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May 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, June 6th

Abdiel

Member
Abdiel signal for Switch stock situation in USA.

Better stock on a weekly basis than April, but no shipment the size of the one MK8 got.

Thanks Obli. So it's a "tie" between May and April ?

Keep in mind I can't speak for the whole market. For example I don't work for the company that Abdiel does so maybe he's seen something different.

Just my take.

Allo everyone. Welcome to, as Welfare put it, the slowest period, huh? I'm not sure if I've spoken about this time of year before, but the post Holidays, and into Spring-Summer period is retail nightmare land. This is when you see us coming up with creative ways to try to bring customers into the stores, when there's unusual sales and offers being presented by corporate partners, because otherwise, you're relying on the last 2-3 months of the year to keep all these other months of barely in black or in the red to stay operating. It's why you see so many shops closing in the retail space, because the hugely skewed nature of our yearly selling period isn't sustainable, honestly. Unless we can make up for the entire year during that window of chaos, we have to hope that during this time we can shave labor hours and make enough sales to justify the staff that is available. For general staff, it's lower key, but also harder to make money, because you aren't guaranteed hours unless you're full time. And I don't know about other stores, but Best Buy only offers a few full time spots per store outside of management... and even supervisors aren't always full time. Try working in one of the mall stores during this time of year. It's a damned ghost town.

============================

Anyway! Video games are a nice product in that, as long as they are properly supported, there's a regular flow of releases, so you can generally count on consistent customer engagement and purchases. And we've seen great turnaround with the GCU program winning us more retail customers... though it means it eats our profits too. Oh well.

For you guys that are curious about the Switch, I agree with Obliterator. Slightly better average shipments during the month itself, but it's still patchy as hell, and there was no consolidated push to offer a single moment of potency. We sell every single unit that reaches the shelves, just because we still haven't come close to meeting the initial demand by its primary consumer base.

Last month, it looks like that huge push really was nationwide, and super important too, to allow them to get MK8 out to a big push of people. Which seems to be good advertising... but we can't sell them if they're not available.

The PS4 keeps trucking along with a steady momentum, the slim model still consistently the primary seller, but the Pro has done a great job of defining itself as a solid product that attaches very well with customers either buying high end TVs, or previously having done so. Knowing that it exists and the value option there, with the simple and direct value prop it has, has made it an easy sell, as I expected. The sell-share per month still hasn't reached even close to half, the price difference is still to high for that, but it remains a consistent, and encouraging product add to their inventory.

XB1 has really been struggling by comparison though. I think I said something similar last month, but there's just not a lot going on there with it *as it stands now*. They've staked their claim on Scorpio, and a few of my staff are looking forward to that, and I've had questions from a couple of my regulars that are Xbox folks, until we can start taking preorders, I genuinely have no idea how to tell how it's going to do at this point. I mean, let's be clear, the XB1 is still not at Wii U levels, or something like that. It's sold very competitively with the PS4 in the US, but right now it is just selling very weak by comparison.
 
Allo everyone. Welcome to, as Welfare put it, the slowest period, hhuh

Thanks for the info Abdiel as always and a detail look on the retail space.

As far as you can tell, do you think XB1 has been selling slower compared to last year or about the same?
 

Elandyll

Banned
Allo everyone. Welcome to, as Welfare put it, the slowest period, huh? I'm not sure if I've spoken about this time of year before, but the post Holidays, and into Spring-Summer period is retail nightmare land. This is when you see us coming up with creative ways to try to bring customers into the stores, when there's unusual sales and offers being presented by corporate partners, because otherwise, you're relying on the last 2-3 months of the year to keep all these other months of barely in black or in the red to stay operating. It's why you see so many shops closing in the retail space, because the hugely skewed nature of our yearly selling period isn't sustainable, honestly. Unless we can make up for the entire year during that window of chaos, we have to hope that during this time we can shave labor hours and make enough sales to justify the staff that is available. For general staff, it's lower key, but also harder to make money, because you aren't guaranteed hours unless you're full time. And I don't know about other stores, but Best Buy only offers a few full time spots per store outside of management... and even supervisors aren't always full time. Try working in one of the mall stores during this time of year. It's a damned ghost town.

============================

Anyway! Video games are a nice product in that, as long as they are properly supported, there's a regular flow of releases, so you can generally count on consistent customer engagement and purchases. And we've seen great turnaround with the GCU program winning us more retail customers... though it means it eats our profits too. Oh well.

