That's great but aren't we disscussing video games sales? I understand Mario is huge but that doesn't necessary mean game sales case in point WiiU.
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That's great but aren't we disscussing video games sales? I understand Mario is huge but that doesn't necessary mean game sales case in point WiiU.
LordRaptor
Member
I would imagine his statement is based on measurable data and quantifiable metrics than more wooly things like "mindshare", and there are multiple software titles with "Mario" in the title, and multiple toys and accessories of the various Mario characters.
GTA is at one game per generation, Minecraft has its base product and the Telltale spinoff, with a few toys that weirdly skew towards Youtubers rather than the game itself, and LoL has little to no retail presence at all.
No one doubts Mario is the most popular franchise (isnt that stating the obvious?), but it doesnt always guarantee to sell serious amounts of hardware either.
Once they get their supply issues sorted, it will be interesting to see where the sales settle into.
I hadn't considered that.
Because so far we've seen the console oriented franchises talked about.
3D Mario, 3D Zelda, Splatoon, Pokken, Yoshi (mostly console oriented), 4 player Kirby is obv console oriented, MP4, Xenoblade, etc
And you're saying that the Heavy Hitter portable focused franchises coming later might be due to seeking the portable audiences and having people buying multiple switches. Which of course you need stock for.
gundamkyoukai
Member
GTA is more than one game per gen ( we had 3 during PS2 gen and 2 during PS3)
It just that GTAV is such a monster in sales and online that they are in no rush to make another right now.
Mario selling multiple toys and accessories are great but that don't mean it going to push hardware like we have seen with Wii U and 3DS in a way .
MatPiscatella
Member
My point was that just because it doesn't have some of the big 3rd party franchises, Switch has enough content already out and coming to make it a sales success.
This is a bit self-evident when looking at the market conditions.
It's really hard to take posts seriously when they downplay the size or importance of Mario as a video game franchise.
As an alternative take: 3rd parties weren't huge on Wii, but Wii sold amazingly well. 3rd parties weren't huge on Wii U, Wii U did not do as hot. 3rd parties are not yet huge on Switch, Switch is selling amazingly well.
History suggest that 3rd party support is a nice to have, but that alone doesn't make or break a system. If you're arguing that it is, this argument is probably coming from your individual personal perspective about what you would like to see for your own purchase decision. Which is fine. But anyone posting on GAF is part of the very core gaming niche of players and potential social circle influencers. You don't represent the mass market of gamers.
This is a bit self-evident when looking at the market conditions.
It's really hard to take posts seriously when they downplay the size or importance of Mario as a video game franchise.
As an alternative take: 3rd parties weren't huge on Wii, but Wii sold amazingly well. 3rd parties weren't huge on Wii U, Wii U did not do as hot. 3rd parties are not yet huge on Switch, Switch is selling amazingly well.
History suggest that 3rd party support is a nice to have, but that alone doesn't make or break a system. If you're arguing that it is, this argument is probably coming from your individual personal perspective about what you would like to see for your own purchase decision. Which is fine. But anyone posting on GAF is part of the very core gaming niche of players and potential social circle influencers. You don't represent the mass market of gamers.
Well this is part of the reason for integrating their handheld/console divisions. They owned handheld space but are a no player really in the home console space. Switch enables them to tap into both markets. More specifically it enables them to keep their handheld dominance and not feel like they are throwing away their console market. Trying to keep a standalone console market alive for Nintendo is nigh impossible now. I'll add that I say this knowing they won't move into a tech parity model; if they did I think they'd have more success as a standalone console.....or would have if they hadn't chosen to do online voice chat they way they have
So by integrating they can succeed with all the handheld games that make those types of gaming machines popular, whilst putting out occasional (And often amazing) first party games geared towards the "console experience'.
Apart from the third party thing, I think the worry for me is that they are still apparently supporting 3DS so splitting their teams somewhat anyway, which in the end means more remakes to fill the gaps which is something I don't really want. I can play a lot of old Nintendo games (Wii U, Wii, GameCube) already on an emulator with much better graphics.
Miniature Kaiju
Member
Gaming-wise, only Pokémon approaches GTA. GTA is the game everyone buys when they get a new console, no matter how long since it was released - that's how it hasn't failed to chart so far this gen.
No one is really doubting or downplaying Mario as a franchise (its the biggest as you have said), but it didnt help them shift WiiUs, Gamecubes or N64s in massive numbers.
