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[David H Wong]

I think the problem is that people were vague about their high praise of it. Stuff like, "this is where everything is going!" and "this is definitely going to be the future!" don't really define what that means. Is that 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? 100 years? And so we have a lot of people yelling loudly about how amazing this is going to be and how it's the future without really defining what they mean by it. Since many people don't define it, other people can wrongly interpret what they're implying by success.

I also hate the notion that people are treating this as a first generation iteration when we've had several generations of this already. VR has been tried a few times before and it's flopped, gone out of the spotlight, evolved and come back for another attempt again. Personally, I think this attempt/iteration is going to result in the same thing; it's not going to become mainstream at this phase. It's going to evolve the tech, most people will get over it after a brief period and then it'll be gone for the spotlight again from the mainstream until maybe the next real try will be the real deal. Some day VR has a possibility of being a mainstream device, or maybe it won't. It just won't be this generation/phase/iteration/attempt at it and that includes the next few iterations of Vive, Oculus, PSVR, etc.

I'm trying to picture what the mass market version of this tech would look like, and I swear it's several generations away. Remember: audiences didn't even want to wear a pair of sunglasses so they could see 3D TV. Even that was too obnoxious to do for hours, or with friends/family on the sofa.

It seems like the limitation of VR that's been there since the beginning - that it's something that's mind-blowing for an hour but annoying to do for any longer - is still there, and will be for the foreseeable future. Every single person I've heard raving about the tech is raving about a first impression - the first moment they put it on, and were amazed. That sense of wonder fades fast.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

I think that can only be said when companies stop investing in hardware and software and VR goes away. It is the very beginning, no reasonable person expected VR to take off with the pretty high barrier of entry.

Yes, this.

The only question right now is have us early adopters done enough to cover the development of second generation VR devices, and will they be 25%-30% cheaper than today's models. If so, everything is going according to plan.

If anyone thought the goal was to sell 20 million $600+ units of gen 1 VR headsets, you didn't really understand the market or goal.

VR is expensive. Neither Vive/Oculus have failed, nor PS VR is the savior. The technology is great, and it will only get better with time. Adoption will increase as the cost of entry reduces. Market saturation does not mean that the product is dead.

well stated.

 

[johnnydrama]

VR is expensive. Neither Vive/Oculus have failed, nor PS VR is the savior. The technology is great, and it will only get better with time. Adoption will increase as the cost of entry reduces. Market saturation does not mean that the product is dead.

 

[the-pi-guy]

I'm trying to picture what the mass market version of this tech would look like, and I swear it's several generations away. Remember: audiences didn't even want to wear a pair of sunglasses so they could see 3D TV. Even that was too obnoxious to do for hours, or with friends/family on the sofa.

It seems like the limitation of VR that's been there since the beginning - that it's something that's mind-blowing for an hour but annoying to do for any longer - is still there, and will be for the foreseeable future. Every single person I've heard raving about the tech is raving about a first impression - the first moment they put it on, and were amazed. That sense of wonder fades fast.

Eh, I'm having the opposite feeling, and I know a few people who are in the same boat.
I'm still amazed by the device ~4 months later.

 

[Krejlooc]

The only question right now is have us early adopters done enough to cover the development of second generation VR devices, and will they be 25%-30% cheaper than today's models.

The OSVR HDK2 will match the specs of the Rift and Vive, but at 2/3s the cost of the rift and 1/2 the cost of the Vive.

 

[jchap]

PSVR is going to bomb as well. Its not mass market ready yet

 

[Horp]

We need better image quality, higher fov, more comfortable headset, less cables and hassle, smart solutions to movement in games, more clever ways of combating motion sickness, another generation of hardware to cope with performance needs, and some really good games. Then VR will take off.

 

[TGO]

It was obvious, expensive + PC, the market isn't there.
Next month it'll be available mainstream to gamers, then we'll know its true fate.
But like people have said "it has no killer app" hopefully VR being available for PlayStation will draw out a killer app from the big developers in the industry.

 

[120v]

i find it bizarre with google and pretty much everybody investing in VR it's somehow on the same level as 3D TV or some shit

i kind of understand where a lot of people are coming from, supposedly we were going to get rifts for $300... but still no joe six pack will have a 970 in his home PC

niche market, folks

 

[Bookoo]

Yes, this.

The only question right now is have us early adopters done enough to cover the development of second generation VR devices, and will they be 25%-30% cheaper than today's models. If so, everything is going according to plan.

