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[KillerMan91]

switch is having a better start than either one of those platforms (at least ps3), so that shouldn't be an issue. thanks to its hybrid nature, it'll also be easier to sell more than one to one household, and revisions could target the more traditional handheld base as well, especially with lower price point. i think we'll see a switch mini earlier than a switch pro.

3DS also had far better first FY than PS3 or X360 and yet it didn't get anywhere near numbers of X360 or PS3 in the end.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

switch is having a better start than either one of those platforms (at least ps3), so that shouldn't be an issue. thanks to its hybrid nature, it'll also be easier to sell more than one to one household, and revisions could target the more traditional handheld base as well, especially with lower price point. i think we'll see a switch mini earlier than a switch pro.

You think Switch will do 85M+ LTD?

 

[NSESN]

3DS also had far better first FY than PS3 or X360 and yet it didn't get anywhere near numbers of X360 or PS3 in the end.

It should end around 70 million, it's not that far.

 

[Fiendcode]

3DS also had far better first FY than PS3 or X360 and yet it didn't get anywhere near numbers of X360 or PS3 in the end.

3DS isn't finished yet and it's not all that far off (66m to 85m). With a solid release lineup and even a new revision ahead of it the system might end up pretty close when all's said and done.

 

[KillerMan91]

It should end around 70 million, it's not that far.

Both X360 and PS3 should be around 90 million. 20 million is decent gap.

 

[AniHawk]

3DS also had far better first FY than PS3 or X360 and yet it didn't get anywhere near numbers of X360 or PS3 in the end.

the big difference in my eyes is that in america it's doing much better at the onset. nintendo had to rush games and do a pretty insane price cut to get the 3ds off the ground in a major way. sales never actually improved after the first two or three years either - they just sort of stayed the same.

You think Switch will do 85M+ LTD?

it really depends how quickly units can get out there plus how many they can sell. this thing is going out the door at a pretty good rate at $300 with no games included. start putting out bundles, drop the price below $200 - this thing should have legs.

2017: 10m
2018: 16m
2019: 18m
2020: 17m
2021: 12m

if it does something like that, then a couple twilight years as a legacy platform while its successor does its thing could get it above 80m pretty easily, yeah.

 

[Liabe Brave]

The way it's written is a bit confusing because it also says monthly and then the table says month. I'm guessing that's the average weekly sales per month?

Sorry I wasn't entirely clear, I thought the size of the numbers would make it obvious they weren't for entire months. I've edited the post to make the comparison more explicit.

Now they cannot go from one day to another and increase production and then expecting twice the amount of systems in store the next week. Things like that take time.

Going by other non-gaming supply chain schedules I'm familiar with, about 6-8 months for new production to hit shelves. (I don't know how typical those numbers are, though.) The issue, though, is that Nintendo have already projected that this same production level will continue until March of 2018. Unless they change that soon, it appears increased manufacturing is off the table for now.

At the same time, it doesn't make much sense to set up a new production line to double production in order to meet short-term demand, only to be left with excess supply after that initial demand is met. Such investments need to be carefully examined to avoid failure.

Right now, their production is capping them to about 60% of PS4's level, despite multiple indicators of heavy demand, user engagement, and cultural relevance. Doubling may not be in order, but a significant increase would be very safe.

 

[thestopsign]

The thing is I don't know what's going to be the catalyst for Switch. Would the likes of refreshing traditional IPs and new ones like Splatoon pulled Switch to reach 3ds 22M+ numbers in Japan? How would the rest of the world fare? Then there's this pricey accessories and higher msrp to take account to. I omitted online fees because well gamers seem not to mind them as much and it's only $20 on Switch.

The catalyst is good hardware design and Nintendo delivering on quality titles. Also for a console that has been out for 5 months already, there is a lot that we don't even know of about its future.

A good virtual console system including GameCube games is a killer app. A mainline console Pokémon that is hopefully the next evolution of the series is a killer app. Nintendo using brand synergy with mobile games, theme parks, and other media sources to push people to buy their systems is a killer app.

The MSRP hasn't been a factor yet as most see it as a good value proposition at this point. I see a lot of people point to accessory prices as a deterrent, but they are not something an average consumer considers when making a purchase up front. They see a versatile high definition console/handheld that can be taken anywhere for their kids, that instantly has two player and can be set up for their needs.

 

[KillerMan91]

the big difference in my eyes is that in america it's doing much better at the onset. nintendo had to rush games and do a pretty insane price cut to get the 3ds off the ground in a major way. sales never actually improved after the first two or three years either - they just sort of stayed the same.

I mean Switch is seen as much better value than 3DS early on and sales reflect that but question for me is that is this just 3DS owners buying it earlier or is there new demographics in the play. If it's former it could be pretty frontloaded and if it's latter then it should have more traditional life cycle.

 

[Fiendcode]

Both X360 and PS3 should be around 90 million. 20 million is decent gap.

3DS is going to pass 70m this fall. It's end total will be higher.