Its just interesting to see where switch sales numbers will settle after all these supply issues are sorted out
NintendosBooger
Member
Wii U wouldn't have broken 2 million without Mario or its spinoffs. And as much as everyone harps about GTAV, it wouldn't have single-handedly helped the Wii U alone, either.
well you know how ps3 got just dance but the association stuck with wii even well after the 7th gen ended? or how people paired cod and 360 last gen. it cultivates a certain userbase that allows certain games to thrive. i would even say vita and visual novels are a good example of this. just because they're on ps4 doesn't mean there is a big enough audience willing to play them and in turn it isn't going to bring more like it to the platform.
the difference starts turning one system into the best place to get one kind of game. you might have disgaea and cave story on other platforms too, but switch is the place where you can get both. nicalis and nisa in particular are already taking advantage of this and other indies and third parties are benefitting from it without really trying.
LordRaptor
Member
During the PS2 gen Bill Cosby was a beloved and respected entertainer, its pointless pretending that thats still the case.
Anyone got units sold for GTA V? Whatever it is I'm sure it's tiny when you put it into perspective of how many people are in this world.
gundamkyoukai
Member
What is your point ?
Even if we don't get one this gen it don't matter since GTAV will sell over 50 million plus easy .
Along with loads of money from GTA online they would be crazy to rush and bring out another one .
If we talking about the power of a IP that is one matter if we talking about game sales that is another .
LiquidSolid
Member
I don't think he's saying the Switch won't get any third party support, just that it'll get outsourced table scraps and, as a result, they won't be a selling point. Sure, the gimmick isn't as much of a barrier to entry as Nintendo's previous gimmicks were but we're still talking about a large specs gap between the current target min spec (the Xbox One) and the Switch. Most publishers aren't going to dramatically change their pipeline because of the Switch, even if it somehow outsold the PS4. And with the Pro and One X on the market, I think we're likely to see multiplatform games get even more demanding, with 900p PS4 games and 720p Xbox One games becoming a lot more common.
As far as Switch LTD predictions go, I'm sticking with the one I came up with before launch: Upper end of the range between the Gamecube and 3DS, so somewhere between 50-60 million.
No. I'm a Pokemon fan and it does have good legs but GTAV is a whole other beast. It's not even remotely close.
joe_zazen
Member
Minecraft is definately bigger amongst certain age groups, and for some it's not just a game but a lifestyle. But once you factor in over 20's, then Mario wins hands down.
GTA comparisons got me thinking: no world leader is going to dress up as Nico Bellic or Trevor to pimp for the next Olympic games, well mabey Putin .
GTA comparisons got me thinking: no world leader is going to dress up as Nico Bellic or Trevor to pimp for the next Olympic games, well mabey Putin .
OrbitalBeard
Member
Unfortunately, this is something the majority of GAF will never understand, for some reason.
NintendosBooger
Member
It isn't just GAF. Come this Fall, the NPD chart will be full of them.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Uh, I wasn't even remotely implying shooters aren't popular.
NintendosBooger
Member
Didn't say you were, but the sentiment with which you seem in disagreement is reflective of the industry and market as a whole and not particular to GAF.
Square2015
Member
^Thank you. This. An actual numbers question.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Nah, not really. The industry is larger than just M-rated titles, but many on GAF have a tendency to believe that a platform can only be seen as a true success if these titles are a major part of it. And it's simply not the case.
Humdinger
Member
Good point. People often make it sound as if 3rd party support is the key to success for Nintendo consoles.
I have never really understood that, personally. Nintendo consoles are always considerably less powerful than the Xbox or PlayStation. Why would you bother playing multiplatform games on a Nintendo console (unless that were your only console)?
The key to success for Nintendo consoles are Nintendo games. That's what makes or breaks them. The Switch is doing very well in that area, so far.
However, I do think 3rd party games could play a bigger role with Switch than they have with previous consoles. That's because of the portability factor. It's an appealing option, to be able to play [insert major 3rd party game] on the road. That's not something you can do with the PS or Xbox. I think that makes 3rd party games a more powerful sales factor (potentially, anyhow) than they were on previous Nintendo consoles.
