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December 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 13th

S

slavesnyder

Member
Did Abdiel already give some info? Always delighted to read a report from the real world.
Any other retail-related (and reliable) statements yet?
 
A

allan-bh

Member
slavesnyder said:
Did Abdiel already give some info? Always delighted to read a report from the real world.
Any other retail-related (and reliable) statements yet?
Click to expand...

Abdiel's infos are interesting but for november he said that XOne and PS4 sales was similar and XOne crushed PS4 on NPD.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
allan-bh said:
Abdiel's infos are interesting but for november he said that XOne and PS4 sales was similar and XOne crushed PS4 on NPD.
Click to expand...

BF certainly helped the PS4 with that GTAV bundle and the Xbox One not really having as good of a bundle there as Target and Walmart.

But he also said mid November that the One was losing steam, so maybe Best Buy is PS4 biased :p
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
dolemite said:
I thought the GTAV bundle numbers for Black Friday were around 340k or so? I remember there was a number mentioned in the Nov. NPD thread.
Click to expand...

Right, that's the absolute minimum we have for PS4 sales in the Black Friday week. There was also the LBP3 + Lego Batman bundle, but I don't know if it did that much...counting that and sales outside Black Friday itself, it seems the 450,000 estimate could be quite spot on. Whoever can share this with us: how much did the LBP3 bundle sell in November, after all? Thanks in advance :D
 
P

Pathfinder

Member
I was damn close with my November predictions.

[XB1] 1300k
[PS4] 1100k

So I'll play again for December.

[XB1] 1120k
[PS4] 950k
[WIU] 380k
[3DS] 400k
[360] 250k
[PS3] 130k
 
D

Darth Smurf X

Member
I finally get to participate in one of these threads -squeals with delight-

[360] 300k
[3DS] 500k
[PS3] 90k
[PS4] 1100k
[WIU] 350k
[XB1] 1100k

edited for correct formatting
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
allan-bh said:
Abdiel's infos are interesting but for november he said that XOne and PS4 sales was similar and XOne crushed PS4 on NPD.
Click to expand...

if he would always be spot on, NPD could pack their bags and leave. all the gaming industry needed was the abdiel report....
but i like to read his statements.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Now, time for a return: Amazon.com charts! :D

Amazon.com stats / comparisons (PS4/Xbox One/Wii U + 3DS)

As of January 7th, 2015, 19:46 GMT

The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D
Limited edition ($49.99) - sold the hell out
Standard ($39.99) - 45th

Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS ($39.99) - 7th

One AC bundle ($383; sold by BuyForIt and fulfilled by Amazon.com; only 6 left in stock) - 9th

PS4 ($399) - 10th

Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
One ($39.99) - 11th
PS4 ($39.99) - 15th

inFAMOUS: Second Son ($19.99) - 12th

Super Smash Bros. for Wii U ($57.82) - 16th

The Last of Us: Remastered ($29.99) - 18th

Pokémon
Alpha Sapphire ($39.69) - 19th
Omega Ruby ($39.35) - 20th

GTAV
PS4 ($55.44) - 22nd
One ($57.72) - 30th

Halo: The Master Chief Collection ($48.75) - 26th

Far Cry 4
PS4 ($43.95; sold by external retailer) - 37th
One ($51.16) - 56th

Middle Earth: Shadow of Mordor
PS4 ($39.99) - 39th
One ($39.99) - 48th

Mario Kart 8 ($53.89) - 41st

NBA2K15
PS4 ($39.99; sold by Cooper.C and fulfilled by Amazon) - 42nd
One ($46.73) - 57th

Destiny
PS4 ($50.88) - 43rd
One ($50.29; sold by Phi Group and fulfilled by Amazon) - 51st

Wii U 3D World bundle ($305; sold by M&R Store and fulfilled by Amazon; only 7 in stock) - 52nd

Assassin's Creed: Paritè
PS4 ($41; sold by Shark Distributors and fulfilled by Amazon) - 55th
One ($41; sold by Shark Distributors and fulfilled by Amazon) - 133rd

Minecraft: Xbox One Edition ($19.99) - 58th

LEGO Batman 3: Beyond Gotham
3DS ($17.99; sold by Rogers Media Store; only 6 left in stock) - 59th
One ($39.99) - 311th
Wii U ($29.99) - 340th
PS4 ($39.99) - 359th

