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[Calm waterfall]

Fantastic news, and well deserved!

Easily one of the best consoles ever made, and so many, many incredible games already. Next year looks like it's going to blow the barn doors off and take the industry to even greater heights too. Cannot wait!



The NX shouldn't even be trying to compete with the PS4. It'll get destroyed.

They need to aim for stealing MS's lunch.

The PS4 is untouchable, but if they can marry up their first party brands with at least comparable western third party support and maintain relations with Japanese Devs, then they can give the XO a kicking.

Then next gen, when everything gets set back to zero, then they can have a go with the NX2 at going head to head with Sony and the PS5.

I don´t see that happening since most third party games won´t be coming to the NX based on Nintendo´s recent history with core games/gamers and their different demographics from the PS4/X1. Honestly your scenario is more wishful thinking than based on reality. At least from what we have seen the last couple of years. And if you think for once that third party developers will flock to the NX just because, you will be mistaking. There is no reason for western developers to support the NX, and there´s zero chance of the NX wining over the X1.

 

[Bits N Pieces]

That really is some incredible numbers, Some ny suits must be sitting in there off ice laughing saying this is easy.

Build a powerful console for a good price, make it about the games and have good relationships with the 3rd parties.

Who would have thought it lol

 

[Bastables]

Console is great but first party software wise a letdown for now. So I really don't get how it's selling so much. Congrats to them anyways.
Next year it's going to explode

Not even exclusives now, it' suddenly about first party. Dem goalposts and the unmitigated failure of PS4.

 

[Lebneney]

Congrats to Sony, that's a lot of consoles.

Does anyone know how that compares to the PS2 at the same time during its console cycle?

 

[Newtype-001]

Reposting for the new page

Just to put this in perspective the last announcement we have is that Sony had shipped 29.3 million units by Sept 30th. That means in just over a month they managed to not only sell through their existing stock but also an additional 700k units BEFORE we even made it to Black Friday sales.

Amazing really.

 

[E-phonk]

just bought myself the ps4 1 TB + 2nd controller + uncharted remastered bundle
so +1 from me

 

[Rymuth]

do people actually care about marketing deals as regular customers tho?

That's a tough question. Destiny and Battlefront did wonders for Sony.

Conversely, Witcher 3, Evolve, DA: Inquisition and Fallout 4 didn't seem to have an effect with Microsoft.

 

[FinalD]

45 million by next years end is possible.

Assuming they'll be at around 35 million by the end of this year, 45 million is pretty low though.

 

[Stilton Disco]

I don´t see that happening since most third party games won´t be coming to the NX based on Nintendo´s recent history with core games/gamers and their different demographics from the PS4/X1.

Then they're fucked. Simple as that.

Sure, they'll still likely to be able to turn a profit off what fans remain like with the WiiU, but it'll do nothing to reverse the downward trend of their ever shrinking user base.

 

[googleplex]

Well earned Sony. Well earned.

40 million before PSVR! You can do it.

I think PSVR will be landing in march. I think higher then 40 million.

 

[Klart]

Boom!

 

[Steroyd]

I don´t see that happening since most third party games won´t be coming to the NX based on Nintendo´s recent history with core games/gamers and their different demographics from the PS4/X1.

Bear in mind that in that recent history, Nintendo made a PS2-like console in the PS3 era and a PS3-like console in the PS4 era, devs abandoned making games at those levels a while ago but tried to scale down their games onto the console anyway these "half assed" ports weren't well recieved, which led to lower sales which lead to devs not even bothering with the console and it snowballs.

I think it will completely depend on what's under the NX's hood.

 

[HellofaMouse]

That's a tough question. Destiny and Battlefront did wonders for Sony.

Conversely, Witcher 3, Evolve, DA: Inquisition and Fallout 4 didn't seem to have an effect with Microsoft.

I think thats because destiny and battleffront are multiplayer games and ppl just have more friends with ps4s than xbones, not because of the marketing deals themselves.

