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September 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 13th

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD September 2015 retail period (August 30-October 3, 2015) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Thursday, October 15th (Edit: Pushed it out a couple of days since NPD release is postponed). Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: August 30-October 3, 2015 (5 weeks, August was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Monday, October 19th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT) Edit: Release date pushed out to Monday, Oct. 19. Thanks for the heads up!

Format:

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in September:
Summary
2DS price drop to $100 starting Aug 30 - 35 days
Wii U Super Mario Maker bundle + exclusive modern Mario amiibo @ Wal-Mart (regular $300 price, Sept. 11) - 23 days
White w/design PS4 Destiny: Taken King LE bundle (regular $400 price, Sept. 15) - 19 days
Blue w/design XB1 Forza 6 bundle (regular 1TB $400 price, Sept. 15) - 19 days
n3DS (regular, non-XL, new3DS) Animal Crossing Happy Home Designer bundle - $220 (Sept. 25) - 9 days


Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

August's Results (estimates)
1. PS4 - 209K
2. XB1 - 202K
3. 3DS - 80K
4. WIU - 43K

August 2014 NPD thread
September 2014 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Bundles ... Bundles everywhere! Microsoft is announcing new holiday bundles every day this week. Halo bundle next month. Forza bundle this month. PS4 Destiny bundle this month. Then Vader. Then COD. And room for a lot more.

But this is for October.
Does September count already as worthy enough?
 
Yo, when's the price drops?

Any heavy hitters out this month from Koei?

All the Microsoft shills ready to party?

This month will be interesting. And if not this month, then next month will be interesting.

Does the New 3DS come with a charging cable yet?
 
Can someone post Sept 2014 NPD sales numbers?

aux-usa-destiny-fait-le-bonheur-de-la-ps4-ME3050354009_1.jpg
 
Looking back at September, the biggest release was Shadow of Mordor and it came out in late September. It wasn't exactly a dry month, but those numbers are surprisingly good. But also, this was before the Xbox One holiday promotional period price drop.

huh?
destiny launched!
biggest new ip release ever
1413494016360eknl.jpg
 
Looking back at September, the biggest release was Shadow of Mordor and it came out in late September. It wasn't exactly a dry month, but those numbers are surprisingly good. But also, this was before the Xbox One holiday promotional period price drop.
Destiny came out last September.

Edit - Got beat!
 

bombshell

Member
Looking back at September, the biggest release was Shadow of Mordor and it came out in late September. It wasn't exactly a dry month, but those numbers are surprisingly good. But also, this was before the Xbox One holiday promotional period price drop.

Destiny...?
 
[PS4] 385K
[XB1] 293K
[WIU] 95K
[3DS] 101K

I am having a really hard time with the PS4 number... ugh...

I'll be back to edit it again about 7 or 12 more times before the deadline, I'm sure.
 
You think X1 will be down from last year? It has a lower price, Destiny re-release and MGS over last year. The price difference almost assures it will be up.

People might hold their breath for the bundles, halo and everything.
plus, they might have bought last month when they needed a TV.
 

vin-buc

Member
What are the chances of PS raising the gap to 1 million with September numbers (i think i read they're right around 800k, currently)?

Does anyone see a 250k gap over XB1 like last September?
 

Fat4all

Banned
you don't remember last year anyway.

I've lost so many shoes.

Do I have children?

What are the chances of PS raising the gap to 1 million with September numbers (i think i read they're right around 800k, currently)?

Does anyone see a 250k gap over XB1 like last September?

Gap reaching 900k with September is very likely, iirc the gap is currently at ~810k. Dunno about a mil.
 

Kill3r7

Member
You think X1 will be down from last year? It has a lower price, Destiny re-release and MGS over last year. The price difference almost assures it will be up.

For what it is worth, Microsoft ran a one week promo last year where you could buy any X1 bundle and get a free copy of Destiny. Similar to what Sony did this year with Madden and last week with MGSV and the Destiny bundle. That said, I expect both consoles to be down this September.
 

cakely

Member
Amazon monthly rankings September 2015

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-09/videogames

#9 - PlayStation 4 500GB Console - Destiny: The Taken King Limited Edition Bundle

#53 - Xbox One 1TB Console - Forza 6 Limited Edition Bundle

#83 - PlayStation 4 500GB Console - The Last of Us Remastered Bundle

#92 - Xbox One 500GB Console - Gears of War: Ultimate Edition Bundle

#94 - Xbox One 1TB Console - Madden NFL 16 Bundle

Also, "PlayStation 4 500GB Console - Limited Edition Star Wars Battlefront Bundle" is at #16, but sales of that bundle won't count until November.
 

blakep267

Member
What are the chances of PS raising the gap to 1 million with September numbers (i think i read they're right around 800k, currently)?

Does anyone see a 250k gap over XB1 like last September?
The fact that while destiny is destiny, it's still not a new game. So I don't think the bundle will do as well as last year
 
Amazon monthly rankings September 2015

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-09/videogames

#9 - PlayStation 4 500GB Console - Destiny: The Taken King Limited Edition Bundle

#53 - Xbox One 1TB Console - Forza 6 Limited Edition Bundle

#83 - PlayStation 4 500GB Console - The Last of Us Remastered Bundle

#92 - Xbox One 500GB Console - Gears of War: Ultimate Edition Bundle

#94 - Xbox One 1TB Console - Madden NFL 16 Bundle

Also, "PlayStation 4 500GB Console - Limited Edition Star Wars Battlefront Bundle" is at #16, but sales of that bundle won't count until November.

Xbox has 3 consoles, PS4 only 2.

Xbox wins 60/40
 
Honestly, there's a very good chance both are lower than last year the way I see it.

ps4 for sure
xb1 only under the worst possible circumstances

if xb1 is flat over august, they will sell 250k units
if xb1 is up 15% over august, they will sell over 285k units
but in 2015 every single month (except titanfall march) the xb1 was up YoY

the xb1 got 2 new bundles this September. i highly doubt it will be down YoY
the xb1 price last year was also higher
 

Abdiel

Member
Quick and dirty since I'm on the floor:

Ps4 clear victor for us. Distinct gap in sales, the Destiny bundle did better than I was expecting, though that being said, it was not last year's bundle in terms of scale.

Xb1 recovered from the drop off after the tv deal, but people still all about that kind of thing. Way more "hagglers" sigh.

Taken king sold okay, but almost all the people I heard talking about it were doing the direct upgrade or I think buying the voucher card? Hard to tell exactly.

More later with specific questions if I can.
 
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