 

[LordRaptor]

3DS isn't finished yet and it's not all that far off (66m to 85m). With a solid release lineup and even a new revision ahead of it the system might end up pretty close when all's said and done.

Its not inconceivable that a Pokemon Go bump + cheap N2DS + Switch supply shortages will see "3DS" (no longer 3D of course) overperform expectations this year

 

[alt27]

the big difference in my eyes is that in america it's doing much better at the onset. nintendo had to rush games and do a pretty insane price cut to get the 3ds off the ground in a major way. sales never actually improved after the first two or three years either - they just sort of stayed the same.



it really depends how quickly units can get out there plus how many they can sell. this thing is going out the door at a pretty good rate at $300 with no games included. start putting out bundles, drop the price below $200 - this thing should have legs.

2017: 10m
2018: 16m
2019: 18m
2020: 17m
2021: 12m

if it does something like that, then a couple twilight years as a legacy platform while its successor does its thing could get it above 80m pretty easily, yeah.

Lack of third party will hit the later year sales big time. WIll still be successful, but it wont be as big as you are predicting imo

 

[Zalman]

Lack of third party will hit the later year sales big time. WIll still be successful, but it wont be as big as you are predicting imo

If they end up making it a family of systems, with a more portable version being an option that fully replaces the 3DS, I could see it hit those numbers.

 

[KillerMan91]

3DS is going to pass 70m this fall. It's end total will be higher.

Eh. Looking at how quickly Nintendos consoles tend to die after the successor is released I predict 3DS will be pretty much dead after this FY. Yes it should cross 70 million but not much more. Have we actually gotten any information from NPD about how 3DS has faired after Switch release?

 

[AniHawk]

Lack of third party will hit the later year sales big time. WIll still be successful, but it wont be as big as you are predicting imo

lack of third party will be a major thing only if the current userbase doesn't get tired of the current kinds of offerings. considering people are down for indie games and traditionally more niche japanese games, the system's library is probably going to be fine in the long run. it's not like the switch is getting call of duty and then not getting call of duty. it's getting a cave story port and a street fighter ii port and those are doing well.

 

[DeuceGamer]

Sorry I wasn't entirely clear, I thought the size of the numbers would make it obvious they weren't for entire months. I've edited the post to make the comparison more explicit.


Going by other non-gaming supply chain schedules I'm familiar with, about 6-8 months for new production to hit shelves. (I don't know how typical those numbers are, though.) The issue, though, is that Nintendo have already projected that this same production level will continue until March of 2018. Unless they change that soon, it appears increased manufacturing is off the table for now.


Right now, their production is capping them to about 60% of PS4's level, despite multiple indicators of heavy demand, user engagement, and cultural relevance. Doubling may not be in order, but a significant increase would be very safe.

No worries. I thought something was off but wasn't exactly sure

Edit:

lack of third party will be a major thing only if the current userbase doesn't get tired of the current kinds of offerings. considering people are down for indie games and traditionally more niche japanese games, the system's library is probably going to be fine in the long run. it's not like the switch is getting call of duty and then not getting call of duty. it's getting a cave story port and a street fighter ii port and those are doing well.

I agree. It seems to be getting similar, or better, support as the 3DS and it done just fine. Also I think it will end up with better western support than 3DS if it sells at a similar rate just because of the more modern tools.

I expect it will end up finishing ahead of Xbox One, but exactly how much really depends on the type of revisions Nintendo release. A handheld only version, at a lower price point should do fairly well and boost sales after another year or so.

 

[Fiendcode]

Eh. Looking at how quickly Nintendos consoles tend to die after the successor is released I predict 3DS will be pretty much dead after this FY. Yes it should cross 70 million but not much more. Have we actually gotten any information from NPD about how 3DS has faired after Switch release?

GBA had to be actively killed off, DS had a piracy/smartphone double whammy against it and GB had basically two distinct lifecycles spanning 3 different decades. The late 3DS resurgence and hybrid successor makes a historical comparison somewhat difficult with Nintendo's older handhelds, and that's even if we say there's any sort of pattern to compare to in the first place (there isn't). I wouldn't be surprised at all if 3DS finished closer to 80m than 70m.

 

[mejin]

switch is having a better start than either one of those platforms (at least ps3), so that shouldn't be an issue. thanks to its hybrid nature, it'll also be easier to sell more than one to one household, and revisions could target the more traditional handheld base as well, especially with lower price point. i think we'll see a switch mini earlier than a switch pro.

It's a fair point and no doubt it's a possibility. I just wouldn't say it'll be an easy task. I lost track of how many revisions 3DS had already with more than 6 years in the market.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I expect the Switch as family of systems to have the by far longest lifecycle of every Nintendo product line rivaling even the Gameboy. The basic setup is just too solid. Even if they just keep up updating the hardware iOS style every 2-3 years and introduce different revisions between those bigger upgrades ala Mini Switch or addons like VR headsets etc.

