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[haimon]

Nintendo who for the past 2 launches have managed to bungle them big time, and have had 1 device manager to right itself while still massively undersell its predecessor, is a company that we believe can launch a new platform have it covered by plenty of media who will then write about its state when launched.

Anyone really expects the mainstream media to come back to it during the so called real launch 6 months later and then start saying how great it is?

Sounds like a pipe dream to me.

 

[heringer]

I wish Nintendo had used some Shield TV games (Borderlands 2, The Witness, maybe even Half-Life 2) to spice up the launch lineup. I imagine it would be really easy to port.

Though I guess a bunch of old ports could send the wrong message.

 

[qanters]

Nintendo who for the past 2 launches have managed to bungle them big time, and have had 1 device manager to right itself while still massively undersell its predecessor, is a company that we believe can launch a new platform have it covered by plenty of media who will then write about its state when launched.

Anyone really expects the mainstream media to come back to it during the so called real launch 6 months later and then start saying how great it is?

Sounds like a pipe dream to me.

Why is that so out of the question?

 

[Ushojax]

They are launching in March just to get in before the fiscal year ends. It seems like the actual pipeline of software will start flowing from June onwards, basically after E3.

3DS and Wii U had similarly half-baked launches but I think Zelda will mitigate a lot of the damage. A potential GOAT AAA title in such a franchise will probably be enough to keep things ticking over until Mario Kart, you can launch a platform with a thin slate but you'd better have a Mario 64-level title if you are going to do it.

 

[AniHawk]

Anyone really expects the mainstream media to come back to it during the so called real launch 6 months later and then start saying how great it is?

this was the narrative for the wii u during the holiday 2013 season.

 

[haimon]

Why is that so out of the question?

Have you seen the mainstream media do such a thing before?

Have they come back to devices after they have been relaunched and have they caused them to become a true success?

Ps3 which might be the closest to this was never able to become a true success in the US. It owes it's userbase to Europe where it was never a true failure, like it was in the USA.

 

[Caipirinha]

I think it's launch year, should everything hit, is far stronger than either the xb1 or the PS4.

lmao

 

[Pureauthor]

Interesting perspective to take actually!

Having the "weak" launch now gives them time to iron out all the account and network related kinks in time for Christmas, as well as allowing their developers more time to finish up which should improve the quality of the games.

I don't know if there is any weight to this theory, but it's certainly possible! I just wish us early adopters didn't have to pay more to "test it out"

Unless, you don't have to. You can just wait a few months and get a bundle/price drop instead.

 

[Starchasing]

this was the narrative for the wii u during the holiday 2013 season.

Mainstream media is irrelevant for switch demo. Have you seen the printed ads? They are all hipstery millenials.

 

[RSP]

It's funny how people try to see Nintendo's shortcomings as some kind of masterplan that will all work out in the end.

They are launching an underspecced device at a premium price because they know their audience will eat it. They know they need a couple of titles per year to drive sales, and that is what they will bring.

They also know that loyal 3rd parties will always bring games to their platform, but they simply don't need an influx of < $20 indie titles to draw a lot of attention to their system. If anything, they probably think the quality isn't there to really push those games to their fanbase.

Nintendo is actively blocking devs from releasing multi-platform titles for the first six months of release. I bet there could have been 50 games on that list if they didn't have that attitidue.

 

[Spy]

They are launching in March just to get in before the fiscal year ends. It seems like the actual pipeline of software will start flowing from June onwards, basically after E3.

3DS and Wii U had similarly half-baked launches but I think Zelda will mitigate a lot of the damage. A potential GOAT AAA title in such a franchise will probably be enough to keep things ticking over until Mario Kart, you can launch a platform with a thin stale but you'd better have a Mario 64-level title if you are going to do it.

The problem is that Zelda is a port of a Wii U game. We'll see how many decide to upgrade platforms to play it on the Switch. The same goes for Mario Kart.

 

[The Last One]

I think it's launch year, should everything hit, is far stronger than either the xb1 or the PS4. Day 1 is skimpy though.

It's not event stronger than PS4's Q1 and Q2.

 

[LordKano]

Unless, you don't have to. You can just wait a few months and get a bundle/price drop instead.

That's what I'm doing. I think the Switch will be very attractive during the holidays. And in the meantime, you can spare money/just play on your other consoles. E3 isn't that far away.

 

[novabolt]

Kinda obvious, yeah. Real launch is for the end of the year.

Won't it be too late by then?

 

[Fahzgoolin]

I feel like all of our frustrations are reasonable.

But as Kyle Bosman said in hypothetical role play of Nintendo: "We have your preorders. We are sold out right now."