 

[Javin98]

Yep, this is in line with my predictions. Now I'm very confident with my 36 million sold through figure by the end of 2015. Black Friday hasn't even started yet and we know about half of November sales are from Black Friday. I can see 31.8 million sold through by the end of November, then another 4.2 million in December.

 

[TBiddy]

I think diversity is a big reason for the platforms success as well. Sure the majority of gamers may not care about a niche title from Japan or a game like Until Dawn, but when people try out or buy them, they know that those kind of experiences can be hard to find elsewhere.

Little by little over time, the diverse range of games stack up to make for a compelling reason to own the system.

Diversity is of course a good thing for any system, but in my mind not many consoles are sold because of those games.

well yeah, no one really cares about those. it's more of a factor of every game site reporting on ps4 stuff so often with good stuff (or at least the theory goes), that i makes the ps4 sound like the obviously superior choice. more of death (well in this case, success) by a thousand cuts

PS4 is, more often than not, the superior choice for many people. But I'd argue, that it oftens comes down to brand value. Lets say PS4 is Coca Cola and XB1 is Pepsi.

Many say they prefer Coca Cola and can't stand the taste of Pepsi. But when it comes down to it in a blind test, how many can tell the difference?

 

[OléGunner]

That's a tough question. Destiny and Battlefront did wonders for Sony.

Conversely, Witcher 3, Evolve, DA: Inquisition and Fallout 4 didn't seem to have an effect with Microsoft.

I think Sony have gone with mega new IP i.e Star Wars, Destiny, Watch Dogs etc where maybe its easier to build that close alignment. There's been a lot of stories on Gaf where people have relayed that some folks irl thought Destiny was an exclusive to PS4 at launch.

In comparison a lot of MS marketing deals are for established franchises where maybe its a bit tougher to generate that alignment. But it'sa naturally just harder for them as the PS4 install base dwarfs theirs.

 

[AniHawk]

Then they're fucked. Simple as that.

Sure, they'll still likely to be able to turn a profit off what fans remain like with the WiiU, but it'll do nothing to reverse the downward trend of their ever shrinking user base.

nintendo's own output is going to mirror what theirs looked like in the game boy/nes days, except it'll be dedicated hardware (nx platform) and nondedicated (android/ios games). it sounds like they're putting serious consideration into the development of miitomo and the other mobile games, so that should be considered when looking at their first-party stuff for the nx. that said, if the nx is truly what it seems like it'll be, then it'll essentially be the 3ds and the wii u userbase as one platform. it means a lot more japanese games if you were strictly a console owner and a lot more family games if you were a handheld player.

i also think it's going to essentially replace the vita as the companion to the ps4. something that was pretty interesting that happened between 2010 and 2015 (and which will probably continue into 2016 and 2017) was how the psp and ps3 were slowly treated as a single platform, followed by psp/ps3/psv, and then ps3/ps4/psv, and now it's ps4/psv. this is where i think nintendo, by potentially having the big userbase in japan, and having a platform comparable to ps4, will get a lot of the games that were originally ps4/psv. it also means i think the ps4 will in turn also get a lot of the game that might have been just 3ds in the past, again, since porting will be easy. this is what i think the future of main monster hunter games will be, for instance.

 

[TBiddy]

I think Sony have gone with mega new IP i.e Star Wars, Destiny, Watch Dogs etc where maybe its easier to build that close alignment. There's been a lot of stories on Gaf where people have relayed that some folks irl thought Destiny was an exclusive to PS4 at launch.

In comparison a lot of MS marketing deals are for established franchises where maybe its a bit tougher to generate that alignment. But it'sa naturally just harder for them as the PS4 install base dwarfs theirs.

I don't believe for one second that marketing deals actually do anything meaningful to market share. It's all about the market share of the consoles.