Their deal with nVidia is a longterm agreements - so everything starting from now should have full BC with every Switch related content. Its the first time in a while that i feel that devs/publishers who are supporting a Nintendo system arent just supporting a console but also are trying be part of a bigger eco-system. Devs will be willing to slowly build up their catalogs like we see on mobile or PC gaming - with games like the SE Old J-RPGs or Capcom with the Backlog Resident Evil titles.

The era of resetting the whole eco system every time to launch new hardware is over for Nintendo. Whatever gets developed and released now should be able to run/work on whatever current Switch iteration Nintendo is selling 3, 5 or 10 years from now.

 

[KillerMan91]

GBA had to be actively killed off, DS had a piracy/smartphone double whammy against it and GB had basically two distinct lifecycles spanning 3 different decades. The late 3DS resurgence and hybrid successor makes a historical comparison somewhat difficult with Nintendo's older handhelds, and that's even if we say there's any sort of pattern to compare to in the first place (there isn't). I wouldn't be surprised at all if 3DS finished closer to 80m than 70m.

Well I guess we shall see. It's not just Nintendo handhelds though. Also their home consoles have had rather swift death after the successor launch (Yes NES had shipments until 2004 but those shipments were ridiculously low). Nintendos problem is the lack of presence in developing world where most of the late gen sales are made.

 

[LordRaptor]

Well I guess we shall see. It's not just Nintendo handhelds though. Also their home consoles have had rather swift death after the successor launch (Yes NES had shipments until 2004 but those shipments were ridiculously low).

Successor consoles that have hardware BC with previous consoles provide an easy upgrade path transition. There is currently zero overlap between Switch and 3DS libraries.

 

[Purest 78]

My thoughts about Nintendo is they've made themselves a secondary Console. There's just far too many huge 3rd party games that won't come to the switch.

The hardcore Nintendo fans will support it no doubt. Problem is once that support dries up where's the support come from? No Cod or Destiny or Red dead Redemption etc I think it's gonna be a tough uphill battle.

 

[Fiendcode]

Well I guess we shall see. It's not just Nintendo handhelds though. Also their home consoles have had rather swift death after the successor launch (Yes NES had shipments until 2004 but those shipments were ridiculously low). Nintendos problem is the lack of presence in developing world where most of the late gen sales are made.

NES and SNES didn't have swift deaths at all, both had software launches for years and even console revisions after their successors had launched. Meanwhile N64, GC and Wii U all arguably died even before their successors had launched. Again, you're arguing a pattern of behavior where there really is none and even if there was the specific context 3DS finds itself in makes any direct comparison difficult.

The closest platform to 3DS comparably is probably GBA (iterative handheld with a divergent successor, strong post-successor software releases, post-successor hardware revision) but even that's not perfect due to GBA's truncated lifecycle and the late term 3DS boom.

 

[AniHawk]

My thoughts about Nintendo is they've made themselves a secondary Console. There's just far too many huge 3rd party games that won't come to the switch.

The hardcore Nintendo fans will support it no doubt. Problem is once that support dries up where's the support come from? No Cod or Destiny or Red dead Redemption etc I think it's gonna be a tough uphill battle.

i think you can number diehard nintendo fans by the people who bought a wii u. those were people who were fine with a luxury nintendo item to go next to their 3ds. i really don't think that's the hard upper-limit considering just how supply-constrained it's been worldwide.

current third-party games that have been doing well: cave story, the binding of isaac, bomeberman, disgaea 5, snake pass, ultra street fighter ii, puyo puyo tetris. the switch doesn't need big western third-party game to interest its growing audience. it just needs games. as time goes on, bigger third-party support is going to come in the form of 3ds and vita style games, as well as family-oriented titles, and both things are already happening.

 

[alt27]

i think you can number diehard nintendo fans by the people who bought a wii u. those were people who were fine with a luxury nintendo item to go next to their 3ds. i really don't think that's the hard upper-limit considering just how supply-constrained it's been worldwide.

current third-party games that have been doing well: cave story, the binding of isaac, bomeberman, disgaea 5, snake pass, ultra street fighter ii, puyo puyo tetris. the switch doesn't need big western third-party game to interest its growing audience. it just needs games. as time goes on, bigger third-party support is going to come in the form of 3ds and vita style games, as well as family-oriented titles, and both things are already happening.

I think alot of those games are doing well because theres nothng else to buy basically. The system is very young and people want something other than Zelda and mario kart.

In 5 years time I will be interested to see its attach rate compared to PS4 for example

 

[AniHawk]

I think alot of those games are doing well because theres nothng else to buy basically. The system is very young and people want something other than Zelda and mario kart.

In 5 years time I will be interested to see its attach rate compared to PS4 for example

regarding the attach rate, i expect it to be lower than most consoles. maybe higher than n64 and wii u, but due to the nature of handhelds being historically under 5:1, i wouldn't expect a lot more than that. maybe 7:1 (so over 500m units of software sold for a platform hitting 75m).

as for the other point - there was nothing really to buy on 3ds either and people weren't snapping up whatever they could. instead the system limped along from first-party game to first-party game until the end of the year aside from kingdom hearts. the switch is making big deals out of smaller titles now. the people who are trying new things are going to become fans of these games and seek more of them out as time goes on. it's going to lead to some unexpected growth in games and companies who found success there early.

