CrocMother
Banned
Think you read that quote wrong...
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Analysis: Poor turnout not responsible for Trump's victory.
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Think you read that quote wrong...
Barajas_201
Member
I-It's almost as if YAS QUEEN was a corrupt and uncharismatic candidate... If only there was another, more genuine, candidate that statistically polled better than both Trump and YAS QUEEN in the states that decided the election, if only... /s
BERNIE 2020.
Chaos2Frozen
Member
Trump has even LESS charisma than Obama.
Like I don't get it Americans- Hillary is not as good as Obama, I guess I better vote for Trump!
There's a pretty simple reason that most of these white people were flipping: https://www.thenation.com/article/fear-of-diversity-made-people-more-likely-to-vote-trump/
"Working Class" is a misnomer at this point. They were rural whites who were flipping in droves.
yanipheonu
Member
He had low chances to win, but still a chance, and he managed to win. With the electoral college running things against the popular vote, that's about the best you can expect. He managed to get enough votes in the right places.
jack_package_200
Banned
How dare the gay community on GAF and outside of this place have a slogan of support of Hillary Clinton.
Also this.
Chaos2Frozen
Member
Should have won the primaries then.
SolarPowered
Member
Trump isn't charismatic to Navy Blue Neogaf, but that doesn't mean he isn't appealing to certain segments of the American electorate. I thought we learned the hard way that GAF isn't representative of the populace at large back in November.
giant_frying_pan
Member
Of course it wasn't responsible - he got 2.8 million fewer votes!
Yoshimitsu126
Member
Man history really repeats itself doesn't it? Does US need to wait several more decades until a woman president doesnt seem like a power hungry politician?
jack_package_200
Banned
I will never fathom how anyone can find a man who struggles to string words together into a coherent sentence charismatic or having the "I want to have a beer with that man" quality.
The Albatross
Member
From a winning perspective, sure (tho it's no sure thing), but Bernie played a lot of the fear of Chinese and Mexicans taking her jobs as Trump did. A lot of similar policy recommendations, just not as blatant about the Yellow Scare rhetoric.
Still I'd obviously rather Bernie's populism than Trump's populism.
smokeandmirrors
Banned
operating under the assumption that whoever runs for president as a woman won't be viewed like that.
unless you're a republican women, then you're fine
I really don't buy into that. I've grown up and have been surrounded by many who were desperate/continue to be while on the brink of homelessness with families. That's on top of the other forces weighing them down by just where they come from, what language they speak, and what they look like. They continue to not be conned by someone such as Trump. Not like Obama brought them a wave is prosperity either. These people were looking for someone to sell them bullshit and wrap it up in a way that's easy for them to get behind. Trump happened to do it using immigrants and muslims as the wrapping paper and those willing lined up. They do need help and they are willing to try and get it by trampling over others.
Glendemonium
Member
It's not that mind blowing.
Obama promised hope and change. Not the kind of change they were expecting.
The hate boner for Hilary (much of it justified) and feeling left out once more and more jobs under Obama were being shipped away from the US.
Trump came along saying similar things like Obama, promise after promise so it's not surprising people fell for it.
Now we're all screwed for it.
Lots of us working class white people were better off by 2016 than we were in 2008. I found as some who I knew were doing a bit better, they also got increasingly racist and more upset about paying taxes.
"I thought I was doing fine until I added up how much taxes were taken out of my checks for the year!" -breakroom chatter
Once some white people are out of the poorhouse, they suddenly get the idea that their taxes are going to people who don't deserve it.
"I thought I was doing fine until I added up how much taxes were taken out of my checks for the year!" -breakroom chatter
Once some white people are out of the poorhouse, they suddenly get the idea that their taxes are going to people who don't deserve it.
Chaos2Frozen
Member
What's his charm then?
Why? They're perfectly fine with power hungry male politicians and wannabe- dictators.
GillianSeed79
Member
The promise of money and economic stability probably trumps everything else for these people. I voted for Hillary. Democrats saved the country from a second great depression but the jobs that were gained back aren't as good as the ones that were lost. Large swaths of the country live in economically depressed areas. Shit is like a 3rd world country in a lot of places. Hillary was kind of candidate and lacked charisma but the shit she talked about during the campaign rarely talked about actual policy and how hers would directly help people as opposed to say Bernie. Also people are fucking stupid. If one candidate says they are going to bring your job back and the other is talking about social issues exclusively, stupid people are going to vote for the person who promises you money. Obama offered hope. Hillary offered the status quo, which clearly wasn't enough for some voters. Also fuck Trump.
