Aquamarine
Member
GfK covers most of the rest of the world that NPD doesn't track.
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Ubisoft estimates PS4/XB1 install base at 28M, expects to double by end of 2015
- Thread starter Saty
- Start date
GfK covers most of the rest of the world that NPD doesn't track.
TheMasterGoblin
Member
No. Microsoft already announced 10 million units shipped (early November). It would be pretty ugly to then go and say when they actually sold all 10 million to consumers.
Usually companies will give you one or the other, not one and then the other.
I would not expect another number, be it shipped or sold through, until they get to another milestone.
Superman00
Liverpool01
Which is why they said "nearly", instead of like "close", "almost". Basically a word that can be construed as in many different way.
Superman00
Liverpool01
It's just funny that these 3 PR are different, but yet not contradicting. However, seems to me Xbone 1 may be closer to the lower end or middle of the estimates rather than the high end of those numbers.
They clarified sold through to end users. Have you not read this thread?
RespectThySole
Member
Death you have your answer above. Even though I'm pretty sure you already saw it in the other thread. I have no clue why you keep trying to say those numbers are shipped.
If we completely disregarded the clarified statement it still wouldn't make any sense for you to come to the conclusion that the numbers to be shipped. We have the Xbox family shipped numbers and we have the PS4(as well as PS3) shipped numbers. The 360 would have to be quadrupling the PS3 in sales(in Q4) for current gen shipped to only be 29 million, tripling for 30 million.(I used the 40% YOY drop for Q2/Q3)
If we completely disregarded the clarified statement it still wouldn't make any sense for you to come to the conclusion that the numbers to be shipped. We have the Xbox family shipped numbers and we have the PS4(as well as PS3) shipped numbers. The 360 would have to be quadrupling the PS3 in sales(in Q4) for current gen shipped to only be 29 million, tripling for 30 million.(I used the 40% YOY drop for Q2/Q3)
You basing your argument on an someone else's INTERPRETATION of what you think is being said and I'm sorry that's not considered hard evidence to me. I am not disregarding it but I don't consider it as hard evidence. Provide me with a link that states "AMD clarifies...." "AMD meant sold-through" anything along those lines. Otherwise you're just grasping at straws to support an 11.5M - 12.5M XB1 shipment prediction.
AMD investors do not care about sold-though of XB1/PS4 because it's irrelevant to them. They are only concerned with how MANY ARMs have been shipped by Microsoft and Sony. So why would they care? How are they getting the sold-through for XB1 without know the split? As I mentioned before, links to support your argument would be nice.
I CANNOT BELIEVE THIS
You have the link, you have the clarification, why are you still going on as if you never received the link?
The person clarifying works for AMD. This a silly fight to fall on your sword on. All we can do is give ranges for X1 sales whether you believe AMD or not.
@TheMasterGoblin
You see what I mean when I say Death2494 blatantly ignores any evidence or link. He's asked for a link, you posted it, now he's asking for another link and pretending the link you posted isn't evidence.
So as I said before, even if you post evidence, death 2494 won't accept it. It's the reason he was banned in a previous thread for attacking me over and over saying I was wrong despite me posting evidence.
I also find it laughable how he assumes that AMD won't know sell through or won't subscribe to market research organisations.
If AMD were talking 30 million shipped (as in units from their semi custom SOC to Sony/MS) the number would be over 35 million as Q4 CY2014 shipments would have been for Q1 CY2015. AMD ship out a quarter in advance (as mentioned in the link above^)
If Death can't see the evidence in front of him then I'm at a loss for words.
The only way those numbers double is if the systems come down in price ...
And MS will make up some ground this year when Halo 5 releases.
Sony can drive the stake if they come down to $299 at E3, but that isn't their method. As for the numbers, there is a reason that MS doesn't ever release XBO numbers without including the 360 in the calculations - they haven't been very impressive compared to the competition.
And MS will make up some ground this year when Halo 5 releases.
Sony can drive the stake if they come down to $299 at E3, but that isn't their method. As for the numbers, there is a reason that MS doesn't ever release XBO numbers without including the 360 in the calculations - they haven't been very impressive compared to the competition.
Thank you immensely!!! This is all I asked for. The context of the question is referring to shipments not sold-through.