Madden NFL 15
PS4 ($47.41; only 4 left in stock) - 68th
One ($44.99; sold by Game Buyer and fulfilled by Amazon; in stock on January 10th) - 127th

Dragon Age: Inquisition
PS4 ($57.21; sold by Tech99) - 76th
One ($51.85) - 115th

Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker ($39.99) - 86th

Just Dance 2015
Wii U ($25.99) - 96th
One ($38.78; sold by POLLYWOG and fulfilled by Amazon; in stock on January 13th) - 207th
PS4 ($39.95; sold by noTax Wholesale and fulfilled by Amazon; only 15 left in stock) - 478th

PS4 Black Friday GTAV bundle ($479; sold by Legendary Juny and fulfilled by Amazon) - 99th

Killzone Shadow Fall ($19.99) - 100th

Report from the Amiibocalypse

Captain Falcon ($33.98; sold by Limitless Shop and fulfilled by Amazon; only 2 in stock) - 80th
Zelda ($12.96) - 84th
Diddy Kong ($12.99) - 89th
Samus ($12.96) - 101th
Luigi ($12.96) - 104th
Mario ($12.96) - 142nd
Kirby ($12.96) - 146th
Pit ($35.99; sold by DigitalWorldUS) - 150th
Toon Link (sold the fuck out) - 175th
Pikachu ($12.96) - 184th
Sheik (sold the fuck out) - 232nd
Fox ($30.28; sold by GameSeek) - 256th
Link ($21.94; sold by Downtown Games and fulfilled by Amazon; in stock on January 10th) - 265th
Little Mac ($36.99; sold by POPnGAMES) - 286th
Peach ($12.96) - 289th
Bowser (sold the fuck out) - 315th
Donkey Kong ($19.94; sold by DownTown Games and fulfilled by Amazon; only 2 left in stock) - 707th
Wii Fit Trainer (sold the fuck out) - 709th

Upcoming releases

Saints Row IV: Re-Elected + Gat Out of Hell
PS4 ($49.99) - 573rd
One ($49.99) - 924th

Dying Light
PS4 ($59.99) - 160th
One ($59.99) - 294th

Evolve
One ($59.99) - 496th
PS4 ($59.96) - 899th
 
D

Darth Smurf X

Member
Steverulez said:
You should adjust your PS4/XB1 estimates to the correct formatting in the OP
Click to expand...

Good call. I made the mistake of looking at someone else's (who shall remain nameless to protect the guilty) example just before posting.

Actually, I take that back, so maybe it can be fixed next month. This is what I was looking at from the initial post:

November's Results (estimates)
1. XB1 ~ 1.23m
2. PS4 ~ 826K
3. 3DS ~ 515K
4. 360 ~ 310K
5. WIU ~ 240K
6. PS3 ~ 89K
Click to expand...
 
R

RedRooster

Member
I thought Sony reported they were the highest selling console in November & December added together? Or was that WW instead? They got crushed in November, so they must've crushed back in December.

Hence, I will guess:

[XB1] 745k
[PS4] 1180k
[WIU] 335k
[3DS] 370k
[360] 240k
[PS3] 110k
 
A

airmangataosenai

Member
[XB1] 1800k
[PS4] 1350k
[3DS] 650k
[WIU] 440k
[360] 310k
[PS3] 130k

I have no idea what PS3/360 will do, I can't wait for them to be removed from the prediction threads.
 
F

Fehyd

Banned
December is going to be interesting. Xbone sales seemed to really slow midway through. PS4 sales were steady, but there aren't a whole lot of units to come-by at the retailer I work for.

By comparison, the Assassin's Creed bundles have been channel stuffed, either intentionally or because demand dried-up. A few distribution centers have upwards of 4000 units just sitting there.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Fehyd said:
December is going to be interesting. Xbone sales seemed to really slow midway through. PS4 sales were steady, but there aren't a whole lot of units to come-by at the retailer I work for.

By comparison, the Assassin's Creed bundles have been channel stuffed, either intentionally or because demand dried-up. A few distribution centers have upwards of 4000 units just sitting there.
Click to expand...

How were sales for the Xbox One from the beginning to the middle of the month? Like moderate at the beginning then really slow later, or huge then really slow?
 
F

Fehyd

Banned
Welfare said:
How were sales for the Xbox One from the beginning to the middle of the month? Like moderate at the beginning then really slow later, or huge then really slow?
Click to expand...

