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[Polygonal_Sprite]

Most parents today used to have a SNES. And Switch is SNES reborn: Bomberman, Street Fighter 2, Mario Kart or VC games: these local multiplayer focused games remind it easily.

As a dad I can't wait to play Bomberman with my girls, 4 player Tetris, or Mario Kart with the new easy mode - designed for my wife. It's a family console, focused on multiplayer, by design. I'm not sure you realize the extent of it yet.

I think parents won't be too hard to convince, when our kids ask a Switch for Mario, Splatoon, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, etc.

It's not Nintendo's priority now, with the Zelda launch.
When the time comes though - starting this holiday season with Mario, you'll notice the messaging switch, towards family gaming.

This is my thinking, they know they'll sell 5 million off the back of Zelda, Mario Kart and launch hype. Splatoon 2 will carry them through Summer then the shift will happen with bundles, Black Friday deals and the launch of Mario Odyssey.

 

[Skittzo0413]

Because GAF has a spectrum of views. Thats incorrect: its more like a lot of people on GAF think the Switch is disappointing due to several factors such as poor third party support, weak hardware, lacking online features and bad pricing.

GAF is not a single entity to lump together and shit out an average prediction. Thats disingenuity at best and denial at worst.

You're right. I more mean to say the vocal majority of GAF seems to think the Switch will do terribly. Just like the vocal majority of GAF seemed to think the Wii would do terribly.

The vocal majority of GAF is not a good predictor of success (that's not to say the Switch will succeed like the Wii did, which I really, really doubt will happen). Again, I didn't think this was a controversial statement to make.

 

[Vaga]

40 million? As in a lot more than Xbone and close to PS4 numbers in the same time period?

 

[The Main Event]

I could see it happening. The Switch isn't facing any new hardware launch from its competitors for quite a while other than the Scorpio (which is more of a refresh).

Many people opted to skip the Wii U in favor of MS and Sony's latest consoles.

 

[sixteen-bit]

would be interesting to see how accurately this shakes out through 2020

 

[SpinningBirdKick]

Nintendo are cannabalising the 3DS user base which stands at 61m+ after 5.5 years on sale.

Most of those 3DS buyers likely bought closer to the $169 price (after the emergency price cut) rather than the $249 launch price.

So 40m sales at $299 in three years looks very optimistic unless there's some hefty price cuts on the way.

 

[Oresama]

GAF is less than 1% of the potential consumers and honestly every thread's just the same 20-30 people losing their mindsover every piece of potentially bad news.

Pokemon and Monster Hunter should get it at least close to that estimate.

Agreed. I'm new to GAF and every switch thread I see the same user avatars over and over arguing the same talking points over and over.

I've seen Ninja Scooter's "Reggies a 30 year PR veteran..." posts on at least 5 different twitch threads and the same guys trying to rebuke him.

 

[zerokoolpsx]

10 million per year is very optimistic. Its going to hit closer to 25 million by 2020. It has a weak launch lineup so its not gonna pull 10 million this year unless Nintendo slashes the price quite a bit.

 

[hatchx]

Here's the thing I don't understand about people speculating on a "console-only" or "portable-only" version of the Nintendo Switch. Isn't the hybrid design the entire point of the console, so wouldn't releasing two separate SKUs work against the entire console itself? Everything from the battery life, read-only cards, smartphone app, prices of accessories, etc., were all part of sacrifices and compromises of the design. I can't imagine that Nintendo would want to throw all of that out the window.

-Buy a Switch and upgrade with the dock later
-already have a switch? Buy one for your kid because you already have the dock

These two scenarios make sense.

 

[Whompa02]

No chance in hell.

I expect a big bump in the beginning and a severe drop off after year 1

 

[odhiex]

Interesting, I could see 40 is a realistic expectation number for the Switch. Especially, if the "Switch lite" released in between now and 2020.

The question is, will it goes lower than $199 in three years?