Not one mention of sell-throughSanjay Chaurasia - Nomura Securities - Analyst said:
The end user from Microsoft's publicly available data is the retailer (sold-in) (shipments). Or is there a link to any public available data from Microsoft regarding sold-through in 2014?Lisa Su - Advanced Micro Devices said:
Thank you for providing the link though.
Oh for crying out loud....
Diprosalic
Banned
18.5 and 9.5?
so by end of 2015 i would say 41 and 15?
so by end of 2015 i would say 41 and 15?
She used shipments twice in her response to the question regarding shipments and the analyst ddin't ask about sold-through at all. On top of that she also states "publicly available data from both Microsoft and Sony." Microsoft has not reported sold-through publicly since then end of 2013. They have only reported shipped in 2014. And my apologies the link was on page two.
Please provide a link to Microsoft published data of the sold to consumer(or end-user by your definition). that is publicly available.
Come on guys think for yourselves Microsoft hasn't even reported XB1 sell-through. AMD would rather report a lower sell-through number to investors as oppose to providing a higher shipment number that exceeds sold-through by millions.
TheMasterGoblin
Member
Sigh...
First of all, your welcome.
Second of all, Sony and Microsoft's end user is the consumer. This is standard business knowledge / jargon. Retailers don't use the products (they sell the product for the manufacturer) so retailers are not end users.
AMD doesn't need to say "sell through" specifically. It is both implied and stated out long wise (spelled out instead of short hand jargon).
TheMasterGoblin
Member
What Microsoft reports is their business, and what AMD reports is its business.
AMD is not reporting Microsoft sales, just total console sales that use their chips (PS4 and XBO). That is a relevant statistic for AMD to report on, and yes, they easily have this data.
hydrophilic attack
Member
Expecting the install base to double is quite a bold prediction.
The only way I can see that happening is if Sony price drops to $299 at E3 or Gamescon, but I think they will wait until 2016 before they drop the price.
The only way I can see that happening is if Sony price drops to $299 at E3 or Gamescon, but I think they will wait until 2016 before they drop the price.
The key word being "Mostly" publicly available.
Edit: and.... he's been banned again. Dude needs to chill. It's just sales figures. There are infinitely more important things to care this much about.
TheMasterGoblin
Member
Shipments can mean either sold in or sold through. AMD clarified what it's numbers mean, as has been shown.
[ The below comment is inaccurate - Sorry she does say published by Microsoft and Sony, but she also has the key word "mostly" which means not all data she has was publicly available. ]
Publicly available data can mean from any source, not just MS and Sony. Such sources are GfK and NPD.
RespectThySole
Member
Unbelievable. Death, how many 360s do you think were shipped in Q4? PS3 shipped 1.1 million for reference.
1st Course
Member
Pretty sure guy is a troll. Doubt he even read people posts.
TheMasterGoblin
Member
Well, I think that ended that.
So far I'm truly impressed by this generation (except the Wii U which is sad). Coming in I would never have dreamed that the PS4 and XBO would combined sell for ~30 million units within their first 15 months or so.
Just wow.
So far I'm truly impressed by this generation (except the Wii U which is sad). Coming in I would never have dreamed that the PS4 and XBO would combined sell for ~30 million units within their first 15 months or so.
Just wow.
I agree. With all of the "consoles are dead" talk within the last few years, it's great seeing the X1/PS4 come out selling so well. Especially the PS4, I never imaged it would be selling so well. Hopefully, Nintendo's next console can pick up the slack of the Wii U.
Me too.
I made a prediction in January 2014 that PS4 would sell in 18 million and Xbox One would sell in 11.7m.
People called me crazy at the time and even I thought I was high balling it but in the end I was actually off by a bit for X1 and a lot for PS4.
Consoles are far from dead but the last console generation has seen almost 280 million units sold in. This gen will have to see the PS4 and X1 sell like the PS2 to match that (after Wii U's failure). So I do fully expect the console market to shrink and I do expect sales to be somewhat front loaded these first few years compared to last gen where the Xbox 360 and PS3 for example saw revitalised sales towards the end of the gen thanks to Kinect/Move etc...
Astral Dog
Member
TheMasterGoblin
Member
Yeah, last gen will probably skate to a nice 300 million, but keep in mind that the generation before only had about 200 million. Last generation was kind of a fluke with the Wii and the long lifetime of the cycle.
If I had to hazard a guess, I would say this gen might end up comparing with gen 6 (PS2, Xbox, GC), including the Wii U which will probably skate along for a few years and end up around CG #s(?).