Cool, and that's before we get into Pokemon Go comparison months. Unless the 2DSXL picks up a lot of slack, should accelerate through the rest of the year. Seems like Switch is replacing the dedicated handheld in Nintendo's thinking, so it'll be sad to see the end of 2-screen portable gaming.
phantasmic_glaive
Member
3DS launched at $250 in 2011.. $200 in 2017.
In my comment I acknowledged the stacking of value through revisions, but it's the same damn system.
I feel you on GameCube, but it still doesn't give me confidence about their future pricing strategies.
Gotdatmoney
Member
The 2DS was like $99 though.
I don't think 3rd party will definitively determine whether the Switch succeeds or fails. Nintendo first party IP is what ultimately attracts consumers and gets Nintendo's products into their hands, but the amount of 3rd party support definitely has an effect on the degree of success. When you have a greater palette of genre representation and other popular IPs represented on your hardware, you naturally open yourself to a larger potential player base.
Having said that, I don't think the first 12 months of the switch's third party situation at all reflects what the following years will bring, though the Switch's form factor will naturally limit it compared to the software pipeline that has been built around the Xbox and PS4 over the past four years. I think the early popularity of the Switch will at the very least give Nintendo more opportunities to do what they have been doing lately - collaborating with third parties on exclusives, lending out IP, creating unique versions of popular IP that take advantage of the Switch's strengths, etc.
Getting multiplatform titles will be nice, but the narrative of getting the weakest version is something that is simply unavoidable, so the more Nintendo can have 3rd parties create exclusive content that plays to the strengths of portability and local multiplayer, the better they can leverage the multiplatform releases they do get.
Boombloxer
Member
Please point to another home console aside from the Wii that pushed 100M units without significant 3rd party support.
It's never the first 10-15M units that are really a problem. It's after that which you can really tell if there's legs or not. So we'll see. At this point I don't really see how it pushes 100M lifetime. 60-70? Sure.
Jaded Alyx
Member
It would if it could. Stock doesn't allow it.
Jaded Alyx
Member
Your mistake is limiting this to home consoles for some reason ( when obviously the Switch is physically a portable, and practically a hybrid).
Gotdatmoney
Member
60-70m puts it at 3DS level. Do we really think this system will sell worse than the 3DS? I find that difficult to believe. It's just crazy how bad the current stock situation is. The 3DS was super weak in NA. The Switch looks like it wont have that issue.
Gaiaknight
Member
you could play 3ds games for $79.99 if you got the original 2ds.
Boombloxer
Member
Not really. It's a home console that can played on the go, and for some games that's not a real option due to battery life. Whereas the DS or 3DS can go on road trips or plane rides; or the iPad/Phone/pod, which beats everything.
Portable sales have been dropping for a long time now, so that's not the most favorable comparison.
Again, 3rd party support still matters for the life of the system. Just because 1 console succeeded without it doesn't mean the next one will.
We'll see where we are in a year from now. Either way, this is a better scenario than the WiiU.
Now they just need to actually make market-priced mobile games.
mejin
Member
Oh come on, now. This month was huge even for PS4.
Its usually not people on GAF outside of the very core platformer fans. Its a series that has a lot of family/children slanted audiences, and you're not going to generally hear said people gossiping about how they beat Champion's Road.
This x 100
Its weird that we even have to explain this on GAF or more specific on Sales-GAF. The success of a Nintendo platform always relies on the First Party output - depending on that output and the systems success the 3rdParty environment will change as well. At the end of the day a big exclusive game will always have more impact on a system that games that can be played on multiple system, thats the main reason why the PS4 is looking so much better than the Xbox for many people this generation.
At the same time people will ignore "big" games like Fifa. Skyrim, Rocket League when they are coming to Switch because it doesnt fit their personal definition or narrative of what a big or important game is. I can tell you that CoD and GTA V could be announced for Switch for next year - you would still see people that would list a couple of games that arent coming to to demonstrate that there is no 3rdParty support.
We have people often argue that the 3rdParty content support since the Cube has been the same on Nintendo platforms. Honestly if you cant see the difference between 3rdParty offering between Cube, DS/Wii or WiiU you shouldnt even bother.
Thats not what he wrote and i doubt thats where the market is headed - obv. games get more demanding all the time but hardware gets more powerful as well. No one is asking or expecting publishers to change their whole development structure because of Switch...but its also not just all Black and White - fact is that most devs/pubs didnt even consider the Switch for their games beforehands. After the WiiU you cant fault them.