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Interesting, I could see 40 is a realistic expectation number for the Switch. Especially, if the "Switch lite" released in between now and 2020.

The question is, will it goes lower than $199 in three years?

It'll mostly depend if they can capitalize on improved tech (Like a pascal X1 or taking advantage of cheaper manufacturing costs for a now realized console) while still making a profit on the console like they plan to.

 

[TS-08]

This is my thinking, they know they'll sell 5 million off the back of Zelda, Mario Kart and launch hype. Splatoon 2 will carry them through Summer then the shift will happen with bundles, Black Friday deals and the launch of Mario Odyssey.

I think this is why they released when they did even though a lot of things weren't ready. Their belief is that they could sustain the console for several months with what you mentioned, then can offer a more robust package in the fall and the holiday season with the online services (even with its flaws), more big name third party games (FIFA, Skyrim, etc.), more first party games with mass appeal (Mario, possibly Pokemon, maybe Smash), and then perhaps the introduction of streaming apps like Netflix. By the time they have to have much more to offer to entice the general public, they should be ready.

 

[InfiniteCombo]

Agreed. I'm new to GAF and every switch thread I see the same user avatars over and over arguing the same talking points over and over.

I've seen Ninja Scooter's "Reggies a 30 year PR veteran..." posts on at least 5 different twitch threads and the same guys trying to rebuke him.

In my anecdotal experience, the PlayStation, Xbox, and third party threads all have exponentially more user variety and activity; as opposed to Nintendo threads that have a much narrower set of participants.

In any case, I hope that Nintendo does succeed and meets (or exceeds) this prediction. At some point, I'm going to be a proud Switch owner -- a member of this 40M+ club. But before then, Nintendo has to make a couple of adjustments...

 

[NinjaCoachZ]

40 million? As in a lot more than Xbone and close to PS4 numbers in the same time period?

40 million from March 2017 to the end of 2020 is about 10 million behind what the 3DS did in the equivalent time period (February 2011 to the end of 2014).

 

[marc^o^]

40 million? As in a lot more than Xbone and close to PS4 numbers in the same time period?

At current price range there'd be no chance. But by then, be 100% sure they'll have released a mass market sku, without the dock & grip. In my house we have 3DS, I have mine and my girls have their own. There's no way Nintendo will only give parents the chance to buy the Switch SKU that includes a dock. That would mean 3 docks for me. No way. They will have a cheaper dock free version for families, when first big "kid" games are launched. And that's when numbers can start to follow handheld patterns, which lead Nintendo to dozens millions of units.

 

[nycgamer4ever]

2020? Eh, I'm not sure sure. The PS3 and Xbox 360 lasted 8, and 7 years respectively before being replaced. With mid-gen upgrades like PS4 Pro and Project Scorpio happening, I wouldn't be surprised if this gen lasts even a bit longer. I imagine it'll be *around* 2020 that we see the next generation kick off, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was closer to 2021 or 2022.

I wouldn't be surprised if they came out with something in 2019. sigh..

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

You're right. I more mean to say the vocal majority of GAF seems to think the Switch will do terribly. Just like the vocal majority of GAF seemed to think the Wii would do terribly.

The vocal majority of GAF is not a good predictor of success (that's not to say the Switch will succeed like the Wii did, which I really, really doubt will happen). Again, I didn't think this was a controversial statement to make.

Its not a controversial statement. Its a false one. Most of GAF places Switch at above WiiU/GCN and below Wii. Furthermore, GAF is a changing population, the prediction before is hardly representative of what is now.

 

[nycgamer4ever]

Most parents today used to have a SNES. And Switch is SNES reborn: Bomberman, Street Fighter 2, Mario Kart or VC games: these local multiplayer focused games remind it easily.

As a dad I can't wait to play Bomberman with my girls, 4 player Tetris, or Mario Kart with the new easy mode - designed for my wife. It's a family console, focused on multiplayer, by design. I'm not sure you realize the extent of it yet.

