-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
The NX Prediction / BSpeculation / Fanxiety Thread
- Thread starter sphinx
- Start date
- Status
Not to mention, Wednesday in Japan is middle of the night for America, and Thursday morning in Japan is Wednesday evening for America.
But seriously i always wonder, and we'll know at some point i guess.
That endless ballet of rumored reveal dates. Was it Internet being crazy and bullshiting himself, OR was it actually Nintendo changing plans many times for some reasons (NX problems obviously)
Afro Thunder
Member
Superb!
Excellent point. I do hope for a blowout, don't get me wrong. Just trying to temper my expectations a bit.
Skittzo0413
Member
Based on the way other companies do it, absolutely. I don't really know the real effects of doing so, and I'd bet it's something that's quite hard to quantify, but at the very least you'll have people saying "well, Nintendo just dropped this on us with little to no fanfare, they're clearly not confident about this product."
A reveal is just in a much better position when people have more time to prepare to watch it, as well as being in the beginning of a week rather than the end.
Okami Haundo
Member
It could also just be overheard conversations. I'm sure that most people who have a hand in the NX don't know all of the details about the reveal. Nintendo is a fairly large company and it's entirely possible for "potential" dates to get thrown around left and right. Considering one date before choosing another doesn't always have to mean that something bad happened.
I just want to remid you that Serkan Toto said to take with a "big grain of salt" the part where he said he was told that the NX wasn't going to be revealed this year. He even adds himself that he could be wrong about that particular point.
On the other hand, you have Emily Rogers who's completely adamant that some news of some sort about the NX will be shared this week. Such confidence can only make me think that something is bound to happen this week.
On the other hand, you have Emily Rogers who's completely adamant that some news of some sort about the NX will be shared this week. Such confidence can only make me think that something is bound to happen this week.
megashock5
Member
I have no guess on price, but for me this puts it in "jump in right away" territory, where $300 or more is a wait-and-see situation.
I'm okay with a less powerful machine if the price reflects it, especially for a second console mainly for Nintendo titles.
TheOnlyOneHeEverFeared
Member
Just think in a week or so, this will finally be over.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Rumors over the past year or two have been Nintendo wants a pricepoint for thr mass market. MCV said they heard something shockingly low. Will be interesting.
casey_contra
Member
Then on to the Nintendoomed phase - my favorite!
Already Torn
Banned
A week? You mean 24 hours!
No, it'll only have just begun.
After seeing it, and the games, and the form factor...
People will still be speculating that Nintendo is holding off on revealing the VR/Non-Handheld/Scorpio-Tier/Secret Sauce Gimmick Thing and "just you wait you stupid hater Nintendo is coming back with something for the hardcore this won't be a Wii U 2, I swear on me mum" thing.
Skittzo0413
Member
They do though. They need to provide forecasts for Q4, and almost always provide initial forecasts for Q1 of the next FY. The NX will launch in Q4 so it will impact revenue from that quarter, and if it is delayed beyond that (I very much doubt that) then they will need to say that.
TheOnlyOneHeEverFeared
Member
I can't believe again.
May finally.
It's gonna happen, we just have to believe.
fredrancour
Member
this is just every nintendo direct hype train thread of the past generation on steroids. this sort of mania is here to stay.
Father_Brain
Banned
Well, it's not absolutely impossible that they could pull the "nothing to announce today, still on track for March, reveal date TBA" schtick again, sure.
But I don't think that would go over well with investors, and I don't think it's that plausible this close to launch. So: reveal date at realistic minimum, barring a delay.
paragonpro
Banned
Over under on nintendo saying they moved the projected release date to q4 2017 at the investors meeting?
I mean they always can say "NX launch is on schedule" without giving any details, it wouldn't be any different from other times Nintendo mentioning NX without talking about it.
Don't mind me, looks like there is a strong Emily defense force here on Gaf. it's like she never was wrong in the first place.
Emily reconfirmed the march release yesterday.
It's probably best not to bet against it.
Skittzo0413
Member
5%
Don't they need to provide initial shipment estimates in their Q4 forecast though?
Please remind me what we can say for sure she has been wrong about. Female playable character in Zelda is probably the only one I can think of.
