whyamihere
Banned
There are no other nos.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
- Start date
- Status
There are no other nos.
Autodidact
Banned
Not Heller and Collins? You think the whole thing is staged?
whyamihere
Banned
No, there are no other Nos he can afford to get.
Fenderputty
Banned
Right, my point was that political grandstanding seems like a more flimsy position than actual tax cuts.
BlastProcessing
Member
The FSB really knows how to pick 'em.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
No, I mean McConnell is probably negotiating with the other nos because he knows Paul won't budge. Collins et al., would move toward yes if the bill was better. Paul is the only one who would toward yes if the bill was worse. Turtle is going after the ones who want to make it better because he knows they can switch.
For some reason, the second quote makes me picture him like Bighead from Silicon Valley lol
balladofwindfishes
Member
Collins' and Heller's nos don't exactly leave room to vote yes.
I don't see how Heller can walk back on his opposition at this point and it's hard to fathom both Moderate Darlings voting for it.
TestOfTide
Banned
What are the odds that Carter Page is just making shit up to hide the possibility that the FBI successfully flipped him?
I mean, why else would the FBI interview him for TEN HOURS over 5 different meetings unless they felt they were getting stuff out of him.
I guess what I am saying is that you don't need to have faith in the morals of those moderates. You just need to have some faith in those moderates feeling that the bigger political suicide is voting for this bill than letting the ACA stay as law.
balladofwindfishes
Member
The first clue, he probably didn't, was when he forgot to add a mandate to the bill.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
At the very least, it's becoming apparent that things are not going according to plan.
Autodidact
Banned
I've never understood the mastermind McConnell theory anyway. For two years he had a Democratic president who veto any of his fuckery. Now he and Ryan have to govern, and neither has proved particularly adept at it so far.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I don't think McConnell "has it all figured out." Instead, I don't trust any GOP members to do the right thing. That's why I'm still feeling this to be a farce that will change when they magically "make concessions" over the next couple days. I could be wrong, and that would be great for the country, but I'll believe it when I see it from this group of evil people.
McConnell is the least of my worries. My guess is Trump has another meeting with these people like he did the House and that pushes them over the edge.
Fenderputty
Banned
Only thing that makes sense for Rand staying a "no", is if he secretly wants this to fail because of the Medicaid cuts but he can't actually say that. So he essentially sets a stupid far right bar that cannot be met but provides him some cover.
The dude should have no issues kicking people of healthcare. The bill is still a block grant to Medicaid, which should be a huge win for him, and the bill provides the savings for the tax cuts I'm sure he wants
The dude should have no issues kicking people of healthcare. The bill is still a block grant to Medicaid, which should be a huge win for him, and the bill provides the savings for the tax cuts I'm sure he wants
BlastProcessing
Member
I said it before. The political landscape that McConnell has had success in was radically different than the current landscape. These are untested waters for McConnell and assuming that his past successes will transfer to the current situation seems misguided.
TestOfTide
Banned
Again, it's not about trusting the moderates to do the right thing out some altruistic reasons or personal moral reasons.
It's about there being too many moderate GOP senators who have decided that voting for this Senate Bill would be political suicide and they are planning to vote against this bill entirely to save their own asses.
Honestly that would not surprise me at all.
Weeks ago there was a twitter thread about how McConnell was doing this whole rally for the Senate bill to see if could spook any naysayers into voting for the bill at the last minute if that last minute came very suddenly. What we are seeing is that for most part no, the naysayers are still not that quick to commit political suicide for Mitch McConnell.
whyamihere
Banned
I don't think you ever have anything guaranteed when you have a 3-seat majority in the Senate, but I also think it's likely this bill will pass.
Deuce Deuce
Member
Wouldn't Rand Paul get eviscerated by supporting this health bill since Kentucky has so many Medicaid beneficiaries.
Wait, wouldn't McConnell as well? I'm confused how either survive if this passes.
Wait, wouldn't McConnell as well? I'm confused how either survive if this passes.
Autodidact
Banned
To quote that preeminent philosopher shinra-bansho, "Lol Kentucky."
He just got re-elected. He's got a R after name so the voters of Kentucky will still vote him in the next time. No need to care when the voters will reward you anyways.
Polls regularly show even the people of Kentucky hating McConnell and he still wins reelection anyway.
It's Kentucky. They're golden as long as they have the R next to their name.
TestOfTide
Banned
It's not looking like the current Senate Version will pass. Too many GOP senators that are viewing this bill as political suicide, especially after it came out that Paul Ryan plans to put whatever the Senate passes into an up and down vote in the house, meaning that unlike with the house bill voters, the Senators can't claim they are voting for this bill in the hopes that the other side of congress will fix it.
While that's true, Rand voting for this bill would probably make him much more vulnerable to a primary challenge considering that this GOP healthcare bill doesn't even much support among republicans.
whyamihere
Banned
My thought process is that there are too many unknowns, and if I had to bet, I'd bet on it passing, but we'll see what McConnell can do with 200 billion.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
The bill is passing. Even Susan Collins would probably vote for it if they absolutely required her vote for it to pass. There's no republicans senators that I have any faith in to pass up a chance for huge tax cuts on the rich. It's basically their primary purpose for being there.