I think parents won't be too hard to convince, when our kids ask a Switch for Mario, Splatoon, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, etc.

It's not Nintendo's priority now, with the Zelda launch.
When the time comes though - starting this holiday season with Mario, you'll notice the messaging switch, towards family gaming.

I don't think parents will be that quick to buy these at these prices, especially for the games and accessories. I also think that there are way too many different variations and add ons it's just way too confusing.

 

[Wildstar75]

Yeah, this is not going to happen. Even if they stop production/work on 3ds, and lower the price by $100.

 

[Ombala]

Well if you consider that this will replace both 3DS and WiiU its possible.

 

[randomengine]

40 million? As in a lot more than Xbone and close to PS4 numbers in the same time period?

It has 8 player local multiplayer.
It will have monster hunter, Mario kart, splatoon and Pokémon.

We could get eight player local multiplayer call of duty

 

[Kimawolf]

I don't think parents will be that quick to buy these at these prices, especially for the games and accessories. I also think that there are way too many different variations and add ons it's just way too confusing.

The price for accessories i will give you because yeah, at first blush it seems ridiculous, and I doubt parents would care about all the tech inside. But i don't buy the confusing thing. these are adults, millennials and Gen xers, not baby boomers. They are intimately knowledgeable with technology now thanks to smart phones, laptops, computers, set top boxes etc.

 

[marc^o^]

I don't think parents will be that quick to buy these at these prices, especially for the games and accessories. I also think that there are way too many different variations and add ons it's just way too confusing.

What you wrote is precisely why they'll have a barebone SKU, with just the Switch and 2 joy-cons, for $200. With the library it will have by then, along with a Pokemon or Animal Crossing release... It will do phenomenal numbers.

 

[JusDoIt]

That's almost 900,000 Switches a month.

Almost 11 million a year.

The Wii U has sold less than 14 million consoles in 4 years.

Seems legit.

 

[marc^o^]

That's almost 900,000 Switches a month.

Almost 11 million a year.

The Wii U has sold less than 14 million consoles in 4 years.

Seems legit.

I guess you didn't read my last points, that would give ground to a discussion/debate on how they could get there. Releasing a $200 SKU in 2018 would most likely make it achieve 11 million a year. 3DS did better than that.

 

[brad-t]

That's almost 900,000 Switches a month.

Almost 11 million a year.

The Wii U has sold less than 14 million consoles in 4 years.

Seems legit.

Yeah, and the Wii sold 100 million and the Gamecube sold 22 million. No need to mention X360 Vs. XB1. Predicting success in the video game market based on historical performance is unreliable to say the least.

 

[Skittzo0413]

Its not a controversial statement. Its a false one. Most of GAF places Switch at above WiiU/GCN and below Wii. Furthermore, GAF is a changing population, the prediction before is hardly representative of what is now.

So you are saying that, if the users of the website voted on a number that the Switch would do LTD, you'd think that would be a fairly accurate prediction?

You have a lot more faith in us than I do...

 

[LordRaptor]

So you are saying that, if the users of the website voted on a number that the Switch would do LTD, you'd think that would be a fairly accurate prediction?

You have a lot more faith in us than I do...

It would probably depend on where the poll was - the GAF aggregate in sales predictions threads is pretty good

 

[marc^o^]

In the likelihood they release a "light" Switch Sku, without the dock, what would be the best way to brand it:

:: Go Switch ::

Top this.

 

[Fredrik]

Well, good luck with that.

Every single one I've talked to outside of the internet and gaming forums have no idea what so ever what Nintendo Switch is. One person asked if it was "the small Nintendo 8-bit".

Less than 2 months before launch.

 

[K.Jack]

If Nintendo abandons the 3DS quickly, I don't see how the Switch doesn't do pretty well.