 

[Lucifon]

Giving away 10 NES ROMs and 10 GBA ROMs costs Nintendo roughly zero dollars. I think that's a price they're willing to pay for the millions of dollars they make up front.

Sure, if they do something like that again that'll be great. Acknowledging the hardcore fans with a gesture is a great move. I wouldn't be surprised if a 3DS style pricedrop happens again, just hoping they acknowledge the early adopters.

 

[Taker666]

i think it'd be no dock, no grip, and 1 2 switch for $249.99. later they can also throw in a year of the online thing for free and mario kart 8 for a black friday bundle.

I don't see it. The dock and grip combined likely cost less than $5 to manufacture.

 

[Milly Osworth]

Soft as in weak yep. Although I have a hard time calling a launch with Breath of the Wild weak, everything outside of that game is weak. Or soft as you call it.

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

A soft launch but not by design. Don't mistake this for strategy. It's Nintendo somehow not being ready to push this thing out of the door properly so having to make do in order to meet fiscal targets.

 

[Hermii]

No Dock, No Grip, $199 in October is my guess.

Splatoon 2, Mario, FE Warriors, Xenoblade, Pokemon Stars and maybe Smash

They will not sell it whiteout a dock. For one, Switch is the name of the device. You can't Switch without the dock.

For two, the dock is probably dirt cheap to produce. All it is, is a usb c to hdmi converter with a couple of USB ports.

 

[Unaha-Closp]

You'd have to be a delusional to think otherwise. I pass no judgement on people though - a Zelda is enough for huge amounts of people to spend 300 bucks and then wait 9 months for a Mario and then wait 9 months for some other Nintendo game.

 

[MattKeil]

I don't see it. The dock and grip combined likely cost less than $5 to manufacture.

Also it's named after what it does with the dock. It's like expecting them to release a DS with only one screen.

 

[Kaelan]

More like a rushed launch IMO. They most likely knew Scorpio would be coming and it was either rush w/ less launch titles and half-bake the OS so the console gets out or wait it out and potentially have sales be impacted by people buying the scorpio

 

[xochipiltontli]

That's demonstrably untrue, especially for Nintendo.

GBA SP, DS Lite, DSi, New 3DS, Wii MotionPlus, etc. Nintendo loves them some hardware revisions.

I wouldn't consider the first versions of those systems half baked. The original GBA was designed as a very cheap, decently powerful system that had a monopoly over the handheld market, the original DS was kind of trash but that's because it was something that the company didn't really have faith in but its concept and hardware was sufficient for the games that eventually landed on it, the DSi and New 3DS had increased power but it was hardly ever utilized because of concerns over fragmentation, the new 3DS had improved 3D but no one really cared about 3D in the first place, and Wii MotionPlus was an add for a system that was already extremely successful because its hardware was already capable of providing an experience that engaged people.

I think bytesized was referring moreso to things like the N64's cartridges, the Gamecube's minidiscs, the Wii U's horrible CPU and hardware that was unable to ever be reduced in cost because of how proprietary/oddly designed it was. These were problems that would have persisted because they were all integral to the hardware, attempts to fix these things like the 64DD failed, whereas the Wii U was lowered into the grave prematurely precisely because of how bad of a piece of tech it was. The Switch is hardware that is a lot more forward thinking. Cartridges aren't as expensive anymore and its hardware is scaleable to a variety of form factors and is much more receptive of price drops. Joy-cons are able to be used as a normal controller or as motion controllers that would work well with VR should Nintendo ever decide to pursue it. It's a very solidly designed piece of hardware where revisions would only improve things rather than try to fix fatal flaws in a way that fragments a userbase.

 

[LordKano]

Won't it be too late by then?

Dunno, I don't think a weak launch can kill a console. DS, 3DS, PS3 all had weak launches, and managed to pull it out in the end. If they are able to have a better proposition by the end of the year (which isn't that far away when you consider that March is only three months before E3), they may succeeds, in the end.

More like a rushed launch IMO. They most likely knew Scorpio would be coming and it was either rush w/ less launch titles and half-bake the OS so the console gets out or wait it out and potentially have sales be impacted by people buying the scorpio

I don't think Nintendo really cares about Scorpio lol.

 

[Linkstrikesback]

For two, the dock is probably dirt cheap to produce. All it is, is a usb c to hdmi converter with a couple of USB ports.

Pretty sure I saw some people shoot this idea down somewhere on gaf - I certainly thought that was the case too, but apparently there's more to it that makes it more difficult than that.

Admittedly I can't remember who said it or in which thread, or whether it was all a fever dream...

