narrow down sell through to an exact number. But NPD and GFK are the closest you'll find and their data is used by MS and Sony to calculate their sell through figures.

So as I said, no reason not to trust these numbers. If you don't trust these number then you can't trust any numbers and there was no point in you making a prediction or even using my base prediction. As at the end of the day I'm basing my numbers on GFK and NPD which are the same numbers that Sony and MS use.

Wow, was Spain really 35k in 2013? I thought it was 25k. That means they only sold 16k in the first nine months of the year, or less than half of what they sold at launch. Given that drop, I don't see why is safe to assume they sold another 19k in the three months that followed. Any idea how UK, France, and Germany were tracking in September? Were they also down more than 50%?

That was before Christmas, after Christmas it was around ~35k. Probably slightly lower as that 35k does include January I believe. But basically we can estimate that CY2014 sales were probably the same as CY2013 sales. Which shows that tier 1 either increases or stays flat. It most certainly would not decrease YOY.

lol Okay, why?

Just too many variables atm. Once Sony announces sell in figure I'll have a better idea.

 

[Death2494]

Yeah, I always though the 3M sold through figure was likely... generous.

1.8 USA
0.364 UK
0.126 FR
0.1 GER

That's 2.39M with what was back then the vast majority of the market for the XB1, so it's a bit hard to explain the ~0.6M missing.

The remaining Tier 1 markets (9 to be exact)

 

[Aquamarine]

Now if you want to be super super technical then NPD and GFK are just estimates as well, after all only ~90% of the data they get is "hard data" and the rest is just estimates. But they're the best estimates we have. And they're the leading tracking companies worldwide for the video game industry. It's truly impossible to narrow down sell through to an exact number. But NPD and GFK are the closest you'll find and their data is used by MS and Sony to calculate their sell through figures.

So as I said, no reason not to trust these numbers. If you don't trust these number then you can't trust any numbers and there was no point in you making a prediction or even using my base prediction. As at the end of the day I'm basing my numbers on GFK and NPD which are the same numbers that Sony and MS use.

90-95% is hard data.

90% is the absolute minimum of the % of market that npd tracks.

but since npd tracks hundreds and hundreds of retailers, it skews the direct coverage % higher + depending on the title.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Pls read the part that was highlighted and tell me where I mentioned the US sales not doubling. I'm sure I only said France, Germany, China, and Japan. The system was only available for two months in 2013 as opposed to an entire year in 2014 for both France and Germany. Of course it is going to sell more because it was available for 12 months. since Xbox one was only available for 2 months in 2013 it makes sense to average it by months instead of years. It went from a 62k/month 2013(France) 24k/month in 2014. It's called a sales decline trend and a steep one. You're saying sales doubled when you are comparing two months of availability to an entire year. How is that a fair comparison?and you're trying to question my intelligence?

It's not a comparison. It's showing Calender Year sales. CY stands for calender year.

What I'm showing is total cumulative sales increased over 2014. They didn't just stop selling consoles in 2014. I still don't understand why you're using a monthly average, it doesn't make sense.

If I sell 10 units for 2 months in 2013, but 50 units for the whole of 2014. I've still sold 60 units. Just because the monthly average is lower in 2014 doesn't mean I've sold less.

 

[ZhugeEX]

90-95% is hard data.

90% is the absolute minimum of the % of market that npd tracks.

but since npd tracks hundreds and hundreds of retailers, it skews the direct coverage higher + depending on the title.

Thanks for the correction. Appreciated

 

[Birgitte2004]

The remaining Tier 1 markets (9 to be exact)

If France and Germany combined are only .23 million, I'd like to see the breakdown where Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, Spain, and New Zealand add up to 600k units.

 

[Death2494]

It's not a comparison. It's showing Calender Year sales. CY stands for calender year.

What I'm showing is total cumulative sales increased over 2014. They didn't just stop selling consoles in 2014. I still don't understand why you're using a monthly average, it doesn't make sense.

If I sell 10 units for 2 months in 2013, but 50 units for the whole of 2014. I've still sold 60 units. Just because the monthly average is lower in 2014 doesn't mean I've sold less.

lol using your own analogy. In 2013 you would have sold 5/month. In 2014 you would have sold 4.1/month. This is still called a decline. Even though you sold 60 total it still means you are selling at a slower rate in 2014 than in 2013. This also means demand for your product is slowing also. If you can't follow this then you have no business making any kind of analysis.

Also your chat shows LTD for America, France,UK, and Germany(somewhat). In France and Germany, Xbox one much slower rate in 2014 when compared to 2013. This is expected since 2013 was its launch. But that rate it was selling took a massive dip in those two countries. Can someone else please explain trends and selling rate?

 

[ZhugeEX]

Even though you sold 60 total ?

And that right there is my point.

We're looking at cumulative sell through as of December 31st 2014.

It doesn't matter if the sale rate is lower. The facts are that cumulative sell through as of Dec 31st in the US was 6.2m, france was 0.416m, Germany was over 0.270m and UK is over 1.150m. Add that to the additional 0.610m in CY2013 and you get 8.65m.

That's all my point has ever been.

I've never talked about "selling rate" (which isn't what you think it is btw). I've talked about cumulative sales.

I agree with you that the monthly average is lower in Germany and France. But you have to surely see that total sales for the CY is much higher than it was in 2013. Can you not agree with me on that? The monthly average has nothing to do with working out sell through.

