2 times 0 is still 0.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Ubisoft estimates PS4/XB1 install base at 28M, expects to double by end of 2015
- Thread starter Saty
- Start date
2 times 0 is still 0.
Where's the rest of the Ether?
yurinka
Member
They said while ago that it was a rare case and that don't expect to see 2 main AC games per year at least in the near future.
In addition to that, they also mentioned that Ubi Montreal won't be the lead studio (remember that several studios work on them) in all the upcoming main AC games, that they will swap this position with other studios (Ubi Quebec was mentioned for the next one) as other IPs like CoD do.
So it sounds that starting 2015 there will be a main AC per year, and (every 2 years?) Ubi Montreal would be the studio lead. The other years other Ubi studios take the lead.
Here we go, for those need more clarification. ....http://www.amd.com/en-us/press-releases/Pages/press-release-2015jan20.aspx
AMD said:
Geez, give it a rest. You were banned once already for trying to manipulate information.
All the numbers stated are sold through. We've been over this before in other threads (where you also participated) where AMD clarified straight after they meant sold to end users (so sold through).
And at the end of the day none of this matters that much... The main point to take away is that at this point in time the PS4 and X1 are doing better than the PS3 and 360 in the same time frame.
RespectThySole
Member
Take-Two said it exceeded 29 million based off of IDG data. I doubt it's only at 28 million(considering the shipped numbers).
AMD said:
No I was not. But talking about that here is a clear violation of neogaf's TOS. If you would like to know you'll have to PM me. Can you provide a link to the where AMD said they were referring to sold through? I just googled " AMD 30 million sold-through" and nothing came up. Do not want to engage in a debate with you like the other thread.
IDG usually reports shipped numbers, which is why I'm perplexed that some suggest that they are referring to sold-through. Ubisoft could be referring to sold-through though because this definitely does seem on the low end.
Imru al-Qays
Banned
Mass exodus to tablets confirmed.
Chaos2Frozen
Member
Double of 28?
So 40 million PS4 to 16 million XB1 by the end of this year?
So 40 million PS4 to 16 million XB1 by the end of this year?
RespectThySole
Member
They referring to sold-through. It would be impossible for it to be shipped anyway because we have 19.9 million shipped for PS4 and XB1 should've shipped around 11.5-12.5 million.
Paracelsus
Member
We expect to have 28m consoles by 2015, so retailers, please stuff your channels full of FFXV copies. 10m will do.
Dragonborn
Member
If these numbers are around corrdct, then that means way less than 9.5 million X1s in 2014 since they sold 3 millionish of those in 2013
Not all that far fetched. Sony announced 18.5 million sold to customers , they must have built and shipped a few more than that- 20 million total perhaps ?
Microsoft has to have sold close to 10 million by now and could have manufactured as much as 12 million.
That puts us at just over 30 million shipped world wide between the 2 consoles.
A doubling by the end of 2015, going by total shipped isn't too far off the mark.
That 18.5 number sony threw out was based on totals through to the end of 2014. We know they moved 4.2 million systems in 2013 which means they shipped at absolute minimum 14.3 million consoles in 2014. That's roughly 1.2 million shipped per month last year assuming only what was sold through to customers.
If they (sony) merely repeat that this year (and there's no real reason to expect they won't) we can expect another 14.3 million consoles to ship out by the end of december.
If MS failed to ship/sell a single xbox one that would still leave us at close to 45 million systems and I think it's a reasonable guess that MS will sell at least a few million xbox ones. 15 million ? probably not but I think at least half that is do-able.
So at the very least we will see the worldwide current gen audience increase from 30 million to 50 million + which is close to double.
Microsoft has to have sold close to 10 million by now and could have manufactured as much as 12 million.
That puts us at just over 30 million shipped world wide between the 2 consoles.
A doubling by the end of 2015, going by total shipped isn't too far off the mark.
That 18.5 number sony threw out was based on totals through to the end of 2014. We know they moved 4.2 million systems in 2013 which means they shipped at absolute minimum 14.3 million consoles in 2014. That's roughly 1.2 million shipped per month last year assuming only what was sold through to customers.
If they (sony) merely repeat that this year (and there's no real reason to expect they won't) we can expect another 14.3 million consoles to ship out by the end of december.
If MS failed to ship/sell a single xbox one that would still leave us at close to 45 million systems and I think it's a reasonable guess that MS will sell at least a few million xbox ones. 15 million ? probably not but I think at least half that is do-able.
So at the very least we will see the worldwide current gen audience increase from 30 million to 50 million + which is close to double.
Å
Åesop
Unconfirmed Member
2 x 0 is still 0 though ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Wow that means the X1 sold alot lower than everyone predicted. Yikes.