And before you say it, ER never said the reveal would be September.
Also this:
Remember one year ago, October 2015?
We were all like "Only a few more months until very good chances of actual NX info! It'll be January for sure!"
and this thread happened http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1125479
it's been twelve months of fruitless speculation and insanity since
fanxiety is putting it lightly
We were all like "Only a few more months until very good chances of actual NX info! It'll be January for sure!"
and this thread happened http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1125479
it's been twelve months of fruitless speculation and insanity since
fanxiety is putting it lightly
I would put that as 1 in 70.
Davey Cakes
Member
It's funny how people read "news this week" and leapt immediately to "reveal this week" in their minds.
It was always more likely that we'd just get some official info, announcement, or even just acknowledgment this week with more next week to go along with the investor briefing.
It was always more likely that we'd just get some official info, announcement, or even just acknowledgment this week with more next week to go along with the investor briefing.
Father_Brain
Banned
We get it, you hate the idea of a hybrid and desperately want to believe that NX is some sort of PS4 Pro/Scorpio-killer console. Maybe instead of creepily fixating on Emily, you should ask why (besides EG), WSJ, MCV, IGN, LPVG, and a couple others have all corroborated that reporting, and why not a single actual news outlet has reported anything that at all contradicts the hybrid reports.
This is easily the worst part about this whole thing. All I want is a reveal date so we can stop this speculation nonsense.
R
Rösti
Unconfirmed Member
The absolute minimum I think would be this (which was in the consolidated financial forecast of the FY 2016 First Quarter Earnings):
Source: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2016/160727e.pdf
Nintendo doesn't seem very confident with the NX if they can't announce a reveal date
Ok, let's try to see the major possible scenarios, while having all the most relevant tweets in one place for a better comprehension of what's going on
1. Roundup of the major tweets of the past few hours
Emily Rogers
Neal Ronaghan
NateDrake (DirectFeedGames)
Daan Koopman
Serkan Toto
2. The scenarios with the highest possibilities of happening
1) Announcement of the event AND the event this week: Serkan Toto himself says his source on NX reveal NOT this week is not as good as the one for the SMR tidbits. Also (I want to highlight this is my personal opinion), Emily said that this is going to be an "important week" for NX and that "the investor meeting will answer more questions about it", which could be interpreted as the reveal being a thing this week (announced in the next 48 hours at most, otherwise it's not happening) with the investor meeting being the place where stakeholders will be informed about other aspects of the device, more pertinent to their area (initial shipment forecasts, planning on sales-related initiatives, etc.). However, I must say that statement of hers isn't cut-clear on the matter.
2) Announcement of the event this week and the event next week (again, personal opinion: probably right before the Investor Meeting): this is how Serkan Toto's tweet and Emily's recent statements would not contradict with each other. Technically, the news of when the NX is unveiled is very important, even if the event does not happen this week.
Supposedly, everything should happen before the Financial Results for Q2 FY2017 are released (before October 26th), or at the latest the day before the Investors Meeting (right on October 26th, when the results are released).
1. Roundup of the major tweets of the past few hours
Emily Rogers
Neal Ronaghan
NateDrake (DirectFeedGames)
Daan Koopman
Serkan Toto
2. The scenarios with the highest possibilities of happening
1) Announcement of the event AND the event this week: Serkan Toto himself says his source on NX reveal NOT this week is not as good as the one for the SMR tidbits. Also (I want to highlight this is my personal opinion), Emily said that this is going to be an "important week" for NX and that "the investor meeting will answer more questions about it", which could be interpreted as the reveal being a thing this week (announced in the next 48 hours at most, otherwise it's not happening) with the investor meeting being the place where stakeholders will be informed about other aspects of the device, more pertinent to their area (initial shipment forecasts, planning on sales-related initiatives, etc.). However, I must say that statement of hers isn't cut-clear on the matter.
2) Announcement of the event this week and the event next week (again, personal opinion: probably right before the Investor Meeting): this is how Serkan Toto's tweet and Emily's recent statements would not contradict with each other. Technically, the news of when the NX is unveiled is very important, even if the event does not happen this week.