Do you seriously not see what I mean when I say calender year sales? Are you sure you're not just trolling me now?

 

[Death2494]

And that right there is my point.

We're looking at cumulative sell through as of December 31st 2014.

It doesn't matter if the sale rate is lower. The facts are that cumulative sell through in the US was 6.2m, france was 0.416m, Germany was over 0.270m and UK is over 1.150m. Add that to the additional 0.610m in CY2013 and you get 8.65m.

That's all my point has ever been.

I've never talked about selling rate. I've talked about cumulative sales.

I agree with you that the monthly average is lower in Germany and France. But you have to surely see that total sales for the CY is much higher than it was in 2013. Can you not agree with me on that?

How can possibly fill in those blanks without showing a selling rate to identify a trend? That is the only way you can gauge performance. The Wii U around 9m but look how long it took to get there. By its selling at a slower rate than game cube. I'm done

 

[ZhugeEX]

How can possibly fill in those blanks without showing a selling rate to identify a trend? That is the only way you can gauge performance. The Wii U around 9m but look how long it took to get there. By its selling at a slower rate than game cube. I'm done

Go and read my post again mate

 

[RespectThySole]

Using monthly sell-rate is silly. You're comparing launch numbers in the two biggest months of the year to an average with tiny months like Jan, Feb, etc. included.

The ratio of consoles sold in CY2013 to CY2014 is almost the same in France as it is in the US even with the US having all those great promotions.

126/290= 43.4%

1.8/4.4= 40.9%

 

[theprodigy]

ok, all in agreement the PS4 "sold" worse in 2014 than 2013?

 

[Raist]

The remaining Tier 1 markets (9 to be exact)

Which would account for more sales than UK+FR+GER.
Considering the countries we're talking about, it's hard to believe.

 

[ZhugeEX]

ok, all in agreement the PS4 "sold" worse in 2014 than 2013?

According to Death2494... sure.....

After all the PS4 sold 2.1m a month in 2013.... yet only 1.2m a month in 2014. Sounds like a failure to me... sales didn't even double.


(yes that is sarcasm, the PS4 was the best success story of 2014. Amazing year for the console)

Using monthly sell-rate is silly. You're comparing launch numbers in the two biggest months of the year to an average with tiny months like Jan, Feb, etc. included.

Thanks for bringing some sense into this thread.

Which would account for more sales than UK+FR+GER.
Considering the countries we're talking about, it's hard to believe.

It's hard to believe but it's also what Microsoft officially announced.

Just like how with the PS4 we don't have hard data to prove sell through was over 12m yet we know Sony announced sell through was over 18.5m

There really is no reason to doubt Sony or Microsoft here. They're in a better position than you or me to say what they actually sold through.

 

[Raist]

It's hard to believe but it's also what Microsoft officially announced.

Just like how with the PS4 we don't have hard data to prove sell through was over 12m yet we know Sony announced sell through was over 18.5m

There really is no reason to doubt Sony or Microsoft here.

Except that we know the PS4 isn't tanking in most of its markets, and the 6.5M "missing" are across 100 countries.

The thing is, given the known data the amount missing is a bit high for the XB1 considering the number and nature of the markets we don't have numbers for, but MS even claimed that they sold "over 3M before the end of 2013", while we're using for instance NPD data that extended until beginning of January.

 

[serversurfer]

I get it. I really do, but in this case these are official numbers coming from Microsoft and Sony themselves. There is no reason not to trust one over the other. They both get their data from the same sources and they are both very credible sources.

NPD and GFK are very credible, yes, but the data isn't coming directly from them. It's coming from Sony and MS, and experience has taught me to examine anything the latter say extra closely. MS say they rely on people not paying attention to the details, but I do pay attention to details, which is why I don't support MS or their products. I notice details like parity clauses, and I understand their ramifications for the industry. That's why I encourage others to stop supporting MS too.

MS announced their Day One sell through before the sun had even set on Day One. Do you think that information was provided to them by NPD and GFK? From 13 countries? It took Sony until Sunday to tally and announce their day-one sales, from two countries. You'll forgive me if I suspect one company may put a little more effort in to these "estimates" than the other.

So as I said, no reason not to trust these numbers. If you don't trust these number then you can't trust any numbers and there was no point in you making a prediction or even using my base prediction. As at the end of the day I'm basing my numbers on GFK and NPD which are the same numbers that Sony and MS use.

Honestly, I'm more inclined to believe your interpretation of NPD/GFK than Microsoft's.

Just too many variables atm. Once Sony announces sell in figure I'll have a better idea.

lol It seems to prevent us with far fewer variables than T1.5+ do, but that's cool.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Except that we know the PS4 isn't tanking in most of its markets, and the 6.5M "missing" are across 100 countries.

The thing is, given the known data the amount missing is a bit high for the XB1 considering the number and nature of the markets we don't have numbers for, but MS even claimed that they sold "over 3M before the end of 2013", while we're using for instance NPD data that extended until beginning of January.

I understand, but it's no different to Sony saying 4.2 million by the Dec 28th 2013. That'd be the same tracking period that MS used for their 3 million.

one week extra sales isn't going skew things so much.

I get where you're coming from in terms of PS4. I 100% agree. It is clear to see that 6.5m can be made up through additional regions. But the same can be said about the Xbox One.

