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[Eusis]

Black Ops 2 was already down over MW3 in its first month. However, its legs were a lot better. Even if the COD games don't sell records, if they continue to sell more in a month than 95% of AAA titles sell in their lifetimes, Activision will continue to pump them out.

I can see the baton being passed this generation though. Maybe not this year, but in another year or two as new IPs are established.

Yeah, it'll probably be more like a gentle decline rather than the bottom falling out as the case was with Guitar Hero, and will probably stablize into something they can profit off of yearly. Which is fine to me, I just didn't want CoD practically dictating design for half the games out there.

 

[Aquamarine]

It's not PR, it's Q&A for analysts and investors. Besides, after MW3 and BLOPS 2, you need more data before you can say COD has "declining momentum." At least let GHOSTS launch... at least. He gave an honest accounting of the game's sales potential with the most measurable and relevant data possible at this point: pre-orders. He also cited some other metrics and qualified them.

I know exactly what it is...I read the entire conference call.

That doesn't mean particular elements of the call can't be dressed up. They don't have any obligation in the call to tell us 100% the whole story.

Consider the following excerpt:

As one might expect in this console transition year, pre-orders for Call of Duty: Ghosts are well below the record-setting pace set by Call of Duty: Black Ops II last year. However, our quantitative consumer research indicates that hesitation amongst past club preorders is primarily due to not knowing which platform they will be playing on, which is natural at this time in the console transition.

It's worth mentioning that Ghosts preorders are over double those of Call of Duty: Black Ops, which is the last time we launched a new sub-brand for the franchise. It's also worth mentioning that our other key engagement metrics from the number of people playing per month to the number of people playing daily to DLC sales, to video views, to community engagement are all significantly ahead of past years. We also have in place the most aggressive marketing retail and digital programs in the history of the franchise. We've made substantial investments to make Ghosts a showcase for the next-gen consoles and also the best current-gen Call of Duty title ever. (Credit: Seeking Alpha)

Generic terms like "Substantial investments" and "Aggressive marketing" and a quick deflection to compare it against an old Call of Duty title show me that Mr. Hirshberg is acting under the same operations as a PR agent would.

I do genuinely believe the Call of Duty series is showing issues with maintaining its record-setting momentum.

For example:

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/183066/

The most telling proof about my "PR" claim is the fact they didn't touch on these issues with momentum at all.

 

[shinobi602]

A rare moment we can share in the hype. I have been on Destiny crack since the earliest hints of its existence.

Pretty much my most anticipated game after Mass Effect 4 (name pending?) and Witcher 3. *fistbump*

 

[-COOLIO-]

this is the year of battlefield for sure. next gen graphics seals the deal.

 

[Wynnebeck]

What does that have to do with anything?

Multiplatform TitanFall!

.

 

[lantus]

Just let this franchise wither away people, maybe then we can actually get something new and interesting out of IW.

 

[Papercuts]

So they have higher daily/monthly CoD players and even if preorders are under BO2 it's still double BO1, and the next gen system preorder waiting is likely hitting it a bit.

I expect a drop but not nearly what some in this thread seem to hope for. Though, did 2 really outsell the original black ops that much? Seems kinda crazy.

 

[kittens]

.

Then say that rather than trotting out a tired meme.

 

[Wynnebeck]

Then say that rather than trotting out a tired meme.

Conversation over!

 

[DR2K]

I think Destiny will be bigger than any Halo, but fall short of being a CoD replacement. We'll see in a few years.

 

[Eusis]

this is the year of battlefield for sure. next gen graphics seals the deal.

Anyone who follows it would have more reason really: more players, and large arenas at (hopefully) 60 FPS. It's basically showing next gen consoles can match PCs and will offer a (mostly) new experience on consoles whereas CoD will be... CoD, collapsing skyscraper stage aside anyway.

 

[GetemMa]

It's finally happening.

People are finally figuring out that COD is the same god damn thing every year.

It only took 5 years but I will take it.

 

[Snakeyes]

Could the reign of the military shooter finally be nearing its end?

 

[shinobi602]

Could the reign of the military shooter finally be nearing its end?

Talk about hyperbole, come on son.

 

[Monocle]

I don't think anything associated with Destiny has made me sit up and go "that's cool." Even Halo 4's pre-release media gave me a few of those moments. Right now Destiny just looks bland. The only reason I haven't abandoned all hope of finding something interesting about it is the fact that this is a Bungie project.

Could the reign of the military shooter finally be nearing its end?

No, and I say this as someone who doesn't care for military shooters.

 

[Sorcerer Supreme]

Game looks amazing.

The proper successor to SOCOM II.

Don't ever speak of SOCOM II's name again.

 

[aceldama]

Anyone who follows it would have more reason really: more players, and large arenas at (hopefully) 60 FPS. It's basically showing next gen consoles can match PCs and will offer a (mostly) new experience on consoles whereas CoD will be... CoD, collapsing skyscraper stage aside anyway.

Yeah, because more players and an unnoticeable framerate change is what the franchise needed. The games are already way too crowded for any enjoyment. 4vs4 is the max any of these games need to go.

