I know right. Halo 3 in this day and age would sell much less than Halo 5. Purists don't seem to realize that. The landscape has changed. Games have their periods in time and people move on
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Kotaku UK Rumor: Xbox One, Windows 10, Halo 5, & Minecraft notably below expectations
- Thread starter Nirolak
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They definitely can and did with halo 5. Some of the best MP in the series
Exactly! Not to mention they supported the shit outta of it and continue to do so.
It's exactly that. People are missing the context and jumping straight on Minecraft underperforming overall when it's about underperforming on a single platform.
Minecraft is doing crazy numbers, just not on the Windows store.
Primethius
Banned
I know the article is fairly vague on the actual details.
And yea, selling 50 milliom Minecraft copies is impressive.
But consider the ROTR news with it being 98% steam.
Perhaps it's not Minecraft as a whole that's significantly under expectations but the versions that MS benefits from most.
That makes sense to me. What am I missing?
And yea, selling 50 milliom Minecraft copies is impressive.
But consider the ROTR news with it being 98% steam.
Perhaps it's not Minecraft as a whole that's significantly under expectations but the versions that MS benefits from most.
That makes sense to me. What am I missing?
ethomaz
Banned
The bold was true for end of 2015 and it was really close numbers because 360 was already catching.
Now for mid 2016 I'm strong in line to think 360 is ahead Xbone... the fact MS stopped to claim that in PR support this point.
MCC made it hard to convince any of my friends that Halo 5 had the best multiplayer of any Halo game. A few of them eventually figured it out, but some just refused to even try it.
ProvenDeadly
Member
It's better than Halo 4 but it's no where near any of the Bungie games.
AtomicShroom
Member
No kidding! MS's ultimate wet dream is to have gamers pay to play online on PC the same way they do on Xbox. Gamers know they had better steer clear of any MS-owned gaming service because that's what's ultimately going to be headed their way as soon as they feel they can get away with it.
Because they are complaining about it not doing what they projected it to do. If they want to maximize off that brand, I would think Minecraft 2 would be the ideal goal here, no? That is how you would maximize profits.
The reason its not hitting their projections is because everyone and their mom already has a copy of this game in some fashion. The biggest way they make their money off of minecraft is through licensing deals and other things like toys and tshirts.
I just think its odd that you go buy that IP and do nothing but port it to every single device known to man and expect it to somehow hit your wild projections.
Welfare
Member
If we start there, that is +30 million sales.
Also, Minecraft officially became a part of MS in early November 2014.
360 sales in 2008 were not that strong to have somehow pushed itself ahead of the Xbox One. Your point doesn't exist because there has been no PR for any sales data in 2016 for MS to use that line again.
Primethius
Banned
Ricky Ricardo
Member
Yeah, the Windows 10 version makes a lot more sense to me.
But then again, the Windows 10 store has been a disappointment from inception, so /shrug.
We're talking about the core of Halo games, not the marketing.
Who is? What's the source of the article?
Don't you think if it was under-performing they would create a sequel?
If they want to maximize of the brand they can't release a Minecraft while it's still selling gangbusters, that's thinking short term which isn't exactly a smart thing to do.
They should release spinoff's instead and wait for Minecraft to slow down before coming out with 2. Announcing Minecraft 2 will hurt Minecraft sales, announcing Minecraft Kart/story mode/fighter/insert spinoff here won't.
The problem is not consoles but making studios make games they don't want to make or have no expertise making.
If you go to a traditionally single player studio and want them to compete with LoL you have to be ready for them to have a bunch of setbacks and learning pains.
Phil Harrison wanted too much out of them. He should've just hired people that are in that space instead of forcing their studios to do what they weren't there to do.
Everything can make money if done right and by the right people.
Obliterator
Member
Yeah the only way I can see this being remotely accurate is if he's claiming its the W10 version thats under performing
Primethius
Banned
Right, but it also ties into the ROTR news we got. Because as everyone rightfully pointed out, sales for MC overall being dissapointing doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
I'm sorry. I meant the gameplay on today's time. Not Halo 3 just coming out in 2015
Collateral22
Member
Halo 3 was the pinnacle of Halo though. Reach and ODST were on the same level then Halo 4 was trash, and well, you know how MCC went. Halo 5 isn't a good Halo game so not surprising it isn't living up to expectations.
Nightengale
Member
Halo 3 marketing is something that is difficult to replicate. It's as much the corporate mastery of marketing as well as the audience's reaction to it.
