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October 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Wed., November 9th

Welfare

Member
Titanfall 2 would be lucky to not just be in the top 10 but also be above Skyrim. XBL US Most Played charts have had Skyrim in the top 10 since launch while TF2 is below Horizon 3 right now (#23).

Speaking of Forza, hope it did well this month. That has more chance being in the top 10 than TF2.
 

cakely

Member
If you're bored waiting for stuff, Patrick Walker from EEDAR breaks down the state of the VR market. Installed base estimates, revenues, top titles, usage.

Data and Insights in the VR Market at VRDC

Good stuff.

Interesting tidbits in there:

They estimate PSVR will sell from 1-2 million units in 2016.

They estimate the installed base of PC GPUs that can run Rift and Vive around a total of 5 million units.

They assume that Apple will eventually enter the market with their own VR solution.
 
Titanfall 2 would be lucky to not just be in the top 10 but also be above Skyrim. XBL US Most Played charts have had Skyrim in the top 10 since launch while TF2 is below Horizon 3 right now (#23).

Speaking of Forza, hope it did well this month. That has more chance being in the top 10 than TF2.

Skyrim will 100% be above TF2 imo. But we'll see
 

Bruno MB

Member
Since it is a list by revenue and some publishers don't share digital sales like Microsoft of Bethesda it is a bit harder to predict top 5. Also, I don't know how Mafia series performs in the US compared to UK and other European markets. But if Mafia III shipped 4.5 million copies worldwide unless most of them are sitting on shelves then it must have had a good debut in the US too. Also, it is the game with more days of tracking out of the big new releases.

If I had to guess this would be my top 5.

1. Battlefield 1
2. Mafia III
3. NBA 2K16
4. Gears of War 4
5. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition
 

blakep267

Member
I'll say
1. Battlefield 1
2. Mafia 3
3. Gears 4
4. NBA 2k17
5. Skyrim
6. WWE2k17
7. Fifa
8. Minecraft
9. Dragonball xenoverse 2
10.ROTTR
 

Welfare

Member
People are really saying TF2 is not even gonna be in the top 10?

All these games are likely to make the top 10.

Battlefield 1
Mafia 3
Gears 4
NBA 2K17
Skyrim
WWE 2K17
Madden 17
FIFA 17
Dragonball Xenoverse 2
Titanfall 2
Forza Horizon 3
Destiny
Paper Mario

3 of those are not going to make it.
 
All these games are likely to make the top 10.

Battlefield 1
Mafia 3
Gears 4
NBA 2K17
Skyrim
WWE 2K17
Madden 17
FIFA 17
Dragonball Xenoverse 2
Titanfall 2
Forza Horizon 3
Destiny
Paper Mario

3 of those are not going to make it.
Well I found one that won't.

(Also GTA will probably be top 10)
 

Elios83

Member
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...fia-3-and-gears-4-drive-us-october-game-sales


It was a big month for the AAA games business in October, as The NPD Group's latest monthly report shows new releases like Battlefield 1, Gears of War 4 and Mafia 3 pushing console software sales (digital plus physical) up 31% to $505.7 million while PC game sales were boosted 172% to $33.8 million. While hardware sales dipped 20% to $215.2 million, and accessories fell 24% to $121 million, the performance of software enabled overall industry sales to climb 6% to $875.7 million.

Microsoft already pointed out that its Xbox One was the best-selling console for October, outselling the PS4 for the fourth consecutive month, but the platform holder must have been ignoring bundles. NPD analyst Sam Naji revealed, "The PS4 Slim 500 GB Uncharted 4: A Thief's End bundle was the month's best-selling hardware across the category, accounting for 17 percent of total hardware units sold in the month."

He added, "Unit sales for the Xbox One brand of hardware grew by 8 percent compared to last October. Average pricing for the Xbox One hardware fell by 17 percent due primarily to the release of the lower-priced 500GB Xbox One S Minecraft Bundle."

It's also interesting to note that 3DS is still going strong, even with everyone's attention turning to the Switch. "The 3DS experienced its fifth straight month of year-on-year growth. Both unit sales and consumer spending for October grew 12 percent as average pricing was flat year on year. It is likely that continued consumer interest in the Pokémon franchise and Monster Hunter: Generations has driven this growth," Naji observed.

The top ten best-selling games chart is below:
http://cdn.gamer-network.net/2015/articles/1/8/6/9/3/5/2/147942280104.jpg/EG11/resize/714x-1
 

viHuGi

Banned
Uncharted 4 bundle the best selling bundle!

Also so happy for Gears of War, grew up with the series, don´t own a Xbox One but i hope the best for the franchise!
 

Welfare

Member
From Zhuge on Twitter

CxgF-M1WgAAY6g5.jpg


Completely forgot Civ would be counted here.
 
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...fia-3-and-gears-4-drive-us-october-game-sales



Microsoft already pointed out that its Xbox One was the best-selling console for October, outselling the PS4 for the fourth consecutive month, but the platform holder must have been ignoring bundles. NPD analyst Sam Naji revealed, "The PS4 Slim 500 GB Uncharted 4: A Thief's End bundle was the month's best-selling hardware across the category, accounting for 17 percent of total hardware units sold in the month."

There seems to be a ton of Xbox One S bundles with a game packed in. I'm not sure I agree with this.
 
So yeah, great month for software overall. Battlefield 1 setting a new bar. The lower pricing for Xbox One was not promotionally driven but rather bundle mix driven, and the lower priced Minecraft bundle should continue to do very well through the remainder of Q4. 3DS' recent strength is continuing, likely to get even better in November. Solid month overall.
 

Somnia

Member
It's pretty obvious he means the Uncharted 4 bundle was the best individual bundle seller, but xbox one sold the overall most consoles. That's how I read it at least.
 

Welfare

Member
It's pretty obvious he means the Uncharted 4 bundle was the best individual bundle seller, but xbox one sold the overall most consoles. That's how I read it at least.

That is right. Xbox sales are divided amongst a number of bundles, UC4 bundle is the primary SKU.
 

Somnia

Member
Gears at number 3? That's actually pretty good, I thought it would be lower. Really curious to see its sales numbers. I'm sure its down from the franchise peak by a decent amount but that looks like a good launch
 

Sterok

Member
So in the end, Star Fox was the final Wii U exclusive to chart. Not too surprising really. GTAV finally disappears to make way for a ton of new games. EA and Take 2 are just cleaning up right now.
 

Welfare

Member
Just the way he worded it "they must not have counted bundles" I figured someone would say otherwise. Guess that'll happen in the actual NPD thread not with actual salesage :)

Xbox One was the #1 selling console
PS4 has the #1 selling bundle
 

Somnia

Member
Xbox One was the #1 selling console
PS4 has the #1 selling bundle

Well ya, I hadn't read since it was posted. Just assumed someone would take it the wrong way. My fault :)

Doesn't surprise me though as we sold quite a lot of the UC4 bundle in October when I worked (only 2 Saturdays) at the retail job I help with in the winter.
 
Shouldn't be considering those huge shipment numbers Take 2 reported. I'm curious if Gears with digital would have passed Mafia for number 2, as we don't have its digital numbers tracked here, while we do for Mafia.

Yeah. I also think certain types of games would have a high % of digital sales.

Mulitplayer, etc.
 
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