Well while Oculus tends to be hated here I don't think they are going anywhere in the near future. Zuck said right around the acquisition that he is looking at where VR is in 10+ years down the road so at least that seems like a more realistic view of the future.. The social stuff they showed off at some conference was really neat. It built on the whole ToyBox demo Oculus has shown with touch.

I am interested to see what happens with HTC Vive. Valve isn't going anywhere, but HTC has been a struggling company for a while and we will see what happens. The problem I have with Valve is sort of what they do with a lot of their things. "Lets just put this thing out and see what happens". Vive just seemed rushed and is really lacking content unless you enjoy play the early access / prototypes. However Valve said like 1/3 of their company is working on VR so that could be awesome.

Next month it'll be available mainstream to gamers, then we'll know its true fate.

I expect PS VR to sell better, but even that won't be it's fate. VR is going to be a very slow burn. I imagine the most likely version of VR to grab mainstream will be a mobile device that is small, light, and untethered.

 

[aorange999]

VR is here to stay. I work in VR have seen a lot of stuff that the big companies are working on and a lot of stuff the small guys are working on. This is truly the first generation though, people forget this is the WORST IT WILL EVER BE. The game mechanics haven't been defined, the hardware interface is all over the place, there is no unified narrative for the industry and to say its where Atari is regarded in the Videogaming industry is being beyond generous.

Developers and content producers are making the first real inroads into what consumer VR even looks and acts like. I think that mobile VR will be the biggest driver since its doesn't require additional equipment purchase and mobile is moving so quickly.

5 years from now there will be very well executed VR experiences that will be in a few million of households... and THAT will be the NES moment.

 

[Croatoan]

Holy hell...

Why do peeps want vr to fail so much? (It won't)

 

[Bronetta]

VR is gonna be a lot like 3DTVs. Some companies will push it hard but it will never become widely adopted or anything more than a niche.

It doesn't matter how much the technology gets improved, the general public just cares very little about the VR experience.

 

[mario_O]

Software sales might rise again in October, VR is definitely not for the summer, wearing a hmd with this weather is the last thing I want to do when I get home.

 

[LyleLanley]

VR is gonna be a lot like 3DTVs. Some companies will push it hard but it will never become widely adopted or anything more than a niche.

It doesn't matter how much the technology gets improved, the general public just cares very little about the VR experience.

That will eventually change when there are games/experiences really worth investing in VR for. Right now the glorified tech demos and mediocre games aren't worth paying for an expensive headset and a gaming PC.

 

[120v]

It doesn't matter how much the technology gets improved, the general public just cares very little about the VR experience.

general public once cared very little about high definition, carrying around portable phones, ect. pretty absurd to assume advancements don't sway public favor

 

[AngryMoth]

VR experiencing the same chicken and egg problem motion controls had last gen where nobody wants to invest a lot of money into making big, quality games due to the high risk and low install base but the install base is never gonna get bigger without those big games

 

[Icarus]

If anyone thought the goal was to sell 20 million $600+ units of gen 1 VR headsets, you didn't really understand the market or goal.

Tell that to the hundreds of investors that have been sold exactly that vision from every Tom, Dick and Harry studio that has now set up a "VR game" dev studio... those guys expect their investments back in a timely fashion. Not 10 years from now. The "dumb money" has been throwing cash at VR content for the better part of two years now... most are expecting some sort of returns in the next two to three, which isn't likely to happen. And the real last thing they want is "if you want to see a return on your initial investment, we need more money because our last project didn't earn out".

 

[Jumeira]

Fully expecting it to flop, it's too big of an ask for users to completely disconnect from the world. I don't see anything on the horizon that will change this, VR is for the early adopters and tech enthusiast, not for the mainstream.

 

[low-G]

Holy hell...

Why do peeps want vr to fail so much? (It won't)

I think most are just calling it like they see it. Why does that threaten you?

Personally I'm just pissed that they're trying to rip off early adopters so grossly (price wise).

But I think space & putting on the helmet is going to destroy VR absolutely. Can you imagine normal people with friends, love ones, or small children trying to play VR? Because that's the real world.

 

[Sword Of Doom]

I'm personally waiting for Gen 2 or 3 VR headsets before I buy. The screen for effect and field
Of view are the two things I hope they improve.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

VR gaming will always be a niche product. It complements classic gaming, it doesn't supersede it. The question is, how big / profitable is this niche going to be.

I asume Sony did quite a lot of market research on this issue before they came to the conclusion that it's worth the effort.