At the end of the day we're all just quoting the data that's available to us and using that in order to create a prediction. But there is no point questioning MS's data over Sony's just because you "think" that MS's sales would be lower. Otherwise this may as well be a thread over on chartzzz. After all everyone was saying that Xbox One shipments might not even reach 10 million yet here we are debating how close to 12 million they are. I'm just working with the information given and it's clear that this information is as accurate as we'll get it.

NPD and GFK are very credible, yes, but the data isn't coming directly from them. It's coming from Sony and MS, and experience has taught me to examine anything the latter say extra closely. MS say they rely on people not paying attention to the details, but I do pay attention to details, which is why I don't support MS or their products. I notice details like parity clauses, and I understand their ramifications for the industry. That's why I encourage others to stop supporting MS too.

MS announced their Day One sell through before the sun had even set on Day One. Do you think that information was provided to them by NPD and GFK? From 13 countries? It took Sony until Sunday to tally and announce their day-one sales, from two countries. You'll forgive me if I suspect one company may put a little more effort in to these "estimates" than the other.

I'm not a huge fan of MS tbh. Never owned an Xbox and never plan to. I'm a Sony gamer, had PS1-PS4 + Vita.

But this isn't about who I trust, it's just about using the data given in order to make a prediction.
If we all start questioning MS data then we need to question Sony data, and then NPD, and then GFK as well and then it gets impossibly hard to trust any data.
At the end of the day, as above, I'm going to use the numbers we have to make a prediction. Yes you may think the official numbers are too high or too low but we don't exactly have any other data to back it up.
And if we do get new data then I will certainly factor that in.

I've never said my predictions or calculations are 100% correct. But at the end of the day they help give a rough idea.

Honestly, I'm more inclined to believe your interpretation of NPD/GFK than Microsoft's.

Well you shouldn't hahaha.

lol It seems to prevent us with far fewer variables than T1.5+ do, but that's cool.

Haha, we'll finish this discussion sometime

Anyway, I need to sleep. See you all later.

 

[serversurfer]

But this isn't about who I trust, it's just about using the data given in order to make a prediction.
If we all start questioning MS data then we need to question Sony data, and then NPD, and then GFK as well and then it gets impossibly hard to trust any data.

I totally see where you're coming from, and I understand why it appears to be a very slippery slope indeed. Really, it's more of MS being a special case. As I said, experience has taught me that any claim from them requires more than the prescribed grain of salt.

Spoiler

Not that kind of salt; look it up, youngsters.

What about Microsoft's Day One sell through? Doesn't that put an 8-inch hole below the waterline of your "This data comes directly from NPD" theory? Hell, for all I know, Sony's numbers were equally ass-sourced, but at least they made it look like they actually counted the receipts.

At the end of the day, as above, I'm going to use the numbers we have to make a prediction. Yes you may think the official numbers are too high or too low but we don't exactly have any other data to back it up.

No, I get that. I really do. Again, I see no point in bickering about a possibly-shaky launch-holiday estimate, but I do think it's good to be conscientious of the fact that possibly-shaky numbers are being used as the basis for multiplication to guesstimate demand a year out from that possibly-shaky number. See where I'm coming from? GIGO, so if I have something that smells fishy, then wherever possible, I'm more inclined to solve the problem another way than just assume the questionable material is fine and use it as the basis of the project. That's why I suggested we try looking at shipments and stock levels instead.

I've never said my predictions or calculations are 100% correct. But at the end of the day they help give a rough idea.

Sure, we're all just spitballing here. <3

Well you shouldn't hahaha.

Burn me or others enough times, and you may get downgraded too.

 

[Death2494]

And that right there is my point.

We're looking at cumulative sell through as of December 31st 2014.

It doesn't matter if the sale rate is lower. The facts are that cumulative sell through as of Dec 31st in the US was 6.2m, france was 0.416m, Germany was over 0.270m and UK is over 1.150m. Add that to the additional 0.610m in CY2013 and you get 8.65m.

That's all my point has ever been.

I've never talked about "selling rate" (which isn't what you think it is btw). I've talked about cumulative sales.

I agree with you that the monthly average is lower in Germany and France. But you have to surely see that total sales for the CY is much higher than it was in 2013. Can you not agree with me on that? The monthly average has nothing to do with working out sell through.

Do you seriously not see what I mean when I say calender year sales? Are you sure you're not just trolling me now?

How do you think they were able to make that PR statement on November 12th "almost at 10 million". They were using projected sales for the quarter. To need cumulative sales/ period of time. This is how companies track whether a new system is performing better than their predecessor.

Also you keep reading only bits and pieces of my posts.

This is expected since 2013 was its launch. But that rate it was selling took a massive dip in those two countries.

I'm sure that shows me acknowledging that it would sell at a faster rate since it had just launched. Just to clarify, sales are expected to slow down as you move further away from launch.
France did 126k in only 2 months in 2013 (again that's only 2 months)
France sold only 290k in 12 months 2014 combined that's only 416k
PS4 sold 1.M already before December was even over
http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2014/12/18/ps4-crosses-1-million-sold-france/
That's nearly a 3:1 ratio which falls in line with most markets outside of US and UK

 

[serversurfer]

How do you think they were able to make that PR statement on November 12th "almost at 10 million". They were using projected sales for the quarter. To need cumulative sales/ period of time. This is how companies track whether a new system is performing better than their predecessor.

