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February 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 11

S

shinra-bansho

Member
[360] 325K
[3DS] 180K
[PS3] 250K
[PSV] 35K
[WIU] 55K

Further to JVM's post, 190K for PS3 and 170K for 3DS are what I get from pixel counting Nintendo's fiscal graph.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
jvm said:
Edit 2: Microsoft's momentum into the new year is pretty good, especially considering that the $50-off deal ended the first week in January. Average price in November was $227, followed by $246 in December and then $255 in January.
Click to expand...
Can you share ASP for the PS3 and Wii U? I'm curious what the "real" price differential is between the systems at this stage.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
jvm said:
Sure!

Code: 
          Nov    Dec    Jan
Xbox 360: $227   $246   $255
     PS3: $238   $274   $282
   Wii U: $338   $340   $342
Click to expand...
Thanks. :)

Interesting; so the few buying Wii U's are overwhelmingly buying the $350 Premium. I wonder if the Zombi U bundle will drive up the ASP this month.

PS3 sales are presumably split more evenly between the $270 model and the $300 model.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
See these ASPs are why i think the generation stagnated so much. Of course this is better for MS and Sony's bottom line, but these systems are way overdue for a price cut.
 
D

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
metalslimer said:
See these ASPs are why i think the generation stagnated so much. Of course this is better for MS and Sony's bottom line, but these systems are way overdue for a price cut.
Click to expand...

Honestly it seems insane to me. I had no idea that the PS3 and Wii U ASP were that close now.

Seems like Sony's decision to essentially raise the price on the PS3 wasn't as bad as most people thought. Not sure why they would price cut at any point before the holidays now.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
darkside31337 said:
Honestly it seems insane to me. I had no idea that the PS3 and Wii U ASP were that close now.

Seems like Sony's decision to essentially raise the price on the PS3 wasn't as bad as most people thought. Not sure why they would price cut at any point before the holidays now.
Click to expand...

It does make me wonder though. Are core gamers really tired of this generation, or are they the only thing keeping the current consoles going and the more casual gamer is fed up with the pricing on these consoles? Which then makes me wonder is launching new expensive consoles really going to help the declines we've been seeing. Couple that with possible 70 dollar games and if pricing is the reason the industry is having difficulties and we could see some nasty drops this time next year as well. Sorry for going a little OT though.
 
D

DaBoss

Member
metalslimer said:
It does make me wonder though. Are core gamers really tired of this generation, or are they the only thing keeping the current consoles going and the more casual gamer is fed up with the pricing on these consoles? Which then makes me wonder is launching new expensive consoles really going to help the declines we've been seeing. Couple that with possible 70 dollar games and if pricing is the reason the industry is having difficulties and we could see some nasty drops this time next year as well. Sorry for going a little OT though.
Click to expand...

People buying a console now are entirely different people than the ones who buy consoles at launch or higher prices.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
DaBoss said:
People buying a console now are entirely different people than the ones who buy consoles at launch or higher prices.
Click to expand...

For some yes, but what about the new "core" market that is continually forming as younger people get older? I mean otherwise launch numbers would stay stagnant and there wouldn't be the "record breaking launch". What I'm worried about is the cost of this hobby becoming too exclusive and shrinking the market even further/sending potential new gamers running away.

[360] 350K
[3DS] 220K
[PS3] 250K
[PSV] 60K
[WIU] 170K
Click to expand...
Er.....
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
"[WIU] 170K"

lolwut?

-----

I expect an HDD-less PS3 SKU out this year to drive the entry price sub-$200, while remaining profitable on HW. The new model seems to have gone over well in Europe.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Thanks. :)

Interesting; so the few buying Wii U's are overwhelmingly buying the $350 Premium. I wonder if the Zombi U bundle will drive up the ASP this month.

PS3 sales are presumably split more evenly between the $270 model and the $300 model.
Click to expand...

I wonder if that says anything about a complete failure on Nintendo's part to attract any casual gamers to the system...

I guess it all depends on whether there's a direct correlation between the sales of the Basic units and casual gamer adoption. I presume that casuals opt for the cheaper option when presented, but there's no data to back that claim.

Rinj von Scoot said:
[360] 350K
[3DS] 220K
[PS3] 250K
[PSV] 60K
[WIU] 170K
Click to expand...

You're going to have to justify that claim. February is generally a stronger sales month, but the Wii U has been doing SO terribly lately, and there was only ONE game released in the entire month for the system, and it's a 4-week reporting month, and it has marketing + brand issues that still haven't been resolved...so 170K is quite a stretch.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Aquamarine said:
I wonder if that says anything about a complete failure on Nintendo's part to attract any casual gamers to the system...