 

[kitsuneyo]

Sounds about right.

If Pokemon Stars is real and out for Christmas, all these launch complaints will be distant memories.

More like a rushed launch IMO. They most likely knew Scorpio would be coming and it was either rush w/ less launch titles and half-bake the OS so the console gets out or wait it out and potentially have sales be impacted by people buying the scorpio

I seriously doubt Scorpio is even on Nintendo's radar. It's a product for a totally different audience.

 

[qanters]

Have you seen the mainstream media do such a thing before?

Have they come back to devices after they have been relaunched and have they caused them to become a true success?

Ps3 which might be the closest to this was never able to become a true success in the US. It owes it's userbase to Europe where it was never a true failure, like it was in the USA.

They don't stop covering a system just because it has a bad launch. It's the job of games media to cover video games.

IGN doesn't just stop reviewing wii u games because the system isn't selling. It makes no difference to them.

More games, services and features = more topics for discussion.

 

[AniHawk]

I don't see it. The dock and grip combined likely cost less than $5 to manufacture.

woops yeah. no grip, plus game.

i think there is going to be a switch lite in the works that is an all-in-one, which will launch sometime in 2018 juuuust as the 3ds goes towards the end of its sunset phase.

 

[Oregano]

Nah they're just a bit shit at launching products. It's not an intentional strategy.

 

[hohoXD123]

More like a rushed launch IMO. They most likely knew Scorpio would be coming and it was either rush w/ less launch titles and half-bake the OS so the console gets out or wait it out and potentially have sales be impacted by people buying the scorpio

Doubt Scorpio factored much into their decision. They probably just wanted to get it out within this financial period.

 

[PSFan]

"Only 2-3 million units" does not make it a soft launch..that's around the amount that I'd expect most console launches to have (more than some).

I'm doubtful Nintendo will even sell through 3 million units in the first 6 months....unless they do a really high volume , high quality ad campaign.

If preorders are sold out everywhere, doesn't that mean they already sold 2 million for day one? Or do they not allocate the entire first shipment for preorders?

 

[haimon]

They don't stop covering a system just because it has a bad launch. It's the job of games media to cover video games.

IGN doesn't just stop reviewing wii u games because the system isn't selling. It makes no difference to them.

More games, services and features = more topics for discussion.

I meant mainstream media. The people who make the difference between the sales of a wiiu and Xbox one. (For example)

 

[UberTag]

A soft launch worked wonders for Sega with the Saturn. Can't see the fault in trying to replicate that success.

 

[MattKeil]

More like a rushed launch IMO. They most likely knew Scorpio would be coming and it was either rush w/ less launch titles and half-bake the OS so the console gets out or wait it out and potentially have sales be impacted by people buying the scorpio

Scorpio has absolutely nothing to do with it. They're not in competition with each other, frankly. The March launch is entirely due to Nintendo's inability to push the Switch and Zelda out of fiscal year 2017 (which ends March 31st) without inciting a shareholder riot. I guarantee that if they thought they could get away with launching the whole thing this Fall, they would.

If preorders are sold out everywhere, doesn't that mean they already sold 2 million for day one? Or do they not allocate the entire first shipment for preorders?

Not every place selling Switch on day one takes preorders.

 

[Mr. Pointy]

Yeah, I think Nintendo really weren't ready for March '17 in terms of OS, features and some software, but they would have been fucked by shareholders if they delayed it again. I'm guessing they'd have preferred August/September.

A soft launch worked wonders for Sega with the Saturn. Can't see the fault in trying to replicate that success.

Switch at least looks to have a decent lot of 1st party heavy hitters spread out through the year, so I don't think it'll Saturn or 3DS.

 

[Vaughngief]

If I was getting it at launch Zelda and Bomberman would be more than enough for me honestly. I'll be getting it around May since Mario Kart and Sonic Mania (hopefully) will be out by then.

 

[vsbizarro]

strategically it might benefit them to get all the problems out of the way in the main part of the year while still benefiting from launch. in the holiday, they'll probably bundle mario kart or 1 2 switch and/or drop the price. the 3ds provides a decent roadmap for this sort of thing, although the result in 2011 wasn't a plan but a reaction.

 

[RoombaDance]

Absolutely. They just need a revenue stream for this year before Holiday 2017. Also imagine how pissed 3DS and Wii U owners would be if the game drought extended another full year while they got ready for the full Switch launch.

The biggest tell is that they aren't charging for the online until the end of the year.

This doesn't mean there aren't still a lot of issues with the Switch launch.

Also those people holding their breath for a price-cut before the Holidays are delusional. 3DS was a special full-panic case. A bundle could happen though.