I thought the same at the time of the announcement, but unless XB2 got a huge resurgence for no particular reason, it's likely they've shipped 11.8M XB3, give or take. The question now is how much of that they've actually sold through. Personally, I suspect they have at least a million more unsold than Sony, mostly because the 600k stock advantage they had this time last year seemed to mostly go unnoticed, but we've widespread indications of excessive XB3 stock this year. So, it seems unlikely to be less than 1M, but it could be a bit more. We'll have a better idea of what's actually going on once Sony post.

 

[Genio88]

They deserve it, pre Xbox One launch was a disaster, even if there were great exclusives such as Ryse and Dead Rising 3, but they've been improving everything of this console, which is now awesome, same for the lumia, i changed my iPhone with a Lumia 930 which is better than iPhone 6 in specifics, camera, audio and design, and has a great OS in windows denim, costing half of an iPhone 6

 

[chithanh]

That's 2.39M with what was back then the vast majority of the market for the XB1, so it's a bit hard to explain the ~0.6M missing.

MS announced their Day One sell through before the sun had even set on Day One. Do you think that information was provided to them by NPD and GFK? From 13 countries?

We don't exactly know how the grey imports to tier 2 countries were counted, so it is possible that Microsoft's method made them appear as sell-through.

For instance in this scenario (totally made up but not entirely implausible):
Microsoft want to find out sell-through in Germany but don't want to wait for GfK to tell them. So they ring up their contact at Media-Saturn and ask for inventory levels. Because shipment - inventory = sell-through, isn't it? What they don't take into account here is that Media-Saturn moved a significant number of consoles to the Netherlands, Sweden and elsewhere. Thus, their sell-through numbers would be artificially inflated by tier 2 imports.

But GfK counts only actual sales to customers, and would arrive at a different, possibly more accurate number.

i changed my iPhone with a Lumia 930 which is better than iPhone 6 in specifics, camera, audio and design, and has a great OS in windows denim, costing half of an iPhone 6

Actually, the Lumia situation is not rosy at all. They sold 10.5 million units in Q4 (up from 8.2 million in the same quarter last year), mostly driven by low-end device sales.
In the meantime, the whole smartphone industry grew by 25%. Apple alone sold more iPhones than Microsoft/Nokia sold smartphones and dumbphones combined, for the first time ever.

It is therefore pretty safe to say that you preferring a high-end Lumia over an iPhone are the exception and not the norm.

 

[Kysen]

same for the lumia, i changed my iPhone with a Lumia 930 which is better than iPhone 6 in specifics, camera, audio and design, and has a great OS in windows denim, costing half of an iPhone 6

This where you lost me, I can't take your post seriously.

 

[cHaOs667]

@topic: I don't understand why it is so important for you guys to discuss sales numbers as they did not affect you and nobody of you really knows the real numbers.

Let's take the GfK for example. The GfK is a private held company that works only with a few companies where they get the sales figures. Then they use their statistical concepts and algorithms to "upscale" the numbers to whole germany.

So as long as neither Microsoft or Sony are reporting real numbers you guys are juggling with unprecise sales figures and i don't really see a point in this (except for a childish part - "Mine is bigger than yours").

This where you lost me, I can't take your post seriously.

Why? I have done the same thing. Lumia 930 is an awesome phone.

 

[Kinan]

Ok, updated my launch aligned graph with new Xbox and WiiU data. Due to MS lumping the xbox360 and xbox1 data together the error bars on x1 data are rather big and they will grow every quarter, unfortunately. To make them at least a bit smaller, I put in an assumption that at least half of the total sales are x1's. So lower limit of the error bars is if x1 sales equal to x360s, top limit - if x360 sales are zero. Points are therefore correspond to 3/4 X1 to 1/4 x360 split, which I see as a realistic scenario.

Since fresh Sony shipped data are not there I made two graphs: one with official shipped data for PS4, another with announced sold through for PS4.

All other data are shipped.

As you can see X1 is doing pretty good actually (unless they massively overship) and is even beating PS2 at this moment in time. Of course thats the last quarter where X1 is ahead of PS2, we all remember how it went further on.

This is also most likely the last quarter where PS4 is on par with Wii but it will stay above PS2 for some more time.

WiiU is now the slowest selling console on the graph. Maybe I should add Gamecube to the graph so it doesn't feel so lonely.

 

[tattooed_dwarf]

@topic: I don't understand why it is so


Why? I have done the same thing. Lumia 930 is an awesome phone.

Yep, I have 925 and it's just so good, UI is top of industry, very user friendly and practical phone.

 

[ZhugeEX]

@topic: I don't understand why it is so important for you guys to discuss sales numbers as they did not affect you and nobody of you really knows the real numbers.

Haha true, but it's the same reason we have NPD thread and Media Create threads. Thanks to Sony we have an accurate number of sell through and will shortly have a shipped number for them.

MS have been a lot more closed so in order to estimate their sell in and sell through we have to use the figures in order to calculate a rough number.

 

[ZhugeEX]

As you can see X1 is doing pretty good actually (unless they massively overship) and is even beating PS2 at this moment in time. Of course thats the last quarter where X1 is ahead of PS2, we all remember how it went further on.

It's doing ok.

Wouldn't say it's doing better than the PS2 though, the X1 had a simultaneous launch worldwide where as the PS2 was in Japan for most of it's first year.