Also, lol @ those calling a device which will launch next month a fad already. If Henry Ford had listened to you guys he would have tried to breed faster horses instead of building cars.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Tell that to the hundreds of investors that have been sold exactly that vision from every Tom, Dick and Harry studio that has now set up a "VR game" dev studio... those guys expect their investments back in a timely fashion. Not 10 years from now.

Yea, nobody was sold on that vision for gen 1 hardware. That's not how gen 1 hardware works for anything ever. It's cost-prohibitive.

It's like saying people expected Gen 1 DVD to sell 20 million units. It didn't. But when DVD hardware stopped costing $700 and people found a library of movies ready to watch, people jumped in. This is where something like PSVR and whatever the Xbox will have come into play, as they will be targeted at a more mass market audience with simpler products at easier to manage prices.

Anyway, I'm off to VR. You guys have fun talking about VR; I'mma go have fun in it.

The OSVR HDK2 will match the specs of the Rift and Vive, but at 2/3s the cost of the rift and 1/2 the cost of the Vive.

Excellent. I assume OSVR uses OpenVR too which means we'll have great competition going forward in addition to improving tech. Great stuff.

 

[Marty Chinn]

Holy hell...

Why do peeps want vr to fail so much? (It won't)

I don't mean to single you out, but it's posts like these that causes such a stance. It's this notion and declaration by some people that it's definitely going to happen. It's definitely the future. There's no possibilty where this doesn't happen.

 

[Metal B]

It doesn't matter how much the technology gets improved, the general public just cares very little about the VR experience.

Everybody i showed my Vive to was amassed. The problem isn't VR, it's the early, expensive tech and inexperience, simple software. It need times to grow and nobody was expecting anything else except strawmans from VR doubters.

 

[TSM]

VR is desperately in need of a killer app. Preferably multiple killer apps. The Wow factor is only going to carry it so far. I've looked at VR a couple times, but the software to get me on board just doesn't exist yet.

 

[bj00rn_]

it's not going to become mainstream at this phase

In other news: Scuba diving is a failure.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

And so no one with an ounce of common sense was surprised.

 

[CountAntonius]

They should have stuck to that 300 dollar price point they were aiming for. It might not have been the greatest experience but it would have given many more people a taste.

 

[MarineMountie]

Waiting on PSVR.

Better price point
Can't wait to play Resident Evil VII with it!

I have a more than capable rig to use Oculus or Vive. Just not paying what they are asking for.

 

[Zalusithix]

Tell that to the hundreds of investors that have been sold exactly that vision from every Tom, Dick and Harry studio that has now set up a "VR game" dev studio... those guys expect their investments back in a timely fashion. Not 10 years from now. The "dumb money" has been throwing cash at VR content for the better part of two years now... most are expecting some sort of returns in the next two to three, which isn't likely to happen.

If an investor throws their money around without understanding the market, that's on them. Generally speaking, people wealthy enough to have money to spend on ideas tend to know the realities. Those that don't... well they don't stay wealthy long. Investment in VR/AR is more of a long play than a short term payoff. It's obviously not the safest investment in the world, but the potential is high.

Edit:

VR gaming will always be a niche product. It complements classic gaming, it doesn't supersede it. The question is, how big / profitable is this niche going to be.

VR has applications outside of gaming. It'll eventually be bigger than classic gaming, but only because it wont be defined by that market. Frankly, VR could go bust in gaming all together, and its future wouldn't be doomed.

 

[GuitarAtomik]

I'm trying to picture what the mass market version of this tech would look like, and I swear it's several generations away.

It's phone vr.

Remember: audiences didn't even want to wear a pair of sunglasses so they could see 3D TV. Even that was too obnoxious to do for hours, or with friends/family on the sofa.

Taking the wrong lesson from 3D. It wasn't so much about the glasses as much as it was that the experience didn't add enough to justify it.

It seems like the limitation of VR that's been there since the beginning - that it's something that's mind-blowing for an hour but annoying to do for any longer - is still there, and will be for the foreseeable future. Every single person I've heard raving about the tech is raving about a first impression - the first moment they put it on, and were amazed. That sense of wonder fades fast.

Well as an early adopter let me break that streak for you. I've had multiple wow moments over the past few months. Hell, last one was just last week.

 

[Marty Chinn]

In other news: Scuba diving is a failure.

