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NPD on the difficulty of launching $60 singleplayer non-GAAS games in today's market

N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I thought this was an interesting comment given they have all the data to do this analysis, along with the trends we see among major publishers.

VentureBeat said:
I asked NPD analyst Mat Piscatella how something like Agents of Mayhem could have such a rough launch, and he said that most consumers are looking for something else in their games.

”The top-selling games in the console market at the moment are primarily service based games that promise significant, or even unlimited, hours of gameplay," Piscatella explained in a note to GamesBeat. ”Single-player, non-service based games have to be nearly perfect in execution not only with the game itself, but also in the marketing and promotion around the game, to get to the top of the charts. It is a very difficult market for the $60 single-player game to hit the volumes in a launch month that service based games can reach, even if they have been in the market for some time."
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Source: https://venturebeat.com/2017/09/27/agents-of-mayhems-dismal-august-sales-precede-reported-layoffs/

Edit:

To note, NPD looked at the data for the entire market before making this statement, not just Agents of Mayhem:

MatPiscatella said:
It's NPD though. Presumably he made this statement after checking all their data, not just looking at Agents of Mayhem.
Click to expand...
Presumed correct. And I even made that statement intentionally general to cover the market as a whole and didn't even mention the game itself...
Click to expand...

And on singleplayer successes:

MatPiscatella said:
arts&crafts said:
There is definitely a trend towards MP /Microtransactions but we have to stop using Agents of Mayhem as a shining example because as you stated, it didnt look great from the start, the marketing was meh and its $80 (Canadian). Look at GTAV (I think there is multiplayer now but it has been a top seller for years) , Zelda, The Witcher, ect. Hell every Bethesda game sells tens of millions and they are all single player. If a single player game is great, I think it will sell more than a multiplayer game. I am sure Mario and the new AC will sell great as well.

On the other hand Prey was amazing and it didnt sell well so I dont know.
Click to expand...
You're emphasizing the point I was making in the statement. For a SP non service based game to reach the top of the charts, execution on both the title as well as the marketing and promotion has to be near perfect. The games you mention as successes? They did everything just about perfectly.
Click to expand...
MatPiscatella said:
tebunker said:
The real take aways from this are that to be a really successful SP game you need a top shelf product with top level messaging and marketing.
Click to expand...
This is absolutely the correct takeaway.
Click to expand...
 
N

NinjaCoachZ

Member
My friend and I were talking about how much Agents of Mayhem slipped under the radar, and I went "I wonder why they didn't just make Saints Row 5", and then he went, "Oh, Agents of Mayhem basically is a Saints Row game, they're in the same universe."

I was just gobsmacked. My immediate reaction was, why didn't they tell nobody??
 
V

Vinc

Member
There's just a huge amount of entertainment available, and everything is competing for people's time and money. MP games have to be great too. But yes, games are getting longer and therefore suck away the time people have to do other things.
 
S

ScaryShark

Banned
There should be a lot less AAA games in general.

I wonder what the best case scenario for Agents of Mayhem even was? You made a game that looks like Saint's Row, that isn't proper Saint's Row and that looks like a multiplayer or co-op game that doesn't have multiplayer or co-op.

It seemed ill-conceived from conception.

I feel bad for those that were laid off if/because of the lack of success the game had.
 
L

LewieP

Member
I don't think extrapolating a trend based on one publisher/developer doing a terrible job with a specific game is all that useful.

It was dumb to present this like it's a new ip. It was dumb to milk the Saints Row ip dry with so many releases, and it was dumb to acquire the Red Faction ip without doing a remaster of RFG on PS4/Xbox One, then a sequel.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Bossking said:
Don't make it $60 then.
Click to expand...

So there's actually been an interesting trend here with more $40 singleplayer games.

The top 20 NPD games from last month:

  1. Madden NFL 18
  2. Grand Theft Auto V
  3. Uncharted: The Lost Legacy - SP, $40 (Though it does give you access to UC4's MP.)
  4. Splatoon 2*
  5. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild* - SP, $60, 97 MC
  6. Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege
  7. Mario Kart 8*
  8. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare Remastered
  9. Crash Bandicoot: N. Sane Trilogy - SP, $40
  10. Overwatch**
  11. Injustice 2
  12. Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands
  13. Minecraft
  14. For Honor
  15. Call of Duty: Black Ops III
  16. Agents Of Mayhem - SP, $60, 63 MC
  17. Forza Horizon 3
  18. Battlefield 1
  19. NBA 2K17
  20. UFC 2
We actually do see $40 singleplayer games doing well.

