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September 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 13th

O

Opt1kon_

Member
Abdiel said:
Quick and dirty since I'm on the floor:

Ps4 clear victor for us. Distinct gap in sales, the Destiny bundle did better than I was expecting, though that being said, it was not last year's bundle in terms of scale.

Xb1 recovered from the drop off after the tv deal, but people still all about that kind of thing. Way more "hagglers" sigh.

Taken king sold okay, but almost all the people I heard talking about it were doing the direct upgrade or I think buying the voucher card? Hard to tell exactly.

More later with specific questions if I can.
Click to expand...

Thanks Abdiel

Reserved for later The rest of this holiday season shall be interesting
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
My current predictions:

[PS4] 377k
[WIU] 56K
[XB1] 284K
[3DS] 94K

Also reposting a comment made in the results thread since the conversation will obviously shift to this one now.

RexNovis said:
Does anyone else feel like all the XB1 bundles are going way overboard? Not only are their prices all over the place but their bundled software & hardware are also all over the place. I find myself incapable of keeping track of them all at this point especially with all the pricing variation and I'm a gaming enthusiast so I can't even begin to imagine how confusing all these bundles will be for the non enthusiast consumers this holiday season.

It's also odd that so many of these bundles are being used to reinforce the price of the console back to $399 and $499 where they have struggled to sell in the past. Why would you increase the price of a console to meet or exceed the competition when it has only met with success by undercutting it's direct competition?

Some truly baffling decisions coming from MS for this holiday shopping season.
Click to expand...

Also, In regards to the possibility of their issuing a price drop in these bundles for the holidays, why would you go through all the trouble of announcing and advertising a bundle at one price just drop it a month or so later? Doesn't make much sense from a marketing perspective. It's not like people are being given enough time to acclimate to the new pricing such that a small price drop would be seen as a good value. Especially when that price drop puts it in line with the previous price point.

I mention this because I really do find these bundles to kinda ridiculous and I'm wondering if I'm just missing some obvious reason here.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Rymuth said:
Oh my, if you insist~

How's the buzz for Dragon Quest Heroes? Any pre-orders? Customers asking you about the game, etc?
Click to expand...

I mean, I have it preordered. Haha. We've got copies preordered, sure. Not a ton, but some. We got more copies of Persona 4 dancing all night than I expected too, so that was interesting.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Abdiel said:
I mean, I have it preordered. Haha. We've got copies preordered, sure. Not a ton, but some. We got more copies of Persona 4 dancing all night than I expected too, so that was interesting.
Click to expand...

Sounds like Best Buy is ready for the holiday's heavy hitters.
 
H

harrisk954

Member
Don't know how this plays into anyone's predictions, or if it is any indication of trends (considering that the Halo 5 is out in less than a month) but currently on Amazon the XB1 does not even rank any version in the top 100 (closest is Halo 5 Bundle at 116), compared to PS4 with 5 versions in the top 100 (highest is D:TTK at # 12)

Halo 5 Bundle -116
Madden 2016 Bundle - 118
Gears of War Bundle - 129
FIFA Bundle - 168
Elite Bundle - 558
Holiday 3-Game Bundle 776
Lego Movie Bundle 2,641

PS4 has in the top 100:

Taken King Bundle - 12
Last of Us Bundle - 26
Standard PS4 - 76
Call of Duty Bundle - 81
Star Wars LE - 84

This is really strange, if you asked me... 4 weeks away from Halo 5 launching? Any thoughts?
 
Z

ZhugeEX

Banned
RexNovis said:
Does anyone else feel like all the XB1 bundles are going way overboard? Not only are their prices all over the place but their bundled software & hardware are also all over the place. I find myself incapable of keeping track of them all at this point especially with all the pricing variation and I'm a gaming enthusiast so I can't even begin to imagine how confusing all these bundles will be for the non enthusiast consumers this holiday season.

It's also odd that so many of these bundles are being used to reinforce the price of the console back to $399 and $499 where they have struggled to sell in the past. Why would you increase the price of a console to meet or exceed the competition when it has only met with success by undercutting it's direct competition?

Some truly baffling decisions coming from MS for this holiday shopping season..
Click to expand...

It's pretty much exactly what I said would happen.

Microsoft are going all out on bundles this holiday, and aggressively so. At the same time they're not looking to drop the price again as they did last year in order to generate higher margins. At the end of the day these bundles have been crafted so that consumers will think more about the value they're getting. There are a lot of them as you say but that's not a bad thing at all and can actually work in a lot of retailers favour as they can upsell to the "best" bundle or consumers can choose the one that is best in their price range or comes with what they want.