Its all about realistic expectations - i think that many people are still underestimating the potential of Switch versions, and that customers are willing to take a graphical hit because of the Switch perks.. Just look at Fifa, Skyrim or Rocket League - if those were standard console releases on a WiiU type systems these games would be DoA coming out so late after the other versions and missing features(thats not the case for RL).
Limiting the Switch to be just another 3DS or WiiU is completely missing the point...it brings stuff to the table that both systems were missing and expanding on it. 3DS sold 70m without any western 3rdParty support, the low spec hardware made it difficult for even Indie games to be ported to the thing ...i mean Minecraft wasnt even on 3DS, even though it would have been the perfect console for that demographic. WiiU was practically dead after 3 months on the market and never recovered.
The important of momentum when launching a system is crucial....the likelihood of a system like Switch selling very well for the first 12, 18 or 24 months and then just cratering when it offers the most feature wise, content wise and is getting the most support is very unlikely. Nintendo knows that it can take up to 2 years for 3rdPartys to have their games on Switch....so they made sure that they could sustain the first 2 years on their own even if they get no outside support at all.
The fact that Nintendo can still sell a 3DS type device 6 years after launch for +150 bucks says it all.
US market results, discussion is skewed toward the US. Mario doesn't carry as much weight in the EU as it does in Japan and the US because gaming wasn't 'saved' by Nintendo following Atari's collapse, and instead there's a completely separate sales history there.
OrbitalBeard
Member
That's nice. You're in a US sales thread though.
Just on the point of 3rd-party games, I think there is a qualitative difference, looking at the home consoles of the past 3 generations:
Wii - Series like Call of Duty or say, Dead Rising, see release but in many cases are heavily downgraded from their PS360 counterparts. Other major series like Assassin's Creed or Grand Theft Auto see no release. Later generation AAA titles in particular are very scarce, perhaps since they were pushing the PS360 quite hard already.
WiiU - Seemingly heavy (particularly western) third-party support out of the gate (Deus Ex, Call of Duty, Watch Dogs, Yakuza 1/2 HD, Assassin's Creed) with relative parity to last-gen versions or new PS4/XO versions, quickly drops off and never recovers.
Switch - Timid (Japanese) third-party support (Bomberman, I Am Setsuna, Dragon Quest Heroes, Koei-Tecmo history sims) with a smattering of indies. Essentially zero non-Japanese AAA games since launch, and none announced for the future aside from those which still release on last-gen systems (FIFA) or which are remasters of last-gen games (Skyrim). Rocket League is popular to be sure, but it is no GTA in terms of relevance in the third-party space. There's an obvious difference between the AAA third-party offering on Sony and even Microsoft (Destiny, Doom, Final Fantasy, Call of Duty, GTA, Red Dead, Mass Effect, Yakuza, Assassin's Creed, Ghost Recon, Dragon Quest, NieR, Prey, Deus Ex, Hitman, etc.), compared to what Nintendo is getting.
So more than saying "they're all the same in terms of support", it's more like they've always had the worst offering of third-party games unless you really hone in on a very specific subset of Japanese titles, many of which tend to also be available on PS4 and/or PC. What's more, this selection only seems to have gotten more narrow as time goes on, and it means that Nintendo home systems are all the more dependent on first-party output to stay afloat. That first-party output can be great, even amazing, but the pertinent question is if it can maintain a reasonable progression outside of the first year.
In many ways Sony has it easy in that regard--it's the market leader of course, but that means that even if the next Uncharted game is hot garbage, PS4 sales aren't going to tank significantly for months, because all the AAA games for console gamers are primarily on that system. It's really just icing on the cake and added value when the exclusives are good (NioH, Last of Us, Persona, Horizon, Yakuza, etc.).
Jaded Alyx
Member
It is physically a portable. Look at it. You can use it solely as a home console, but it is physically a portable.
It's battery life is also on par with 3DS so I don't see what you're trying to say.
Liabe Brave
Member
Your ranking is incorrect. PS3 has a higher tie ratio and has sold more units of software than Wii overall. Unfortunately, Microsoft does not publish these numbers so we don't know exactly how much 360 software has been sold. From announced tie ratios we know it was above PS3 for a while, though. If that's still the case (or perhaps even if not), then it's also above Wii in absolute units.
