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[Unknown Soldier]

Remember this guys? That obscure special election in Georgia which started so unceremoniously as the first post-Trump election of a Representative. The runoff election is June 20th, and both parties have gone all-in to try and set the narrative for the Congressional elections of the Trump era, including the upcoming 2018 midterm elections.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/06/georgia-special-election-spending-record-238054

It’s official: Georgia’s special election will be the most expensive House race in U.S. history.

Candidates and outside groups have aired or reserved more than $29.7 million worth of TV ads in the race to replace HHS Secretary Tom Price in Congress, which will break a five-year-old record for House spending — highlighting the outsized importance a sliver of the Atlanta suburbs has taken on in national politics.

“Everybody has shoved their chips into the middle of the table, and neither side can afford to lose,” said former GOP Rep. Tom Davis, who chaired the NRCC from 1998 to 2002 and said the record-breaking spending has elevated the race into a “real test of narrative” for both parties.

“Republicans can’t afford to lose this because it changes the narrative and it makes it easier for Democrats to recruit candidates and fundraise,” Davis said. “If Democrats lose, then it punctures their narrative of a coming anti-Trump wave.”

“It’s entirely possible that by the time the books are closed on this race, there will be over $40 million spent in the special and in the runoff,” said Chip Lake, a Republican strategist who works in Georgia. “I’m at a loss for words.”

That staggering total reflects the special election’s unprecedented national profile. It exploded onto the scene this spring as a potential referendum on President Donald Trump’s popularity, elevating Ossoff — a little-known first-time candidate — into an online fundraising dynamo who raised more than $8.3 million, largely from small donors scattered around the country, in just three months at the start of the year.

It’s unclear whether the contributors giving this money online will keep up the intensity that powered Ossoff so far. But there’s little sign that the Democratic base will stop getting provoked into action by Trump. (Democratic groups raised millions of dollars Thursday after House Republicans passed their Obamacare repeal bill.) And many Republicans are just as motivated to defend him.

“It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which 2018 will not be the election that shatters midterm spending record as well because we still have Donald Trump as president,” said Lake, the Georgia Republican consultant. “And he’s proven to be an activating force for both Democrats and Republicans.”

 

[Jeffrey]

im curious how the AHCA vote will be used on both sides. From what I can tell from polling, people in this district... not a fan.

 

[EatinOlives]

This would send an amazing anti-Trump message but i think it's too early for a large enough movement to push Ossoff to victory.

 

[BronsonLee]

I'll be absolutely stunned if Republicans fuck this up

 

[Boke1879]

The fact that this is even a thing is amazing in itself.

 

[Ithil]

Always worth noting that this is a deep red district that's not had a Democrat Rep since the 1970s. That it's this close at all is telling.

 

[Trouble]

Here's hoping the AHCA vote pushes Ossoff over the top

 

[SlipperyFishes]

I'll be absolutely stunned if Republicans fuck this up

The AHCA bill won't help things.

 

[kirblar]

Dem registration numbers are insane.

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

Here's hoping the AHCA vote pushes Ossoff over the top

Same here. People have to be pissed.

 

[Wilsongt]

If ossaff wins in June I expect immediate responses of voter fraud from It's the Terrible Pumpkin, Charlie Brown.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Ossof apparently has a 1 or 2 % lead, but I still have doubts he can pull through. This is nuts, though. I donated to his campaign several times and I probably will at least once more before the run off.

 

[Y2Kev]

It's really important the liberals turn out here. If Ossoff wins, it will send shockwaves that will reach moderate Republicans in the House. They'll know they can't get away with rubber stamping Freedom Caucus bullshit. They'll start blocking everything and that would be good for us in general. If he loses, there will be no explicit sign that they're in any danger. I think it's critical Ossoff wins though I am of course understanding of how difficult that will actually be in this district.

 

[kirblar]

https://www.thenation.com/article/g...from-registering-in-the-ossoff-handel-runoff/

 

[Ithil]

It's really important the liberals turn out here. If Ossoff wins, it will send shockwaves that will reach moderate Republicans in the House. They'll know they can't get away with rubber stamping Freedom Caucus bullshit. They'll start blocking everything and that would be good for us in general. If he loses, there will be no explicit sign that they're in any danger. I think it's critical Ossoff wins though I am of course understanding of how difficult that will actually be in this district.