 

[clarknova156]

As soft as possible frankly. Should have waited at least until holiday 2017. Could have launched with Mario Odyessy , Mario Kart Deluxe , Splatoon 2 and of course Zelda. Would have been amazing and would have really silenced a lot of justifiable but critical views on the launch.

Also they should have launched it with fully functional online and without the dumb phone requirement.

This launch is one of the softest launches in gaming history and for Nintendo an incredibly bad decision. From the poor conference to the boneheaded requirements to the vastly overpriced accessories it just reaks of desperation in the weirdest way.

 

[Oregano]

strategically it might benefit them to get all the problems out of the way in the main part of the year while still benefiting from launch. in the holiday, they'll probably bundle mario kart or 1 2 switch and/or drop the price. the 3ds provides a decent roadmap for this sort of thing, although the result in 2011 wasn't a plan but a reaction.

Dropping to $250 and bundling in MK8 Deluxe would be an easy way to add a lot of value for the holidays.

 

[jdstorm]

Nintendo will do fine at launch. Zelda BotW has been universally popular with the general public.

Id be shocked if that game didnt sell out all of the 2-3 million units availiable at launch by itself

Then a month or two later Splatoon and Mario Kart will be availiable. Both games sold >3M units on the Wii U. They should be good for another million sales.

So now Nintendo has sold 5M Consoles by E3 and in front of the whole world are going to start revealing everything. Hopefully including a "Pokemon Stars is availiable now" announcement and Smash Bros is comming next month. Another 2M consoles sold and now Nintendo has an install base of 7M going into September.

At this point they drop Mario Oddesey. Sell it at full price for 2 months. Then start agressively bundling all these games over Black Friday. Where they hope to sell 5-10M consoles over the Holiday period. Starting year 2 with a 12-16M userbase.

 

[paulc316]

Is the 2-3 million units worldwide or just US?

 

[LordKano]

Absolutely. They just need a revenue stream for this year before Holiday 2017. Also imagine how pissed 3DS and Wii U owners would be if the game drought extended another full year while they got ready for the full Switch launch.

The biggest tell is that they aren't charging for the online until the end of the year.

This doesn't mean there aren't still a lot of issues with the Switch launch.

Also those people holding their breath for a price-cut before the Holidays are delusional. 3DS was a special full-panic case. A bundle could happen though.

I expect price to drop to 250$/279€ with a party game bundled, like 1-2 Switch or whatever they have in stock.

 

[SerTapTap]

I'd say they'll fully aware their offering is anemic and surprisingly unready considering we're basically already a year after wii u's abandonment, but I'm not sure I'd call it anything deliberate or tactical.

3DS's launch was definitely not purposeful, they just had to add a bunch of goodies because they realized it was dying as it was.

The more switch coverage I see the less convinced I am there's a coherent focus and plan here. frankly. The very first trailer was great. The more I learn the more that greatness chips away.

I guess it doesn't really matter much as a consumer. Unless you're the type to literally always own every single nintendo system, you're probably best off waiting a year minimum.

 

[mrback]

If there is no VC & eshop at launch id say its timotei supersoft

 

[NippleViking]

"Only 2-3 million units" does not make it a soft launch..that's around the amount that I'd expect most console launches to have (more than some).

I'm doubtful Nintendo will even sell through 3 million units in the first 6 months....unless they do a really high volume , high quality ad campaign.

Lol. Will happily wager that the Switch will exceed 3 million units before E3 (3 months).

 

[HeySeuss]

Dropping to $250 and bundling in MK8 Deluxe would be an easy way to add a lot of value for the holidays.

That's insane. Unless it's a WiiU/3DS launch situation that's not going to happen. No way will they drop $100 by doing that (50 off the system and 50$ game) for the first holiday season. I think a holiday bundle will happen, but it'll be at the $299 price unless the Switch is DOA from the start.

Nintendo said they have priced it to allow themselves to be profitable from day 1 and can do price drops in the future but I wouldn't expect them to do that until 2018.

 

[Dee Dah Dave]

This holiday is obviously the first real test of the Switch and it's demand. Selling through the first few million is always easy.

I expect there will be a game pack in around that time, even if not officially.

There's going to be 5 good consoles on the shelves this year though, it will be interesting to see what sales are like for everyone.

 

[Fdkn]

Prior to the event, switch was going to be a powerhouse from the get go, as Nintendo had been preparing its launch for 2 years.

Now that the true nature of the machine is revealed, it's all a masterplan with pricedrops and secret new skus in less than a year.

I guess doing anything wrong is out of the question.