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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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I have a feeling Trump could do pretty well on Sunday. The format gives him a opportunity to be personable and charismatic, areas he admittedly holds an edge over Clinton. Whether he seizes that opportunity is an open question, but I don't expect him to be as easily rattled as last time. Hope I'm wrong!
I think your post can attributed more to Clinton than Trump. We already had a town hall and he did not do well with some of the audience members.

On top of that, this debate format is the hardest to prep for. I don't see him doing well here, even with tempered expectations. I am much more confident Clinton wins Sunday than I was of her winning last week. This is her best chance of coming off as caring and trustworthy.
 

greatgeek

Banned
A mother who lost her son to a trigger happy cop

Someone who is disabled

A Muslim immigrant

A daughter of an illegal immigrant

How does Trump respond?
"I love the [blacks/disableds/Mooslims/Hispanics]. I have alot of support from [said group]. The media lie about me. Crooked Hillary and the Democrats are the bigots."
 
I have a feeling Trump could do pretty well on Sunday. The format gives him a opportunity to be personable and charismatic, areas he admittedly holds an edge over Clinton. Whether he seizes that opportunity is an open question, but I don't expect him to be as easily rattled as last time. Hope I'm wrong!

What evidence do we have for this.

Literally trump has been in like 10 debates at this point?
 
I think your post can attributed more to Clinton than Trump. We already had a town hall and he did not do well with some of the audience members.

On top of that, this debate format is the hardest to prep for. I don't see him doing well here, even with tempered expectations. I am much more confident Clinton wins Sunday than I was of her winning last week. This is her best chance of coming off as caring and trustworthy.
Hillary is an ace at town halls. She's stronger in them than regular debates.
 

Pixieking

Banned
I have a feeling Trump could do pretty well on Sunday. The format gives him a opportunity to be personable and charismatic, areas he admittedly holds an edge over Clinton. Whether he seizes that opportunity is an open question, but I don't expect him to be as easily rattled as last time. Hope I'm wrong!

Clinton comes across really really well in Town Halls. They're her jam, her bread-and-butter... she eats them for breakfast. It's where she honestly shines. Trump is the political equivalent of Hulk - all in-yer-face, smug, trying to one-up everyone, and be the best in the room. He's a loud-mouthed drunk-type, and no-one likes them being all up-in-your-business.
 

Revolver

Member
Katy Tur deserves a raise.

PorktitsThompson
‏@PtitsThompson

@KatyTurNBC yeah I can't wait till we don't have to hear your biased crap either you have killed my faith in jourbalists

Katy Tur Verified account
‏@KatyTurNBC

Maybe because you think we're called jourbalists?
 
Fox News’ Jesse Watters went to New York’s Chinatown to ask people what they thought of Donald Trump and Chinese-American relations for The O’Reilly Factor.

Or at least that’s what he said he was doing. What Watters was really doing was making fun of the people he encountered with the broadest, dumbest Asian stereotypes imaginable — making it clear they were there as props for him and his viewers for what he clearly considered a hilarious joke, rather than to actually give their opinions.

"Am I supposed to bow to say hello?" Waters starts by asking two women. He accuses a street vendor of selling stolen goods. He adds subtitles to a man speaking perfectly comprehensible, if accented, English.

It does not get better from there. By the end, Watters has asked a bystander if it’s "the year of the dragon," asked another if he knows karate (which is commonly associated with Japan), tries to grind against two young women, and, satisfyingly, had his attempt to speak Chinese criticized by the last man he talked to.

Watters has a long record of creating segments for "Watters’ World" often aimed at making ordinary people look stupid. But it’s notable that this segment didn’t work — even though jokes about Asian stereotypes are one of the few racial jokes that are still deemed acceptable by TV producers, though they shouldn’t be.

O’Reilly pronounces himself impressed that Asian people who live in the US could answer basic questions about the presidential election. "It seemed like everyone was aware of what’s going on," he says, even though "some people say it’s very insulated and they don’t interact with American politics."