 

[sense]

regarding the attach rate, i expect it to be lower than most consoles. maybe higher than n64 and wii u, but due to the nature of handhelds being historically under 5:1, i wouldn't expect a lot more than that. maybe 7:1 (so over 500m units of software sold for a platform hitting 75m).

as for the other point - there was nothing really to buy on 3ds either and people weren't snapping up whatever they could. instead the system limped along from first-party game to first-party game until the end of the year aside from kingdom hearts. the switch is making big deals out of smaller titles now. the people who are trying new things are going to become fans of these games and seek more of them out as time goes on. it's going to lead to some unexpected growth in games and companies who found success there early.

3ds didn't have a hugely popular Zelda at launch followed by a planned release schedule like Mario kart, splatoon 2 etc... pushing people to adopt the system early either. As soon as people pick up the system, they do want to pick up other titles to complement Zelda in March, Mario kart in April etc...

Isn't it possible that the 10-12 million that adopted the Wii U are the ones that are picking up the switch early this time around? Of course with this potentially being a 3ds replacement as well, I am sure it will do a lot better than the Wii U and probably reach around 50-60 million at the minimum. I just don't think it will do much better than 3ds numbers and reach the 75-100 million bracket yet with just Japanese niche games and indies. You need solid third party support for it to not be looked at as a secondary console. Also this doesn't have many media capabilities as well so that might hurt as well.

 

[cw_sasuke]

My thoughts about Nintendo is they've made themselves a secondary Console. There's just far too many huge 3rd party games that won't come to the switch.

The hardcore Nintendo fans will support it no doubt. Problem is once that support dries up where's the support come from? No Cod or Destiny or Red dead Redemption etc I think it's gonna be a tough uphill battle.

And yet many Switch owners dont have issues spending as much if not more time on their Switch. Sure massive games like Battlefront CoD missing are an issues early on - but that what expected coming from the WiiU and the fact that the system is still new/not just another PS4.

One thing i can tell you for sure though is that 3rdParties will keep bringing their games over if its a) feasible on a technical level and b) worth it economical.

Its always easy to dismiss a plattform by saying that game X and Z arent on it, but at the same time big IPs like Skyrim, Minecraft, Fifa, Rocket League and co. in addition to Nintendos first party lineup classify for many people as "big games".

I dont see a scenario where (assuming the games we are getting are selling) - where devs/pubs ignore a successful system/eco system and more powerful Switch iterations make it easier to release upcoming games for that system as well.

This doesnt mean that every big games will be on Switch - hell eben Xbox One misses out on alot of good content that is on PC or PS4 but the mainstream hits as in CoD or Battlefront will be discussed for Switch if the systems keeps selling.

The system is just about to sell 5 million units, thats nothing....but this time i can actually see the "gamer" software being released on that platform selling food enough to make a case for supporting this platform. The performance of Zelda, MK, Arms and now Splatoon shows that they are targeting gamers - unifying Nintendo console and handheld owners of the past.

Switches "gimmick" of being able to play all content on the go or on the big screen is far more valuable to the traditional gamers than dual screen, touchscreen, Gamepad etc. were...which is why we are seeing these type of software sales and people wanting everything to hit Switch if possible,

Funny thing is that Switch already is a success story even though its limited by shortages.

They are building up the first party software catalogue quite fast and 2018 is already looking very solid.

Smash Bros. DX ( more or less a given)
Fire Emblem
Pokemon
Animal Crossing (a given since the mainseries skipped WiiU and they want mobile player to "Upgrade"
Prime 4

...thats leaving out other potential Series like Pikmin or Luigis Mansion. Also speculated for next year would be a more compact Switch that would allow them to slowly retire the 3DS. Which makes considering that Animal Crossing and Pokemon are titles that target a bigger but also younger demographics - so having a cheaper Switch out by that time is likely their goal, depending on when Pokemon hits.

Well the main point is having confidence in a system and its eco system. If i start working on a game now i wanna be sure that the system im developing it for will not only be around 2-3 years from now but also relevant (just look at those Skyward Sword Wii sales) - that is something that will always be the case for the standard systems (PC/PS/XB/Mobile) and that Nintendo will have to address with Switch as well.

Same way that developers putting their games out on Switch wanna be able to sell that content for years on current and future Switch hardware - with more and more games going for the Service route its a must, i dont see we would have Rocket League on Switch if the devs didnt believe in the longterm viability of that platform.

I think alot of those games are doing well because theres nothng else to buy basically. The system is very young and people want something other than Zelda and mario kart.

In 5 years time I will be interested to see its attach rate compared to PS4 for example

If thats indeed the case...and it very well could be the reason for many purchases. At the same time we had cases like the WiiU were people didnt buy the games even if there wasnt much going on either.