Sure, there might be an anecdotal history about someone thinking Destiny was exclusive, but there's also anecdotal histories about someones friends going 9:1 in digital vs. physical.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

~23 million at E3.

25,300,000 at E3 shipped.

 

[bananafactory]

25,300,000 at E3 shipped.

So they've sold through probably 6 million in 5 months. Notbad.jpg

 

[jonaa]

Is there a scenario where the PS4 lead becomes big enough that no multiplat publisher will want to do marketing deals with Microsoft? Or how does that stuff work...

 

[derwalde]

I wouldnt read too much into this.

 

[Toki767]

Is there a scenario where the PS4 lead becomes big enough that no multiplat publisher will want to do marketing deals with Microsoft? Or how does that stuff work...

No. Marketing deals give publishers free money to their budget. Plus Sony isn't going to get a marketing deal with every game.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Yep, this is in line with my predictions. Now I'm very confident with my 36 million sold through figure by the end of 2015. Black Friday hasn't even started yet and we know about half of November sales are from Black Friday. I can see 31.8 million sold through by the end of November, then another 4.2 million in December.

I will go with 35.5 million

~1.25m in Black Friday. ~4 million in December.

 

[Calm waterfall]

Bear in mind that in that recent history, Nintendo made a PS2-like console in the PS3 era and a PS3-like console in the PS4 era, devs abandoned making games at those levels a while ago but tried to scale down their games onto the console anyway these "half assed" ports weren't well recieved, which led to lower sales which lead to devs not even bothering with the console and it snowballs.

I think it will completely depend on what's under the NX's hood.

I was talking about third party support not the console itself.

 

[Mpl90]

nintendo's own output is going to mirror what theirs looked like in the game boy/nes days, except it'll be dedicated hardware (nx platform) and nondedicated (android/ios games). it sounds like they're putting serious consideration into the development of miitomo and the other mobile games, so that should be considered when looking at their first-party stuff for the nx. that said, if the nx is truly what it seems like it'll be, then it'll essentially be the 3ds and the wii u userbase as one platform. it means a lot more japanese games if you were strictly a console owner and a lot more family games if you were a handheld player.

It's also true that mobile games usually take a far, far lower amount of resources to make than console / handheld games, especially once they're launched (which should be also when DeNA starts managing them), so I think first party output on NX shouldn't be that affected by mobile games.

 

[leeh]

25,300,000 at E3 shipped.

Insane.

Congrats to Sony. Selling through 5 million in 6 months is a feat. Console gaming is dead!

 

[Nightengale]

Is there a scenario where the PS4 lead becomes big enough that no multiplat publisher will want to do marketing deals with Microsoft? Or how does that stuff work...

Nah.

Sony only has so much money and so much deals it can sign. Deals need prioritisation to be effective.

If Sony isn't going to give you a good marketing support, who else do you go to other than MS if you really need a marketing partner?

 

[gundamkyoukai]

great sales , should be able to reach 34 million by the end of the year .

 

[Ryng_tolu]

So they've sold through probably 6 million in 5 months. Notbad.jpg

Even more, because 25.3m was shipped, not sold.

PS4 sold 11.7 million so far in 2015.

PS4 was at 18.5 million unit sold by end of 2014, and 20.2 million by end of February.

 

[Javin98]

I will go with 35.5 million

~1.25m in Black Friday. ~4 million in December.

We'll see. Most of us underestimated the shipments of the PS4 for Q2 and Q3 2015 and it ended up shipping better than we thought. I wouldn't be surprised if it does so again by the end of the year. But yeah, your estimations may be more reasonable right now. Either way, the PS4 will probably end up somewhere in between by the end of 2015.

 

[Welfare]

So they've sold through probably 6 million in 5 months. Notbad.jpg

20.2 million was sold through at the end of February.

Out of 52 weeks, the first 8 were part of the 20.2m number, and there are 6 more weeks of sales in the year after 30.2 million, so 10 million PS4's were sold to consumers over 38 weeks.