Which in theory would also make them basically accomplish nothing until the midterms and hurt them in the end anyway, making a lose-lose scenario for House Republicans.

 

[JaggedSac]

We got 48% last time, we just need 3% more. Thinking about volunteering time to the campaign, every little bit helps.

 

[Jeffrey]

Maybe they shouldn't have done ahca vote before this lol.

How is that Healthcare plan polling for republicans?

 

[Lord Frieza]

Maybe they shouldn't have done ahca vote before this lol.

How is that Healthcare plan polling for republicans?

The first bill had 17% approval. No one, including GOP members who voted on it, is 100% what the new one is like, but it's at least worse

 

[kirblar]

Maybe they shouldn't have done ahca vote before this lol.

How is that Healthcare plan polling for republicans?

Under 20%. Like, literally, the point of this was to try and trick Trump and low-info GOP voters into thinking something had been accomplished.

 

[Ran rp]

Under 20%. Like, literally, the point of this was to try and trick Trump and low-info GOP voters into thinking something had been accomplished.

when you have to trick your own leader to appease him...

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

https://www.thenation.com/article/g...from-registering-in-the-ossoff-handel-runoff/

I forgot this happened.

 

[Protein]

Where do I donate? The only place I know of is Swingleft.org, but that looks like a national thing.

 

[LegendofJoe]

The approval percentage of the last bill, which didn't have the preexisting waiver clause, was 17 percent. I'd be willing to bet that the new version is sub 10 percent. Ossoff should talk about it in every ad or public appearance from now on.

 

[Jeffrey]

I thought 17% was nation wide? I assume Republicans are more favorable?

 

[kirblar]

I thought 17% was nation wide? I assume Republicans are more favorable?

17/33 is still underwater.

 

[Brandon F]

Under 20%. Like, literally, the point of this was to try and trick Trump and low-info GOP voters into thinking something had been accomplished.

Yep. Those that literally are so misinformed that they go about their day oblivious to any daily media, news, or political conversations may see the Rose Garden celebration through osmosis and think the GOP is doing well for them. They are literally banking on the idea that their base are so indoctrinated or so naive that optics are all that matter. Many still are, but this strategy is reaching its end.

 

[Team Alucard]

That's a lot of wasted money on a race that probably won't even end up within 5 points in the end.

 

[djplaeskool]

Here's hoping the AHCA vote pushes Ossoff over the top

It just might
GA is a state that didn't expand medicaid and the AHCA as drafted is intensely unpopular here.

 

[Izayoi]

The approval percentage of the last bill, which didn't have the preexisting waiver clause, was 17 percent. I'd be willing to bet that the new version is sub 10 percent. Ossoff should talk about it in every ad or public appearance from now on.

To be honest, every democrat should. The Republicans played themselves hard with this turd and I think that will become more and more evident the closer we get to 2018.

"The GOP doesn't give a fuck about you, your family, or anyone, really, except for themselves and their billionaire backers."

It sells itself.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Where do I donate? The only place I know of is Swingleft.org, but that looks like a national thing.

https://electjon.com/

 

[Lord Frieza]

That's a lot of wasted money on a race that probably won't even end up within 5 points in the end.

Ossoff was only 3% away from winning outright and has a 2 points lead that's maintained for the better part of a month. It's going to be a close race.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

https://www.thenation.com/article/g...from-registering-in-the-ossoff-handel-runoff/

Apparently voter registration is now going on until May 21st.

Anyone who is in Georgia's 6th Congressional District who isn't already registered should really register to vote. I'm just saying, it might be a good idea!

edit: I didn't know this, but apparently Georgia has absentee ballot. There's no excuse not to vote in this election!

 

[RPGCrazied]

Don't see how Ossoff can't pull this off, specially after the house passing that horrid healthcare bill. All he has to do is attack that and should win.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Don't see how Ossoff can't pull this off, specially after the house passing that horrid healthcare bill. All he has to do is attack that and should win.

Because this is a deeply red district that the GOP is pouring 6 million dollars into the race

 

[GoldenEye 007]

Because this is a deeply red district that the GOP is pouring 6 million dollars into the race

So do you just give up and let them have it? Have to start fighting somewhere.