The fact that this argument is being brought up already says alot about the appeal of the system....everything is Entertainment related is connected nowadays and competing for money/time. I dont think there are many customer groups that would buy games they arent interested in because there is nothing else to buy....they would rather spend that money on other systems, hobbies or just save the money. Even if thats the case...the point that there are many people willing to spend money on games doesnt change if there were better games out there - so they would spend money on Resident Evil 7 or Persona 5 instead of Cave Story or Bomberman if these devs had brought those games to Switch.

I know many WiiU owners that really didnt touch anything but Nintendos first party games....on Switch its different i see alot of people that would buy all kind of games on Switch, even if it meant a small downgrade compared to the more powerful system.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I think Switch will land in the 30M-50M range. A significant improvement over Wii U that Nintendo will deem highly successful (I imagine the profits will be pretty hefty overall).

I'm just not sure how it will go out. Aren't the legs on Nintendo home consoles usually on the low end? I also think the software well will dry up in the later half. Nintendo will carry the Switch on their own for the most part but I just think it is tough to do that for an entire gen and go beyond 50M or so.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

I think Switch will land in the 30M-50M range. A significant improvement over Wii U that Nintendo will deem highly successful (I imagine the profits will be pretty hefty overall).

The only way it lands on the low end of this range is if Nintendo never drops the price and/or releases no revisions.

 

[Instro]

I think Switch will land in the 30M-50M range. A significant improvement over Wii U that Nintendo will deem highly successful (I imagine the profits will be pretty hefty overall).

I'm just not sure how it will go out. Aren't the legs on Nintendo home consoles usually on the low end? I also think the software well will dry up in the later half. Nintendo will carry the Switch on their own for the most part but I just think it is tough to do that for an entire gen and go beyond 50M or so.

It doing worse than the 3DS would likely be a major failure for the company.

 

[Oregano]

The only way it lands on the low end of this range is if Nintendo never drops the price and/or releases no revisions.

and demand disappears overnight in Japan.

 

[KillerMan91]

Successor consoles that have hardware BC with previous consoles provide an easy upgrade path transition. There is currently zero overlap between Switch and 3DS libraries.

Well that can help somewhat with expanding the lifespan but I am not sure how much. PS1 shipped over 30 million units after PS2 launch despite PS2 having full BC with PS1 games when N64 died pretty much immediately after CG launch despite GC having no BC at all. Of course 3DS has already shown it's not exactly N64 but still. I guess only way to find out is to see next few quarter reports from Nintendo and how did Switch launch affect shipments of 3DS in west.

NES and SNES didn't have swift deaths at all, both had software launches for years and even console revisions after their successors had launched. Meanwhile N64, GC and Wii U all arguably died even before their successors had launched. Again, you're arguing a pattern of behavior where there really is none and even if there was the specific context 3DS finds itself in makes any direct comparison difficult.

The closest platform to 3DS comparably is probably GBA (iterative handheld with a divergent successor, strong post-successor software releases, post-successor hardware revision) but even that's not perfect due to GBA's truncated lifecycle and the late term 3DS boom.

NES and SNES didn't have as swift deaths as their Nintendo successors but really not that huge post gen sales either. I mean NES lived until 2004 but if we really look at the shipments it shipped only 2 million units between 1993 and 2004. Over 10 years across. PS1 shipped 2.77 million units during its last year until Sony stopped the production.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

NES and SNES didn't have as swift deaths as their Nintendo successors but really not that huge post gen sales either. I mean NES lived until 2004 but if we really look at the shipments it shipped only 2 million units between 1993 and 2004. Over 10 years across. PS1 shipped 2.77 million units during its last year until Sony stopped the production.

In most parts of the world, NES really only lived until late 1994. From 1991 (when SNES launched in NA) to 1994, it had a nice sunset.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I think Switch will land in the 30M-50M range. A significant improvement over Wii U that Nintendo will deem highly successful (I imagine the profits will be pretty hefty overall).

I'm just not sure how it will go out. Aren't the legs on Nintendo home consoles usually on the low end? I also think the software well will dry up in the later half. Nintendo will carry the Switch on their own for the most part but I just think it is tough to do that for an entire gen and go beyond 50M or so.

This post would make sense if Switch was a traditional homeconsole that would have to share the upcoming software lineup with the more cheaper and popular handheld brother...which wont be the fact this time.

I also dont see why the software support would just dry up if the system is successful....what else would Nintendo devs work on ? The fact that handheld oriented series like Animal Crossing, Pokemon and Fire Emblem will hit Switch next year in addition to games you would expect on a homeconsole ala Prime 4 says it all. Nintendos first party out, focused on one main system isnt something that can just be brushed off like that. Only way your scenario happens if that people just stop caring about Nintendo games and portable gaming in general.

 

[LordRaptor]

PS1 shipped over 30 million units after PS2 launch despite PS2 having full BC with PS1 games when N64 died pretty much immediately after CG launch despite GC having no BC at all

Nintendo have traditionally been very bad at transitioning userbases, with many of their consoles (handhelds included) marked with long end of life droughts on one end, and long post-launch droughts at the other.

