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AFP: 'Splatoon' outdoes 'Smash Bros' in Japan (w/ Neogaf mention in article)

Mory Dunz

Member
Yep, that's the reason for why Smash Wii U underperformed in Japan. 3DS version cannibalized considerable sales from the Wii U version. If Wii U version was avaliable first, it would sell better and even boost hardware sales as well. 3DS version coming first destroyed that. Yep, some will say this was a "smart move" and sold a lot on 3DS, and Wii U is a "dead system", but eventually, compromised one of the biggest prospects for hardware sales on Wii U.

Splatoon being Wii U exclusive is a major reason for why the system got some attention in Japan at the moment. A 3DS version, if was made, would took any attention from Wii U, like what happened with Smash Bros.

Smash U as an Exclusive wouldn't have done jack for Wii U hardware.


6+ million (what's the latest Smash 3DS number anyway) sales on the 3DS is worth far more than any benefits the Wii U would have seen.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Splatoon's success is a godsend for Nintendo, proving to them that they can take risks in a new big retail new IP, rather than mostly put their faith in existing IPs and only try new things in minor eShop new IPs like Dillon and Pushmo (nothing wrong with them mind you).

Point is, I wonder if this will indeed make Nintendo more open to more even out their efforts in original IPs for retail ala Splatoon on a similar scale and more often as their current IPs. Also for them to try out new genres again like with Splatoon.

A new 3D platformer IP, and also a new JRPG IP would be wonderful, both are genres shockingly put on the back burner from Nintendo, yes we have Mario for the former (DK's retired after the first go) and stuff like Pokemon, Xenoblade, and FE for the latter, but more new IPs of those from EAD Kyoto/Tokyo, or a major partnership could be wonderful.

I'm not sure we can say JRPGs are on the backburner for Nintendo. It's not a huge priority but they have games that cover the area.

Well, the more traditional ones are.

But still, given the sales of JRPGS recently they kind of own some of best selling ones in Pokemon, M&L, and Paper Mario. (and Yokai?). Just by being multi million sellers, it makes it decently high in the charts. (sad...)

but yeah in the more traditional sense there's been Xenoblade, XBX, Last Story, Pandora, FE#. So I guess that's something.

There's also handhelds.
 

bluedawgs

Banned
Not only this year, but of the intere generation. Splatoon is going to sell over Mario Kart 8, Mario Bros U for Wii U, and more than Final Fantasy XV and Dragon Quest XI for PS4...
Wonder if Splatoon will sell over 2,000,000 in Japan withouth digital. :O

tumblr_nm4mbvkxDL1ra1vfao1_400.gif

Yeah you're nuts. Dragon Quest will outsell Splatoon on the first day, Final Fantasy XV might do that as well
 

SURGEdude

Member
Well deserved. I'll be the first to admit my Wii U wasn't getting much attention since Bayonetta 2. On a whim I decided to pick up Splatoon and hot damn is it fun.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned

Done. If the first week of track ( Media Create or Famitsu, i'm fine with both ) Dragon Quest for PS4 sell more than what Splatoon will sell lifetime, you win.
If Dragon Quest for PS4 in it's first week sell less than Splatoon lifetime, i win.

Winner will have a month of avatar control from who lost.
 

bluedawgs

Banned
Done. If the first week of track ( Media Create or Famitsu, i'm fine with both ) Dragon Quest for PS4 sell more than what Splatoon will sell lifetime, you win.
If not Dragon Quest for PS4 in it's first week sell less than Splatoon lifetime, i win.

Winner will have a month of avatar control from who lost.

Sounds good
 
That's pretty crazy, Splatoon has quickly defined it's own identity and fanbase apart from Nintendo's other iconic franchises. Very awesome and well deserved.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Probs like 1.7 mill

As you can I see I don't think Splatoon will reach 2 million

So, assuming the PS4 will be at 3.5 million the week of Dragon Quest release ( and i'm generous ), you predict nearly 50% attach rate only in the first week?

yeah... that's seem pretty unlucky... i don't even think Dragon Quest will sell so much lifetime... but oh well, i'm fine with my bet just with Splatoon LT > DQ11 FW.
 

AniHawk

Member
Probs like 1.7 mill

As you can I see I don't think Splatoon will reach 2 million

if the ps4 doubles its sales for the next 52 weeks, and dragon quest xi launches about a year from now, that means dq xi would need to sell to 50% of the userbase on the ps4 in order for that to happen.

my personal guess is that splatoon only gets to 1 million with bundles, and dqxi launches at or around 1m on ps4.
 

mclem

Member
The Mii Fighter costume kinda makes me doubt Inklings will make it for Smash 4, but they're absolutely guaranteed for Smash 5.

If I was trying to make an Inkling for Smash, I'd probably want to get some concept of "inking the floor for mobility" into it, which might possibly need more of a base engine change to make work. That'd perhaps mean it wouldn't fit as DLC.
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
Splatoon is a better game in some key ways.

It has a real online multi focus.

Smash 4 is the most inaccessible in the series. Smash tour and classic are complete clusterfucks and the game lacks a proper tutorial or training mode
.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
my personal guess is that splatoon only gets to 1 million with bundles

And that's another impossible prediction.
Splatoon is NOW at 607,670 unit sold, and 23,403 only last week. Now, if Splatoon will sell by now with constancy 23,403 unit all week of this year ( but that's impossible, it will increase a lot during the holidays, Mario Kart sold nearly 40k in the last week of 2014), Splatoon will sell another 397,851 unit for a total of 1,005,521 unit ONLY IN 2015... And you think the sales will dropped like a rock and will stop to sell 2016 and 2017?