It's a smart move imo as it's likely they'll generate the same/more revenue this way compared to if they were to drop the price again and devalue the console even more.
 
H

Hoje0308

Banned
harrisk954 said:
Don't know how this plays into anyone's predictions, or if it is any indication of trends (considering that the Halo 5 is out in less than a month) but currently on Amazon the XB1 does not even rank any version in the top 100 (closest is Halo 5 Bundle at 116), compared to PS4 with 5 versions in the top 100 (highest is D:TTK at # 12)

Halo 5 Bundle -116
Madden 2016 Bundle - 118
Gears of War Bundle - 129
FIFA Bundle - 168
Elite Bundle - 558
Holiday 3-Game Bundle 776
Lego Movie Bundle 2,641

PS4 has in the top 100:

Taken King Bundle - 12
Last of Us Bundle - 26
Standard PS4 - 76
Call of Duty Bundle - 81
Star Wars LE - 84

This is really strange, if you asked me... 4 weeks away from Halo 5 launching? Any thoughts?
Click to expand...

My guess is that a lot of Halo fans probably bought an X1 immediately, or before the launch of MCC. I suspect those numbers will go up considerably in the coming weeks though, as excitement builds closer to release.
 
H

harrisk954

Member
Hoje0308 said:
My guess is that a lot of Halo fans probably bought an X1 immediately, or before the launch of MCC. I suspect those numbers will go up considerably in the coming weeks though, as excitement builds closer to release.
Click to expand...

I'm sure it will go up considerably, but honestly I thought that XB1 was going to definitely win PS4 in October/November because of Halo 5 ... now I'm not so sure. I really think that XB1 should be trending higher.
 
L

Lemondish

Member
Hoje0308 said:
My guess is that a lot of Halo fans probably bought an X1 immediately, or before the launch of MCC. I suspect those numbers will go up considerably in the coming weeks though, as excitement builds closer to release.
Click to expand...

I can certainly tell you that if they do anything similar to the sales and bundles last year, they'll earn one more sale.
 
O

On Demand

Banned
Abdiel said:
Quick and dirty since I'm on the floor:

Ps4 clear victor for us. Distinct gap in sales, the Destiny bundle did better than I was expecting, though that being said, it was not last year's bundle in terms of scale.

Xb1 recovered from the drop off after the tv deal, but people still all about that kind of thing. Way more "hagglers" sigh.

Taken king sold okay, but almost all the people I heard talking about it were doing the direct upgrade or I think buying the voucher card? Hard to tell exactly.

More later with specific questions if I can.
Click to expand...

How is MGSV looking?

Ryng_Tolu said:
Noooooooooooooooo, i'm not in first page. :(
Click to expand...

Yes you are. :)

100 post per page
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
DriftingSpirit said:
You think X1 will be down from last year? It has a lower price, Destiny re-release and MGS over last year. The price difference almost assures it will be up.
Click to expand...

XB1 had a bigger price in March and was massive down YOY.
Destiny sold 16% first week in UK compared to last year.
Metal Gear is nothing on XBOX.

...There is a VERY little chance for XB1 to be up YOY, but most likely will not.
And, about you'r 355,000 prediction, i can assure you that's not gonna happen...
 
A

allan-bh

Member
harrisk954 said:
Don't know how this plays into anyone's predictions, or if it is any indication of trends (considering that the Halo 5 is out in less than a month) but currently on Amazon the XB1 does not even rank any version in the top 100 (closest is Halo 5 Bundle at 116), compared to PS4 with 5 versions in the top 100 (highest is D:TTK at # 12)

Halo 5 Bundle -116
Madden 2016 Bundle - 118
Gears of War Bundle - 129
FIFA Bundle - 168
Elite Bundle - 558
Holiday 3-Game Bundle 776
Lego Movie Bundle 2,641

PS4 has in the top 100:

Taken King Bundle - 12
Last of Us Bundle - 26
Standard PS4 - 76
Call of Duty Bundle - 81
Star Wars LE - 84

This is really strange, if you asked me... 4 weeks away from Halo 5 launching? Any thoughts?
Click to expand...

I noticed that only FIFA 16 bundle was being sold directly by Amazon (Today Gears bundle is too). This probably affected sales.

About pre-orders, news bundles just arrived and Halo 5 and Elite bundles are very expensive.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Ryng_Tolu said:
XB1 had a bigger price in March and was massive down YOY.
Destiny sold 16% first week in UK compared to last year.
Metal Gear is nothing on XBOX.