I guess it all depends on whether there's a direct correlation between the sales of the Basic units and casual gamer adoption. I presume that casuals opt for the cheaper option when presented, but there's no data to back that claim.
Click to expand...
I don't think the "casual" userbase is necessarily averse to paying higher sums if they see the appeal. Ridiculous Wii prices due to shortages and the Kinect bundles going for $300+ attest to that.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
shinra-bansho said:
I don't think the "casual" userbase is necessarily averse to paying higher sums if they see the appeal. Ridiculous Wii prices due to shortages and the Kinect bundles going for $300+ attest to that.
Click to expand...

I question how much of that userbase will move to any console in the future with 199 tablets and free games and 99 cents apps that have a lot of functionality to them.
 
A

AranhaHunter

Banned
Just did some quick calcs.

PSV - 7k per week in January, January pro rated for 4 weeks = 28k
WiiU - 11.4k per week in January, January (4 weeks) = 45.6k OR 80k if you want to take the assumed raw number without accounting the returns
3DS - 29k per week in January, January pro rated for 4 weeks = 116k
PS3 - 40.2k per week in January, January pro rated for 4 weeks = 160.8k
360 - 56.2k per week in January, January pro rated for 4 weeks = 224.8k

February is usually 20-40% larger than January, giving the range

PSV = 33.6k - 39.2k
WiiU = 54.72k - 63.84k or 112k if you want to take the high end for the raw numbers
3DS = 139.2k - 162.4k
PS3 = 192.96k - 225.12k
360 = 269.76k - 314.72k

shinra-bansho said:
I expect an HDD-less PS3 SKU out this year to drive the entry price sub-$200, while remaining profitable on HW. The new model seems to have gone over well in Europe.
Click to expand...

16GB (12 usable) would go pretty bad in the US. Maybe if (when?) it gets introduced here it will be a 32GB(28 usable). That would be a little more acceptable for an entry level model. I actually fully expect that to happen, maybe by Gamescom.
 
G

GulAtiCa

Member
[360] 250k
[3DS] 150k
[PS3] 175k
[PSV] 40k
[WIU] 100k

Ranked Wii U a little high compared to the avg do to Feb usually doing better (esp if the return thing is true). I think the ZombiU bundle is also doing decently. I only say that base upon it's result in the eShop weekly buy trend. Since it comes with a download code for Nintendoland, and those download copys count in the rankings. Currently ranked #4 with Runner 2 only just passing it.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
I'm guessing Sony are waiting for 32GB to be cheap enough to get a sub-$200 model giving a good profit.

----

I'm not sure if "up in Feb" necessarily always applies - particularly early in the gen? Of course things like shortages may be in effect for certain platforms like the Wii and 360 at launch.

Jan -> Feb 2007 weekly averages
PS3: 48.8K -> 31.8K
Wii: 87.2K -> 83.8K
360: 58.8K -> 57K

Jan -> Feb 2006
360: 62.3K -> 40.3K
 
M

michaelius

Banned
[360] 380k
[3DS] 160k
[PS3] 320k
[PSV] 40k
[WIU] 40k

//Some of those January 100k Wii U needs to be returned in February too ;)
 
UberTag

UberTag

Member
[360] 202k
[3DS] 73k
[PS3] 130k
[PSV] 22k
[WIU] 38k

No sales for anybody.

My all-too-likely to be wrong software sales ranking predictions...

1) Dead Space 3
2) Crysis 3

A rare double-win for the evil EA empire... yet all too misleading as both titles will severely under-perform the launch sales of their previous installments.

3) Aliens: Colonial Marines

Soon to be a popular find in most used game bins.

4) Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance

Platinum makes the Top 10. Hallelujah!

5) Call of Duty: Black Ops II
6) Far Cry 3
7) NBA 2K13
8) Just Dance 4

More of the same from the usual suspects.

9) Something that will make everyone go OMG WTF BBQ - either Fire Emblem: Awakening (despite supply challenges, hardware bundles not counting and this being a multi-SKU chart) or the unadvertised Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time

10) Halo 4
 
D

Drago

Member
[360] 260K
[3DS] 190K
[PS3] 210K
[PSV] 40K
[WIU] 60K

Really excited for the Feb. NPD, but more for game sales than anything. Hoping FE: Awakening did really well, and that Sly 4 didn't totally crater :(
 
C

Cheech

Member
[360] 260k
[PS3] 190k
[3DS] 130k
[WIU] 35k
[PSV] 20k

I think my 360 prediction is optimistic, but who knows. I know typically February's sales are stronger, but I think we are going to start to see sales seriously slip as we get closer to the next gen.

Also, dedicated gaming handhelds will not match the ups and downs of the other consoles, as they continue to get annihilated by Apple.
 
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