Of course, the issue is that retailer margins and licensing fees are way less favorable/profitable at $40 than $60.
 
B

Bossking

Banned
NinjaCoachZ said:
My friend and I were talking about how much Agents of Mayhem slipped under the radar, and I went "I wonder why they didn't just make Saints Row 5", and then he went, "Oh, Agents of Mayhem basically is a Saints Row game, they're in the same universe."

I was just gobsmacked. My immediate reaction was, why didn't they tell nobody??
Click to expand...

I haven't played the game myself, but I thought that this was supposed to be a universe reset based on one of the endings to Gat Out of Hell, where some characters return but are cops or superheroes now.

That in itself is pretty confusing and I can see why it would turn people away, especially since Agents of Mayhem seems to share nothing with the Saints universe outside of motifs, mechanics, Pierce and a Gat DLC pack.
 
W

watdaeff4

Member
This analysis should be pinned so that everyone can refer to it in the coming years as publishers move towards GaaS and cry why is it happening.


As a primarily SP gamer, it's not the best for me, but the writing is on the wall.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Yeah he's spot on and I even find myself never paying $60 for Single Player only games / focused anymore. The only games I've bought day 1 for full price lately are games like Destiny, Overwatch, etc. Single player games will come down in price and I'm gonna spend way more time with a service game than I am a single player game. Also friends jump in Day 1 and I want to play online with them.

That isn't to say strong single player games don't have any place anymore, just look at sales for games like Horizon, Uncharted, etc. But as Mat points out you have to have a spectacularly good marketing plan and vision for the product to really convince consumers they need to be there Day 1 at full price. The market is absolutely moving to service titles being the focus of the industry
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
LewieP said:
I don't extrapolating a trend based on one publisher/developer doing a terrible job with a specific game is all that useful.

It was dumb to present this like it's a new ip. It was dumb to milk the Saints Row ip dry with so many releases, and it was dumb to acquire the Red Faction ip without doing a remaster of RFG on PS4/Xbox One, then a sequel.
Click to expand...

It's NPD though. Presumably he made this statement after checking all their data, not just looking at Agents of Mayhem.
 
Jawmuncher

Jawmuncher

Member
Always made sense to me. Why I’m not surprised with how Shadow of War is going about things. So long as there’s enough of a market to keep things diverse this is fine.

Also definitely keep on the “expansions” like Uncharted lost legacy. I’m cool with more of that.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
You basically can't be an 8.5/10 or lower quality single player game and do well at retail right now unless you're FF15 and thus are 150 hours long.
 
B

bluexy

Member
What a weird assumption. Agents of Mayhem isn't exactly the single-player game that I'd put forward as evidence of how multiplayer games are so much more successful these days
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Nirolak said:
It's NPD though. Presumably he made this statement after checking all their data, not just looking at Agents of Mayhem.
Click to expand...

Presumed correct. And I even made that statement intentionally general to cover the market as a whole and didn't even mention the game itself...
 
O

Obliterator

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
You basically can't be an 8.5/10 or lower quality single player game and do well at retail right now unless you're FF15 and thus are 150 hours long.
Click to expand...

It is true you are seeing a resurgence of the RPG genre recently, and I do think a strong part of that is due to game length. Similarly to service titles these are games you can sink major amounts of time into and consumers feel more justified for that $60.

The days of releasing an under 20 hour AAA budget single player game only and dominating the charts are pretty much over
 
B

blakep267

Member
Chairmanchuck said:
Also maybe dont launch a game without marketing?

Even people on GAF were surprised the game is already out.
Click to expand...
To be fair for a gaming forum, people are fairly clueless a lot of the time regarding games releases. I don't even follow stuff that closely, but I'm on twitch and YouTube a lot and they show trailers there for tons of games
 
A

arts&crafts

Member
Tankard said:
Or also the game is incredibly uninteresting. I say that as a huge fan of Volition and Saints Row.
Click to expand...