For you guys that are curious about the Switch, I agree with Obliterator. Slightly better average shipments during the month itself, but it's still patchy as hell, and there was no consolidated push to offer a single moment of potency. We sell every single unit that reaches the shelves, just because we still haven't come close to meeting the initial demand by its primary consumer base.

Last month, it looks like that huge push really was nationwide, and super important too, to allow them to get MK8 out to a big push of people. Which seems to be good advertising... but we can't sell them if they're not available.

The PS4 keeps trucking along with a steady momentum, the slim model still consistently the primary seller, but the Pro has done a great job of defining itself as a solid product that attaches very well with customers either buying high end TVs, or previously having done so. Knowing that it exists and the value option there, with the simple and direct value prop it has, has made it an easy sell, as I expected. The sell-share per month still hasn't reached even close to half, the price difference is still to high for that, but it remains a consistent, and encouraging product add to their inventory.

XB1 has really been struggling by comparison though. I think I said something similar last month, but there's just not a lot going on there with it *as it stands now*. They've staked their claim on Scorpio, and a few of my staff are looking forward to that, and I've had questions from a couple of my regulars that are Xbox folks, until we can start taking preorders, I genuinely have no idea how to tell how it's going to do at this point. I mean, let's be clear, the XB1 is still not at Wii U levels, or something like that. It's sold very competitively with the PS4 in the US, but right now it is just selling very weak by comparison.

Thanks as usual for the great info Abdiel!

I was wondering as it relates to retail sales, does E3 generally create excitement towards stores, and possibly help fight the mid year slump?
 

Abdiel

Member
Thanks as usual for the great info Abdiel!

I was wondering as it relates to retail sales, does E3 generally create excitemwnt towards stores, and possibly help fight the mid year slump?

Yes, and No.

As someone already posted in another thread, you see the return of our Preorder specials, and big game announcements / new hardware announcements when they happen inevitably bleeds over some to our stores, as we see customers come to us for any possible info we might have beyond announcements. Obviously, we don't usually have much details beyond what is shown in the trailers, and such, but for someone like myself, who absorbs excessive about of media about the various systems to make sure my staff remains actively informed and can offer correct information for all customer questions, this means we can be helpful regardless of the situations.

So we can assist with preorders, or just offer guidance for expectations on the coming year for purchase plans, and so on.

Sometimes E3 will help people make a decision for a game console purchase, because they'll finally see a game that makes the push over the edge for them announced, so they are okay with buying something and starting on their 'backlog', so to speak. Not a huge number of customers, but it can have a small bump.

E3 is just such a big event it gets plenty of gamer related news out there so it helps create that excitement with people who pay attention. For the larger populace that doesn't care beyond finding out that a game actually released until Christmas time... not really, heh.

Hence... Yes and No.
 
What's the bet that lowballin' the Switch numbers this month turns around and bites us all in the ass!!

you bet on much more supply than JP got in MAY
shipping times and all that stuff is different, but right now i don't see a huge shift in the regional allocation yet


April sales

JP ~ 212k
US 280k
(1:1.32)

May sales
JP ~126k


even assuming 1:1.5 we talk about sub 200k for the Switch in the US
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
What's the bet that lowballin' the Switch numbers this month turns around and bites us all in the ass!!

Just reading thru:

whats the deal with the Switch stock situation thread
the Nintendo battling Apple for parts thread
and just Switch stock related threads....

I am thinking they may have stock issues for the rest of the year.

Maybe not 300K but still.

I say this as no way near an expert or knowledgeable on these matters.

The 3DS always bit me, so something has to take its place. Damn Nintendo.....
 

Vena

Member
With the Japanese shipments roughly ~27k thereabouts per week, the question is how much larger the "more than last month" shipments are in NA for this month. If its erring on the side of 40-50k, we'd be looking at 160-200k.

NA saw a spike in shipment for MK8D launch but we have no idea how large that spike was, was it 100K? 150K? From there we can more or less suss out what the shipments may look like in the US.

In Japan, MK8D launch saw something around a 50% increase in stock for the week before into the week of, but then stock dropped in half for the following weeks and into this month. In the US, however, report is that the week to week supply has actually increased so the behavior seems to be divergent from Japan for this month but by how much (and how large the MK8D shipment was) is not well known.

If we, let's say, have a 100k shipment allocation for MK8D launch, that places the monthly performance at ~180k, or 45k per week across the entire NA which would be a fairly tight allocation store to store. If that supply has increased (but the spike of 100k is down) then we could see something like 55-60k per week instead, and place us in some window of my previously mentioned 200k-240k. But this is largely just an eyeballing guesstimate based on a number of blind assumptions.
 

donny2112

Member
[NSW] 200K
[PS4] 172K
[XB1] 80K

Edit:
When Microsoft announces their price cut on old XB1 at/pre E3, expect June PR about huge % increases MOM. :lol
 
With the Japanese shipments roughly ~27k thereabouts per week, the question is how much larger the "more than last month" shipments are in NA for this month. If its erring on the side of 40-50k, we'd be looking at 160-200k.