Supposedly, everything should happen before the Financial Results for Q2 FY2017 are released (before October 26th), or at the latest the day before the Investors Meeting (right on October 26th, when the results are released).
It may have nothing to do with confidence. They may have every confidence in the system and are intentionally carefully choosing when to reveal it.
Tom Nook Sawyer
Member
4 of those sources almost always speak in unison, so it's seemingly more like two sources.
To be clear, I'm not doubting any of them--just clarifying the amount of evidence
You're right, I still think it will be delayed tho, but in case it's not they need financial info at least, again they don't need get into details about it.
Why do you think it will be delayed?
Well, there is a strong Emily hate force on reddit.
Seriously, you have every right to doubt Emily. I'm doubting as well. The problem is there is a whole movement which just tries everything to discredit everybody involved about hybrid rumours, and try to push their home console speculation. And that is going too far. It's when stuff turn toxic.
I can understand doubt and not believing. But choosing everything, grapping every straw to already declear somebody's claims as wrong, because an other insider says this, that is too much in my opinion.
Calm Mind
Member
Dr. Manhattan knows all.
RareFantasy64
Member
I'm starting to feel nervous about the NX. I know it's just everyone discussing rumors, but I'm worried maybe Nintendo feels they don't have the hit on their hands that they need the NX to be
He says while doing that... Yeah
Like think about it if we didn't have these great great leakz what people would expect right now is a delay announcement next week at the investor briefing. Granted that's what some expect regardless but in all honesty ever since Eurogamer reported September as the reveal month people have been counting down days.¨Also lol @ the discussion about Emily. Things don't change in this regard. It's pretty obvious she has legit sources but it's also known that her track record is not 100%. Probably best to wait for what Nintendo says if you can't handle thinking critically about what it said in the meanwhile.
Don't worry that's why they're making Mario for mobile phones.
Skittzo0413
Member
This is a good post, except there really aren't any insiders saying anything besides hybrid. SMD is not an insider anymore after his one and only source got fired. No one else who has proven to have accurate info in the past is claiming an AMD PS4Pro killer.
Nintendo actually has a very good history with launching consoles when they say they will. The last hardware delayed after it's initial launch window announcement was the N64.
Because it already missed holidays and Nintendo back history with delays
Thanks for the roundups but to me it sounds like more Twitter bullshit with non specific information.
No specifics if it's a direct, no specifics if it's just revealing the date. Just this week or next week we will here something. Well that's like the lamest prediction it's obvious we will have to hear something around the time of the Meeting that is seduced next Wednesday. Anyone can say that. That prediction is as basic as someone stating Mario will be on NX.
Thank you for compiling all of this. I just want to kindly address this part.
"which could be interpreted as the reveal being a thing this week (announced in the next 48 hours at most, otherwise it's not happening)"
There is no guarantee by any means that we will have advance notice for a reveal this week, depending on the format and extent of the reveal. If we merely receive a press release this week with a system name and confirmation of March, for example, no notice would be required. In that sense, I think it's entirely possible something could still happen this week even if we don't hear something until Friday. The extent to which NX will be unveiled this or next week is unclear, all we know is that we will have some more information on the system this or next week. If it is still coming in March, which I believe it is, then this information will at least be new information, whether or not it is a full reveal or just the first and perhaps minimal information.
That's fair, but they've been transparent about the reason for the delay, and Nintendo does have a history of releasing handhelds in Q1-Q2. It's also worth noting (as Skittzo is probably typing this very same message at this exact moment, haha) that despite Nintendo's history with delays, they have not in the past 20 years announced a release month for a system and then delayed it.
Tom Nook Sawyer
Member
I totally forget what happened in that whole SMD situation...how did we find out his source got fired again?
Leaked WAY too much information to prove reliability (Marketing numbers and advertising budget)
Skittzo0413
Member
Some people with inside knowledge have posted about it here. Allegedly Nintendo sent lawyers to SMD and threatened him with legal action if he didn't give up his source, even though SMD himself had not broken any NDAs and was likely not culpable for anything legal. But he apparently gave up his source to Nintendo who was then fired, and possibly penalized for breaking NDA.
I don't know how accurate any of that is, but some users have claimed it went down like that.
- Status