Closest thing I've seen to H3-tier marketing this gen is still the lead-up to Titanfall. It's a smaller scale, but the pre-launch frenzy that game generates is insane to look back at in hindsight .
Where's the rumor here? More like SHOCKING NEWS, we know for a fact that all of them (except for Minecraft) hugely underperformed.
I even remember that sometimes before W10 launch MS publicly said they wanted it to be installed on 1 billion devices within two years: there's a reason why they're sticking W10 down everyone's throat without users' consent for months now, lol.
I even remember that sometimes before W10 launch MS publicly said they wanted it to be installed on 1 billion devices within two years: there's a reason why they're sticking W10 down everyone's throat without users' consent for months now, lol.
So what doesn't add up here? Halo 5 underperforming adds up. Minecraft doesn't. Xbox consoles doesn't. Windows 10 installations doesn't. Is the source just an ex-Lionhead employee?
When were the 40 million units projected for Xbox consoles? Was this before the 2013 reveal of the console?
Did they honestly expect Windows 10 installations to be at 600-700 million by now? Isn't it the fastest OS adoption already?
And then Minecraft underperforming.
When were the 40 million units projected for Xbox consoles? Was this before the 2013 reveal of the console?
Did they honestly expect Windows 10 installations to be at 600-700 million by now? Isn't it the fastest OS adoption already?
And then Minecraft underperforming.
Primethius
Banned
Yea, that's very different and not something I'll argue against. Halo 3 marketing was something else.
ethomaz
Banned
Now we just need to know how many copies MS expected to sell.
While it is amazing numbers it could be underperformed if MS predicted/expected 50m sales for example.
I think it is like the Windows 10 case... they probably won't reach 1b in 2017 (even giving free copies to everybody) when they are only at 200 million right now... it is underperforming even when the number is huge.
xabbott
Member
Minecraft has been in the top 20 or so in the Windows app store for awhile. I think it's free if you have the java version. With that said I believe the PC version was always one of the lower selling versions anyway.
In any case they apparently broke even on Minecraft last year. They also seem really into using it for Education and demos for stuff like Hololens. I would imagine they are happy with the acquisition.
Dont you think Minecraft 2's sales would be so grand that it would surpass any sales that Minecraft 1 is projected to do?
I would imagine a sequel to the best selling game of all time would quadruple the projected sales of MC1 in its current state.
I understand wanting to wait it out and get every last cent you can from it, but at some point, if they really feel they arent hitting their projected numbers, there is only 1 solution and thats to make the sequel.
RespectThySole
Member
Minecraft a miss? What? Their expectations must've been ludicrous.
That's the only thing I can think of. They advertise the free version on Windows 10 tho. I see the free beta ads more then the pay version.
Obliterator
Member
I mean true but if they expected over 30 million units in their FY I'm not sure what to even say. The game came out in 2011 and there are only so many gamers in the world. 106 million install is pure madness.
Maybe they did expect more but if so they are out of their minds
30yearsofhurt
Member
So what expectations would you place on the returns for a Software property?
Lets assume Microsoft wanted a return on equity of 20%. That would be $500m a year.
Which they should more than get on sales of ~35m units.
Problem is software has a usable lifespan that is inherently more risky.
Oilwells will produce oil for 20+ years. Real estate will continue providing returns for longer and add capital growth on top.
Software (and games especially) can go from flavour of the month to yesterday's news pretty quick so you would want more return than that to amortise your capital outlay.
So it may be pulling in $500M-$700M a year but MS may be needing it to pull in more than that simply because it could become worthless pretty quick.
Lets assume Microsoft wanted a return on equity of 20%. That would be $500m a year.
Which they should more than get on sales of ~35m units.
Problem is software has a usable lifespan that is inherently more risky.
Oilwells will produce oil for 20+ years. Real estate will continue providing returns for longer and add capital growth on top.
Software (and games especially) can go from flavour of the month to yesterday's news pretty quick so you would want more return than that to amortise your capital outlay.
So it may be pulling in $500M-$700M a year but MS may be needing it to pull in more than that simply because it could become worthless pretty quick.