There is definitely a trend towards MP /Microtransactions but we have to stop using Agents of Mayhem as a shining example because as you stated, it didnt look great from the start, the marketing was meh and its $80 (Canadian). Look at GTAV (I think there is multiplayer now but it has been a top seller for years) , Zelda, The Witcher, ect. Hell every Bethesda game sells tens of millions and they are all single player. If a single player game is great, I think it will sell more than a multiplayer game. I am sure Mario and the new AC will sell great as well.

On the other hand Prey was amazing and it didnt sell well so I dont know.
 
kunonabi

kunonabi

Member
I was never clear on what AoM actually was. Actually I'm still not sure what it is.

The character designs were cool but the marketing just never grabbed me.
 
S

Sgt. Kabukiman

Banned
It's interesting, for the last two gens a lot of people were complaining about games becoming shorter and shorter. Well, publishers heard you. And now we're seeing the explosion of games as services and I think that's a direct response.

Oh well, Zelda, Nier, The Witcher, Skyrim and co are still big sellers so I'm not too worried. Agents of Mayhem's failure has little to do with it being single player, it just didn't look that good.
 
B

Bossking

Banned
People also forget that every Saints Row game and most of the Red Factions also shipped with some form of multiplayer or co-op in their games as well, while also being $60. Agents of Mayhem has less single-player content than any of those games along with no multiplayer/co-op component to speak of, while still being priced the same (or lower). Agents of Mayhem is its own little oddity, since this is a game coming from a developer with an established fanbase but generally going against everything those fans would expect from them. You're going to see a lot of diehard Volition fans in this thread who have no idea what the fuck Agents of Mayhem is or if it even came out yet.
 
S

Shredderi

Member
Good single player games do swimmingly if they're well marketed, but yeah mediocre full price SP games propably has a bad time in the current market. I'm a SP guy myself who loves well done campaigns but AoM just looked obnoxious and tryhard for me at every turn but it would have been redeemed by co-op multiplayer, which it lacked...
 
B

blakep267

Member
arts&crafts said:
There is definitely a trend towards MP /Microtransactions but we have to stop using Agents of Mayhem as a shining example because as you stated, it didnt look great from the start, the marketing was meh and its $80 (Canadian). Look at GTAV (I think there is multiplayer now but it has been a top seller for years) , Zelda, The Witcher, ect. Hell every Bethesda game sells tens of millions and they are all single player. If a single player game is great, I think it will sell more than a multiplayer game. I am sure Mario and the new AC will sell great as well.
Click to expand...
skyrim and Fallout sell because they are established brands that people know. Stuff like prey, doom, dishonored etc sell nowhere near ES or Fallout. And AC looks to bounce back this years but they were doing not so great the last 2 games. And Mario is Mario
 
L

LastGamer84

Member
Plenty of SP games sell just fine. Agents of Mayhem was a SP Hero Shooter with nothing going for it.

But hey, let's push that GaaS is the way to go for devs, because why control your budget and focus on making a compelling product when you can just milk customers through microtransactions?

Budgets are out of control and gamers are getting less for their $60 than ever before.
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
arts&crafts said:
There is definitely a trend towards MP /Microtransactions but we have to stop using Agents of Mayhem as a shining example because as you stated, it didnt look great from the start, the marketing was meh and its $80 (Canadian). Look at GTAV (I think there is multiplayer now but it has been a top seller for years) , Zelda, The Witcher, ect. Hell every Bethesda game sells tens of millions and they are all single player. If a single player game is great, I think it will sell more than a multiplayer game. I am sure Mario and the new AC will sell great as well.

On the other hand Prey was amazing and it didnt sell well so I dont know.
Click to expand...

You're emphasizing the point I was making in the statement. For a SP non service based game to reach the top of the charts, execution on both the title as well as the marketing and promotion has to be near perfect. The games you mention as successes? They did everything just about perfectly.

LastGamer84 said:
Plenty of SP games sell just fine. Agents of Mayhem was a SP Hero Shooter with nothing going for it.

But hey, let's push that GaaS is the way to go for devs, because why control your budget and focus on making a compelling product when you can just milk customers through microtransactions?
Click to expand...

Push? Stats are stats. The sales data is exceptionally clear.

ethomaz said:
I have to disagree with OP comment.

This game bombed due it quality... no matter if it a SP, MP, service game... a 60 MC won't drive sales. Bad quality is more responsible for the low sales than the game being SP only.