AMD stated shipped and there is no indication from AMD that they were referring to sold-through. I asked for a link to be posted where AMD clarified their statement and I have seen nothing. I Google it and it only brings me here:
I just think the same person claiming 11.5M shipped is the same one claiming AMD actually meant sold-through even though they stated shipped. There isn't always some lines to read between. Maybe AMD actually meant shipped because Microsoft has only been reporting shipped numbers for the entirety of 2014. There is no article, direct quote, or link provided that supports this claim.
There is no benefit for AMD to report console sold-through over sold-in to investors. Why would they intentionally give their investors a smaller sold-through number when the sold-in exceeds it by millions? It is counter productive. Which is why Microsoft,Sony, even (Ubisoft with AC:Unity/Rogue)both present sold-in (shipped) to investors.
it makes sense for some to distort AMD "nearly 30 million shipped" and say it means something else with zero hard evidence to support this claim. This especially if it can support a claim about a prediction regarding XB1 shipments.
There is no recent precedent of a hardware manufacturer's quarterly report opting to present sold-through over sold-in.
Ask yourself these questions. Did AMD actually say they meant sold-through? Can I find a direct quote? Or is someone trying to interpret something that is quite literal?
Apologies for the long post. But I want to be as clear as possible to avoid any misunderstandings. If you can link to any articles stating otherwise I will definitely retract my statement. Not some persons interpretation of AMDs report, but AMD clearly stating: " we were referring to sold though not shipped."
It's not everyone, me and a few others have been saying this since Microsoft's report. It's seems that all the publisher quarter reports being released are vindication of our assertions. Xbox One more than likely hit the 10 million shipped mark before the end of 2014.
Again, I'm providing some forms of documentation to support my claims. If there is some compelling evidence with a link I will revise.Just provide a hard source (link)
Exactly. Microsoft is no longer disclosing sold-through to their own investors. We are only getting combined XB1/360 shipments. So how would take two, Ubisoft, and AMD (why would they even care) know XB1 sold-through when Microsoft's investors do not know it? I'm not asking people to agree, just see it from a different point of view.
Now if you accept that they are referring to shipped and not sold-through, the real conversation can get underway.
I stand corrected. I guess they'll try to shovel out more untested games and only one a year will be Assassin's Creed, then.
TheMasterGoblin
Member
You will find the shipped vs sold through answer on page 17 of AMD's quarterly report transcript. In a question from Sanjay Chaurasia, Lisa Su said "Sure, so Sanjay, let me just clarify. In terms of the unit shipments, those are unit shipments from our customers to end users, and most of that is publicly available data from what Sony and Microsoft have published."
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MjY3MjM0fENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1
[UPDATE]
Here is the link to the Investor Relations page for AMD where I found that file: http://ir.amd.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=74093&p=quarterlyearnings
ArchedThunder
Banned
I don't know, 56-60 million by the end of the year seems a bit much. I expect more around 45-50 million with anywhere from 30-35 million of those being PS4 and Xbox being somewhere around 15 million. Unless either Xbox's sales pick up drastically in Europe or PS4's sales explode beyond what people expect I just don't see it happening.
TheMasterGoblin
Member
The doubling seems reasonable, and really looking back on prior cycles, expected.
Since the PS4 seems to be maintaining a rough 2:1 ratio over the Xbox One, that would give us, what, about 37 million PS4s and 19 million Xbox Ones.
So where does that put the poor Wii U? 10 million, 15 million?
Since the PS4 seems to be maintaining a rough 2:1 ratio over the Xbox One, that would give us, what, about 37 million PS4s and 19 million Xbox Ones.
So where does that put the poor Wii U? 10 million, 15 million?
Dr. Kitty Muffins
Member
I hope this means more cross gen Japanese games brought to the west. I know it sounds weird that I dislike cross gen games when it comes to Western companies, but in this situation you want these Japanese companies to both survive and make next gen games asap (whatever it takes) . I know I not the only one here who has made an exception when it comes to cross gen games coming from Japan.
TheMasterGoblin
Member
From what I see, including the transcript from AMD that I linked to, that's roughly total sold through to consumers (AMD consoles, so PS4 and XBO).
If sales are going to pick up it's going to be this year. By the end of the year both consoles will have a nice stable of games I think to justify a purchase.
Jacksinthe
Banned
So cold it BURNS.
Thanks for this.
Death2494 ignored me when I posted this in the other thread and refused to believe AMD were talking sold through. Unfortunately he's a bit anti Xbox and therefore doesn't believe anything that shows the Xbox in a somewhat positive light despite the facts being shown in front of him. It makes having a discussion with him painfully hard as he just shouts down everyone as being wrong despite not having any evidence whatsoever to back up his posts.