We don't exactly know how the grey imports to tier 2 countries were counted, so it is possible that Microsoft's method made them appear as sell-through..

Hence why I've been "low balling" all the numbers we have and rounding down instead of up.

The actual PR says "over 3 million" sold to end users yet I've taken 3 million exactly.Sure the number won't be much more than 3m but I'm just using the numbers we have and the lowest number it could theoretically be (sold through) is around ~8.7m which excludes 9 tier 1 markets for CY2014 and 28 tier 2 markets for CY2014. Once you factor in those markets you can see over 10m sold through.

Especially when we can estimate that shipments were more than ~11.5m at the very least.

 

[Death2494]

I thought the same at the time of the announcement, but unless XB2 got a huge resurgence for no particular reason, it's likely they've shipped 11.8M XB3, give or take. The question now is how much of that they've actually sold through. Personally, I suspect they have at least a million more unsold than Sony, mostly because the 600k stock advantage they had this time last year seemed to mostly go unnoticed, but we've widespread indications of excessive XB3 stock this year. So, it seems unlikely to be less than 1M, but it could be a bit more. We'll have a better idea of what's actually going on once Sony post.

This was actually the only way they could have made that statement back in November. Every company projects numbers for the quarter.It's called forecasting. My wife does this for the company she works for to a certain capacity. You don't just go in without projecting any kind of numbers. Apparently some people know better and think that Xbox brand is popular in the east. I'm not saying it's completely dead and there are some isolated market where that might be the case. Based on the company's forecast for the division, Microsoft knew there was a high chance they would pass 10 million shipped by the end of 2014. Then there is 29 small markets. Each market would need to have sold 44.8k (1.3M/29) for his number to be true as of December 31st
http://kotaku.com/report-xbox-one-is-struggling-in-south-korea-1640676883

According to popular Korean site Game Focus (via tipster Sang), the Xbox One reportedly sold less than 200 units at the console's big launch event at Times Square in Seoul. All the consoles sold at the event were via pre-orders, but the numbers, however, have not been confirmed.....In comparison, Game Focus reports that the PS4 launch event sold over 440 consoles.

This still falls in line with the 2:1 selling ratio as before. Both were launch events BTW and this is in South Korea. Now that's 200 (a little less) Xbox Ones sold at launch. South Korea certainly didn't sell 44.8k by December 31st. They were considered Tier 2 markets for a reason and he is ignoring this.

I'm not even going to go into the channel stuffing that's was done also. He thinks I'm trying to bash Xbox One (never even referred to it as Xbone) but I'm just not as optimistic when there is no evidence that suggest a major sales resurgence in the east. All report say the exact opposite.

 

[ZhugeEX]

This was actually the only way they could have made that statement back in November. Every company projects numbers for the quarter.It's called forecasting. My wife does this for the company she works for to a certain capacity. You don't just go in without projecting any kind of numbers. Apparently some people know better and think that Xbox brand is popular in the east. I'm not saying it's completely dead and there are some isolated market where that might be the case. Based on the company's forecast for the division, Microsoft knew there was a high chance they would pass 10 million shipped by the end of 2014. 29 small markets. Each market would need to have sold 44.8k for his number to be true as of December 31st
http://kotaku.com/report-xbox-one-is-struggling-in-south-korea-1640676883


This still falls in line with the 2:1 selling ratio as before. Both were launch events BTW and this is in South Korea. Now that's 200 Xbox Ones sold at launch. South Korea certainly didn't sell 44.8k by December 31st. They were considered Tier 2 markets for a reason and he is ignoring this.

Let me ask you a question. How many Xbox One's do you think were sold in this year and how many Xbox 360's? Using MS's official sell in numbers of course.

I'll give you the figures (as you seem to think Q3 was 4.2m when it's not.)
Q1 = X1 @ 1.2m, X360@ 0.8m
Q2 = cumulative 1.1m
Q3 = cumulative 2.4m
Q4 = cumulative 6.6m

I never said Xbox is popular in the East btw, again you're twisting my words. Xbox One has sold terribly in the east compared to the PS4. But it's still sold something.

Also you're looking at 1 store for South Korea. I'm not saying that South Korea sold many more, I'm just saying you're literally looking at 1 stores worth of sales out of potentially other stores, online sales etc...

 

[Death2494]

Let me ask you a question. How many Xbox One's do you think were sold in this year and how many Xbox 360's? Using MS's official sell in numbers of course.

I'll give you the figures (as you seem to think Q3 was 4.2m when it's not.)
Q1 = X1 @ 1.2m, X360@ 0.8m
Q2 = cumulative 1.1m
Q3 = cumulative 2.4m
Q4 = cumulative 6.6m

I never said Xbox is popular in the East btw, again you're twisting my words. Xbox One has sold terribly in the east compared to the PS4. But it's still sold something.

Also you're looking at 1 store for South Korea. I'm not saying that South Korea sold many more, I'm just saying you're literally looking at 1 stores worth of sales out of potentially other stores, online sales etc...

This is a question nobody can answer without know the actual split. Hence why this little debate is even being had right now.

Please stop with this *potentially* argument. I understand this but as this is the only report from South Korea to gauge system performance, I'd like to use this instead of my imagination. And this same retailer hosted a PS4 launch and had at least twice the sales. This give more credit to the 2:1 ratio. We would like to know what concrete information do you have to support you claim that these 29 markets sold 1.3M (sold through) in ~4 months? What are the size of these gaming markets compared to other ones. Like others have said you might be overestimating Tier 2 countries output.