Did you even read my whole post before replying? By phase, I don't mean this first batch of Vive, Oculus and PSVR. This phase means including near future revisions. The phase ends when the hype dies down, most people stop caring, and it goes out of the spotlight for awhile. Just like this isn't the first phase of VR and it has come and gone before. The tech will still evolve, but this attempt at it will not bring it mainstream. I think there are other barriers that needs to be solve besides cost before it really hits mainstream and those aren't going to be solved in just a few generations of Oculus, Vive and PSVR.

 

[TSM]

It's like saying people expected Gen 1 DVD to sell 20 million units. It didn't. But when DVD hardware stopped costing $700 and people found a library of movies ready to watch, people jumped in. This is where something like PSVR and whatever the Xbox will have come into play, as they will be targeted at a more mass market audience with simpler products at easier to manage prices

This DVD analogy is badly off point. DVD was going to succeed because there was not only the entire history of movies and television to put out there, but also every new Blockbuster and hit TV show. Killer apps were available and guaranteed to come out on a regular basis.

VR has nothing like this. VR doesn't have the entire game industry's output to rely upon like DVD did with movies and TV. Instead it has a tiny segment of creators making low budget projects for it. The AAA space is far too risk adverse to have anything to do with a big budget VR game, and that's really VR's achilles heel right now.

 

[ZoddGutts]

Waiting for a port of DOA VR and Summer Lesson for PC VR to be worth getting.

 

[Steel]

A lot of people were expecting it to rapidly grow like the Wii. I never expected anything like that, but I also didn't expect growth to completely stall just a few months after they were finally released.

No one was saying that. In fact, people were saying that it was going to be slow going at first till the price comes down. The price has not come down.

 

[DavidDesu]

VR is here to stay. I work in VR have seen a lot of stuff that the big companies are working on and a lot of stuff the small guys are working on. This is truly the first generation though, people forget this is the WORST IT WILL EVER BE. The game mechanics haven't been defined, the hardware interface is all over the place, there is no unified narrative for the industry and to say its where Atari is regarded in the Videogaming industry is being beyond generous.

Developers and content producers are making the first real inroads into what consumer VR even looks and acts like. I think that mobile VR will be the biggest driver since its doesn't require additional equipment purchase and mobile is moving so quickly.

5 years from now there will be very well executed VR experiences that will be in a few million of households... and THAT will be the NES moment.

Yeah exactly this is like the invention of the camera. Film makers only copied stage plays and just filmed it, they didn't have any of the rules of cinema yet. It took decades for real artistry to come to the fore and creative uses rather than just staging static plays from one or two camera angles. Gaming in VR is definitely at that stage where we're trying to crowbar in conventional games into the medium, with more failure than success. Whole new styles of games and new genres will come about but we need time. Most devs haven't released their first full fledged title yet and people are expecting them to have perfect VR game made in one iteration.

 

[lowhighkang_LHK]

It was obvious, expensive + PC, the market isn't there.
Next month it'll be available mainstream to gamers, then we'll know its true fate.
But like people have said "it has no killer app" hopefully VR being available for PlayStation will draw out a killer app from the big developers in the industry.

I think Sony is talking the right steps thus far. They are associating VR with many popular games and franchises people know and like.

DriveClub
Final Fantasy
Batman
Tomb Raider
Star Wars
Resident Evil
Gran Turismo
Until Dawn

and others that escape me right now.

Not all of those games have full campaign VR feature sets, but to say that these titles/franchises have VR capabilities gives it some substance. Outside of, yeah - indies putting together tech demo's.

 

[Akoi]

I love the concept of VR, I even played the serious Sam 3 VR at pax the other day and I really enjoyed it.

My biggest beef with VR is for it to feel really seemless they need to make a natural way for walking in games that works as well as a controller or mouse and keyboard, which I honestly see that as a huge barrier since the majority of games have the character standing still or sitting down.

All that and VR still needs it's killer app like star citizen or something.

 

[mattiewheels]

I'm surprised how the sentiment around here seems to be that PSVR is really going to take off. It just seems so hobbled by the low specs to be anything but a really specific device that won't have the same experiences the PC driven sets will eventually have. If Sony can crank out magic then god bless em, but their first party output the past few years has made me skeptical.

 

[Briarios]

VR is gonna be a lot like 3DTVs. Some companies will push it hard but it will never become widely adopted or anything more than a niche.

It doesn't matter how much the technology gets improved, the general public just cares very little about the VR experience.

1876: “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.” — William Orton, President of Western Union.

1903: “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad.” — President of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.

1921: “The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?”

1946: “Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” — Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox.

2005: “There’s just not that many videos I want to watch.” — Steve Chen, CTO and co-founder of YouTube expressing concerns about his company’s long term viability.