Hell, an exclusive Pokemon will get it half way there. But if they are dumb enough to also put the rumored Pokemon Sun/Moon follow up out on 3DS, all bets are off.

 

[Wolfgang Jr]

Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative?

And I bet you every single one of these people buys one.

 

[DSN2K]

not happening, it wont even beat 3DS numbers....Nintendo simply dont have mind share currently or consumer trust to deliver something that substantial.

 

[Subtervotion]

Just another reminder that the prediction is through 2020, so almost 4 years to get 40 million.

Yeah, I'm just saying that a console that seemingly did everything right sold 40m in 3 years. Do you really think a console that's having this rough of a launch and seemingly making terrible mistakes this early on will have a shot at 40m in 4 years?

 

[SinCityAssassin]

not happening, it wont even beat 3DS numbers....Nintendo simply dont have mind share currently or consumer trust to deliver something that substantial.

...but 3DS numbers are still HIGHER than 40 million.

 

[Zarovitch]

What's will hurt the most the Switch are game price.

 

[Xater]

Seems a little too optimistic to me. 30 million would be my ceiling.

 

[TS-08]

Yeah, I'm just saying that a console that seemingly did everything right sold 40m in 3 years. Do you really think a console that's having this rough of a launch and seemingly making terrible mistakes this early on will have a shot at 40m in 4 years?

I was simply correcting a potential misconception because you also said "by 2020" and other people assumed the prediction was for three years. I wasn't challenging the merit of your assertion.

 

[Wolfgang Jr]

It has 8 player local multiplayer.
It will have monster hunter, Mario kart, splatoon and Pokémon.

We could get eight player local multiplayer call of duty

... Do we know if they'll be charging us to play local multiplayer...?

 

[Haines]

I can see this dropping in price quickly. The reason being it's so much different tech that there's so much wiggle room for even a couple parts to get cheaper to make.

I think it will do good this holiday season and do even better the next few when Nintendo gets aggressive.

 

[geordiemp]

It has 8 player local multiplayer.

We could get eight player local multiplayer call of duty

At those peripheral prices good luck with that taking off.

Do you think it will start getting call of duty ?

 

[ScientificPizza]

Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

they'll sell ten million on the back of pokemon alone

40 million by 2020 seems like a fair estimate

... Do we know if they'll be charging us to play local multiplayer...?

is this a serious question

 

[Captain Europe]

40 million doesn't seem so crazy, by then it will be cheaper, and it'll have multiple Pokemon games.

 

[ZOONAMI]

If it can drop to $199 within a year I think it will do better than that.

 

[cyberheater]

Well if you consider that this will replace both 3DS and WiiU its possible.

Yes because all those people who got burnt on the WiiU are clambering to buy this product.

 

[Subtervotion]

I was simply correcting a potential misconception because you also said "by 2020" and other people assumed the prediction was for three years. I wasn't challenging the merit of your assertion.

Yeah I glossed over that too. End of 2020 makes a difference. I also think if Nintendo really utilizes their extensive handheld catalog, they can pull together a lot more sales than we are thinking. When you look at Nintendo sales of the past devices, handheld have always sold very well. So it's really up to Nintendo to put the proper franchises on the Switch if they want to see handheld sales numbers, because I don't think home console numbers are going to work for them.

 

[Cidd]

Many here talking about price drop are forgetting about the Wii U.


This is Nintendo we're talking about here. unless they're in dire straits good luck getting that price drop.

 

[StereoVsn]

I guess you didn't read my last points, that would give ground to a discussion/debate on how they could get there. Releasing a $200 SKU in 2018 would most likely make it achieve 11 million a year. 3DS did better than that.

If Nintendo manages that before Holidays 2018, fixes their online offering and lowers accessory pricing, I think they can come close.

 

[120v]

Yes because all those people who got burnt on the WiiU are clambering to buy this product.

they probably are. anybody buying nintendo hardware at this point probably doesn't care much about being 'ripped off'