 

[crazy buttocks on a train]

So what you're saying is... you want the conversation to be over?

kekekekekeke

 

[Cutebrute]

They must have not seen Titanfall.

Can we retire this now? Please??

 

[kittens]

kekekekekeke

What are you doing posting like a normal person? Megatons or GTFO.

 

[polyh3dron]

Yeah it's not because they Guitar Hero'd the CoD property (all the way down to giving it to a former Tony Hawk dev to churn out), it's customer uncertainty of the platform they'll be gaming on.

 

[Sub_Level]

Yeah, because more players and an unnoticeable framerate change is what the franchise needed. The games are already way too crowded for any enjoyment. 4vs4 is the max any of these games need to go.

6 vs 6 maybe. 4 vs 4 is a damn ghost town (no pun intended)

 

[CorrisD]

I wouldn't be surprised at people not pre-ordering due to the new platforms, my friends and I who have pre-ordered and gone the midnight launches for the last few years haven't done so this year because of the new consoles coming out. That and we have gotten quite tired with the series with this last iteration, so much broken and op stuff you can only take so much of it for so long, but hey, we will probably get Ghosts at some point.

 

[RiccochetJ]

Yeah it's not because they Guitar Hero'd the CoD property (all the way down to giving it to a former Tony Hawk dev to churn out), it's customer uncertainty of the platform they'll be gaming on.

I honestly don't think the fatigue will happen with COD like it did with the plastic instrument market. However, I can easily see that happen with Skylanders though.

 

[vazel]

Can we retire this now? Please??

My favorite rule at SA is the no catchphrases/memes rule.

 

[SJRB]

I still don't see how Destiny is supposed to be a 1 billion dollar franchise.

Don't get me wrong - I loved what they showed during E3, but do they really have to quantify a game by constantly smearing that title on it? It's almost the game's tagline, for Christ's sake; Destiny - the 1 billion dollar franchise.

It makes the game feel dirty.

 

[Syph Medwes]

Unbelievably hyped for Destiny. Can't wait to see what Bungie does.
The COD news doesn't surprise me. Treyarch now has the crown with the Black Ops series. Infinity Ward post-MW2 is a shell of its former self. It was really prevalent in the quality of the maps in MW3. Decent game, but a step down.

 

[ZedIndyLil]

Why would they talk about preorders in an investor call? Setting expectations?

 

[Eusis]

Yeah, because more players and an unnoticeable framerate change is what the franchise needed. The games are already way too crowded for any enjoyment. 4vs4 is the max any of these games need to go.

CoD, yes.

Battlefield? No way, that's gameplay that actually can justify high player counts and large maps. Which will be relatively fresh after CoD, and it seems popular enough now at any rate.

 

[LiveFromKyoto]

I attribute the downturn to:

A) Franchise fatigue
B) Lack of a strong hook (I like dogs but, y'know)
C) Crowded AAA FPS market this fall
D) The Battlefield trailers eating its lunch

Mostly D.

 

[Nutrition Facts]

Call of Duty: Ghosts will sell a ton, but I think the next Call of Duty after that will be the one to break records again. Too many people are not sure which console to buy for. I've recently decided to wait until after next E3 to get a PS4/Xbox One, and since there is no backwards compatibility, I'm not buying CoD Ghosts for my 360. Ans this would be the first time in 9 years where I'm not getting a CoD game right away.

 

[Birathen]

Could the reign of the military shooter finally be nearing its end?

It is a nice dream and we can dream, right?

 

[PaulExcellent]

Can we retire this now? Please??

So, you haven't seen it.

Also, sure. It'll sell a lot. I see it happening.

 

[The Silver]

ActiBlizzard really knows what they're doing when it comes to making money.

Call of Duty
Skylanders
World of Warcraft
Diablo 3
StarCraft 2
and now Destiny
and eventually Titan


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1k2SNtq79c
They probably have this playing all throughout their offices.

 

[Nori Chan]

Please let CoD die.

Never.

 

[demolitio]

Don't ever speak of SOCOM II's name again.

No kidding. I was assuming that was sarcasm since COD was the running joke of the SOCOM community this generation and why SOCOM 4 was dumbed down.

COD is NOTHING like SOCOM. NOTHING. SOCOM required teamwork and actually communicating with people while having great map layouts that support multiple strategies. The average COD game has none of that. Hell, the only recent MP game to even give me the teamplay aspect from SOCOM has been The Last of Us surprisingly enough and I've run into quite a few SOCOM players on there who said the same thing. Ironically enough, those SOCOM players were the only ones using voice chat.

I think Activision has to know that COD's success is finite. It will be profitable for quite some time, but I don't think it's going to be the game everyone talks about anymore. If they were willing to take risks, they would realize their sales aren't guaranteed after Ghosts and try to actually shake the series up quite a bit and show people that they're willing to change the formula and keep the game fresh and new. I think if Ghosts doesn't do as well, they have to be willing to take chances and keep the game relevant by attracting some of the gamers they've lose with their repetitive gameplay. Sure, it's risky to change the formula that's printed money for you for so long, but it's also certain that keeping everything the same will hurt you eventually too.

