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[Bonen no Max'd]

Comparing only two data points is not how you identify trends.

I was just correcting his false assertion that Virginia had moved to be more Republican between 2012 and 2016.

Though for what it's worth the trend from 2008->2012 was also Nevada becoming more Republican relative to the nation, going from a D+5.5 to D+2.8. Of course, it trended blue from 2004->2008 because Bush won it twice. It's almost like saying it isn't a swing state anymore is ridiculous!

 

[TestOfTide]

Virginia went from even to D+3 from 2012->2016

All a future Democrat needs to do to lose is have their margins be slightly worse and have slightly lower Latino turnout, both of which are conceivable.

You don't get what I'm saying so I'll explain it this way:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada,_2012
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada,_2016

Looking at the numbers, turnout was DOWN in the Blue parts of Nevada but UP in the Red parts compared to 2012. 2016 was basically the best case scenario for a republican and the democrat STILL won.

You are saying that all that needs to happen for a democrat to lose is for latino turnout to be slightly lower, but in truth it was already down AND for republican to win they would need to keep that rural white turnout way up like in 2016, which is the equivalent to expecting Obama to get the same sort of turnout for his base in 2012 than he got in 2008.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Senator Johnson of Wisconsin opposing

https://twitter.com/DanaBashCNN/status/879505016150790145

He implied a few days ago he didn't like the process, so this is just him confirming it again

He doesn't seem to particularly care about the contents of the law, he just doesn't like that it was rushed, so he's not a confident no (he'd likely vote for it in late July if they delayed the vote), but one that could kill it if the bill did come to a vote this week due to McConnell either being cocky, or not caring if it passes or not.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I wonder if Nevada polling still sucks though.

 

[Diablos]

If Mitch changes the bill can the Dems filibuster?

 

[chadskin]

The red line is back

 

[TestOfTide]

If Mitch changes the bill can the Dems filibuster?

If Mitch changes the bill and tries to pass it before a CBO score comes out, then yes they can.

I don't think it matters at this point, because we are seeing that the Senate doesn't even have 50 votes that are willing to sign on to the HFC's demands.

 

[Diablos]

If Mitch changes the bill and tries to pass it before a CBO score comes out, then yes they can.

I don't think it matters at this point, because we are seeing that the Senate doesn't even have 50 votes that are willing to sign on to the HFC's demands.

He could change the rules of course...

 

[~Kinggi~]

The red line is back

gotta prep a shock and awe campaign for the major oppo coming.

 

[Beer Monkey]

If Trump attacks Assad's troops it will be whatever attack Putin approves.

 

[Ogodei]

The red line is back

A few hundred million in missiles spent on an attack you'll have to tell them about 15 minutes in advance to avoid killing any Russians?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Lol Kentucky.

 

[shinra-bansho]

In 2012 Obama won Nevada by 6.7 points, making it 2.8 points more Democratic than the country as a whole. In 2016, Hillary won Nevada by 2.4 points, making it 0.3 points more Democratic than the country as a whole. That is a rightward trend.

That's not a trend at all.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

That's not a trend at all.

.

The candidate matters.

 

[GrapeApes]

The red line is back

Can I get a link to that? Not finding it outright.

While that's true, Rand voting for this bill would probably make him much more vulnerable to a primary challenge considering that this GOP healthcare bill doesn't even much support among republicans.

I just don't buy these red state senators being primaried by someone to their left. Can't see bringing back Obamacare as a popular position in a GOP primary. This bill is a shit burger but it's their shit burger.

 

[chadskin]

Can I get a link to that? Not finding it outright.

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/879515903767056384

Always takes a while until they eventually pop up on the WH page.

 

[whyamihere]

Nevada is a case of dueling demographics. High non-college educated white population, which is good for Republicans. But a high Hispanic population, which is good for Democrats.

Yup. Nevada is a pure turnout game based on the demographics available.

 

[Rebel Leader]

From the cbo thread

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/879411199934443520

If they were off by 100% wouldn't it be 0? Not 10.3M, or what ever is real non-alt-fact number.

Holy shit.

 

[Fenderputty]

I just don't buy these red state senators being primaried by someone to their left. Can't see bringing back Obamacare as a popular position in a GOP primary. This bill is a shit burger but it's their shit burger.