(Germany could have sold 50k in December 2014, but there is a good chance it didn't)

My apologies 2.4M (including the launch of 29 markets that's your analysis based on) and the launch of Destiny.

 

[ZhugeEX]

This is a question nobody can answer without know the actual split. Hence why this little debate is even being had right now.

Please stop with this *potentially* argument. I understand this but as this is the only report from South Korea to gauge system performance, I'd like to use this instead of my imagination. And this same retailer hosted a PS4 launch and had at least twice the sales. This give more credit to the 2:1 ratio. We would like to know what concrete information do you have to support you claim that these 29 markets sold 1.3M (sold through) in ~4 months? What are the size of these gaming markets compared to other ones. Like others have said you might be overestimating Tier 2 countries output.

(Germany could have sold 50k in December 2014, but there is a good chance it didn't)

My apologies 2.4M (including the launch of 29 markets that's your analysis based on) and the launch of Destiny.

So you're saying there is only one video game store in South Korea?

When I use the word potentially, I mean you're looking at one store's worth of sales, but dismissing every other "potential" channel such as Internet sales or other video game stores. There is not enough data to draw any conclusion from South Korea. Yes the PS4 will outsell it there, that is obvious as PlayStation has always done better than Xbox in SK. But we can't say South Korea ONLY sold 200 consoles and that's it.

But what the hell does PlayStation have to do with Xbox sales. Nothing.... To work out a ratio in one country, yes we can do that. But when we don't have proper data for the 28 tier 2 countries then we can't draw any conclusion about X1 sales.

I have never claimed 1.3 million sold through in tier 2. Again you're putting words in my mouth. Go and read the original post. I quite clearly said I don't want to put a number on tier 2 sales. But even then we can see more than 10m+ is a given.

If you can't even answer my question on how many X1's/360's you think have shipped in CY2014 then you can't make any prediction about sell through at all.


The Xbox 360 sold 7 million units in CY2013.

Xbox 360 sold 0.8m in Q1 CY2014.
Combined for Q2/Q3/Q4 sales was 10.1m
X360 sales would have fallen this year again, as confirmed by Microsoft. (going by past trends we can say the drop was somewhere around ~40%
X1 was at 10m sold in as of December.
You do the math.

Like I said, I look at so much historical data, trends and numbers before even posting anything in regards to a "prediction". At the moment you're just guessing based on the fact the PS4 is doing better, so that means the X1 will do much worse. Not exactly a great argument.

 

[Birgitte2004]

@topic: I don't understand why it is so important for you guys to discuss sales numbers as they did not affect you and nobody of you really knows the real numbers.

I always love people who come into a sales thread and says "I don't understand why you people care about sales".

I care as an intellectual exercise.

 

[Death2494]

So you're saying there is only one video game store in South Korea?

When I use the word potentially, I mean you're looking at one store's worth of sales, but dismissing every other "potential" channel such as Internet sales or other video game stores. There is not enough data to draw any conclusion from South Korea. Yes the PS4 will outsell it there, that is obvious as PlayStation has always done better than Xbox in SK. But we can't say South Korea ONLY sold 200 consoles and that's it.

But what the hell does PlayStation have to do with Xbox sales. Nothing.... To work out a ratio in one country, yes we can do that. But when we don't have proper data for the 28 tier 2 countries then we can't draw any conclusion about X1 sales.

I have never claimed 1.3 million sold through in tier 2. Again you're putting words in my mouth. Go and read the original post. I quite clearly said I don't want to put a number on tier 2 sales. But even then we can see more than 10m+ is a given.

If you can't even answer my question on how many X1's/360's you think have shipped in CY2014 then you can't make any prediction about sell through at all.

you can't even answer your own question. Nobody can because nobody knows what the split is that's why we're having this discussion in the first place. I can't..... I just can't.....I'm done

in regards to South Korea, I never said that this was the only retailer nor that Xbox one only sold 200.please read my posts more calmly and carefully to avoid confusion

but at the end of the day all this talk is irrelevant. People would just like some hard data or evidence that suggests that Xbox one had a sales boost in the east.

is there a report or article that would even suggest that one of these 29 markets could sell 1.3 million? If you can't then your numbers are as good as mines. Thank you, enjoyed talking numbers with you.

9.7 million is my prediction for sold through

 

[ZhugeEX]

you can't even answer your own question. Nobody can because nobody knows what the split is that's why we're having this discussion in the first place. I can't..... I just can't.....I'm done

in regards to South Korea, I never said that this was the only retailer nor that Xbox one only sold 200.please read my posts more calmly and carefully to avoid confusion

but at the end of the day all this talk is irrelevant. People would just like some hard data or evidence that suggests that Xbox one had a sales boost in the east.

is there a report or article that would even suggest that one of these 29 markets could sell 1.3 million? If you can't then your numbers are as good as mines. Thank you, enjoyed talking numbers with you.

9.7 million is my prediction for sold through

Tier 2 doesn't need 1.3m sales to exceed 10m total. I think you're making this number up.

If you look at my post on the previous page you'll see I'm able to get to 9.5m as a base without even considering if T1 sales increased or factoring in tier 2 sales. So to say 9.7m is your prediction with out even considering this, or using shipped numbers in order to come to a baseline, then I have no idea how you can even make a prediction.