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
That and her whole career is marked with compromise and capitulation that made her promises of improvement look pretty hollow, and her intense ties to and profiting from corporate America made her general deference to generic technocratic pragmatism look a hell of a lot like someone enmeshed in the worst aspects of the system.
It is what it is. It was a change election, and enough voters in the right places said "Fuck it, I know what I'm getting from Hilldawg, let's see what this guy does". Put up someone with better appeal next time, distance yourself from left-wing extremism that goes disproportionately after these people you lost, and the ship rights itself.
The Albatross
Member
From a campaigning perspective both were similar. The conservative right bemoaned the lack of substance in Obama's 2008 campaign, only to end up basically lifting it for Trump's 2016. Ultimately unlearned middle Americans went for both.
Hope and Change and Make America Great Again are very compelling messages for people who thinks that Washington doesn't work for them. "I'm with her" doesn't sell as well. It was a slogan that I felt motivated by thinking "finally!", but it doesn't resonate with anybody other than coastal liberals.
SolidusDave
Member
So that covers a portion of previous democrats voters turning to Trump.
But what if the US has a total voter turnout of, let's say, a modest 65%?
What demographics make up HALF of the eligible voter population that rarely/never votes?
But what if the US has a total voter turnout of, let's say, a modest 65%?
What demographics make up HALF of the eligible voter population that rarely/never votes?
People vote according to their self interest. If they voted for Obama 8 years ago and their situation has not only failed to improve but actually gotten worse it makes total sense that they would flip come next election.
Sarah Palin, George W Bush. You can have high charisma with or without high intelligence. And Trump can speak normally there are videos on youtube of him behaving normally. He's a conman and the way he talks is a calculated act.
She's a terrible liar and that's a really bad trait for a politician running for office..
A lot of Romney votes flipped too, they just didn't all flip to Clinton, which was a problem.
If she had too many facts she sure didn't show them
Study: Hillary Clintons TV ads were almost entirely policy-free
jack_package_200
Banned
Her other issue was trying to appeal to human decency in her messaging/ads.
The Albatross
Member
There is obviously some allure to Trump's personality. It's the reason hes had his own TV show, has been in the tabloids for 30 years, and why if you try to think of any other New York real estate investors you'll be hard pressed to come up with anybody.
I wouldn't discount the "have a beer with..." Index. It helped carry Obama over Romney in 2012 (Romney was notably stiff and obviously doesn't drink), but in this case, don't think I'd want to drink with either Clinton or Trump given that Trump doesn't drink. I'd kill to have a beer and wings with Obama though. And hell, I'm no republican, but I'd happily catch a beer with George Bush too.
Wat.
Why don't people ever blame Hillary Clinton's campaign? Like at all? How about the fact that Clinton didn't even bother visiting these states? Or that preferred fundraising in NY to stepping foot in Wisconsin?
Hillary Clinton gave the image of a rich white elitist, which is ironic considering Trump is an actual billionaire yet managed to make himself appear more like "one of them" than Hillary did. Sad!
What's even sadder is that both Obama and Bill recommended her to visit these states and warned her, but she got cocky and didn't all the same.
TheLaughingStock
Member
Why is that? Obama ran on hope and change. Donald ran on America failing and in need of a change. Two arguments against the status quo.
The Albatross
Member
Yep, they both ran anti-washington campaigns. The same that brought Democrats to Congress in 2006 (against the military establishment) and Republicans back to congress in 2010 with the rise of the Tea Party.
Democrats incorrectly took Obama's win in 2012 despite congressional losses on 2014 as an indication that Americans were open to the Washington status quo.
And I'm part of the problem here -- I thoroughly endorsed Clinton in this primary and general. Not "to win" but because I thought she had the strongest policy, experience, and temperament for the job.
Massive Duck. C.M.
Banned
Identity politics aren't just for the intolerant left, huh
Is it liberating being this dense
Is it liberating being this dense
So surprising that this turned into Sanders Vs. Clinton yet again....