I just think that spending the time and money to develop a new engine would go a long way. People want a next-gen experience on the new consoles and PR statements about fish A.I. aren't going to cut it. The engine was good enough for this generation since 60FPS was very unique, but now they're looking at games that look drastically better yet run at 60FPS too and then their one excuse is gone. It's one thing for the gameplay to remain exactly the same, it's another for the overall look to never change as well as other series progress.

 

[Gorillaz]

Destiny is the new CoD (in Acti's view).

That's been there goal for awhile.

 

[KaYotiX]

Problem with Destiny is it looks like more Borderlands in a different skin.

I'm sure it's got new ideas but at first glance it's not looking like something I'd place a Billion on.

 

[Wiktor]

Glad to see Black Ops 2 doing well. First truly fresh entry in the series since the first one.

 

[megamerican]

They should have taken the new consoles as an opportunity to reinvent the series. Ghosts looks exactly like a cross between Black Ops and Modern Warfare. Not very interesting.

I don't think COD will be the same force it was in this gen going into the next.

 

[N2NOther]

How close is the next competitor to COD? Did Battlefield 3 get close to any of the sales numbers for post MW Call of Duty games?

Around 5 million across all platforms. Which is really good less then half of COD's numbers.

What is it with GAF that any hint of a downturn in sales and "X is doomed?" Ghosts is going to sell fine. It makes perfect sense that a console transition would cause hesitation. People aren't even sure they'll be able to get a next gen console, not to mention the back and forth of this gen's console war.

But what am I saying? Logic and rationale need to enter a Call of Duty thread.

 

[RedAssedApe]

in the past how early did they start showing COD before launch?


bf4 as well as next-gen or current-gen comparisons would be the main factors for me. not impressed by what they've shown so far

 

[N2NOther]

It's finally happening.

People are finally figuring out that COD is the same god damn thing every year.

It only took 5 years but I will take it.

Yep. That's it. Quick question though. When was the last time you played and I mean really put hours into a Call of Duty game?

 

[glenn8]

Can we retire this now? Please??

did you even see titanfall?

 

[TastyOreoFriend]

No kidding. I was assuming that was sarcasm since COD was the running joke of the SOCOM community this generation and why SOCOM 4 was dumbed down.

COD is NOTHING like SOCOM. NOTHING. SOCOM required teamwork and actually communicating with people while having great map layouts that support multiple strategies. The average COD game has none of that. Hell, the only recent MP game to even give me the teamplay aspect from SOCOM has been The Last of Us surprisingly enough and I've run into quite a few SOCOM players on there who said the same thing. Ironically enough, those SOCOM players were the only ones using voice chat.

I think Activision has to know that COD's success is finite. It will be profitable for quite some time, but I don't think it's going to be the game everyone talks about anymore. If they were willing to take risks, they would realize their sales aren't guaranteed after Ghosts and try to actually shake the series up quite a bit and show people that they're willing to change the formula and keep the game fresh and new. I think if Ghosts doesn't do as well, they have to be willing to take chances and keep the game relevant by attracting some of the gamers they've lose with their repetitive gameplay. Sure, it's risky to change the formula that's printed money for you for so long, but it's also certain that keeping everything the same will hurt you eventually too.

I just think that spending the time and money to develop a new engine would go a long way. People want a next-gen experience on the new consoles and PR statements about fish A.I. aren't going to cut it. The engine was good enough for this generation since 60FPS was very unique, but now they're looking at games that look drastically better yet run at 60FPS too and then their one excuse is gone. It's one thing for the gameplay to remain exactly the same, it's another for the overall look to never change as well as other series progress.

I think I remember seeing in the video where they first showed the dog game play that they basically said they weren't trying to do that. I think they said something along the lines of "we have a good formula and people like that, why try to change it" etc. From what they've shown so far I pretty much expect the status quo in a shiny next gen package for PS4/Xbone.

 

[Duane Cunningham]

Activision surely realizes that CoD is merely going the natural way of all Activision franchises, like Tony Hawk and Guitar Hero.

 

[Rastafarian42]

With stiff competition from Battlefield in the FPS field and GTAV on the horizon franchise fatigue is settling in. I think COD sales will start to diminish. Plus Destiny is primed to be Activision's new franchise.

 

[LaNaranja]

Oh man it is going to suck if Destiny becomes the next big thing filled with people screaming racial slurs forcing me to play with all mics muted. It actually looked like a fun game.

 

[mr stroke]

I'd imagine Battlefield 4 will outsell Ghosts on next gen systems.

no chance

 

[nacimento]

I still don't see how Destiny is supposed to be a 1 billion dollar franchise.

Don't get me wrong - I loved what they showed during E3, but do they really have to quantify a game by constantly smearing that title on it? It's almost the game's tagline, for Christ's sake; Destiny - the 1 billion dollar franchise.

It makes the game feel dirty.

Would be hilarious if its only a decent success, it will look like a miserable failure.