 

[Rymuth]

If Sony isn't going to give you a good marketing support, who else do you go to other than MS if you really need a marketing partner?

At that time, would there really be much point? I mean, the publisher'll be laughing to the bank getting free marketing but what good would it be for MS if the game sells better on PS4 anyway?

Relationship management.

You keep publishers happy.

Fair point. Touche.

 

[Nightengale]

At that point, would there really be much point? I mean, the publisher'll be laughing to the bank getting free marketing but what good would it be for MS if the game sells better on PS4 anyway?

Relationship management.

You keep publishers happy.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

For who wanna know all PS4 numbers in term of sold-through:

30 Nov 2013: 2,100,000
28 Dec 2013: 4,200,000
28 Feb 2014: 6,000,000
31 Mar 2014: 7,000,000
GamesCom 2014: 10,000,000
3 Jan 2015: 18,500,000
1 Mar 2015: 20,200,000
Now: 30,200,000

 

[OléGunner]

Diversity is of course a good thing for any system, but in my mind not many consoles are sold because of those games.

Yeah I'd agree. Just trying to say maybe it adds to a more nice well rounded software library in years 3,4,5 that makes the system a tad more attractive.

By no means a major game changer though.

I don't believe for one second that marketing deals actually do anything meaningful to market share. It's all about the market share of the consoles.

Sure, there might be an anecdotal history about someone thinking Destiny was exclusive, but there's also anecdotal histories about someones friends going 9:1 in digital vs. physical.

Ha! True

Overall though I do think Sony's 3rd party strategy/marketing is firing on all cylinders like I've never seen and has been a part driver of selling systems.

 

[hodayathink]

I don't think PSVR will be a systemseller. It might be popular amongst owners, but it won't sell a lot of systems. When the PS4 and the XB1 will peak is a good question. Personally I think the XB1 will reach 20 million shipped this year, which is solid, but nowhere near the PS4 of course. But I keep seeing the argument here on Gaf, that "next year it will explode!". I don't think it will. It may sell a bit more than this year, or a bit less, but considering the price, I think many of the potential customers have already bought in.

I think the biggest thing is that software sells hardware, and next year the PS4 is going to have more (and bigger) high profile software than it has in any year since launch. Street Fighter in February is higher profile than The Order. Uncharted in March is higher profile than Bloodborne. Gran Turismo Sport, Ratchet and Clank (with the movie), and Horizon are high profile games that will release in the middle/end of the year. And add to that the fact that I think next year is the year we finally see the true death of cross gen multiplats, and things like the first next-gen only Call of Duty, and I think either the first next-gen only Battlefield or Titanfall as a multiplat game (because EA is releasing another shooter next year, I'm just not sure which one), and I don't see how next year doesn't end up much better than this year. Maybe even much, much better if they can space out these releases well to drive hardware adoption during the slower months.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

US sales are nothing special considering where the PS4 is worldwide.
Of course for other consoles these sales would be fine but when you consider how insane it sells in europe, asia and ME you have to wonder why not in the US?

US sales are in line with other PS systems , which is around 30 to 35% of total sales .

 

[Ryng_tolu]

We'll see. Most of us underestimated the shipments of the PS4 for Q2 and Q3 2015 and it ended up shipping better than we thought. I wouldn't be surprised if it does so again by the end of the year. But yeah, your estimations may be more reasonable right now. Either way, the PS4 will probably end up somewhere in between by the end of 2015.

Well, is not the first time that i underestimate the PS4.
Not gonna be surprised if will sell again more... But like you said, we'll see.

 

[Alex_Mexico]

PS4 is killing it.

Since US installbase is 10M that mean 70% of sales are from EU and other regions.

For us in North America (Mexico included because North America) where the Xbox brand is big if not bigger sometimes than Playstation it's easy to loose the picture of just how big PS is in the rest of the world.