...There is a VERY little chance for XB1 to be up YOY, but most likely will not.
And, about you'r 355,000 prediction, i can assure you that's not gonna happen...
Click to expand...
X1 has been up outside of March, correct? I don't know, I just think the lower price will keep it from dropping.

I'll be adjusting my predictions. Those numbers are just to have a starting point. I've already changed my PS4 number about three times already lol.
 
P

prinz_valium

Member
RexNovis said:
Does anyone else feel like all the XB1 bundles are going way overboard? Not only are their prices all over the place but their bundled software & hardware are also all over the place. I find myself incapable of keeping track of them all at this point especially with all the pricing variation and I'm a gaming enthusiast so I can't even begin to imagine how confusing all these bundles will be for the non enthusiast consumers this holiday season.
Click to expand...

just right now

amazon.co.uk has 16 different ps4 bundles and 9 different xb1 bundles
game.co.uk has 12 different ps4 bundles and 22 different xb1 bundles

Ryng_Tolu said:
XB1 had a bigger price in March and was massive down YOY.
Click to expand...

nvm i got wrong xbox one last year numbers
 
A

allan-bh

Member
DriftingSpirit said:
X1 has been up outside of March, correct? I don't know, I just think the lower price will keep it from dropping.

I'll be adjusting my predictions. Those numbers are just to have a starting point. I've already changed my PS4 number about three times already lol.
Click to expand...

Last year had free game on Destiny launch. (And Destiny itself is a system seller). I don't think Xbox One can sell more than 284k.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
DriftingSpirit said:
X1 has been up outside of March, correct? I don't know, I just think the lower price will keep it from dropping.

I'll be adjusting my predictions. Those numbers are just to have a starting point. I've already changed my PS4 number about three times already lol.
Click to expand...

Correct, XB1 so far was up for all months outside March.


DriftingSpirit said:
How much did the X1 cost during that period?
Click to expand...

12027702_153413928339001_6164201610020173599_n.jpg


So far XB1 sold 1,677,000 compared to 1,390,000 of 2014.

der_feine_herr said:
just right now

amazon.co.uk has 16 different ps4 bundles and 9 different xb1 bundles
game.co.uk has 12 different ps4 bundles and 22 different xb1 bundles



xb1 was down 10% YoY this march
and that was the only month this year. all other 7 NPD months, the xb1 was up YoY more or less

so that is what you call massive?
what will you call the ps4 selling "only" 400k
that would be a MASSIVE 25% down YoY
Click to expand...

XB1 was down by 25% this March, not 10%. ( 236,000 VS 311,000 ).
And yes, PS4 will be massive down this month, since last year sold 538,000.
 
P

prinz_valium

Member
DriftingSpirit said:
How much did the X1 cost during that period?
Click to expand...

the xbox one was 399 for the 500gb version without Kinect
they had a one week free destiny game for each xbox bought. across all (big) retailer
also take into account, that not every xbox one came with a free game bundled at that time.
the madden 15 bundle ran out of stock early / mid September

Ryng_Tolu said:
XB1 was down by 25% this March ( 236,000 VS 311,000 ).
And yes, PS4 will be massive down this month, since last year sold 538,000.
Click to expand...

yes, sorry
had the wrong number in mind
 
A

Abdiel

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Sounds like Best Buy is ready for the holiday's heavy hitters.
Click to expand...

Rofl.

Hahaha.

I was expecting my pre-order of the game, and maybe a few more. We got like 14 to 20 copies in several stores.

While our orders for Cod are in the hundreds. Going to be crazy
 
H

harrisk954

Member
allan-bh said:
I noticed that only FIFA 16 bundle was being sold directly by Amazon (Today Gears bundle is too). This probably affected sales.

About pre-orders, news bundles just arrived and Halo 5 and Elite bundles are very expensive.
Click to expand...

Even if that is true, I don't remember ever seeing the XB1 not in the Top 100 since it has been out (at least not in recent memory) and the new bundles are included in the Amazon rankings.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
ZhugeEX said:
It's pretty much exactly what I said would happen.

Microsoft are going all out on bundles this holiday, and aggressively so. At the same time they're not looking to drop the price again as they did last year in order to generate higher margins. At the end of the day these bundles have been crafted so that consumers will think more about the value they're getting. There are a lot of them as you say but that's not a bad thing at all and can actually work in a lot of retailers favour as they can upsell to the "best" bundle or consumers can choose the one that is best in their price range or comes with what they want.