It seems so far that their restructuring should alleviate that in future; they have enough of a software lineup to gracefully wind down the 3DS line instead of what would once have been basically a year of nothing with a semi-big title swansong final release, and they have a solid lineup on the Switch side of things which should allow for the N3DS model to chug along with a few more price cuts and some recolours for at least another year, while internal development moves entirely to Switch and begin transtioning 3DS only owners over with pricecuts and possibly alternate hardware revisions next year.

 

[joe_zazen]

3ds didn't have a hugely popular Zelda at launch followed by a planned release schedule like Mario kart, splatoon 2 etc... pushing people to adopt the system early either. As soon as people pick up the system, they do want to pick up other titles to complement Zelda in March, Mario kart in April etc...

Isn't it possible that the 10-12 million that adopted the Wii U are the ones that are picking up the switch early this time around? Of course with this potentially being a 3ds replacement as well, I am sure it will do a lot better than the Wii U and probably reach around 50-60 million at the minimum. I just don't think it will do much better than 3ds numbers and reach the 75-100 million bracket yet with just Japanese niche games and indies. You need solid third party support for it to not be looked at as a secondary console. Also this doesn't have many media capabilities as well so that might hurt as well.

That is what makes predictions problematic as you have both the Nintendo home console enthusiasts and the portable enthusiasts snapping up a system with severe supply constraints. It makes solid predictions, as Mat eloquently wrote, not possible. Demand might fall off a cliff or it might stay at wii++ levels.

All I know is that Switch sales is a great story and fun to follow. And if I had to bet, I'd predict it will sell whatever the lifetime totals for wiiu + 3ds are.

 

[DeuceGamer]

3ds didn't have a hugely popular Zelda at launch followed by a planned release schedule like Mario kart, splatoon 2 etc... pushing people to adopt the system early either. As soon as people pick up the system, they do want to pick up other titles to complement Zelda in March, Mario kart in April etc...

Isn't it possible that the 10-12 million that adopted the Wii U are the ones that are picking up the switch early this time around? Of course with this potentially being a 3ds replacement as well, I am sure it will do a lot better than the Wii U and probably reach around 50-60 million at the minimum. I just don't think it will do much better than 3ds numbers and reach the 75-100 million bracket yet with just Japanese niche games and indies. You need solid third party support for it to not be looked at as a secondary console. Also this doesn't have many media capabilities as well so that might hurt as well.

Depending on the length of the lifecycle I'd have to think Nintendo would be very happy with 50-60 million sold. That would likely be higher than the X1 and should ensure they are profitable, especially with Amiibo, Mobile, and Software selling on a system with a decent install base.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

This post would make sense if Switch was a traditional homeconsole that would have to share the upcoming software lineup with the more cheaper and popular handheld brother...which wont be the fact this time.

I also dont see why the software support would just dry up if the system is successful....what else would Nintendo devs work on ? The fact that handheld oriented series like Animal Crossing, Pokemon and Fire Emblem will hit Switch next year in addition to games you would expect on a homeconsole ala Prime 4 says it all. Nintendos first party out, focused on one main system isnt something that can just be brushed off like that. Only way your scenario happens if that people just stop caring about Nintendo games and portable gaming in general.

Well, making games is expensive and it takes time. Once the expected titles are out of the way, what do they do to sustain things from there? I mean, PS4 and X1 aren't sharing software with a cheaper handheld and they have/had blank periods with first party/exclusives where they had to rely on third party support.

There will be dry periods and it will be too difficult to maintain high levels of software (that are capable of pushing hardware) year after year and Nintendo doesn't have the major third party support to help carry the load.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying this means Switch will do bad. I'm saying I don't see how they go considerably above the range I gave in this situation.

 

[Elandyll]

To all saying that in theory the Switch has the potential of 3DS + Home console numbers, not to try and be the herald of possible bad news, but that's both a bold claim to have and not necessarily a good thing for Nintendo imo.

In that case, you sell 1 piece of hardware instead of 2, and 1 piece of software instead of two as well in many cases.

Now historically if we look at "gens" (not sure if it's all that relevant anymore, with hw makers releasing whenever that's convenient, even with a half step in between) we are looking at

N64 + Game Boy Color - 33m + 55m (est) = 88m units

Gamecube + Game Boy Advance - 21m + 81m = 102m units

Wii + DS - 101m + 154m = 255m units

WiiU + 3DS - 13m + 66m = 79m units

Those are impressive to very impressive numbers (particularly the Wii/ DS era obviously) but again they mask the obvious elephant in the room: all the people who bought both a home console and a portable, won't have the need to do so here (which is great for consumers in many ways).

But we also might (emphasis on might) be actually looking at half sales, so somewhere around 40-50m units if the console does well, the 80-100m figure being the pipe dream Wii / DS - like era figures.

Or am I completely off and the portable buyers do not buy home consoles and vice versa?

 

[LordRaptor]

That would likely be higher than the X1

I think the only reason "doing better than Xbox 1" should be relevant is that "doing better than the X1" would make it impossible for third parties to ignore.

Or am I completely wrong and the portable buyers do not buy home consoles and vice versa?