I'd actually say that it almost seemed like things really started tapering off after Black Friday.

Its hard to tell since it was selling like gangbusters up until that point, and there were lots of PS4's around. A few weeks later there's pallets of Xbones sitting there and the PS4 shelves were empty.

Closer to moderate I think, but I'm only in one part of the country. Abdiel's experiences might be different from mine however.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
slavesnyder said:
if he would always be spot on, NPD could pack their bags and leave. all the gaming industry needed was the abdiel report....
but i like to read his statements.
Click to expand...

Hey guys. After November, while my numbers were accurate for our stores, I think the holiday chaos distorts the larger picture (more diverse sales, and much larger sales in locations that normally don't do as much business). As such, I'm being cautious with sweeping statements.

That being said, the numbers were again very close for us, some of the ps4 deals were really solid this month, and the Xb1 continued to do exceptionally well. I'm not making a call for this month because I have no idea how the larger trends pan out across retail at large. Good luck everyone!
 
Bitch Pudding

Bitch Pudding

Member
[XB1] 1000k
[PS4] 800k
[3DS] 500k
[WIU] 350k
[360] 350k
[PS3] 15ok

May I ask who won November 2014 predictions? The winner of October was mentioned in the OP of Nov.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Abdiel said:
Hey guys. After November, while my numbers were accurate for our stores, I think the holiday chaos distorts the larger picture (more diverse sales, and much larger sales in locations that normally don't do as much business). As such, I'm being cautious with sweeping statements.

That being said, the numbers were again very close for us, some of the ps4 deals were really solid this month, and the Xb1 continued to do exceptionally well. I'm not making a call for this month because I have no idea how the larger trends pan out across retail at large. Good luck everyone!
Click to expand...
this is all we want to know. thank you for this insight.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Fehyd said:
December is going to be interesting. Xbone sales seemed to really slow midway through. PS4 sales were steady, but there aren't a whole lot of units to come-by at the retailer I work for.

By comparison, the Assassin's Creed bundles have been channel stuffed, either intentionally or because demand dried-up. A few distribution centers have upwards of 4000 units just sitting there.
Click to expand...

Dat tag :lol
 
A

airmangataosenai

Member
Also, what am I missing here? Why do so many people have XB1 down over November and PS4 flat or only slightly up despite the longer tracking period and December historically being the strongest sales month?
 
P

Pathfinder

Member
airmangataosenai said:
Also, what am I missing here? Why do so many people have XB1 down over November and PS4 flat or only slightly up despite the longer tracking period and December historically being the strongest sales month?
Click to expand...

There's some chatter that sales for Xbox One may have decreased some from November.

I adjusted my prediction to reflect that.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
CosmicQueso said:
Like some kind of scarlet letter? Well, that would be one way to make it easier for lurkers to sort out posters. No thanks.
Click to expand...

no no...not for leakers or anything like that.

just for the guys who work at retail and say something about sell-through and people get all crazy and think they're lying.
 
M

Miles X

Member
Aquamarine said:
no no...not for leakers or anything like that.

just for the guys who work at retail and say something about sell-through and people get all crazy and think they're lying.
Click to expand...

Not calling anyone out specifically (because I don't think it happens, at least I havn't seen it) but working at retail doesn't mean they're not lying either you know ... people have bias's and agendas they can hide.
 
T

The Shogun

Banned
Aquamarine said:
bish really needs to start adding that green "verified" checkmark next to people's tags, hahaha
Click to expand...

Fehyd said:
I'd actually say that it almost seemed like things really started tapering off after Black Friday.

Its hard to tell since it was selling like gangbusters up until that point, and there were lots of PS4's around. A few weeks later there's pallets of Xbones sitting there and the PS4 shelves were empty.

Closer to moderate I think, but I'm only in one part of the country. Abdiel's experiences might be different from mine however.
Click to expand...

CosmicQueso said:
Like some kind of scarlet letter? Well, that would be one way to make it easier for lurkers to sort out posters. No thanks.
Click to expand...

Aquamarine said:
no no...not for leakers or anything like that.

just for the guys who work at retail and say something about sell-through and people get all crazy and think they're lying.
Click to expand...

Haha I'm in on the tag too
 
J

jhmtehgamr20xx

Banned
Okay....here it comes...

