Switch is going to crush 50 million, its $300 with Wii U ports and they cant make them fast enough, what do you think is going to happen when cheaper revisions come bundled with Pokemon or Animal Crossing?
Well I guess we will see. I just think that bigger factor in rather fast death for Nintendos platforms is lack of industry wide third party support (at least after SNES) and lack of presence in developing markets.
Heh...yeah the libary keeps on growing and essential stuff like VC or even non-gaming Apps ala Netflix etc. are missing. So the notion that it just suddenly stops selling when they have Prime 4, Pokemon and Animal Crossing already lined up for next year...and more publishers/indies embracing the platform seems....weird.
Not saying that its impossible...but the market would have change quite fast for the Switch being not a viable product anymore. Nintendo teams will go out on Switch after they have seen what for software sales are possible with them targeting gamers....there are still a bunch of Nintendo IPs that havent made the jump to HD yet. Luigis Mansion 3 for example is an obvious choice...
dude the system is outperforming expectations to an insane degree. mario kart is doing well, and first-party and third-party games are doing well in general.
what you think might happen is literally unprecedented.
There will be some degree of overlap, but 7-10m units sold is still sizable when we're talking ltd userbases of approx 50-60m. That's not a "swift death", and there no real consistent pattern here. The reality is the successful Nintendo platforms tend to still move millions amd get games and revisions late and post-active cycle, the unsuccessful ones don't. And even then there are still exceptions.I did. With your 15 million figure you are making mistake by combining all those NES figures from SNES launch year. For example proper European launch for SNES was FY 1992 despite that chart showing 300k units shipped for FY 1991 (have to check out where they shipped those). That already would take 4.35 million units off from that 15 million figure (NES is probably only console peaking during its last year in Europe lol). I don't know were you calculated your 9 million SNES figure because with that same flawed method I got around 6.9 million. Looking at SNES launch dates that should be actually pretty close to real number (maybe million off) but nevertheless while better post gen numbers than for N64 or GC still nothing to write home about.
Heh...yeah the libary keeps on growing and essential stuff like VC or even non-gaming Apps ala Netflix etc. are missing. So the notion that it just suddenly stops selling when they have Prime 4, Pokemon and Animal Crossing already lined up for next year...and more publishers/indies embracing the platform seems....weird.
Not saying that its impossible...but the market would have change quite fast for the Switch being not a viable product anymore. Nintendo teams will go out on Switch after they have seen what for software sales are possible with them targeting gamers....there are still a bunch of Nintendo IPs that havent made the jump to HD yet. Luigis Mansion 3 for example is an obvious choice...
To all saying that in theory the Switch has the potential of 3DS + Home console numbers, not to try and be the herald of possible bad news, but that's both a bold claim to have and not necessarily a good thing for Nintendo imo.
In that case, you sell 1 piece of hardware instead of 2, and 1 piece of software instead of two as well in many cases.
Now historically if we look at "gens" (not sure if it's all that relevant anymore, with hw makers releasing whenever that's convenient, even with a half step in between) we are looking at
N64 + Game Boy Color - 33m + 55m (est) = 88m units
Gamecube + Game Boy Advance - 21m + 81m = 102m units
Wii + DS - 101m + 154m = 255m units
WiiU + 3DS - 13m + 66m = 79m units
Those are impressive to very impressive numbers (particularly the Wii/ DS era obviously) but again they mask the obvious elephant in the room: all the people who bought both a home console and a portable, won't have the need to do so here (which is great for consumers in many ways).
But we also might (emphasis on might) be actually looking at half sales, so somewhere around 40-50m units if the console does well, the 80-100m figure being the pipe dream Wii / DS - like era figures.
Or am I completely off and the portable buyers do not buy home consoles and vice versa?
My thoughts about Nintendo is they've made themselves a secondary Console. There's just far too many huge 3rd party games that won't come to the switch.
The hardcore Nintendo fans will support it no doubt. Problem is once that support dries up where's the support come from? No Cod or Destiny or Red dead Redemption etc I think it's gonna be a tough uphill battle.
Yeah, you can clearly see that they learned from their 3DS/WiiU lineup woes and are planning on having a solid release per month.Yea, Nintendo aren't going to magically run out of IP's, that's one thing we know for sure. We still have huge system sellers like Smash, Pokémon, Animal Crossing, 2D Mario, and a new Mario Kart that may still release on Switch on top of plenty of older IP's that can be revived.
side note, we don't know that Prime and Pokemon are next year. I know the NOA guy said 2018 but I doubt even internal Nintendo is sure at this point.
And AC hasn't even been announced yet.
I think there's a decent chance 2/3 or even 3/3 make 2018, but "already lined up for next year" is bad wording.
that being said, i think 2018 will have plenty of big games that haven't been announced yet.
Depending on the length of the lifecycle I'd have to think Nintendo would be very happy with 50-60 million sold. That would likely be higher than the X1 and should ensure they are profitable, especially with Amiibo, Mobile, and Software selling on a system with a decent install base.
Counter argument. Mario Kart Wii has sold more than any COD, Destiny or Red Dead game.
the audience being drawn towards japanese third-party games and sprite/retro titles is going to give it a different makeup versus other platforms. i imagine it will be like the 3ds in that regard. no one would say the 3ds is an unsuccessful platform - aside from comparing it to its predecessor, but it has a pretty unique library among all the 8th gen platforms.
Wonder when the shopping season starts if clueless parents walk into the stores and see all the Xbox one X $500! Signs everywhere not knowing any better and simply say screw that and buy their kid a PS4 or switch?
The Switch is selling at about the same pace as the Wii, if I'm not mistaken...