If you're done then be done. But don't slam my posts unless you have credible evidence to do so.

 

[Death2494]

Tier 2 doesn't need 1.3m sales to exceed 10m total. I think you're making this number up.

If you look at my post on the previous page you'll see I'm able to get to 9.5m as a base without even considering if T1 sales increased or factoring in tier 2 sales. So to say 9.7m is your prediction with out even considering this, or using shipped numbers in order to come to a baseline, then I have no idea how you can even make a prediction.

If you're done then be done. But don't slam my posts unless you have credible evidence to do so.

I was never slamming any of your post, I was only questioning your sources. The exact same sources that you have yet to provide.you are asking people to merely accept your numbers as fact and get appalled when someone questions your numbers.your own chart has many inconsistencies or blank spots

if so through with that so close as you suggest,then they wouldn't have switched from Sold through to sold-in in the first place. That would have been no need to.

 

[Final Verdict]

Wow, ya'll put a lot of work into these predictions!
I just did some quick figuring using NPD ratios, and adjusting to reflect how I think it will be on a WW scale to get 11.5M+ X1s shipped.

Which all I really wanted to know is if they passed the 10m sell through Mark, and I am fairly confident they did.

Will be interesting to see if there were more PS4s shipped in Q2 than x1+360 combined.

 

[Death2494]

Wow, ya'll put a lot of work into these predictions!
I just did some quick figuring using NPD ratios, and adjusting to reflect how I think it will be on a WW scale to get 11.5M+ X1s shipped.

Which all I really wanted to know is if they passed the 10m sell through Mark, and I am fairly confident they did.

Will be interesting to see if there were more PS4s shipped in Q2 than x1+360 combined.

that is what this is all about. I thank 9.7 million which represents the floor and 10.5 million that represents the ceiling.

 

[ZhugeEX]

I was never slamming any of your post, I was only questioning your sources. The exact same sources that you have yet to provide.you are asking people to merely accept your numbers as fact and get appalled when someone questions your numbers.your own chart has many inconsistencies or blank spots

if so through with that so close as you suggest,then they wouldn't have switched from Sold through to sold-in in the first place. That would have been no need to.

So now you're questioning the NPD and GFK numbers which have been posted around this forum many times. If you can accept Microsoft saying that they will "shortly ship 10m" units then surely you can accept that they sold through 3 million in CY2013 when they announced that as well? Or do you just pick and choose the numbers?

The PS3 combined numbers with the PS2 despite the fact it outsold the Xbox 360 every year apart from 2010. So that's not an argument for combining numbers.

Wow, ya'll put a lot of work into these predictions!
I just did some quick figuring using NPD ratios, and adjusting to reflect how I think it will be on a WW scale to get 11.5M+ X1s shipped.

Which all I really wanted to know is if they passed the 10m sell through Mark, and I am fairly confident they did.

Will be interesting to see if there were more PS4s shipped in Q2 than x1+360 combined.

It could be close. Certainly over 6 million PS4's were shipped last quarter. Whether it will get to 6.6m remains to be seen.

But even then the PS4 is the best selling console of all time and even matches the Wii's trajectory at this point in time. It'll continue being the best selling console this generation but I doubt we'll see it continue to sell as the Wii in this next year.

that is what this is all about. I thank 9.7 million which represents the floor and 10.5 million that represents the ceiling.

Well you've certainly changed what you said before. You distinctly said, "9.7 million" is too optimistic last time. Now you say it's the floor? Make your mind up! Quote below for proof.
You also said you're basing your guess off PS4 outselling the Xbox One 2:1. Yet you can't back that up where as I can back up the numbers I post.

9.7M might be too generous. Unless you can provide evidence of some kind of sales boost in one of these 29 countries.

 

[Javin98]

So now you're questioning the NPD and GFK numbers which have been posted around this forum many times. If you can accept Microsoft saying that they will "shortly ship 10m" units then surely you can accept that they sold through 3 million in CY2013 when they announced that as well? Or do you just pick and choose the numbers?

The PS3 combined numbers with the PS2 despite the fact it outsold the Xbox 360 every year apart from 2010. So that's not an argument for combining numbers.



It could be close. Certainly over 6 million PS4's were shipped last quarter. Whether it will get to 6.6m remains to be seen.

But even then the PS4 is the best selling console of all time and even matches the Wii's trajectory at this point in time. It'll continue being the best selling console this generation but I doubt we'll see it continue to sell as the Wii in this next year.

I keep seeing people say this, but the truth is the PS4 does not need to keep up with the Wii to surpass it in sales. The most important thing is to sell extremely well consistently and not drop off a cliff. At the end of the generation, I predict the sales of the PS4 will be ~120 million

 

[ZhugeEX]

[/b]
I keep seeing people say this, but the truth is the PS4 does not need to keep up with the Wii to surpass it in sales. The most important thing is to sell extremely well consistently and not drop off a cliff. At the end of the generation, I predict the sales of the PS4 will be ~120 million

Read my post again

I said "in this next year".

The key difference is that the Wii had explosive sales very early on.... and then just kinda stopped after everyone got over the motion control phase.

The Wii was selling every console produced straight through to the end of 2008 and that was almost 50 million consoles before supply was able to keep up with demand. The Wii certainly will sell faster than the PS4 over the next year.