NA saw a spike in shipment for MK8D launch but we have no idea how large that spike was, was it 100K? 150K? From there we can more or less suss out what the shipments may look like in the US.

In Japan, MK8D launch saw something around a 50% increase in stock for the week before into the week of, but then stock dropped in half for the following weeks and into this month. In the US, however, report is that the week to week supply has actually increased so the behavior seems to be divergent from Japan for this month but by how much (and how large the MK8D shipment was) is not well known.

If we, let's say, have a 100k shipment allocation for MK8D launch, that places the monthly performance at ~180k, or 45k per week across the entire NA which would be a fairly tight allocation store to store. If that supply has increased (but the spike of 100k is down) then we could see something like 55-60k per week instead, and place us in some window of my previously mentioned 200k-240k. But this is largely just an eyeballing guesstimate based on a number of blind assumptions.


if they don't even say how much bigger their shipments / weekly allocations are now, it's impossible to make anything about it anyway.

1 unit more
10% more
50% more
double
triple

without any more information like this it's useless
no one needs to talk about hard numbers, but relative changes are needed.


that's the reason why retail murgins (don't know if i write this correct) are not better or worse than anecdotal murgins and i don't use them.
a Gamestop store selling out all of it's Xbox One Elite consoles for that week, or Ps4 doing better than Xbox One at BestBuy does not tell anything.

Ps4 doing X% better or worse than last year for us. That would be something
 

Chobel

Member
GTA V is the best selling game in the US of all time*, CoD:Blops is #2

rK0Dmr8.png


https://twitter.com/MatPiscatella/status/870295917735301120

*Since NPD began tracking in 1995
 
the huge success of GTA V doesn't really come as a surprise as it's the only decent tennis game of this hardware generation.
 

Humdinger

Member
If this is the wrong place to ask, just ignore me, but I know SalesGAF congregates here, so I'll ask here.

At this point in its lifecycle, has the Xbox One sold more than the 360 had, at the same point in its lifecycle (worldwide)?

I'm basically asking whether the Xbox One is outselling the 360. I know it was earlier in the generation, but I'm wondering about where things stand now.

I know it's tough because MS doesn't release numbers, but we've got some estimates to work with (e.g., the Superdata estimate from January, at 26 million).
 
If this is the wrong place to ask, just ignore me, but I know SalesGAF congregates here, so I'll ask here.

At this point in its lifecycle, has the Xbox One sold more than the 360 had, at the same point in its lifecycle?

I'm basically asking whether the Xbox One is outselling the 360. I know it was earlier in the generation, but I'm wondering about where things stand now.

I know it's tough because MS doesn't release numbers, but we've got some estimates to work with (e.g., the Superdata estimate from January, at 26 million).

US = Yes
WW = no one knows except MS, but it's very close.
And more likely to be slightly behind the X360.


You want some hard numbers, too?

in the US, the Xbox One is roughly 1.5m ahead of Xb360 right now (first 42 months)
why Xbox One is below X360 WW? Japan! up to this point JP X360 sales were already 1 million. Xbox One? 80k

Xb360 shipped 30.3 million first 14 quarter
Ps4 shipped 60 million first 14 quarter
Xbox One is estimated to be a little less than half of Ps4.
 

cakely

Member
the huge success of GTA V doesn't really come as a surprise as it's the only decent tennis game of this hardware generation.

This is a gem.

Allo everyone.

...

The PS4 keeps trucking along with a steady momentum, the slim model still consistently the primary seller, but the Pro has done a great job of defining itself as a solid product that attaches very well with customers either buying high end TVs, or previously having done so. Knowing that it exists and the value option there, with the simple and direct value prop it has, has made it an easy sell, as I expected. The sell-share per month still hasn't reached even close to half, the price difference is still to high for that, but it remains a consistent, and encouraging product add to their inventory.

As usual, you've got the most useful posts in the NPD prediction thread, thanks.

"Even close to half" is much higher than I would have guessed. I thought the Pro was making up about 20% of new PS4 sales?
 

MTC100

Banned
[NSW] 285K
[PS4] 185K
[XB1] 110K

For the Switch it's more like a guessing game how much units Nintendo can ship, they could sell much more than that. There will be a bit more sold than the last month, simply because Nintendo didn't airdrop Switches in April that were meant for may, like they did in march.