Switch shipped 2.74m in March. We won't know until Wednesday how many they actually shipped over the quarter ending in June. But if we assume the ratio of US sales:total shipments stayed the same, then they shipped about 2m more. So at the end of four months (17 weeks), Switch has shipped a little under 4.75m.
How does that compare to other Nintendo systems? The direct shipment numbers in what follows are from Nintendo financial reports; my adjustments are simple prorating.
GBA shipped 9.58m in the first six months (26 weeks; 27 in Japan). We need to reduce these numbers to match Switch's sales period, so we prorate weekly sales separately for the two regions. This gives us total shipments of 6.52m in 17 weeks.
Wii shipped 3.19m in the first two months (6 weeks). At the end of five months (19 weeks), it was at 5.84m. Adjusting this figure down to 17 weeks puts it at 5.43m.
DS shipped 2.84m in the first two months (6 weeks). At the end of five months (19 weeks), it was at 5.27m; adjusting to 17 weeks puts it at 4.90m.
3DS shipped 3.61m in the first month (5 weeks Japan, 1 week elsewhere). Only 710k were shipped in the following three months (13 weeks). We need to add a further 3 weeks outside Japan, but also adjust Japan down by 1 week. The final 17-week estimate is 4.42m shipped.
As far as I'm aware, all other Nintendo platforms launched slower than this. That leaves three Nintendo systems that launched faster than Switch: GBA, Wii, and DS. Amazingly, the highest of these also does not have a holiday included in its numbers. (Neither does 3DS, though it seems to be a little below Switch.)
As for other platforms, Xbox One shipped 3.9m in its first two months (6 weeks). At the end of five months (19 weeks), 5.1m had been shipped. Adjusting down to 17 weeks puts it at 4.92m. PS4 shipped 4.2m in its first two months (6 weeks). At the end of five months (19 weeks), it was at 7.5m. Adjusting to 17 weeks puts it at 6.99m.
So Switch is currently the sixth-fastest launch of all time. Soon, it'll pass Xbox One launch-aligned, and likely stay ahead. It will probably never catch any of the other four platforms in front of it.
Jon Carter
Member
I assume you've already been asked that question at some point, but why is NPD counting Switch as a home console and not a portable system? Does it mean, as far as NPD is concerned, that the portable market will die in the near future?
I mean...if you compare stuff like this you have be somewhat reasonable. You list the handful of 3rdParty games that have been available on Switch in its first couple weeks...but have to list every big games that PS4/XBO did get on their +3 years on the market to prove a point ? I mean come on. No one is arguing that these systems, especially the the PS offer much more 3rdParty content. But it took years for games like Mass Effect, FF, Persona or Red Dead to show up ...some like RDR2 or KH3 arent even out. Some of the biggest games this gen are also based on old gen games and Remasters/Ports like GTA V, Skyrim Remastered or the first Destiny.
Every big Japanese publisher is supporting the Switch and we know that series like Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, Tales Of. SMT and co. are headed into that direction.
But thats not even the point...if your main argument is that because the 3rdParty support on Nintendo console XY is worse than on Playstation that all is bad...i can understand it but i dont think its a solid base for sales/potential discussion. Yeah GTA V is bigger than Rocket League....that doesnt mean that having RL on Switch doesnt improve the 3rdParty offerings on Switch. And even if Rockstar announced GTA V for Switch in 2018 - there will still be plenty of other games that wont be on Switch. Thats just how it is, but that wont stop from 3rds to make money of the system if its a success.
That's weird for me too. From a hardware point, it is much more a portable system than a console. Not refering (just) to the power here, but the unit itself.
You could remove the dock out of the package and it would be still fully playable. Now try the same by only selling the dock. ;-)
If the TV-out would be done just by putting a HDMI cable into the system without the dock, it would've even the exact same feature set and noone would call it a home console.
So I surely would've chosen the portable category for it, if I had to decide. Portability is the main selling point of the Switch as well.
It will be weird seeing the portable category die when we clearly have a strong performing portable system on the market. And another thing: What happens if Nintendo releases a Switch "HH-only" revision?
At this point it is doubtful that Nintendo releases a new seperate HH with its own games library.
biglittleps
Member
I feel same, and have referred this many times in other threads where people call it as home console and compare it with other home consoles instead handheld in sales when it is just an handheld with a output to TV, and also people buy this because of portability as major selling point.