[PS4] 1,353,000
[XBO] 1,001,000
[Wii U] 350,000
[3DS] 380,000
[360] 589,000
[PS3] 285,000

The PS4 number...well from Sony's recent figures they said they sold 4.5 million to customers worldwide in December. A lot of business-and-numbers-minded people here have estimated NA is about 33% of PS4's base. So it was pretty easy to figure it out from there. Others say 36% tho but I think that'd translate to too much a high number

That's just my initial guess tho. I might change it b/c I don't think PS4 actually sold anywhere near that high, but only because of Chinese launch this month. Sony probably had to reserve units for that, just like early last year w/ the Japanese launch eating into NA sales some.

Some people are saying they've seen XBO soften in sales. Personally though I don't think it's by too big a margin, they probably still did a million at least.

Might revise some of these over the next few days.

Not bothering with Vita; my brain can't convince itself single-digit numbers exist.

Welfare said:
It was 4.1 million sold between November 23 and January 3 (4th in Asian countries).
Click to expand...
Whoops, my bad! Revising now.
 
S

spatenfloot

Member
Fehyd said:
December is going to be interesting. Xbone sales seemed to really slow midway through. PS4 sales were steady, but there aren't a whole lot of units to come-by at the retailer I work for.

By comparison, the Assassin's Creed bundles have been channel stuffed, either intentionally or because demand dried-up. A few distribution centers have upwards of 4000 units just sitting there.
Click to expand...
Which retailer is that?
 
S

spatenfloot

Member
allan-bh said:
Abdiel's infos are interesting but for november he said that XOne and PS4 sales was similar and XOne crushed PS4 on NPD.
Click to expand...
He works at Best Buy which had weaker deals than Target and other places. It just shows that one retailer doesn't provide the whole picture.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
Fehyd said:
I'd actually say that it almost seemed like things really started tapering off after Black Friday.

Its hard to tell since it was selling like gangbusters up until that point, and there were lots of PS4's around. A few weeks later there's pallets of Xbones sitting there and the PS4 shelves were empty.

Closer to moderate I think, but I'm only in one part of the country. Abdiel's experiences might be different from mine however.
Click to expand...

Thank you!^^ The more perspective the better!^^


Abdiel said:
Hey guys. After November, while my numbers were accurate for our stores, I think the holiday chaos distorts the larger picture (more diverse sales, and much larger sales in locations that normally don't do as much business). As such, I'm being cautious with sweeping statements.

That being said, the numbers were again very close for us, some of the ps4 deals were really solid this month, and the Xb1 continued to do exceptionally well. I'm not making a call for this month because I have no idea how the larger trends pan out across retail at large. Good luck everyone!
Click to expand...

Thanks again!^^ Any idea how the return to 400USD has affected XB1 sales?
 
H

hepburn3d

Member
[XB1] 1299K
[PS4] 1299K
[3DS] 599K
[WIU] 599K
[360] 299K
[PS3] 199K

Side note: Is this front page reservation thing a new thing? I find it annoying. I mean where's the line? Usually the front page is filled with people who have something to say as it's on their mind. Now front pages are starting to become "reserved" entirely. So you get no useful info from browsing the first page. Not having a go at anyone and you're entitled to do it as it's not a rule. Just wanted to vent.
 
D

DustyVonEric

Member
slavesnyder said:
Did Abdiel already give some info? Always delighted to read a report from the real world.
Any other retail-related (and reliable) statements yet?
Click to expand...

allan-bh said:
Abdiel's infos are interesting but for november he said that XOne and PS4 sales was similar and XOne crushed PS4 on NPD.
Click to expand...

Welfare said:
BF certainly helped the PS4 with that GTAV bundle and the Xbox One not really having as good of a bundle there as Target and Walmart.

But he also said mid November that the One was losing steam, so maybe Best Buy is PS4 biased :p
Click to expand...

Also remember, he's at Best Buy where sales could have been more even compared to say Target, who had those insane X1 deals.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Thread seems slow? People aren't as interested as most people expect an XB1 win maybe?

Here is some food for thoughts:

Amazon Rankings are worth what they're worth (and are to be used with a good dose of salt), but here is what the Yearly ranking for 2014 shows us currently, on Amazon.com, for Systems:

#4 - PS4 standard
#12 - XB1 ACU bundle
#37 - PS4 Destiny White bundle
#88 - PS4 GTA V + TLOU Black Firday bundle

Unless theres a heck of a lot of orders to still ship, I can't see a lot of gap closing for the XB1 in December (but I do see the XB1 winning December overall).
 
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