It's a smart move imo as it's likely they'll generate the same/more revenue this way compared to if they were to drop the price again and devalue the console even more.
Click to expand...
Well, announcing a high price, only to slash it even more afterwards is nearly bazaar marketing. Very strange.
The bundles i saw so far have some bizarre choices (and unappealing packaging, really), and spreading sales between so many SKUs will keep the single bundle low in sales rankings. Or one console starts to fly (fallout or halo 5 tomorrow, please) and the rest will collect dust on store shelves.
All in all this might be a move to gain shelf space and once again flood channels. But it all seems so half-baken.
If they want to leave an impression this holiday with these bundles at this pricepoint - good luck.
Maybe they generate more profit as they at last gain money on consoles sold, but pushing the install base would look different.

Oh, and zughe, how long are you celebrating your birthday...
 
C

Conduit

Banned
Abdiel said:
Quick and dirty since I'm on the floor:

Ps4 clear victor for us. Distinct gap in sales, the Destiny bundle did better than I was expecting, though that being said, it was not last year's bundle in terms of scale.

Xb1 recovered from the drop off after the tv deal, but people still all about that kind of thing. Way more "hagglers" sigh.

Taken king sold okay, but almost all the people I heard talking about it were doing the direct upgrade or I think buying the voucher card? Hard to tell exactly.

More later with specific questions if I can.
Click to expand...

Thanks for info. Anyway, i expect huge gap, a little lower than last year in September ( gap was around 250k ). Around 170-210k for September this year.

[3DS] 100K
[PS4] 440K
[WIU] 45K
[XB1] 240K
 
H

hawk2025

Member
Abdiel said:
I mean, I have it preordered. Haha. We've got copies preordered, sure. Not a ton, but some. We got more copies of Persona 4 dancing all night than I expected too, so that was interesting.
Click to expand...


Any indications on the split between platforms for MGSV?

It was one of the few games I picked up on PS4 physical recently, and just so happened to do the whole online-buy-in-store-pickup thing.

I went early in the morning, and my Best Buy had pre-orders sitting on piles.


I'd imagine the PS4 pile was something like 4 or 5 times larger than the Xbox One pile. Although unlikely to be representative, is something like 2:1 what you would expect?
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
hawk2025 said:
Any indications on the split between platforms for MGSV?

It was one of the few games I picked up on PS4 physical recently, and just so happened to do the whole online-buy-in-store-pickup thing.

I went early in the morning, and my Best Buy had pre-orders sitting on piles.


I'd imagine the PS4 pile was something like 4 or 5 times larger than the Xbox One pile. Although unlikely to be representative, is something like 2:1 what you would expect?
Click to expand...
5 times more seems too much, but here is the undeniable proof:

Amazon customer reviews

MGS V PS4: 317
MGS V XboxOne: 61

Do the maths.
 
S

Spazgadget

Member
harrisk954 said:
Don't know how this plays into anyone's predictions, or if it is any indication of trends (considering that the Halo 5 is out in less than a month) but currently on Amazon the XB1 does not even rank any version in the top 100 (closest is Halo 5 Bundle at 116), compared to PS4 with 5 versions in the top 100 (highest is D:TTK at # 12)

This is really strange, if you asked me... 4 weeks away from Halo 5 launching? Any thoughts?
Click to expand...

I thought this was pretty odd too. I figure the pending bundles might have people holding out for a sweeter deal, but... it seems unbelievable to me that not a single X1 is in the top 100, especially a month before their biggest franchise. I know most people who want Halo probably already bought one, but... really? Did sales tank that badly?

Edit: finally getting my predictions in:
[3DS] 130K
[PS4] 337K
[WIU] 65K
[XB1] 281K
 
S

super6646

Banned
[3DS] 78k (you better not be screwing me over Ryng)
[PS4] 345k
[WIU] 57k
[XB1] 285k

I think my prediction is pretty reasonable.
 
Z

ZhugeEX

Banned
slavesnyder said:
Well, announcing a high price, only to slash it even more afterwards is nearly bazaar marketing. Very strange.
The bundles i saw so far have some bizarre choices (and unappealing packaging, really), and spreading sales between so many SKUs will keep the single bundle low in sales rankings. Or one console starts to fly (fallout or halo 5 tomorrow, please) and the rest will collect dust on store shelves.
All in all this might be a move to gain shelf space and once again flood channels. But it all seems so half-baken.
If they want to leave an impression this holiday with these bundles at this pricepoint - good luck.
Maybe they generate more profit as they at last gain money on consoles sold, but pushing the install base would look different.

Oh, and zughe, how long are you celebrating your birthday...
Click to expand...

I get what you're saying. But they're still cheaper than Sony and more importantly have more perceived value. That's what matters these days. Sure they could go under $300 but what is that actually going to do for the company, not much outside of shift a few extra units and lower margin.

My birthday goes on as long as I say it does!
 
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