...Splatoon will sell over 1,000,000 unit only this year, and the sales won't stop next year, just like Mario Kart and all other Nintendo games.
 

bluedawgs

Banned
So, assuming the PS4 will be at 3.5 million the week of Dragon Quest release ( and i'm generous ), you predict nearly 50% attach rate only in the first week?

yeah... that's seem pretty unlucky... i don't even think Dragon Quest will sell so much lifetime... but oh well, i'm fine with my bet just with Splatoon LT > DQ11 FW.

if the ps4 doubles its sales for the next 52 weeks, and dragon quest xi launches about a year from now, that means dq xi would need to sell to 50% of the userbase on the ps4 in order for that to happen.

my personal guess is that splatoon only gets to 1 million with bundles, and dqxi launches at or around 1m on ps4.

ye you see here's the thing, i'm expecting the ps4 to sell over 2 million next year for various reasons such as the amount of games, the relevancy of those games, a large price cut, no cross platform handicaps, things of that nature. i also expect Dragon Quest to come out very late next year or in 2017.

another thing to keep in mind is that Final Fantasy XIII did 1.5 million first week on a 4.2 million user base, i expect the ps4 to have the same user base if not larger by the time Dragon Quest comes out. also keep in mind Dragon Quest is much bigger in Japan.

you guys are probs like lol this dude is way too optimistic but whatevs am i right
 

noshten

Member
Nope it's just you don't seem to go to the MCS threads. Right now MGS is posed to become the top selling PS4 game. Predictions for first week sales are 350K sales first week in Japan. You can draw your conclusions from this about the console market in Japan at the moment. Splatoon is pretty much guaranteed to be the best selling console game this year in Japan.

Below are the biggest opening weeks in Japan so far this gen

Ōkami;176948573 said:
Biggest opening weeks of the generation so far, only counting home consoles.


  1. [WIU] Mario Kart 8: 350.749
  2. [PS4] Knack: 322.083
  3. [PS4] Dragon Quest Heroes: 255.292
  4. [WIU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U: 244.747
  5. [WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U: 170.563
  6. [WIU] Splatoon: 156.610
  7. [PS4] Bloodborne: 150.245
  8. [WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate: 110.149
  9. [WIU]Super Mario 3D World: 106.967
  10. [WIU] Pikmin 3: 102.188
TPP should open on par with Mario Kart 8.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
ye you see here's the thing, i'm expecting the ps4 to sell over 2 million next year for various reasons such as the amount of games, the relevancy of those games, a large price cut, no cross platform handicaps, things of that nature. i also expect Dragon Quest to come out very late next year or in 2017.

another thing to keep in mind is that Final Fantasy XIII did 1.5 million first week on a 4.2 million user base, i expect the ps4 to have the same user base if not larger by the time Dragon Quest comes out. also keep in mind Dragon Quest is much bigger in Japan.

you guys are probs like lol this dude is way too optimistic but whatevs am i right

I see your comment in the Media Create charts, and you agree with me that PS4 should sell 1.2 / 1.25 million this year, right? And that's ok.
PS4 will sell by end of 2015 a total of 2.17 / 2.22 million in Japan.

Now. you predict 2 million IN THE INTERE 2016. week 1 to week 52.
What do you expect, Dragon Quest to release on PS4 during the week 52???

... Your PS4 2 million prediction is already a lot too much, but even if for some miracle will happen, PS4 will break 4.2 million only during the final week of the year, and i seriusly doubt Dragon Quest will release on PS4 during the last week of 2016.

Dude, i respect your opinion, but that's just impossible.
 

shaowebb

Member
I really feel uneasy about media referring to us here on Neogaf as often as they do now. We're large and loud... that occasionally might lead folks to publicize the wrong aspects of us. They didn't in this article, but I worry one day they might listen to someone with no clue what they are talking about and it'll snowball into publishers changing their minds on things they should stick to their guns about...
 
Dragon Quest 11 probably won't do over Splatoon's lifetime sales in week 1 on PS4. It's also on 3DS which is where most of it's sales will come from.

I also don't think it's accurate to say Splatoon is outdoing Smash Bros, considering the bulk of Smash sales are on 3DS whereas Splatoon is an exclusive. There's no way to know whether more people would have bought Smash 4 if it hadn't already come out weeks before on a much more popular system.
 

Regulus Tera

Romanes Eunt Domus
if the ps4 doubles its sales for the next 52 weeks, and dragon quest xi launches about a year from now, that means dq xi would need to sell to 50% of the userbase on the ps4 in order for that to happen.

my personal guess is that splatoon only gets to 1 million with bundles, and dqxi launches at or around 1m on ps4.
When DQXI achieves DQ-like numbers in Japan, it will be the 3DS version that does it.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
There's no way to know whether more people would have bought Smash 4 if it hadn't already come out weeks before on a much more popular system.

Of course withouth 3DS version Smash for Wii U would sold A LOT more, probabily less than Mario Kart 8 lifetime, but more in the firsts weeks.

Still, Splatoon will probabily beat MK8 LT, so, even withouth the 3DS version, i doubt Smash would beat Splatoon lifetime...
 
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