135m more likely.
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NPD Sales Results for November 2015 [Up3: Combined Hardware For PS4 + XB1 + Wii U]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
135m more likely.
i'm thinking 115 million, assuming we're looking at 2019 here.
I really hope there will be lunch.
ShockingAlberto
Member
the newest PSVR game
Bento Bonanza
Short answer is it probably won't.
Long answer is it might not be trying to but it's hard to say until we, you know, know what it is.
freefornow
Gold Member
They have done some good things with the continual improvements, but for a lot of regions, it will continue to struggle going forward. I feel that 35M would be a achievable target. 38-40M will be a stretch (to Nov 2019).
CosmicQueso
Member
Totally. Given that we don't know price, specs, slate, anything, it's easy to make this call. Yep.
Now I feel bad. Sorry
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Mine breast feeds off a diet of all the whiskey I drink. Such a good little man, gon' be like his pappy.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I always figured Nintendo would have to make the most of their segment rather than take on MS and Sony directly. So, instead of selling 10mil units, they'll sale ~30 or so and it will be a success because Nintendo built everything for that type of number to be successful.
small44
Member
The only way for NX to compete with PS4 and XB1 is to attract a new audience just like what happened with the Wii ,but it will probably never happen.
No you've missed the latest. I've read "it's mobile-like CPU" now several times.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Well it's nintendo i really don't have much hope console wise .
You never know maybe we will get another unprecedented partnership.
Redesign isn't really about making the console thinner, that's just a by-product of making a revision that's cheaper to produce over a long period of time. Less plastic usually means thinner, smaller console.
Kinda wish the GameCube could of got a proper redesign, but that's like hoping for a Wii U redesign at this point.
Jeez sry.
Boombloxer
Member
Yes, it was the actual name and called that because they upgraded the hardware. It looked like this:
Look at the plus in the corner. First major revision.
It's actually pretty surprising how many people didn't know this. It wasn't priced higher, which is why it worked, same price.
So if there is a PS4+, that's in line with prior revisions, only with no price increase.
To be clear, I don't think the console market is like Cell phones, and I think offfering this for a higher price is dumb. But same price? No difference or market confusion.
The NX is going to feel sorta 90s in that the vast majority of its retail* third party support will be Japanese and we'll be wondering in every game thread if said game will be localized!
*added retail because I saw indie games brought up earlier in a comparison re: Wii U and Dreamcast third party releases.
*added retail because I saw indie games brought up earlier in a comparison re: Wii U and Dreamcast third party releases.
Yes, it was the actual name and called that because they upgraded the hardware. It looked like this:
Look at the plus in the corner. First major revision.
It's actually pretty surprising how many people didn't know this. It wasn't priced higher, which is why it worked, same price.
So if there is a PS4+, that's in line with prior revisions, only with no price increase.
To be clear, I don't think the console market is like Cell phones, and I think offfering this for a higher price is dumb. But same price? No difference or market confusion.
Your link doesn't work.
Boombloxer
Member
It's loading on my computer, posted from my cellphone.
Here's another shot for you, with a normal PS2 box:
SMOK3Y
Generous Member
Yes, it was the actual name and called that because they upgraded the hardware. It looked like this:
Look at the plus in the corner. First major revision.
It's actually pretty surprising how many people didn't know this. It wasn't priced higher, which is why it worked, same price.
So if there is a PS4+, that's in line with prior revisions, only with no price increase.
To be clear, I don't think the console market is like Cell phones, and I think offfering this for a higher price is dumb. But same price? No difference or market confusion.
That just added progressive scan dvd playback to the ps2. It wasn't anything major just a normal revision. SCPH-50000
ZeroMaverick
Member
Just Dance 2016 was in the top 10...with Wii as the leading platform...
Yes, it was the actual name and called that because they upgraded the hardware. It looked like this:
Look at the plus in the corner. First major revision.
It's actually pretty surprising how many people didn't know this. It wasn't priced higher, which is why it worked, same price.
So if there is a PS4+, that's in line with prior revisions, only with no price increase.
To be clear, I don't think the console market is like Cell phones, and I think offfering this for a higher price is dumb. But same price? No difference or market confusion.
Fairly positive it was not branded as PS2+. The + was just on the box.
CosmicQueso
Member
Why does branding matter so much? It was a hardware revision but it doesn't count because it wasn't branded as PS2+?
My new prediction is it will hit 33 million consoles, sold-through. This is assuming its' successor launches in 3 years time. 33 million sold-through would be roughly 55 million less consoles than the 360, making it a very disappointing result for the Xbox business.
Due to Microsoft's new focus on reporting MAUS, we'll never know the exact final sold-through number. However, due to excellent posts from NPD_George, Cosmic, and Bruno, we'll be able to get 'close enough' to the final number. I hope these guys/gals stick around and are able to continue to provide relevant sales data regarding the console business, specifically, relevant data pertaining to the Xbox One's performance at retail.
To expand on my sell-through prediction, I see the One selling 12 million more consoles in NA, 5 million more in EU, and 2 million more in other territories. Furthermore, given the failure of multiple high-profile Xbox One exclusives (e.g. Halo 5, Tomb Raider, Forza 6), I predict consumer faith and consumer satisfaction in the Xbox brand will be at its lowest at the close of the generation. This is important to be aware of because it will be the most important deciding factor on what kind of product will follow the Xbox One. In other words, if the majority of Xbox customers are dissatisfied with the Xbox brand, then the Xbox Two will not resemble the Xbox One. It won't matter if the Xbox One sells 33 million or 34 million consoles.