I can think of a few way that Minecraft has been a miss for MS, I could've sworn there was a thread (if someone can find it I'm on mobile) that MS bought Mojang and Minecraft because it was a smart business decision for its Mobile side Mainly because the lack lack of developer apps on the win phone and they figured it would sell more Windows phones in general, however the win Phones just fell under .7% market share and not only that I'm guessing they felt it would sell more Xbox ones systems or bring more MAU into fold? The last bit is just MY personal Speculation
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1222807&highlight=windows+phone Thread on Windows phone
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1222807&highlight=windows+phone Thread on Windows phone
michaelius
Banned
People ridiculing article for Minecraft need to do some math.
Even if each copy sold was worth 20$ to Microsoft (which we can safely guess it isn't) it would be 1 bilion $ in sales which isn't even half of what they paid.
Even if each copy sold was worth 20$ to Microsoft (which we can safely guess it isn't) it would be 1 bilion $ in sales which isn't even half of what they paid.
Even still I see the console as more of a part of bad sales. The console itself is not as desirable as the 360 was. Say if Halo 5 released on PS4 i feel as if it would have emulated halo 3 success if not better.
styl3s
Member
But what can you do with Minecraft that hasn't already been done? Minecraft 2 would be a massive mistake.
In Service
Member
Got to be. My anecdotal evidence is that my kids made me buy almost every pack available on XBO Minecraft
SenseiAsad
Member
I love Halo 5's MP, but it's gonna have a much narrower fanbase than other FPS' just because of it's difficulty. I think one of the bigger issues is that, despite being Microsoft's premier studio, 343 really doesn't inspire any confidence.
They just ripped off CoD mechanics for Halo 4, and MCC was straight up broken, and still is. Where's Frank O Connor with that explanation of why it launched as it did that he promised? They launched Halo Waypoint, which had a bit of life, then replaced it with The Halo Channel, which basically died immediately, never mind because it lacked content, it performed horribly on XB1. Why did a video streaming service stutter and lag so much? Forward unto Dawn was decent, and Nightfall was abysmal, and what happened to that Spielberg TV show? The most recent offense being Halo 5's boring story, especially compared to what the marketing and Hunt the Truth were doing, how come we didn't get that in the game? Instead, the big thing for campaign was 4 player coop and some of the most basic AI commands seen in any video game.
I think all of this stems from the fact that 343 doesn't really have much in the way of creativity or innovation. Bungie pushed brand new features, and we've not actually seen anything "new" in Halo since they left. Look at Doom's Snapmap versus the current state of Forge in Halo 5. Sure Tom French and the Forge team are doing amazing work putting in new features with every update, but then they're hindered by the lack of a custom games playlist in matchmaking and a decent way of finding the content people are making. Even Halo 3 had the "Bungie Favourites" bit.
It hurts to say it, because I really like Halo, especially Halo 5, but even when you look at the DLC plan for Halo 5 being old features from previous games, I can't say 343 is a studio I trust. In all honesty, I only really enjoy the Arena multiplayer, and I'm inclined to say it seems to have come together as more of an accident than any skill or direction.
On top of that, the Xbox One's position is probably hurting all its exclusives, so they have less and less money to play with.
VincentMatts
Member
Yeah something doesnt add up. xbox is outperforming 360 which did amazing in the end but is underperforming? Minecraft is selling in the top 10 for ages now, underperforming? Everyone i know has win10 installed, underperforming?
Id love to know what the actual expectations were.
Not going to happen. Been saying this for how many years now?
Obliterator
Member
Again......MS did not expect Minecraft to generate 2.5 billion in revenue for a very very long time. They wanted it to hit break even on a GAAP basis by FY 2015 which it more than has
Even if your math is correct that's still massive. It's not like sales are slowing down.
But you can't just look at it from MC2 perspective. When you announce MC2 you cut into MC1 sales, yes they will sell millions of Mc2 a few month later when it comes out, but it will sell millions regardless of when it releases, the only difference is you just slashed the sales of MC1 for no reason and you brought the sales of MC2 forward, even though they would have happened anyway.
ethomaz
Banned
Xbone is doing lower than 360 (relative at the same period/month) even in NPD this year... shipment was close at the end of 2015 (even using some optimist estimations for Xbone).
I'm confident 360's shipment is catching Xbone's shipment this year.
Let't see how it will works until the end of 2016 but MS indeed stopped to say they are ahead 360 when in 2015 they said a lot of times in NPD monthly PR without any sales data or Financial Earnings.
So Harrison is to blame for Fable Legends?
Also, Legends was a crappy F2P game. Wouldn't have mattered what size the userbase was. MS probably noticed that from the beta numbers.
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