Canis lupus
Member
Those numbers give a distorted view. The sole reason this gen won't match last gen is because of the collaped non-gamer market of the Wii. PS4Bone will match PS360 numbers or come pretty close at least, although it won't be 50/50, could end up 75-25 in favor of PS4). The traditional market is safe, there might be some erosion towards the later years of some casuals who went with Kinect/Move last time, but I'm certain PS4Bone will have some of that effect with its gimmicks and peripherals too (Morpheus). This gen has also the advantage of pricing due to the hardware, consoles will get cheaper faster.
And yet again you are beating around the bush. Have you read this below. I'm sure you did but chose to ignore it.
"most of that is publicly available data from what Sony and Microsoft have published."
Give us these publicly available sold to the consumer data if they exist like you said. Simple task if it's true.
TheMasterGoblin
Member
Search for NPD on this forum, and go check the quarterlys from Sony and Microsoft. All you need will be there.
TheMasterGoblin
Member
Also keep in mind she is not referencing their data, just that you can find most of that information publicly.
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
Just quoting this because it got lost in that bullshit further up the page.
Interesting that you've had no shipments at all.
oh I agree, the wii was just something else last gen and really can't be expected to be seen again. The PS4 is currently selling as well as the Wii but this year is the year that stops being the case.
It could see gen 6 LT sales but i'm more inclined to believe total sales will be less than 180m across all consoles when all is said and done.
As above the Wii does give a distorted view but it still sold units and boosted the overall install base. I wouldn't rule out the Wii as only selling to casuals and tbh I wounldnt be surprised if a lot of people buying the PS4 and X1 were being bought by people who owned a Wii.
It'll be interesting to see how well this gen does compared to last gen when you exclude the Wii. But when you add in the Wii it'll be nowhere close and that's what I mean by shrinking console market.
The main point at the moment however is that the PS4 and Xbox One are selling very fast at the moment. Just need to see if that continueS
The master goblin has given you all the answers you need. Especially that second quote.
Also did you miss how death just got banned for bringing this shipped vs sold bullshit back up.
Anyway, here are some sell through numbers for X1 which give us a minimum of 8.65m using data from NPD, Gfk & MS. We can then somewhat estimate a soft minimum for the missing data. But as AMD said, "most" of the data is publicly available. Not all.
http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=149387477
Sony have given sell through numbers quite often with the last figure from them being over 18.5m.
TheMasterGoblin
Member
Most of that information is publicly available. Afraid though we probably won't ever find out if it's banned in or banned through.
[ I'm sorry, I... just... couldn't... resist... ]
serversurfer
Member
Kinda funny to see you explaining which official data is Official Data and which is mere estimation.
Canis lupus
Member
I don't think the overall install base matters. It may matter to some forum fanboys claiming another "consoldoomz" but I don't think any publisher will panic when PS5/Xbox 4 is announced at the end of current gen with PS4Bone selling roughly another ~160M and making everyone lots of money and then look at the previous gen having ~100M more sales. Because they've mostly been making their money on PS360 and not Wii.
"I wouldn't rule out the Wii as only selling to casuals "
You wouldn't rule out?
Take out the non-gaming audience and that's what Nintendo has left with Wii U, their core audience has decreased each gen since the SNES, even from GC>Wii.Anyways. I think the PS4 will be down YoY until whenever the $299 price cut goes into effect and gains back the momentum.
serversurfer
Member
Agreed. I don't think the audience for the types of games typically discussed here on GAF has really shrunk, and it's likely to have grown. We may have lost a lot of Wii gamers to mobile, but I don't think that really means there's less money being spent (by consumers) on games like Uncharted and CoD. I think money that was previously spent on Boom Blox is now being spent on Angry Birds instead.
Again, agreed. I don't think $299 for PS4 this year is out of the question at all. This fall, we'll be two years out from launch, GDDR5 is getting cheaper, AMD said they're now charging less for APUs due to long-term pricing, and it seems likely they've had a die shrink as well. I think the real question is whether they feel pressured to drop at E3, or if they wait until Gamescom.
meanspartan
Member
They got to 28 million in a relatively slow year of 2014. If anything, judging by how loaded 2015 is, I think saying they merely double is being conservative. Especially if publishers finally start abandoning last gen versions of releases. But then, Tomb Raider is still getting a 360 version so who knows.