 

[Link]

While this race in particular is promising, these races getting more and more money pumped into them is only bad news for Democrats.

 

[Lord Frieza]

So do you just give up and let them have it? Have to start fighting somewhere.

You may want to read the post I was replying to closer.

While this race in particular is promising, these races getting more and more expensive is only bad news for Democrats.

Well, in this case, it's much worse for the GOP, because the amount of money they are putting in is way more than the Democrat side.

 

[BronsonLee]

So do you just give up and let them have it? Have to start fighting somewhere.

He's just noting that expectations shouldn't be that they're going to win in a landslide

While this race in particular is promising, these races getting more and more money pumped into them is only bad news for Democrats.

It means fightin time

 

[GoldenEye 007]

You may want to read the post I was replying to closer.



Well, in this case, it's much worse for the GOP, because the amount of money they are putting in is way more than the Democrat side.

He's just noting that expectations shouldn't be that they're going to win in a landslide



It means fightin time

Fair enough. Sorry, my mistake.

Certainly not expecting a landslide. But yeah, I think it's fair to say it is very competitive.

 

[Game Guru]

It's really important the liberals turn out here. If Ossoff wins, it will send shockwaves that will reach moderate Republicans in the House. They'll know they can't get away with rubber stamping Freedom Caucus bullshit. They'll start blocking everything and that would be good for us in general. If he loses, there will be no explicit sign that they're in any danger. I think it's critical Ossoff wins though I am of course understanding of how difficult that will actually be in this district.

Ossoff will most likely lose by one or two percentage points, even though I hope he wins. Quite frankly, my worry about 2018 is that Democrats just barely lose their elections. My greatest fear the Democrats will continue to find a way to lose even as the Republicans become blatantly villainous.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Well, in this case, it's much worse for the GOP, because the amount of money they are putting in is way more than the Democrat side.

Things like the AHCA will also hurt the GOP because traditionally Republican power bases like doctors and retired people will now be looking at the Democrats for maybe the first time in their lives.

 

[Brannon]

I'm firmly not part of that district, but I'll send money in vain hopes that Ossoff pulls it off.

We need something. Something. A crumb, a mote of hope, an ember...

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

Which in theory would also make them basically accomplish nothing until the midterms and hurt them in the end anyway, making a lose-lose scenario for House Republicans.

"Play stupid games, win stupid prizes." I say.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Ossoff will most likely lose by one or two percentage points, even though I hope he wins. Quite frankly, my worry about 2018 is that Democrats just barely lose their elections. My greatest fear the Democrats will continue to find a way to lose even as the Republicans become blatantly villainous.

This situation is different, and it's not fair to look at it as a base for 2018 in general. This is a district that hasn't had a democrat in this seat for 30 years, so it's an exceptional situation. So was Kansas, and the current Montana special election.

 

[hodayathink]

While this race in particular is promising, these races getting more and more money pumped into them is only bad news for Democrats.

Except that money isn't infinite, and this is a race that normally Republican's wouldn't need to pump any money into. If Republicans are having to spend so much money to win seats like this, the 50-100 seats that are more Dem leaning than this one are all going to need money as well, and at some point the well dries up.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Vote your Ossoff.

Just contributed on a whim. Watching Captain America Winter Soldier and I'm feeling patriotic.

 

[Game Guru]

This situation is different, and it's not fair to look at it as a base for 2018 in general. This is a district that hasn't had a democrat in this seat for 30 years, so it's an exceptional situation. So was Kansas, and the current Montana special election.

I understand that, but it does not calm the fears that I have.

 

[Lord Frieza]

I understand that, but it does not calm the fears that I have.

I'm not sure you really understand that, otherwise you would understand that your fears don't correlate together that well.

 

[hodayathink]

I understand that, but it does not calm the fears that I have.

There's always going to be close districts, and the Dems are going to lose some of them. But if we keep seeing a 10-15 percentage point swing like we did in the Kansas election, then Republicans are going to have a really hard time keeping the House in 2018.

 

[Balphon]

Always worth noting that this is a deep red district that's not had a Democrat Rep since the 1970s. That it's this close at all is telling.

Even that undersells it a bit. This is Newt Gingrich's former district. Romney carried it by 23 points in 2012. The fact that it's in play at all is fairly stunning.