Fox News has got some hardcore racism going on.

http://www.vox.com/2016/10/4/13169256/fox-news-watters-world-chinatown
 
I'm just glad we've got Anderson Cooper this time, and also the fact that it's taking place in my backyard in STL :)

THe one problem (not really a problem) is that they are not going to go easy on Clinton at all in this town hall. I know she will be prepared, but sometimes she can fumble a difficult question and not recover from it until the topic is over. However, they will also rip into Trump who can't answer anything and if he starts arguing with the moderators he will automatically lose
 
What evidence do we have for this.

Literally trump has been in like 10 debates at this point?
This is what gets me. Bedwetting based off evidence is fine. Bedwetting for no clear apparent reason, even when history is on your side, is ridiculous. We need a new term for this.
 
Obviously Hillary walks into the town hall with a huge advantage, but there is a part of me that wonders how much leeway the media would give Trump if he showed the smallest signs of self deprecation, humility, and self awareness. Not that I actually worry about him doing that, but I bet the media would totally fall for it if he were capable of such things.
 

Holmes

Member
Fairleigh Dickinson University poll (A pollster on 538):


Clinton 45%
Trump 36%
Johnson 11%
Stein 3%

H2H:
Clinton 50
Trump 40
With the report that GOP and Dem internals are showing Johnson slipping and it benefitting Clinton, I wonder if that will be reflected in public polling any time soon.

If Hillary can win the next two debates and take full advantage of her ground game, I'll feel good about my C+9 prediction. Ohio and Iowa are more Republican than the national average, Florida becomes a bit more Democratic than in 2012 (it becoming even would be a big deal).
 

Nordicus

Member
A voter is going to ask him a question he doesn't like. Maybe the voter will make an accusation he doesn't agree with. "Why did you support the Iraq war" for example. He fought Holt over that one.
Trump: "I did it because of your stupid ugly fat face!"

*Pence rushes to grab the mic*

Pence: "He never said that, he never said that"
 
Obviously Hillary walks into the town hall with a huge advantage, but there is a part of me that wonders how much leeway the media would give Trump if he showed the smallest signs of self deprecation, humility, and self awareness. Not that I actually worry about him doing that, but I bet the media would totally fall for it if he were capable of such things.
Has Trump ever shown any hint of humility in past. Did he ever back down from arguing with the dad of a fallen marine.
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
I have a feeling Trump could do pretty well on Sunday. The format gives him a opportunity to be personable and charismatic, areas he admittedly holds an edge over Clinton. Whether he seizes that opportunity is an open question, but I don't expect him to be as easily rattled as last time. Hope I'm wrong!

You drunk fam?
 
I'm glad Clinton is still prepping hard for this upcoming debate and not getting complacent. All she needs is a solid showing and explain her position. It's well established by now that Trump is human poison--I don't think there would be anything that will change that.
 
Has Trump ever shown any hint of humility in past. Did he ever back down from arguing with the dad of a fallen marine.
No, of course not. I'm really just more annoyed by how easily I imagine the media would fall for such a thing. They've set the bar so low for him in terms of basic humanity.
 
SurveyUSA New Mexico

Clinton 46
Trump 33
Johnson 14

But omg you guys Johnson will totally win NM and deadlock the electoral college producing a Johnson victory from the House, LIBERALS IN DENIAL
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage

HylianTom

Banned
Really glad to see Obama out in front of this storm.

And I'm not the least bit worried about Sunday. Off-script Trump is too, too.. himself to not give us a few gems over the course of 90 minutes. He's too easily triggered/baited - especially when it comes to the unflappable Hillary Clinton.
 
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/10/05/trumps-october-surprise-it-could-be-his-2015-tax-return/

Clinton's got to be prepared for this

Trump can pretty much pretty up his taxes release them then after the fact change them back.
She should. But I think Trump will not release them. Romney was able to fudge his rate because he contributed $4 million to charities, and he was only able to hike it up by a couple of percentage points. Trump doesn't contribute to any charities, from where the biggest deduction to come. If he's using real estate loopholes to bring his number down, it will be apparent to everyone. And on a final note, I dont think Trump is willing to take a big hit in his returns.
 