That depends on whether you consider the group "People who might buy a dedicated gaming device" is limited to "people who have previously bought a static gaming device" and "people who have bought a mobile gaming device".

If that group is actually larger and also contains "People who would have bought a portable gaming device if it was closer to the capabilities of a static gaming device", and "People who have never bought a gaming device" and "People who have not bought a gaming device recently" then you can't look at historic sales as an absolute ceiling.

 

[Fiendcode]

Well that can help somewhat with expanding the lifespan but I am not sure how much. PS1 shipped over 30 million units after PS2 launch despite PS2 having full BC with PS1 games when N64 died pretty much immediately after CG launch despite GC having no BC at all. Of course 3DS has already shown it's not exactly N64 but still. I guess only way to find out is to see next few quarter reports from Nintendo and how did Switch launch affect shipments of 3DS in west.

NES and SNES didn't have as swift deaths as their Nintendo successors but really not that huge post gen sales either. I mean NES lived until 2004 but if we really look at the shipments it shipped only 2 million units between 1993 and 2004. Over 10 years across. PS1 shipped 2.77 million units during its last year until Sony stopped the production.

Did you actually look at the data you posted earlier? NES shipped ~15m after SNES launch and SNES shipped ~9m after N64 launch. Neither was a "swift death" and proportionately they're not far off from that PS1 figure you brought up. And again, the system that's actually most comparable to 3DS (GBA) also shipped ~30m after it's successor (DS) launched. You're still just arguing a pattern that doesn't exist.

 

[Man God]

PS1 had a second life shipping to countries that Nintendo and Microsoft just have no real foothold in. Sony continued that on with the PS2 and to a lesser extent the PS3. If it happens again with the PS4 then it will really boost its late gen success.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Well, making games is expensive and it takes time. Once the expected titles are out of the way, what do they do to sustain things from there? I mean, PS4 and X1 aren't sharing software with a cheaper handheld and they have/had blank periods with first party/exclusives where they had to rely on third party support.

There will be dry periods and it will be too difficult to maintain high levels of software (that are capable of pushing hardware) year after year and Nintendo doesn't have the major third party support to help carry the load.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying this means Switch will do bad. I'm saying I don't see how they go considerably above the range I gave in this situation.

Is there any reason you arent expecting any type of 3rdParty support ? Your post makes it look like Nintendo will be the only supporter of the system no matter how well it does. When the last months have shown that many devs/pubs are willing to support the system if the success is here. People shitted on Fifa Switch without knowing anything about the version, same for Skyrim or Rocket League...or Ubisoft involvement with MarioxRabbids but pretty much all we have heard from those 3rdParty games after hands-on time have been positive and there are enough people looking to pick them up. You think Ubi or Bethesda will just ignore the Switch after their initial games are a success ? And it might not have worked out for this year but im sure Activision right now is looking into how they could bring CoD to the system for the 2018 release.

The release plans for this year were more or less set in stones 12-18 months ago for most publishers - the positivity surrounding the Switch reveal, the strong hardware/software sales during launch and continued high demand will have a strong effect on what we will see next year.

And yeah if the "expected" titles are out of the way the studios work on new games...i mean what else is there to do ? Kimishima already said that they have lots of stuff cooking and the release schedule shows a clear strategy. Expect them to introduce more new IPs ala Splatoon and ARMS once the expected evergreen are released on the system. I mean we are still getting nice surprises on 3DS after 6 years so i think Nintendo will manage to produce more new content on Switch after 24 months.

If there is one thing i dont worry about on Switch after these first couple months is first Party support. Once you have Mario, Zelda and Mario Kart on the team you dont need a big hit every month to sustain software sales....people will be buying the system because its the only way to play current iterations of those series.

Like if somone buys a Switch early 2018 it doesnt really matter what is being released this month if he is already interested in like 5 games that were released this year.

 

[DeuceGamer]

Well, making games is expensive and it takes time. Once the expected titles are out of the way, what do they do to sustain things from there? I mean, PS4 and X1 aren't sharing software with a cheaper handheld and they have/had blank periods with first party/exclusives where they had to rely on third party support.

There will be dry periods and it will be too difficult to maintain high levels of software (that are capable of pushing hardware) year after year and Nintendo doesn't have the major third party support to help carry the load.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying this means Switch will do bad. I'm saying I don't see how they go considerably above the range I gave in this situation.

If Nintendo is only supporting one console in the future they should be able to avoid droughts. It seems like the Switch toolset has allowed Nintendo a much shorter software pipeline based on what we've seen so far.

Also, they will get some Third Party Support. I expect Konami is working on another title after Super Bomberman R sold beyond their expectations and based on some comments they have made. Capcom, Square, Level 5, Platinum, Ubisoft, NIS, Koei Tecmo, Namco Bandai, Atlus, etc... all are likely to release titles in the future with a lot of them already having titles announced. Nintendo may or may not get the Western AAA titles but they won't have to support the system single handidly.

 

[KillerMan91]

Nintendo have traditionally been very bad at transitioning userbases, with many of their consoles (handhelds included) marked with long end of life droughts on one end, and long post-launch droughts at the other.