2006: “Everyone’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone. My answer is, ‘Probably never.’” — David Pogue, The New York Times.

2007: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.” — Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO.

All I'm saying is, be careful when making technology predictions ...

 

[Complistic]

It just needs a couple games that everyone has to play and a second generation hardware refinement. It'll happen.

 

[awcarew]

Not surprised. Oculus Touch hasn't shipped yet and the HTC Vive doesn't really have a "killer app" outside of maybe Onward.

That being said, most of the "problems" with VR are related to the Oculus and Vive's short-term application launch and have nothing to do with VR as an actual platform. Alien: Isolation VR on my Oculus DK2 still remains one of the best gaming experiences of my entire life. It convinced me VR is the future, it's just a shame nobody outside of DK2 owners ever got to actually play it.

 

[Zalusithix]

Well as an early adopter let me break that streak for you. I've had multiple wow moments over the past few months. Hell, last one was just last week.

I put my Vive on for the first time in nearly a month the other day. Still was as fun as it was the first day, and still offered an experience that traditional gaming simply can't. I'll admit there wasn't a sense of wonder, but that's because I knew what I was getting into - both VR wise and game wise. Not that it matters. I mean, how often does a traditional gaming experience impart that feeling? Damn near never these days. Doesn't impact the enjoyment I can get out of traditional games though.

If the "wow" feeling was critical to VR's success in gaming, then it would be a fad. You can't deliver awe on a consistent basis. You can deliver fun, entertaining experiences.

(And if anybody is going to make an assumption from my not using it for that long - don't. I didn't game at all in that time frame. Classic or otherwise. I have enough interests that not partaking in one for a bit isn't indicative of anything.)

 

[arevin01]

This first gen of consumer VR is horrendously expensive, but that's kinda expected. I'll wait for 3rd/4th gen devices before even considering one. By then we'll have wireless/standalone, high resolution displays, better eye comfort (light field displays) and improved usability.

Assuming VR even makes it to 3rd-4th gen. They likely haven't even come close to recouping the costs.

 

[LyleLanley]

Assuming VR even makes it to 3rd-4th gen. They likely haven't even come close to recouping the costs.

At some point some company is going to get it right even if the current iteration of VR fails.

 

[GuitarAtomik]

I put my Vive on for the first time in nearly a month the other day. Still was as fun as it was the first day, and still offered an experience that traditional gaming simply can't. I'll admit there wasn't a sense of wonder, but that's because I knew what I was getting into - both VR wise and game wise. Not that it matters. I mean, how often does a traditional gaming experience impart that feeling? Damn near never these days. Doesn't impact the enjoyment I can get out of traditional games though.

If the "wow" feeling was critical to VR's success in gaming, then it would be a fad. You can't deliver awe on a consistent basis. You can deliver fun, entertaining experiences.

(And if anybody is going to make an assumption from my not using it for that long - don't. I didn't game at all in that time frame. Classic or otherwise. I have enough interests that not partaking in one for a bit isn't indicative of anything.)

Very true. All it has to do is continue being entertaining and provide me with experiences that I can't get in any other medium. And it's doing both of those pretty well so far.

 

[Steel]

Assuming VR even makes it to 3rd-4th gen. They likely haven't even come close to recouping the costs.

They weren't expecting to yet.

 

[Tagyhag]

Assuming VR even makes it to 3rd-4th gen. They likely haven't even come close to recouping the costs.

I doubt Valve and Facebook are hurting for money.

HTC sure is, but Valve can always go to another manufacturer if it comes to that.

Trust me, these companies didn't think they'd be making a profit in the first generation.

Look at Microsoft and the Xbox, it's called playing the long game.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Assuming VR even makes it to 3rd-4th gen. They likely haven't even come close to recouping the costs.

VR isn't going to go away. These products might not survive, but we're only beginning to scratch the surface of what VR can do.

Presumably, the OR and Vive will go through price drops over the next couple of years, whilst how much power you can buy to render VR scenes well will increase over those two years. There'll be a point where a price/value proposition lines up for the PC enough to make people buy in on that platform more heavily, and that's when you get mass adoption. The OR will exist for people with not much space, and the Vive will exist for people with enough space for the superior room-scale experience.

Before that you get the PSVR headset, which will get PS4 gamers on board for the first time. If the PSVR headset is good enough, that will almost certainly be the launching point for wide scale adoption.

But also, what is really, really needed is the Doom/Myst of VR.