Really glad to see Obama out in front of this storm.

And I'm not the least bit worried about Sunday. Off-script Trump is too, too.. himself to not give us a few gems over the course of 90 minutes. He's too easily triggered/baited - especially when it comes to the unflappable Hillary Clinton.

The Obama administration disaster management (at least in the immediate vicinity of the event) has been impeccable.
 

Bowdz

Member
I hope Clinton really promotes her agenda at the second debate. If she can come across personable (like she has at many townhalls) and really promote her positive agenda while occasionally leaving some bait fro Trump to stumble on, I think it'd be a perfect performance.
 
You really have to start asking yourself "does this change votes or enthusiasm" for any event because that list is pretty narrow now.

A "clean" tax return from Trump would not change any votes, might assuage a few very very wobbly Trump leaners.
 

pigeon

Banned
Hot take of the day: the terrifying developments in the UK, and the complete haplessness of Jeremy Corbyn in stopping them, should be a warning to all those who wanted to nominate Bernie Sanders.
 
You really have to start asking yourself "does this change votes or enthusiasm" for any event because that list is pretty narrow now.

A "clean" tax return from Trump would not change any votes, might assuage a few very very wobbly Trump leaners.

Not just that; people are voting now. A major event on October 31st has a lot smaller effect than something now
 

Footage of Jesse Watters' apology:

363345.gif
 

Bowdz

Member
SurveyUSA New Mexico

Clinton 46
Trump 33
Johnson 14

But omg you guys Johnson will totally win NM and deadlock the electoral college producing a Johnson victory from the House, LIBERALS IN DENIAL

As I said on Sunday, as a New Mexican, there is no scenario where Clinton loses New Mexico.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
My God....

Watching MSNBC, Kaine is looking REALLY good in these bite sized clips.
It's like the corkboard scene in The Usual Suspects. You thought you saw a big mess, but when you step back and look at it, it all makes sense.
 
He said that?
Not exactly, I'm just complaining about guys eating crackers.

He did suggest the possibility on Twitter after a poll came out showing Johnson at 24%, but in an article he admitted the odds of that happening (Johnson winning NM's 5 EVs and throwing it to the House) were astronomically low.
 
So QPac has Toomey 50, McGinty 48. The last 3 polls have been McGinty +6, Tied, Toomey +8. Someone is wrong.

Also Rubio up by 4 and Burr and Ross tied at 46, though they put Ross first so she might be marginally ahead but with rounding.
 

Grief.exe

Member
Well, if everything turns horribly wrong, the map could end up looking something like that :

1lr70.png


Bad Nate's wet dream

I don't see how Ohio could be blue, but Virginia/CO/FL are red.

If anything, considering current demographics and electoral shifts, this map shows the implausibility of a Trump win.

So QPac has Toomey 50, McGinty 48. The last 3 polls have been McGinty +6, Tied, Toomey +8. Someone is wrong.

Probably more difficult to poll since people have less knowledge of a senate candidate than their Presidential candidates.

I can't see a reality where Hillary takes PA, yet McGinty loses the Senate race. People don't vote across the ballot anymore.
 

Holmes

Member
What evidence do we have for this.

Literally trump has been in like 10 debates at this point?
Yeah. Clinton was better at the primary town halls than regular debates. Sanders was better at the town halls too. Of the town halls Trump's been in, there hasn't been an improvement.
 

OmniOne

Member
So QPac has Toomey 50, McGinty 48. The last 3 polls have been McGinty +6, Tied, Toomey +8. Someone is wrong.

Also Rubio up by 4 and Burr and Ross tied at 46, though they put Ross first so she might be marginally ahead but with rounding.

I'm not sure there are many Clinton/Toomey voters here? I don't see Toomey surviving the Philadelphia turnout machine.
 
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