It only added progressive scan for DVD's, only implemented in such a manner because there was no other way. Something like that could be done in software updates today
theprodigy
Member
well I finished my last exam, why did it have to be at 7-10
PM
opticalmace
Member
I have to proctor an exam from 7-10pm next week... bleh!
edit: I didn't realize this was still the NPD thread... thought it was the finals thread in off-topic.
Boombloxer
Member
This is what I said. The + was there to let buyers know which version it was--it wasn't a full on re-branding launch like the PS3 slim, but it was there as a differentiator for a hardware revision. And it added more than progressive scan.
It doesn't in this case, soft notification vs a full-on campaign for a hardware revision is just marketing. It's a hardware revision that was communicated to the consumer on every box going forward until they did another one.
So something like that is more likely.
Anything beyond that is semantics, Sony obviously thought it was important enough to tell people.
Do you use consumer satisfaction as a test for quality or what?
There is no way it does only thirty three million. Are you saying it will only sell 16 million more consoles until next gen starts? That seems a super low prediction.
I initially had the XB1 pegged for ~40-45 million this gen.
It might not even reach those numbers considering how dead it is outside of the US and even within the US it's only during holidays that it sells well.
XB1 will probably end up at ~30-35 million.
Primethius
Banned
So much honestly depends on how the XB1 performs in the rest of the world going into the next few years and including this one.
To be honest, I'm thinking that it's probably going to pull much less numbers then 2014 in pretty much every country bar US/UK and that's going to impact it's upper limit quite a bit.
33 still sounds a bit low however.
spatenfloot
Member
They would probably keep selling the PS4 as a budget model when the PS5 releases. It should be really cheap by then and will appeal to a different market. Due to the architecture of the PS4, I am pretty sure the PS5 will be backwards compatible like PCs.Imru al-Qays;188999423 said:
For the Xbone, I think at best it could reach 40 million unless something changes drastically.
Where do you see more sales coming from, other than the US?
I don't see any other growing markets for them, so 30-35 million seems appropriate.
Looking at next years line-up for the Xbox One, what's going to be Microsoft's biggest seller other than Gears 4? I'm not quite sold on the idea of Quantum Break being a big hit, even after they got some big actors on board.
I'll be buying it because it's Remedy, but I doubt the general public cares about how awesome they are.
Will MS just market the shit out of it?
I'll be buying it because it's Remedy, but I doubt the general public cares about how awesome they are.
Will MS just market the shit out of it?
small44
Member
Only 6 millions more than the original Xbox sound too low for me.
Halo Wars 2?
How much did the first one sell, do we know?
X360 got most of its install base from PS fans jumping from the disaster that was PS3, at least in US and UK.
This gen, Sony is back and firing on all cylinders; it's now leading comfortably in Xbox's main markets and booming in developing markets...
Xbox is a marginal platform with no potential growth, especially now that its main competitor isn't actively fucking up.
30-35 million is reasonable.
Beautiful Ninja
Member
Are you really expecting an RTS spinoff to do big numbers? I'd be surprised if it did a million copies. Halo's name can only carry it so far and it's pretty clear no that the Halo name isn't what it used to be.
The only known IP's MS has coming up are Crackdown and Gears, both of which are coming off bad installments and had to be rebooted. After that MS is putting their hope in a bunch of new IP's and looking at the 360, I don't think I trust MS at all when it comes to fostering new IP growth.
I know Quantum Break is getting a lot of hype on internet forums since the makers of Alan Wake are behind it, but I don't think Remedy has the name recognition a lot of people here think they do.
I agree. The Xbox One is doing much better in America than the original Xbox did and the system should get more than four years of solid support.
That will be a pretty sizable market contraction then considering I see PS4 hitting only 100 -110 million units. I hope that is not the case and the gap is filled by one of these consoles.
small44
Member
PS4 won't sell like PS2 ,so i don't think Sony will take back all the gamers who bough an xbox360.
40 millions look reasonable to me and it's half of the Xbox360 sales which is a big gap.
I feel like Halo Wars 2 is gonna sell well on the PC. I remember a lot of people being disappointed that the first game wasn't on PC and that was Ensemble Studios last game.
Do we know if there's gonna be cross-play? I don't see why there wouldn't be.
The thing is, if Nintendo do try to compete for the Sony/MS audience, then NX will be competing with both PS4 and PS5. There's various ways to handle it, we'll have to see which one they choose. That's assuming they can get it ready in time to launch next year, if they can't and launch late 2017 then it's effectively a next-gen console getting a head start over PS5/XB2. Even if it launches 2016 PS4 will be around 50m by then...
Won't that put them in another situation where Nintendo will need to separate themselves from the pack, but by doing so alienate themselves from getting proper third-party support?
Nintendo is in a very precarious spot.
I agree with you on Halo Wars 2 being a B-tier title. However, Microsoft might throw some money behind it because it is a rare high budget RTS release on PC, maybe they'll try the eSports angle again.
As for the other titles. I think people are vastly overestimating the pull of Crackdown and Remedy. If the games turn out good I would like both do do well but Crackdown was only ever commercially relevant as a Halo vehicle and Remedy couldn't pull great numbers as an tentpole exclusive on a way stronger XBOX platform.
I also hope MS doesn't try to drop a car on the stage to announce Forza Horizon 3 at E3. The franchise is way too oversaturated.