They're woried about losing to the left if it passes and being primaried by the ultra right if they don't repeal. Rand is setting himself up to vote no because the bill is not far right enough. I assume he thinks it will provide him cover and that's assuming he actually votes no. I speculated earlier that he may want this to fail since Kentucky is a Medicaid expansion state and his super right stance gives him cover to kill the for reason that keep him safe. Sort of having his cake and eating it too.

Who knows though. I fully expect Paul to flip to a yes if it's between his vote and not getting taxes done


Edit: "double" of something is a 100% gain. There's planety to pick at there besides silly word games

 

[PeteZaTheHutt]

@etuckerAP
Carter Page tells AP that FBI "acknowledged that I'm a loyal American veteran but indicated that their 'management' was concerned" (1/2)

"The FBI was pretty cool. It got really hot for some reason and this one nice guy gave me water. I liked him. The other guy was SUPER mean, but that's ok."

I can't help but think of Brandon Dassey from "How To Make A Murderer"...

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

They're woried about losing to the left if it passes and being primaried by the ultra right if they don't repeal. Rand is setting himself up to vote no because the bill is not far right enough. I assume he thinks it will provide him cover and that's assuming he actually votes no. I speculated earlier that he may want this to fail since Kentucky is a Medicaid expansion state and his super right stance gives him cover to kill the for reason that keep him safe. Sort of having his cake and eating it too.

Who knows though. I fully expect Paul to flip to a yes if it's between his vote and not getting taxes done


Edit: "double" of something is a 100% gain. There's planety to pick at there besides silly word games

That's an incredibly weird phrasing, though. It was less than half the CBO estimate, or the CBO estimate was over 100% greater than what ended up actually happening, would be the ways a human being would put that.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

I just don't buy these red state senators being primaried by someone to their left. Can't see bringing back Obamacare as a popular position in a GOP primary. This bill is a shit burger but it's their shit burger.

I think Paul is showing how a clever politician can blur the lines between right and left. If this bill is the disaster everyone expects someone like Murkowski could definetly get hit for voting for a bill than left health care overly regulated and full of inefficiencies or some garbage. People won't care what the cause is just that their healthcare is terrible and she voted for the BRCA.

 

[Fenderputty]

That's an incredibly weird phrasing, though. It was less than half the CBO estimate, or the CBO estimate was over 100% greater than what ended up actually happening, would be the ways a human being would put that.

I agree it was a very odd phrasing.

 

[Plinko]

12m
Steve Kopack‏ @SteveKopack
Officials at CENTCOM tell BuzzFeed that they have "no idea" what prompted the White House threat to Assad tonight

That oppo coming must be something huge.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

#AlternativeMath

 

[B-Dubs]

That oppo coming must be something huge.

I mean, with what's been coming out of the White House the last few days there must be something going on somewhere.

 

[Surfinn]

That oppo coming must be something huge.

Goddamn PLEASE be worth the blue balls

 

[Rebel Leader]

What threat?

 

[BlastProcessing]

That oppo coming must be something huge.

Well, that's terrifying.

 

[skullmuffins]

What threat?

If this is some distraction campaign the administration may find that it doesn't work so well when literally no one in the white house has any credibility.

 

[Autodidact]

Yeah, if it didn't work back when more people were still in the "give him a chance" phase, it won't work now. He got like a fleeting 1% bump from those strikes.

But if they're this desperate, maybe my prediction of intercepted communications/emails is correct, or maybe - if we're really, REALLY lucky - audio or video of some sort.

 

[B-Dubs]

Yeah, if it didn't work back when more people were still in the "give him a chance" phase, it won't work now. He got like a fleeting 1% bump from those strikes.

But if they're this desperate, maybe my prediction of intercepted communications/emails is correct, or maybe - if we're really, REALLY lucky - audio or video of some sort.

Pee Pee Tape incoming

 

[chadskin]

Buzzfeed updated its story: https://www.buzzfeed.com/claudiakoerner/white-house-says-syria-may-be-preparing-another-chemical

Five defense officials reached by BuzzFeed News said they not only did not know where the potential chemical attack would come from, but they were unaware the White House was planning to release the statement. Usually such statements are coordinated across the national security agencies and departments before they are released.