"Even close to half" is much higher than I would have guessed. I thought the Pro was making up about 20% of new PS4 sales?

I think the PS4 Pro is selling roughly 4k units on a weekly basis in Japan though, it seems to do much better in the US(and most likely Europe too)
 
Hey all... just posted my Q4 sales predictions for the US and what I'm looking forward to at E3.

- Call of Duty: World War II will be the quarter's best-selling game, with sales growing more than 25 percent versus last year's Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare.

- At least 4 titles will achieve $100 million or more in Q4 packaged consumer sales.

- The top 5 selling games this Q4 will combine to generate at least 20 percent more packaged consumer revenues than the top 5 one year ago.

- This year's top 5 selling games of Q4 will be Call of Duty: WWII, Star Wars Battlefront II, NBA 2K18, Super Mario Odyssey and Destiny 2.

- By the end of Q4, approximately 320 packaged titles will reach retail shelves, up from 271 a year ago, and up from the 21st century low of 230 games in 2015.

- At year's end, the time-aligned installed base of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One will exceed that of the PlayStation 2 and Xbox by 5 percent, and will be ahead of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 by at least 25 percent.

- Sales of portable hardware and software will be down by at least 40 percent versus Q4 2016.

- At least 90 percent of Q4 packaged software sales will come from the PlayStation 4, Xbox One and Switch.​

Looking forward to being wrong! Would dig reading your thoughts.

hope you will tell us later what you got wrong and right

That's the plan. After the year, both my Jan and June predictions with yays or nays.
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Hey all... just posted my Q4 sales predictions for the US and what I'm looking forward to at E3.

-snip-

- At year’s end, the time-aligned installed base of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One will exceed that of the PlayStation 2 and Xbox by 5 percent, and will be ahead of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 by at least 25 percent.

- Sales of portable hardware and software will be down by at least 40 percent versus Q4 2016.

- At least 90 percent of Q4 packaged software sales will come from the PlayStation 4, Xbox One and Switch.[/INDENT]

For the first one, that would be amazing v PS2 and orig Xbox.

The 2nd one, heeey the Switch...its a hybrid. It doesnt get counted in handheld categories too?

The 3rd....well where else is it going to come from, lol?

Appreciate you hanging out with is in the NPD threads.
 

ethomaz

Banned
- At year’s end, the time-aligned installed base of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One will exceed that of the PlayStation 2 and Xbox by 5 percent, and will be ahead of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 by at least 25 percent.
That is a big drop from the actual 29%, no?
 

Welfare

Member
Hey all... just posted my Q4 sales predictions for the US and what I'm looking forward to at E3.

Call of Duty: World War II will be the quarter's best-selling game, with sales growing more than 25 percent versus last year's Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare.
Hopefully this happens, but what are your thoughts on WW2's revenue increase and ASP difference from IW? IW had a very good $80 version that came with MWR but WW2 looks to not have something equal to that to drive buyers to the higher priced SKU.

At least 4 titles will achieve $100 million or more in Q4 packaged consumer sales.
Could you post previous Q4 results that have accomplished this, or if 4 titles is a low amount compared to previous years?

The top 5 selling games this Q4 will combine to generate at least 20 percent more packaged consumer revenues than the top 5 one year ago.
This seems doable given 2016's relatively weak Q4.

This year's top 5 selling games of Q4 will be Call of Duty: WWII, Star Wars Battlefront II, NBA 2K18, Super Mario Odyssey and Destiny 2.
Safe list and most likely to happen. Do you think this has the chance of being different when accounting for hardware bundles?

If Pokémon Stars is a Q4 launch, do you think it'll bump Destiny or fall below the top 5?

By the end of Q4, approximately 320 packaged titles will reach retail shelves, up from 271 a year ago, and up from the 21st century low of 230 games in 2015.
At least retail is growing.

At year's end, the time-aligned installed base of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One will exceed that of the PlayStation 2 and Xbox by 5 percent, and will be ahead of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 by at least 25 percent.
Do you think both PS4 and XB1 will surpass 20M units at the end of 2017, or just PS4?
 
- By the end of Q4, approximately 320 packaged titles will reach retail shelves, up from 271 a year ago, and up from the 21st century low of 230 games in 2015.
That's remarkable. Retail still refuses to die it seems.
Is mr. queso still around in these threads by the way?
 