 

[TBiddy]

Yeah I'd agree. Just trying to say maybe it adds to a more nice well rounded software library in years 3,4,5 that makes the system a tad more attractive.

By no means a major game changer though.

Overall though I do think Sony's 3rd party strategy/marketing is firing on all cylinders like I've never seen and has been a part driver of selling systems.

I agree, although I think the effect of marketing deals is negligble. Sony would still be beating Microsoft without them.

I think the biggest thing is that software sells hardware, and next year the PS4 is going to have more (and bigger) high profile software than it has in any year since launch. Street Fighter in February is higher profile than The Order. Uncharted in March is higher profile than Bloodborne. Gran Turismo Sport, Ratchet and Clank (with the movie), and Horizon are high profile games that will release in the middle/end of the year. And add to that the fact that I think next year is the year we finally see the true death of cross gen multiplats, and things like the first next-gen only Call of Duty, and I think either the first next-gen only Battlefield or Titanfall as a multiplat game (because EA is releasing another shooter next year, I'm just not sure which one), and I don't see how next year doesn't end up much better than this year. Maybe even much, much better if they can space out these releases well to drive hardware adoption during the slower months.

I don't think SF is higher profile than The Order, which was hyped to the moon and back. Sure, there are big games coming out in 2016, but 2015 has been great as well:

http://www.metacritic.com/browse/games/score/metascore/year/ps4/filtered

Or perhaps this is more saying (most discussed): http://www.metacritic.com/browse/games/score/metascore/discussed/ps4/filtered?sort=desc

The upcoming games will get hyped, but it's sometime easy to forget that 2015 was actually a fantastic year for a lot of gamers.

 

[Sordid]

Sony crushing it

 

[Javin98]

Well, is not the first time that i underestimate the PS4.
Not gonna be surprised if will sell again more... But like you said, we'll see.

We still have that bet going on, right?

 

[EGM1966]

US sales are nothing special considering where the PS4 is worldwide.
Of course for other consoles these sales would be fine but when you consider how insane it sells in europe, asia and ME you have to wonder why not in the US?

Xbox One.

US is only region, leveraging strong brand image from last gen with (thus far) very aggressive deals, bundling etc, where MS is taking a decent slice of market and getting decent split of big multi-platform title sales.

Next best is probably Mexico going by what I've read.

Tehn there's UK but sales split show more PS4 owners buying multiplatform games than Xbox.

After those two PS4 is dominant pretty much everywhere else.

So long as MA can hang on to decent US sales PS4 will look weaker there than ROW.

 

[Shenmue]

How many PS+ users though?

 

[AnthonypUK]

Amazing. I think they'll definitely hit 35 million by the end of the year, or come very close to it.



Shenmue is 2017. And I'm doubting we'll get both FFXV and KH3 next year. We'll be lucky to get one of those. Wouldn't be surprised if Detroit is 2017 as well.



Doubt it. Seems like Sony will have Star Wars all locked up.

Yup, Disney takes care of all Star Wars marketing and they're tight with Sony, hence Battlefront, IMO all new star wars games will have Sony ties.

EA is pretty tight with Microsoft so expect Mass Effect to be tied to the Xbone

 

[GRaider81]

I




I don't think SF is higher profile than The Order , which was hyped to the moon and back. Sure, there are big games coming out in 2016, but 2015 has been great as well:


The upcoming games will get hyped, but it's sometime easy to forget that 2015 was actually a fantastic year for a lot of gamers.

I can get on board with 2015 but the bolded quote is crazy

 

[Nightengale]

How many PS+ users though?

Ratio so far has been 50% of PS4 install base, so maybe 15 million?

 

[Shenmue]

Ratio so far has been 50% of PS4 install base, so maybe 15 million?

Wow they've stated that half of the install base subscribes? That's pretty damn good.

 

[CoolOff]

There's probably another 120 million PS4s out there. 4 out of 5 of my friends bought their PS4s digitally.

Underrated post tbqh