Like what the hell. Is Spicey going rogue?

 

[B-Dubs]

Buzzfeed updated its story: https://www.buzzfeed.com/claudiakoerner/white-house-says-syria-may-be-preparing-another-chemical


Like what the hell. Is Spicey going rogue?

This feels like Preibus or Bannon. If it were Trump he'd have written it himself and Spicey doesn't have the balls to go rogue. If he did he'd have done it a long time ago.

 

[royalan]

Yeah, I was skeptical something big was coming...

Now I kinda believe something big is coming...

 

[BoogieWoogie]

Something huge is about to drop. Trump is flailing wildly to get the focus away from it.

 

[Surfinn]

Buzzfeed updated its story: https://www.buzzfeed.com/claudiakoerner/white-house-says-syria-may-be-preparing-another-chemical


Like what the hell. Is Spicey going rogue?

This is weird

 

[Autodidact]

It may not even be about Trump himself, but maybe we'll get concrete charges against someone in the inner circle. WaPo's story about Page today seemed to be setting the stage for something of that sort.

 

[Vixdean]

From the cbo thread




Holy shit.

It's also a straight up lie. Yes, the CBO overestimated the amount of people who would be covered by plans purchased from the exchanges, but they also vastly underestimated the amount of people who would gain coverage through Medicaid. The total amount of new insured that they predicted was right on.

 

[Drkirby]

Where is the oppo?

 

[Surfinn]

Where is the oppo?

Could be delayed because of the healthcare stuff.

Whatever it is must be big if they're actually planning a day of the week for the thing. Not to mention the desperate and seemingly random flailing of the WH.

 

[B-Dubs]

Could be delayed because of the healthcare stuff.

Whatever it is must be big if they're actually planning a day of the week for the thing. Not to mention the desperate and seemingly random flailing of the WH.

No one would delay a huge story. A big scoop is how to distinguish yourself from the competition and only a fool would give their competition an opportunity to beat them to the punch. If there's something big coming the only reason it's not out yet is simply because it hasn't been nailed down and is still going through the editorial process.

 

[skullmuffins]

Tommy Vietor @TVietor08
·
39s

I can't stress enough how insane it is not to fully coordinate this statement with CENTCOM unless the CW attack was imminent.

.

 

[neurosisxeno]

For someone who supposedly cares so much about the military and respects the intelligence community, the Trump administration continuously fails to give them even the most basic of notice before doing things...

No one would delay a huge story. A big scoop is how to distinguish yourself from the competition and only a fool would give their competition an opportunity to beat them to the punch. If there's something big coming the only reason it's not out yet is simply because it hasn't been nailed down and is still going through the editorial process.

The only thing I would add, is that its justifiable to sometime delay a story to ensure you have adequate sources or consult with council to avoid going to jail.

 

[Autodidact]

For someone who supposedly cares so much about the military and respects the intelligence community, the Trump administration continuously fails to give them even the most basic of notice before doing things...

Good. The less courtesy and loyalty he shows to them, the less loyal they'll be to him and the more likely they'll be to question his decisions.

 

[royalan]

Yeah, I was skeptical something big was coming...

Now I kinda believe something big is coming...

 

[Autodidact]

I might actually buy fireworks if it's juicy enough.

 

[B-Dubs]

The only thing I would add, is that its justifiable to sometime delay a story to ensure you have adequate sources or consult with council to avoid going to jail.

I mean, that's part of the whole editorial process. If you've got a big scoop like something on the Russia thing, it's only natural you're going to let the lawyers have a day or two with it to make sure you aren't going to jail or exposing your paper/network/website to litigation.

 

[neurosisxeno]

I mean, that's part of the whole editorial process. If you've got a big scoop like something on the Russia thing, it's only natural you're going to let the lawyers have a day or two with it to make sure you aren't going to jail or exposing your paper/network/website to litigation.

Exactly. It was hinted at on Friday, could take them a few days to verify everything and consult with council, leading to a Tuesday Oppo Dropo. The media loves Tues/Thu dumps.

 

[Surfinn]

Thanks for the info guys. Makes sense