Thank you, appreciate you taking the time.
you're welcome

depending on the success of Xbox Scorpio, Xbox One could trail ahead of Xb360 again at the end of this year, because - oddly enough - Fiscal Year 5 was a down year for Xb360
just 5.2 million units for the holiday season. down from 6 million the year before

DBWk2ctXcAAYSQA.jpg:large



Xb360 slim and Kinect were released in the Jl-Sp 2010/11 quarter
 
That is a big drop from the actual 29%, no?
That percentage would indicate a drop of ~500k units over the next 8 months, YoY. For the first four months, Xbox One is slightly down YoY (but Scorpio is coming), and PS4 is slightly up YoY. So I think Mr. Piscatella's being conservative.

Do you think both PS4 and XB1 will surpass 20M units at the end of 2017, or just PS4?
Xbox One would have to do pretty poorly--especially considering Scorpio launch--to fail to surpass 20m.

Thank you, appreciate you taking the time.
Keep in mind that he's likely overestimating Xbox One; they're almost certainly behind 360 now, and possibly by more than a slight amount. In the US, 2017 isn't going well versus the prior gen. They're at 1.5m ahead now, as said...but they started January almost 2m ahead. This is the fastest change in a four-month period since holidays 2015. And in the opposite direction: they were gaining versus 360 then, falling back now. It's the worst four-month deficit versus 360 since they cut Kinect.

Fortunately, Microsoft have Scorpio to look forward to. It should definitely stop or reverse the slide.
 
Thanks for the responses!

The 2nd one, heeey the Switch...its a hybrid. It doesnt get counted in handheld categories too?

We've put it in with Consoles because we kept talking about it for days and couldn't figure out a better way of doing it and didn't want to create a new category.

That is a big drop from the actual 29%, no?

Forecast cushion. I don't anticipate a momentum slowdown.

Hopefully this happens, but what are your thoughts on WW2's revenue increase and ASP difference from IW? IW had a very good $80 version that came with MWR but WW2 looks to not have something equal to that to drive buyers to the higher priced SKU.

Outstanding observation. True. But I'm predicting WWII will get there despite the pricing challenge (meaning unit lift will be higher than rev lift). Could be wrong. I want to believe.

Could you post previous Q4 results that have accomplished this, or if 4 titles is a low amount compared to previous years?

Another good question. Over the past 5 years, it averages 4.8. Could easily see 1-2 more titles reaching this threshold this year. Another bit of conservatism in the prediction.

Safe list and most likely to happen. Do you think this has the chance of being different when accounting for hardware bundles?

Depending on which title is in the bundle, maybe?

If Pokémon Stars is a Q4 launch, do you think it'll bump Destiny or fall below the top 5?

Phew, well we are talking the 2nd quarter of Destiny sales here, so wouldn't be shocking. Also wouldn't be a big surprise to see one of the other big new releases push themselves onto the list.

At least retail is growing.

A big chunk of this is digital games like Stardew Valley coming to retail. Great for discoverability on shelf and for those folks (particularly younger) that rely on physical resale value to fund new game purchases.

I'll straight up dodge your last question!

That's remarkable. Retail still refuses to die it seems.

I dunno, the data I see suggests that digital is far more incremental than cannibalistic, and that a ton of digital game purchases are being made out of convenience, and a big chunk of those games wouldn't be purchased at all if physical were the only option. I think retail has a long and successful road ahead of it so long as publishers keep supporting it and the consoles don't lose physical media support with the next gen.

That percentage would indicate a drop of ~500k units over the next 8 months, YoY. For the first four months, Xbox One is slightly down YoY (but Scorpio is coming), and PS4 is slightly up YoY. So I think Mr. Piscatella's being conservative.

Indeed I am. Nice catch.
 

ethomaz

Banned
That percentage would indicate a drop of ~500k units over the next 8 months, YoY. For the first four months, Xbox One is slightly down YoY (but Scorpio is coming), and PS4 is slightly up YoY. So I think Mr. Piscatella's being conservative.
Peharps he is talking about ltd sales...

PS4 + XB1 = ~35m

That is 29% over PS3 + 360... ~27.5m at same time frame.

25% means PS4 + XB1 will probably sell significantly lower than PS3 + 360 in the comparable year.

While it is not a big deal I did not expect that big drop (we are talking here about 2-3 million) happens in US where PS4 is doing way better than PS3 and XB1 is ahead 360.

This probably mean XB1 will probably fall below 360 in US (something expected but I guessed it will take some time).

Well it a prediction of course... and he being conservative could end at 27-28% that is a small drop of 500-1000k.

Forecast cushion. I don't anticipate a momentum slowdown.
I understand that it is more about 360 getting momentum than PS4 or XB1 losing it.
 
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