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Ubisoft estimates PS4/XB1 install base at 28M, expects to double by end of 2015

M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
...That results in 9.5 millions Xbox One, doesn't it? not even 10 millions sounds too low.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
I take it Ubisoft estimations are very reliable, so that's put XB1 at less than 10.5 m at the end of 2014.
 
A

anexanhume

Member
Cross-post from copy bump: So they expect 2014 numbers, plus add in the ~6M start both consoles had in 2013. Buckle in, that will be a wild holiday quarter.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
If we use their estimations, then PS4+XB1 sold 20.8M this year. It means Ubisoft expect 34% increase in the sales of PS4+XB1.

It doesn't sound unrealistic to me.

TylerDurden4321 said:
The way I understand this, people who own both consoles aren't counted twice. Could be quite a bit more Xbox One owners then.
Click to expand...

This doesn't make any sense.
 
A

AmaterasuOni

Banned
TylerDurden4321 said:
The way I understand this, people who own both consoles aren't counted twice. Could be quite a bit more Xbox One owners then.
Click to expand...

What, what? Serious or not, can't tell. :)

And if 1% of Chinese people buy Xbone, it will sell at least twice as much of whatever even without counting people twice or even thrice.
 
T

TylerDurden4321

Member
jackdoe said:
That doesn't make sense. How are they supposed to know who owns both to not count them twice?
Click to expand...

Some market-research company does the math by extrapolating from known cases of demand of similar games and how much next-gen games were sold last year.

Edit: That is a GUESS and I don't have access to the slides either.
 
C

Canis lupus

Member
Pray For Death said:
Double? Very optimistic IMO
Click to expand...

Why? Both will likely see a price cut, both have system selling games (XB1: Halo, PS4: UC4, MGS5, P5 etc), more current gen only games.

I see PS4 at 17-18M and Xbone at 12-13M this year.

Elandyll said:
Seems a tad optimistic on the PS4 side, though definitely possible with China (possibly) launching and Japan (supposedly) gaining steam, but how on Earth do you see the XB1 pulling a 12-13m this year? o_O
Click to expand...

299 Halo 5 bundle :p
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
So the split was around 18.5/ 9.5, according to Ubisoft (20/8 would be way too low for XB1 imo) at the end of 2014.

Interesting, but who knows how they got to their "estimate"...

Canis lupus said:
Why? Both will likely see a price cut, both have system selling games (XB1: Halo, PS4: UC4, MGS5, P5 etc), more current gen only games.

I see PS4 at 17-18M and Xbone at 12-13M this year.
Click to expand...

Seems a tad optimistic on the PS4 side, though definitely possible with China (possibly) launching and Japan (supposedly) gaining steam, but how on Earth do you see the XB1 pulling a 12-13m this year? o_O
 
A

Ape

Banned
Y3N6LKa.jpg



as always
 
C

Conduit

Banned
So, 9.5 mil. Xbone's sold in 2014. That's a...hm.... MS really has a bunch of unsold Xbone consoles at retailers.
 
V

vesvci

Banned
Sounds about right.

TylerDurden4321 said:
The way I understand this, people who own both consoles aren't counted twice. Could be quite a bit more Xbox One owners then.
Click to expand...

Uh...what? Makes no sense. EVEN if they could tell who has both consoles, why even do it that way? Numbers are lower, and that's not good for investors and such.

This sounds more like something someone in PR would say...as damage control.
 
M

Madness

Member
CozMick said:
18.5m vs 9.5m dayum
Click to expand...

I think it's more than that. But it's inevitable. I mean Xbox One is in the race in only two territories really (NA and EU), whereas PS4 has Japan. Just like last gen. Xbox One has taken the lead the last two months in the US/Canada, but lose in Europe and are non existent in Japan. The gap is only going to get wider worldwide, but they are within a few hundred thousand in NA.
 
P

Philippo

Member
Madness said:
I think it's more than that. But it's inevitable. I mean Xbox One is in the race in only two territories really (NA and EU), whereas PS4 has Japan and Saudi Arabia, Brazil, China and other markets. Just like last gen. Xbox One has taken the lead the last two months in the US/Canada, but lose in Europe and are non existent in Japan. The gap is only going to get wider worldwide, but they are within a few hundred thousand in NA.
Click to expand...

ftfy

Sony's really going for world domination, i'm sure this will greatly benefit even it's smaller first-party titles.
 
Z

ZhugeEX

Banned
AMD: Nearly 30m (unknown source)
Take Two: exceeded 29m (IDG)
Ubisoft: exceeded 28m (Ubisoft Estimates)

PS4 sell through exceeded 18.5m

Xbox One sell through is likely to be over 10m based on figures we have from NPD/Gfk but we'll never know the actual number. According to the above it could be anywhere between ~9.5m to ~11.5m.

It's likely AMD are also Using IDG figures whilst Ubisoft are using their own estimate.
 
C

CraigerGamer

Member
Hopefully these numbers convince studios that its ok to leave last-gen consoles behind if their tech needs more headroom.

I'm talking to you Bethesda.
 
D

Death2494

Member
SomedayTheFire said:
Shipped =/= sold through? Could be the discrepancy.
Click to expand...
AMD said "almost 30 million"
Take Two said "exceeds 29 million"
and Ubisoft saying "over 28 million"

I think there is a general consensus that the combined sales Ps4/XB1 were not at 30 million by the end of 2014. This rules out XB1 sold through being at 11.5M. Because 18.5 + 11.5 is 30million and reports are saying it's under that.

They can't be referring to sold through anyway because Microsoft has only updated shipped or sold-in. Microsoft investors don't even know the split. This would also be a shift seeing as how IDG has normally reported shipped numbers. Unless I'm missing something. Does anyone know for a FACT that they are using sold-through?

Also based on Sony's report, we know that they shipped 19.9M at the end of 2014. Microsoft probably hit the 10m shipped milestone by the end of 2014.

But this lines up with the prediction me and a few others had about XB1. But this is only speculation.

But the 2:1 is all but confirmed at this point.

None of this explains why Ubisoft is so low.
 
J

jholmes

Member
I guess if Ubisoft convinces themselves this can happen they'll convince themselves rushing out two Assassin's Creed games a year is a good idea.
 
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