Put a 85-90 SP game on the market and compare sales.
Click to expand...

Read the statement again. Because it agrees (somewhat) with your point.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
I have to disagree with OP comment.

This game bombed due it quality... no matter if it a SP, MP, service game... a 60 MC won’t drive sales. Bad quality is more responsible for the low sales than the game being SP only.

Put a 85-90 SP game on the market and compare sales.
 
S

Shredderi

Member
And yeah, no one can deny where the market is headed towards, but let's not use Agenst of Mayhem as the prime example of why things are the way they are. It's not like it looked fucking great and now it's baffling how it seemingly bombed.
 
BigEmil

BigEmil

Junior Member
As someone who prefers legit single player games over crappy service based games and faux single player games with multiplayer, this sucks :(


I will continue to support proper single player games day one
 
L

Lime

Member
Damn, the future of single player games worry me. Luckily the mid and indie tier will always be there er, but it was always nice to have the occasional mainstream production
 
T

tebunker

Banned
Greigor The Fellhand said:
agents of mayhem looked awful.

make a good game, get sales. make a weird online not online game with nothing of interest to market no sales
Click to expand...


AoM was just the example used in the Question, as Mat has confirmed he pulled data for multiple SP games vs MP games.

This is a trend and AoM was just the latest victim.

Granted AoM's problems only exacerbated the issues.

The real take aways from this are that to be a really successful SP game you need a top shelf product with top level messaging and marketing. Long gone are the days or half assedly publishing a game and having word of mouth carry it or being B-tier and getting by on suckering early adopters.

Its a message to pubs and devs, which I am not sure pubs will hear clearly. There is still a market for these games, just not at $60, and they need to adjust budgets and schedules accordingly. Focus Home
interactive seems to get this.
 
Interfectum

Interfectum

Member
ethomaz said:
I have to disagree with OP comment.

This game bombed due it quality... no matter if it a SP, MP, service game... a 60 MC won’t drive sales. Bad quality is more responsible for the low sales than the game being SP only.

Put a 85-90 SP game on the market and compare sales.
Click to expand...

He's saying you have to nail a good SP game in every aspect to make it successful in today's market. So you are agreeing with the OP comment for the most part.
 
N

NinjaCoachZ

Member
Bossking said:
I haven't played the game myself, but I thought that this was supposed to be a universe reset based on one of the endings to Gat Out of Hell, where some characters return but are cops or superheroes now.

That in itself is pretty confusing and I can see why it would turn people away, especially since Agents of Mayhem seems to share nothing with the Saints universe outside of motifs, mechanics, Pierce and a Gat DLC pack.
Click to expand...

Yeah, for me, it surprised me because I wasn't really paying much attention but I heard Gat was DLC. I just thought that was them being gimmicky and trying to use Saints Row to draw attention to the franchise, like Duke Nukem in Bulletstorm or whatever. It was just testament to the fact that I had no idea what the game even was.

Like apparently it's a pure SP game with no multiplayer? Huuuh?? I definitely agree the marketing did not do a great job of conveying what the game was.
 
B

baxter2231

Member
That game didnt bomb because it was SP only, it bombed for other reasons. Like because no one knew about it and those who did are confused about the concept and it doesnt grab any interest looking at its boring gameplay and focus so much on "characters". That and what they do show looks like something that should be coop but isnt.
 
A

arts&crafts

Member
MatPiscatella said:
You're emphasizing the point I was making in the statement. For a SP non service based game to reach the top of the charts, execution on both the title as well as the marketing and promotion has to be near perfect. The games you mention as successes? They did everything just about perfectly.
Click to expand...

Fair enough, but I do think Agents of Mayhem is a bad example as it was poorly executed on multiple fronts. Prey/ Dishonored are probably better examples as they are universally praised and at least had some marketing. Although you didnt bring it up the interviewer did, so its on them!
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Single player does seem to be a slight handicap in terms of sales potential these days but I don't think something like Agents of Mayhem under-performed simply because it didn't have multiplayer (though it definitely didn't help). Marketing was poor and failed to adequately sell the game and reflect what it was conceptually. You could probably also argue that the premise of the game (a single player game where you control 3 characters at a time that's inspired by super-powered agents and GI Joe but WITHOUT co-op) was inherently flawed.
 
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