You're mistaken. It's not even selling at the same pace as the PS4. Even without the supply issues, I don't think it would be setting any sales records either, but it's definitely selling well which is all that matters. Nintendo just need to sort this issue out and capitalise on the hype before it dies down though.
"3ds and vita" software list only having 3ds games will never stop being funny.
that's not a counter argument.
not that the other poster made much sense either.
that's not a counter argument.
not that the other poster made much sense either.
You're mistaken. It's not even selling at the same pace as the PS4. Even without the supply issues, I don't think it would be setting any sales records either, but it's definitely selling well which is all that matters. Nintendo just need to sort this issue out and capitalise on the hype before it dies down though.
No one wants to downplay the importance of 3rd party games. They are extremely important as evidence by the Wii U having some of the worse droughts for a console. Also sales for Bomberman, Disgea 5, and Snake Pass say otherwise. People aren't just buying Nintendo games for the thing(when FIFA, Skyrim, and NBA2K come out that will show).Is what I said really hard to comprehend? Simply put If you buy a switch you're pretty much relegated to Nintendo games only. You'll miss all big 3rd party games That's fine for die hard Nintendo fans.
That's a tough sell for the average consumer. Which is why I said Switch will be a secondary Console for many. I'm not sure why people downplay the importance of 3rd party games.
Switch is going to crush 50 million, its $300 with Wii U ports and they cant make them fast enough, what do you think is going to happen when cheaper revisions come bundled with Pokemon or Animal Crossing?
Yeah I meant this year since honestly the PS4 is still of course selling really well but if the Switch had stock it would not be far off.No it's not.
The problem is you are defining "existing console owners" as "The average consumer".You'll miss all big 3rd party games That's fine for die hard Nintendo fans.
That's a tough sell for the average consumer.
I'm wondering what evidence you have for your statement
I wouldn't hold my breath. And I have yet to see them ever discount anything to reasonable prices, fast.
This is Nintendo we're talking about here.i expect the Switch to stay $300 for a couple years, with them stacking value of some sort.
I wouldn't hold my breath. And I have yet to see them ever discount anything to reasonable prices, fast.
This is Nintendo we're talking about here.i expect the Switch to stay $300 for a couple years, with them stacking value of some sort.
I think the idea of Nintendo's next system not being a fully backward compatible Super Switch is mistaken. The only major video game change in the horizon, VR, could be realized one more powerful Switch iteration.
You're mistaken. It's not even selling at the same pace as the PS4. Even without the supply issues, I don't think it would be setting any sales records either, but it's definitely selling well which is all that matters. Nintendo just need to sort this issue out and capitalise on the hype before it dies down though.
I'd say 2020 is when Switch passes XB1.How many years till Switch surpasses Xbone sales?
Speaking of 3DS, how have its sales been since the Switch launched? Has it plummeted, or is it still humming along quietly at its same end of life pace? If it's following Japan it would be the latter, but obviously it won't necessarily follow those trends.
GameCube says hi. And that's just the one example that immediately came to mind.
Speaking of 3DS, how have its sales been since the Switch launched? Has it plummeted, or is it still humming along quietly at its same end of life pace? If it's following Japan it would be the latter, but obviously it won't necessarily follow those trends.
GameCube says hi. And that's just the one example that immediately came to mind.
Counter argument. Mario Kart Wii has sold more than any COD, Destiny or Red Dead game.
I probably should have explained myself better. The other poster was arguining that Switch was going to hit a ceiling of users due to not having big third party games. Nintendo's first party games have sold better than most third party games when they're on top of their game. Check out a list of the best selling games of all time. Nintendo's published over half of the top 50 best selling games of all time.
Is what I said really hard to comprehend? Simply put If you buy a switch you're pretty much relegated to Nintendo games only. You'll miss all big 3rd party games That's fine for die hard Nintendo fans.
That's a tough sell for the average consumer. Which is why I said Switch will be a secondary Console for many. I'm not sure why people downplay the importance of 3rd party games.
Speaking of 3DS, how have its sales been since the Switch launched? Has it plummeted, or is it still humming along quietly at its same end of life pace? If it's following Japan it would be the latter, but obviously it won't necessarily follow those trends.
"3ds and vita" software list only having 3ds games will never stop being funny.
side note, we don't know that... Pokemon (is) next year
Just thought I'd throw out there that no video game franchise is bigger than Mario, and no video game character has more global recognition than Mario.
And not every potential video game consumer wants to shoot things. A lot of them in fact are put off by all the shooters and violent action games on PS4 and Xbox One.
Not even Pikachu? Or are you not counting that as a character?Just thought I'd throw out there that no video game franchise is bigger than Mario, and no video game character has more global recognition than Mario.
What about League of Legends, Minecraft and GTA? Brand wise I would say there not far behind.Just thought I'd throw out there that no video game franchise is bigger than Mario, and no video game character has more global recognition than Mario.
We label that table "Portable". I think Nirolak labels it "3DS and Vita" for clarity.
pls don't ruin this.
How many years till Switch surpasses Xbone sales?
What % down is "humming along quietly" and what % down would be "plummeted"?
And not every potential video game consumer wants to shoot things. A lot of them in fact are put off by all the shooters and violent action games on PS4 and Xbox One.
What about League of Legends, Minecraft and GTA? Brand wise I would say there not far behind.
Uh, more than 30% decline YOY is plummeting? I don't really know. I'm mostly just curious as to how the Switch affected the 3DS, if at all. I expect it to be down either way since it's old and doesn't have a lot of major software coming out, but it's holding steady in Japan, so maybe it's doing better than I expect.
”Year to date, hardware spending has grown 19 percent versus 2016 to $1.4 billion," said Piscatella. ”The Nintendo Switch has been the catalyst for year-to-date growth. But portable hardware spending continues to decline. Year-to-date, spending on portable hardware has fallen 40 percent."