Besides, Aqua has already stated multiple times that all numbers are sold through and whilst I'm not saying that Aqua is always right I'm saying that she has a lot of knowledge in regards to sales and therefore would be in a better position than most people here to confirm. Especially when we have a direct statement from AMD, Take Two and Ubisoft saying sold to end users.
So you're telling me that the Xbox 360 sold double what the PS3 sold in 2014?
Because 29m-30m sold in means that Xbox One shipped 10m or less units cumulatively by the end of 2014.
It also means Xbox 360 had record sales (despite MS saying sales sharply declined) and is officially better selling than the PS2 or any other console in it's 9th year and sold almost the same as it sold in 2013. Also it means that sales outside for the USA for Xbox 360 were over 4x as much.
It also means that Xbox One had less than 600k units in channel compared o PS4's 1.4m.
Seriously. Maybe think of the implications before posting. Because if you think this is a sold in number (despite all the evidence it isn't) then you have a lot of explaining to do on how Xbox One was able to sell through all the stock it shipped and how Xbox 360 is now a record breaking console in it's 9th year selling better than the Wii U + PS3 combined.
As has been stated multiple times. AMD refer to sell through, as do Take Two and Ubisoft. We can say that the number will be between 28-30m sold through with it likely to be ~29m or over.
Therefore we can say that PS4 sold through more than 18.5m whilst Xbox One will be around or between ~9.6m to ~11.4m.
Don't know why don't you give us the actual sold numbers then I'll agree or disagree?
Edit: all those are just bunch of conjectures. So no hard numbers I guess?
And as been stated multiple times AMD referring to shipped number as stated by their press release. The *clarification* is just using MS's released number and those are all shipped. Show me when MS released sold thru number publicly as stated by AMD's exec.
Your low end X1 number points at close to 9.5m sold. So what exactly are you trying to argue here anyway?
Edit: all those are just bunch of conjectures. So no hard numbers I guess?
And as been stated multiple times AMD referring to shipped number as stated by their press release. The *clarification* is just using MS's released number and those are all shipped. Show me when MS released sold thru number publicly as stated by AMD's exec.
Your low end X1 number points at close to 9.5m sold. So what exactly are you trying to argue here anyway?
MS have never officially announced 10 million sold. 9.5 to 10 sounds about right to me.
They did on December 3rd
I did.... read my post again.
Wow... so just ignore my entire post.
I'm saying that all the numbers mentioned from AMD, Take Two and Ubisoft are sold through figures which puts total sell through between 28m-30m. More likely to be above 29m though as IDG is to be more trusted than Ubisoft.
They are not sold in numbers. If you think they're sold in numbers then you have a lot of explaining to do as I said above.
TheMasterGoblin
Member
Your welcome.
I saw the question being raised and noticed it being said that they corrected themselves later. This piqued my interest, what was really said?
Figuring it was a quarterly earnings call which has transcripts I just did a quick search and found it.
Superman00
Liverpool01
They said publicly available data, which means they may be using sold through numbers from Sony, and estimating sold through numbers from MS. Which makes sense why they said "nearly".
TheMasterGoblin
Member
Just as a point of fact in regards to Microsoft. You have to read their statements very carefully since they tend to muddle words and phrases which easily leads to confusion.
Microsoft usually gives us shipped data, but on occasion they will announce sold through data.
It's a confusing mess and you have to actually go to the statement(s) from Microsoft and figure it out each time.
Microsoft usually gives us shipped data, but on occasion they will announce sold through data.
It's a confusing mess and you have to actually go to the statement(s) from Microsoft and figure it out each time.
TheMasterGoblin
Member
They said most, not all. They have accurate data, and are saying most of that data is publicly available.
You said AMD wouldn't state sold through and must be talking shipped.
Again, thanks for your comment haha.
It shouldn't be this hard For people to interpret a sentence.
Superman00
Liverpool01
Getting NPD data should be easy for them, however rest of the world is a different matter. Which is also why I said "may", all we know is that PS4 and Xbox 1 has sold between 28 to nearly 30 million going by those 3 statements.
Like any other company, they will only give sold through numbers when it is something to boast about. Just like how Sony combine the PS2 and PS3 numbers. Sony has been giving us PS4 sold through cause it selling amazing and they are on top.
They did as stated by their press release unless you can give us hard numbers for
"most of that is publicly available data from what Sony and Microsoft have published."
TheMasterGoblin
Member
They don't need NPD data (though I'm sure they get that and many others from around the world).
Keep in mind that AMD makes the chips, and so they get sales data from Microsoft and Sony so they can plan their future road map and facility needs.
Welfare
Member
They did their 10 million announcement when they said they were approaching 10 million back in November. 10 million is old news now.