But in terms of actual lifetime sales, well the PS4 will no doubt sell more over a longer period of time. Do I think it'll get to much over 100 million? Likely, but I can't say for sure right now.

 

[vpance]

9.7 million is my prediction for sold through

I'm thinking 9, max. Maybe even in the 8's.

 

[Javin98]

Read my post again

I said "in this next year".

The key difference is that the Wii had explosive sales very early on.... and then just kinda stopped after everyone got over the motion control phase.

The Wii was selling every console produced straight through to the end of 2008 and that was almost 50 million consoles before supply was able to keep up with demand. The Wii certainly will sell faster than the PS4 over the next year.

But in terms of actual lifetime sales, well the PS4 will no doubt sell more over a period of time. Do I think it'll get to over 100 million? Likely, but I can't say for sure right now.

I'm not saying you're wrong at all. My post wasn't really directed at you, just people in general
I was just saying that although the PS4 is slightly behind the Wii in sales, it will no doubt surpass the Wii's LTD in a few years.

I'm thinking 9, max. Maybe even in the 8's.

LOL, 9 million at max would be way below most people's expectations. I personally predict ~9.75 as of 31st December 2014.

 

[ZhugeEX]

I'm not saying you're wrong at all. My post wasn't really directed at you, just people in general
I was just saying that although the PS4 is slightly behind the Wii in sales, it will no doubt surpass the Wii's LTD in a few years.

Agreed. Whilst PS4 will struggle to match Wii's sales next year (based on the CY2008) we should see the PS4 sell better in the long term.

Just to give you an idea of what the Wii did next year-

(FYI, Q4, 2014 for PS4 could be higher than 6m)

 

[theprodigy]

I'm thinking 9, max. Maybe even in the 8's.

is this about the Wii U?

 

[Javin98]

Agreed. Whilst PS4 will struggle to match Wii's sales next year (based on the CY2008) we should see the PS4 sell better in the long term.

Just to give you an idea of what the Wii did next year-

(FYI, Q4, 2014 for PS4 could be higher than 6m)

Good God. The Wii did absolutely phenomenal numbers. Had sales not crated, I think it would have gotten very close to the PS2 sales. I can't really see the PS4 matching the Wii's sales with the exception of holiday seasons (which depends on how aggressive Sony will be)

 

[Death2494]

So now you're questioning the NPD and GFK numbers which have been posted around this forum many times. If you can accept Microsoft saying that they will "shortly ship 10m" units then surely you can accept that they sold through 3 million in CY2013 when they announced that as well? Or do you just pick and choose the numbers?

The PS3 combined numbers with the PS2 despite the fact it outsold the Xbox 360 every year apart from 2010. So that's not an argument for combining numbers.




It could be close. Certainly over 6 million PS4's were shipped last quarter. Whether it will get to 6.6m remains to be seen.

But even then the PS4 is the best selling console of all time and even matches the Wii's trajectory at this point in time. It'll continue being the best selling console this generation but I doubt we'll see it continue to sell as the Wii in this next year.



Well you've certainly changed what you said before. You distinctly said, "9.7 million" is too optimistic last time. Now you say it's the floor? Make your mind up! Quote below for proof.
You also said you're basing your guess off PS4 outselling the Xbox One 2:1. Yet you can't back that up where as I can back up the numbers I post.

Now everybody take a good look at this. But it's me slamming his posts remember? Projection at it's best. (sigh)

According to popular Korean site Game Focus (via tipster Sang), the Xbox One reportedly sold less than 200 units at the console's big launch event at Times Square in Seoul. All the consoles sold at the event were via pre-orders, but the numbers, however, have not been confirmed.....In comparison, Game Focus reports that the PS4 launch event sold over 440 consoles.

France XBOX One LTD according to your chart 416k as of December 31st 2014
PS4 over 1 million as of December 18th 2014
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=143858140
Germany XBOX One LTD minus December 270k minus Decemer 2014
PS4 over 1 million as of November 18th 2014
http://www.psu.com/news/25200/PS4-tops-1-million-sales-in-Germany

Germany ratio 3.7:1 in favor of PS4
France ratio 2.4:1 in favor of PS4

10.2 million sold through is actually about right. But this best case scenario though. Good shit. page 6 of the thread

Open mouth, insert foot

 

[ZhugeEX]

Now everybody take a good look at this. But it's me slamming his posts remember? Projection at it's best. (sigh)

I'm saying you can't back that up for every tier 2 country.

But again, PS4 sales can't be used here... mainly due to the fact we don't have PS4 sales for the majority, if not all of tier 2 countries for 2014.

Also your numbers are out of date. France has sold through more than 1100k for PS4 and Germany is over 1200k for PS4. The PS4 has done much better than you think.

Good God. The Wii did absolutely phenomenal numbers. Had sales not crated, I think it would have gotten very close to the PS2 sales. I can't really see the PS4 matching the Wii's sales with the exception of holiday seasons (which depends on how aggressive Sony will be)

Yup, the Wii was something else in it's first few years. It was easily on track to become the best selling console of all time but the legs weren't there and sales dropped off too sharply and way too quickly. The PS3 and Xbox 360 have seen great legs and are still selling through and eventually, once all is said and done, we could see all 3 consoles (PS3/360/Wii) over 90 million but less than 102 million.