Anyway, it's fair to say that Trump has tons of charisma and has shown an ability to seize upon on a reliable 30-35% base as an absolute floor, no matter what he does. That's impressive and scary.
I don't think anyone doubts that HRC was a smarter, more capable candidate for POTUS, but to put it simply, she got outworked and played to her diverse base believing that in 2016, we were enough to overcome the idiotic masses. Unfortunately, she was almost right.
Because while that worked in a big picture sense (winning the popular vote decisively) not actually doing that hard work, going to those afflicted places in the rust belt that she took for granted, did them/us in.
Which is unfortunate, because in the end, no matter how many different hats she's worn as a supposed Arkansan/NY-bred Pol, she's ultimately born and raised in the Midwest and shares those personal sensibilities with those who didn't vote for her. Which is a real shame because if she/her campaign made an attempt to go to those places, be herself and connect (much like she did when she faced off against Obama in 08), she'd have been President right now.
Anyway, it's fair to say that Trump has tons of charisma and has shown an ability to seize upon on a reliable 30-35% base as an absolute floor, no matter what he does. That's impressive and scary.
I don't think anyone doubts that HRC was a smarter, more capable candidate for POTUS, but to put it simply, she got outworked and played to her diverse base believing that in 2016, we were enough to overcome the idiotic masses. Unfortunately, she was almost right.
Because while that worked in a big picture sense (winning the popular vote decisively) not actually doing that hard work, going to those afflicted places in the rust belt that she took for granted, did them/us in.
Which is unfortunate, because in the end, no matter how many different hats she's worn as a supposed Arkansan/NY-bred Pol, she's ultimately born and raised in the Midwest and shares those personal sensibilities with those who didn't vote for her. Which is a real shame because if she/her campaign made an attempt to go to those places, be herself and connect (much like she did when she faced off against Obama in 08), she'd have been President right now.
madstarr12
Member
Lol, I hope not.
Caddywompus
Member
It really shouldn't. You overestimate the average America's interest in politics. There's a reason why we've ping ponged between red and blue presidents for the last ... hell longer than most of GAF been alive.
With only two options when you want change you only have one other party to turn to. What both Obama and Trump have in common is that they represented change in the establishment. America is sick of the way our Government is run and hope voting for someone on the outside to change things from the inside.
Unknown One
Member
I don't think it was racism because as the article says white people swifted from democrats to republicans so they swifted from voting Obama to trump. Why would a racist vote Obama? If they were racists wouldn't they vote for the white candidate instead of Obama? I just think people should accept that Clinton was a way worse candidate than Obama that is why the Democrats lost.
Pretty sure more recent stuff put it at like 70k votes.
Angelus Errare
Banned
Are they sure? Cause all the armchairs analysts said Trump won because black people.
Because they expected black people to start "behaving" after Obama was elected. What many of these voters wanted out of the Obama presidency was not what they got.
To quote this article again: https://www.thenation.com/article/fear-of-diversity-made-people-more-likely-to-vote-trump/
Clinton won 23-held GOP districts in suburban areas nationwide. (enough to flip the House) The Rural/Urban polarization is real, and this election accelerated it hard.
encephalon
Member
"How could this be racism if they voted for Obama?"
How many black people have been told they're "one of the good ones?"
How many black people have been told they're "one of the good ones?"
StrategyFan
Member
turnout doesn't matter that much for the electoral college
the election was won by the less popular candidate because rural white people get more electoral votes per capita
the election was won by the less popular candidate because rural white people get more electoral votes per capita
Err, which candidate was that.
Clinton outpolled Sanders head to head easily in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, etc.
That right there is enough to tip the election. Not to say Sanders wouldn't have done better or worse (that question is extremely difficult to answer given he never received the scrutiny of a nominee), but pretending it was oh so clear is silly.
CrocMother
Banned
The polls are worthless.
Defeated herself by winning the popular vote by 2.7 million and a margin of less than 1% in key electoral battleground states. Literally tens of thousands of votes or less in some states.
By the numbers, Trump won because of years of strategic gerrymandering paying off in conjunction with the archaic joke that is the electoral college. This, of course, is a very different discussion than "why did people vote for Trump?"
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