It seems so far that their restructuring should alleviate that in future; they have enough of a software lineup to gracefully wind down the 3DS line instead of what would once have been basically a year of nothing with a semi-big title swansong final release, and they have a solid lineup on the Switch side of things which should allow for the N3DS model to chug along with a few more price cuts and some recolours for at least another year, while internal development moves entirely to Switch and begin transtioning 3DS only owners over with pricecuts and possibly alternate hardware revisions next year.

Well I guess we will see. I just think that bigger factor in rather fast death for Nintendos platforms is lack of industry wide third party support (at least after SNES) and lack of presence in developing markets. I mean percentage wise 3DS probably will have slower death than DS because of lack of BC and Nintendo extending their support for it but still I have hard time to see it selling much after this FY. Switch is replacing it as their main handheld. We will see if I have to eat crow after few quarter reports.

Did you actually look at the data you posted earlier? NES shipped ~15m after SNES launch and SNES shipped ~9m after N64 launch. Neither was a "swift death" and proportionately they're not far off from that PS1 figure you brought up. And again, the system that's actually most comparable to 3DS (GBA) also shipped ~30m after it's successor (DS) launched. You're still just arguing a pattern that doesn't exist.

I did. With your 15 million figure you are making mistake by combining all those NES figures from SNES launch year. For example proper European launch for SNES was FY 1992 despite that chart showing 300k units shipped for FY 1991 (have to check out where they shipped those). That already would take 4.35 million units off from that 15 million figure (NES is probably only console peaking during its last year in Europe lol). I don't know were you calculated your 9 million SNES figure because with that same flawed method I got around 6.9 million. Looking at SNES launch dates that should be actually pretty close to real number (maybe million off) but nevertheless while better post gen numbers than for N64 or GC still nothing to write home about.

 

[jroc74]

To all saying that in theory the Switch has the potential of 3DS + Home console numbers, not to try and be the herald of possible bad news, but that's both a bold claim to have and not necessarily a good thing for Nintendo imo.

In that case, you sell 1 piece of hardware instead of 2, and 1 piece of software instead of two as well in many cases.

Now historically if we look at "gens" (not sure if it's all that relevant anymore, with hw makers releasing whenever that's convenient, even with a half step in between) we are looking at

N64 + Game Boy Color - 33m + 55m (est) = 88m units

Gamecube + Game Boy Advance - 21m + 81m = 102m units

Wii + DS - 101m + 154m = 255m units

WiiU + 3DS - 13m + 66m = 79m units

Those are impressive to very impressive numbers (particularly the Wii/ DS era obviously) but again they mask the obvious elephant in the room: all the people who bought both a home console and a portable, won't have the need to do so here (which is great for consumers in many ways).

But we also might (emphasis on might) be actually looking at half sales, so somewhere around 40-50m units if the console does well, the 80-100m figure being the pipe dream Wii / DS - like era figures.

Or am I completely off and the portable buyers do not buy home consoles and vice versa?

I think this is a good point.

If we can assume overlap with Wii U and 3DS users..3DS numbers might be the best to hope for, anything over that just a pleasant surprise.

Wild card is those that didn't get the Wii U. Either those that have PS4, XBO, or those that stuck with the Wii.

 

[Vena]

I think Switch will land in the 30M-50M range. A significant improvement over Wii U that Nintendo will deem highly successful (I imagine the profits will be pretty hefty overall).

I'm not sure if 30M is a statistical possibility (of sorts) unless you expect a major global decline in Pokemon sales. This is what you're working with:

At the ~30M range, you'd be expecting a 33-66% attach rate on Pokemon. I don't think that's particularly reasonable in the long term LTDs. Pokemon has been fairly stable as a franchise, usually reaching a fairly reliable 15M to sniffing towards 20M whether that be the DS or the 3DS. And its rates are something like 25% (on the highest end) and under.

Yes, Zelda (and possibly Splatoon) are going to have some absurd attach rates early on, but titles like Animal Crossing and Pokemon just don't particular make sense with these supposed needed attach rates across the audience, especially with these titles leaning much more towards casual play/children or specific interests of audiences not usually into core gaming. We're not even going to see these audiences show up in numbers for some time, and I'd posit that the Switch is well on its trajectory to eclipse 30M as is with Pokemon and AC as nothing more than figments on the horizon.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Switch is going to crush 50 million, its $300 with Wii U ports and they cant make them fast enough, what do you think is going to happen when cheaper revisions come bundled with Pokemon or Animal Crossing?

 

[DeuceGamer]

I think this is a good point.

If we can assume overlap with Wii U and 3DS users..3DS numbers might be the best to hope for, anything over that just a pleasant surprise.

Wild card is those that didn't get the Wii U. Either those that have PS4, XBO, or those that stuck with the Wii.

They also now have additional income from mobile and amiibo's to help supplement any loss in revenue. If they sell around 3DS numbers I'd expect they will be just fine with the added revenue of mobile and Amiibo.