TestOfTide
Banned
If anything, there are LESS unknowns than there were when the House passed their version. The Senate version already has a CBO score, is being framed as THE bill (whereas the house bill was being framed as just the first draft that would be punted to the Senate for them to fix), and we have Trump giving his disapproval of the bill accidentally.
Collins just tweeted today after the CBO score came out that she won't be voting for the bill and basically explained why it would be political suicide for her to vote for it.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Of course. She isn't required for the bill to pass.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
This definitely won't pass, the Freedom Caucus vulnerable House moderates McConnell Medicaid expansion senators Rand Paul will stop it!
Don't worry guys, GOP moderates are totally reliable.
whyamihere
Banned
PPP of NV Senate:
Rosen (D): 42
Heller (R): 41
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/poll-heller-rosen-in-dead-heat-in-senate-race
How... is an incumbent senator in a swing state only at 41%?
EDIT: Other numbers from the poll:
Trump approval: 44/51
Heller approval: 35/44
Trumpcare: 31/55
Planned Parenthood: 50/39
Rosen (D): 42
Heller (R): 41
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/poll-heller-rosen-in-dead-heat-in-senate-race
How... is an incumbent senator in a swing state only at 41%?
EDIT: Other numbers from the poll:
Trump approval: 44/51
Heller approval: 35/44
Trumpcare: 31/55
Planned Parenthood: 50/39
Autodidact
Banned
And I wager that Rosen has less name recognition, too. Not good news for Heller.
Goddamn those PP numbers. Abortion more popular that Trump.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Is that above average approval for Trumpcare or did I miss it becoming more popular?
TestOfTide
Banned
Collins knows it's suicide to vote for it.
Heller knows it's suicide to vote for it.
Murkowski knows it's suicide to vote for it.
Rand Paul knows this bill is so bad for Kentucky voters that he could possibly get primaried if he votes for it.
Like we aren't talking about easily disconnectable stuff like voting for Trump cabinet people. This healthcare bill is political suicide and enough GOP senators realize that. And this isn't like the House where the house members could say they were punting this to the Senate for them to fix. Paul Ryan plans to put whatever the Senate passes up to an up or down vote in the house.
Well damn.
TestOfTide
Banned
Because maybe we shouldn't really classify Nevada as a swing state anymore considering that Trump couldn't even win it in the Red Rural Wave of 2016?
It's a lean/likely blue state at this point. In fact I'll even go so far as to say that the only states that Hillary won in 2016 that could be considered swing states by 2020 are Maine, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.
Box of Kittens
Banned
I would not be surprised to see above average Trump/Trumpcare approvals from NV just because it has a relatively high floor for Trump due to demographics.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
She won it by less points than Maine
broz0rs
Member
TestOfTide
Banned
Yes, but Maine is trending similarly as the rust belt (more republican) whereas Nevada has been trending the opposite direction.
Yep. This has absolutely NOTHING to do with morals at this point and everything to do with GOP Senators knowing that the house plans on voting for whatever the Senate Passes, meaning there is no "punting it to the other side of congress" like some house voters argued.
Even Rand fucking Paul clearly feels that he would be vulnerable to a primary challenge if he votes for this bill.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
In 2012 Obama won Nevada by 6.7 points, making it 2.8 points more Democratic than the country as a whole. In 2016, Hillary won Nevada by 2.4 points, making it 0.3 points more Democratic than the country as a whole. That is a rightward trend.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Nevada is a case of dueling demographics. High non-college educated white population, which is good for Republicans. But a high Hispanic population, which is good for Democrats.
Autodidact
Banned
I'd say retaining Harry Reid's seat and flipping two R House seats points to a blueward trend in Nevada. The top of the ticket doesn't always tell you everything.
Don't forget that Jacky Rosen won an R+2 district that narrowly voted for Trump, too.
Don't forget that Jacky Rosen won an R+2 district that narrowly voted for Trump, too.
TestOfTide
Banned
2016 was an election in which rural white conservatives turned out in ridiculously high numbers while the democratic base did not turnout as much. Virginia also technically trended red in 2016 POTUS compared to 2012 but we still treat it as a lean/likely blue state these days because the demographic trends heavily favor democrats. Similar situation with Nevada.
Meanwhile Maine went from safe blue state in 2012 to very clearly a swing state in 2016 and the demographic trends are in the GOP's favor.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Virginia went from even to D+3 from 2012->2016
All a future Democrat needs to do to lose is have their margins be slightly worse and have slightly lower Latino turnout, both of which are conceivable.
https://twitter.com/PuestoLoco/status/879462714350948355
Total conspiracy theory, but I have almost zero doubt that this actually occurred, because Trump is an idiot and they've been on to the fucker from the start.
Total conspiracy theory, but I have almost zero doubt that this actually occurred, because Trump is an idiot and they've been on to the fucker from the start.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
This is good, although he said it was because he wanted more time to deliberate.
Aaron Strife
Banned
That's rough. I remember feeling pretty cocky about Mark Pryor when he was posting double digit leads. They were something in the realm of 40D-30R. Turns out he was polling at his floor while his lesser-known opponents were... well, lesser-known.
It's way too early to make any concrete predictions. Hell, Election Day 2016 taught me that making concrete predictions after the polls close can backfire. But Heller looks like he's in trouble.
Comparing only two data points is not how you identify trends.
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