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[Devolution]

People who make these lists never think about the utility in things beyond how they use them. I can't use a fucking touch screen worth a shit for stuff like photoshop and vector work. And drawing tablets aren't going to magically disappear either. Landlines are great emergency phones and not everywhere has great reception (including where I live) for cell service.

 

[jagowar]

Don't agree with the mouse

It already kind of is being replaced.... not too many laptop users actually drag out the mouse anymore and once touchscreens are on everything I can easily see that happening.

I also think the "desktop" of the future will look much different than today. I think desktops more like surface than a box+monitor (again touchscreen too).

 

[Dhx]

I'm 20 and remember having to load into DOS to start up Grand Prix 2 as a kid.

Yes, you would do that until Windows 98. The satement referred to a pre DOS era.

 

[Zoe]

I also think the "desktop" of the future will look much different than today. I think desktops more like surface than a box+monitor (again touchscreen too).

So you'd have to look down to see your screen?

 

[Bgamer90]

"15 Current Technologies My Newborn Son Won’t Use"...

Not necessarily saying that all of them will be completely dead.

 

[BGBW]

Also another fundamental flaw is that this article assumes that the moment new technology comes about everyone jumps on board. His mind would be blown if you told him there are people out there with B&W televisions.

 

[jagowar]

So you'd have to look down to see your screen?

Somewhat.... think angled like a drafting table.

Don't remember which video (think it was the cp release) somebody high up on windows said they expect windows 8 (touch) to usher in new types of office furniture for the new ways to use windows (just like there was when the desktop was first created).

 

[Bgamer90]

Also another fundamental flaw is that this article assumes that the moment new technology comes about everyone jumps on board. His mind would be blown if you told him there are people out there with B&W televisions.

haha... starting to realize that many in this thread don't get the point of the article.

 

[Persona7]

Wired internet will go away?

I laughed.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

"15 Current Technologies My Newborn Son Won’t Use"...

Not necessarily saying that all of them will be completely dead.

But what if his 14 year old son in the year 2026 wants to do IT work or graphic design or start up a professional photography studio!?!

 

[Devolution]

haha... starting to realize that many in this thread don't get the point of the article.

He might use them depending on what he happens to be doing. That's the point. Unless he's only going to raise his son with expensive new technology. "You'll only use tablets in this house son." Also what's my daughter doing? Just throwing around barbies?

 

[Zoe]

Somewhat.... think like a angled drafting table.

I really can't imagine that in a setting that requires intensive typing.

 

[BGBW]

haha... starting to realize that many in this thread don't get the point of the article.

So he will not be allowed to leave the house because his dad has created a world which dictates what technology he must use.

 

[marrec]

He might use them depending on what he happens to be doing. That's the point. Unless he's only going to raise his son with expensive new technology. "You'll only use tablets in this house son." Also what's my daughter doing? Just throwing around barbies?

Barbies will have a touch interface in 5 years, but she'll still just be Faxing Ken's shit around for him.

 

[Escape Goat]

Rather, I'm thinking about devices and concepts most of us use today that will fall out of mainstream use so soon that he either won't remember them, or will only have very hazy memories of having lived with them.

People either still dont get the gist of the article and are now talking about parenting rules in the house? What is going on?

 

[peakish]

I don't know if it'll be before my children can remember it, but I think most of that list will come to pass within 30 years. That is for most users, users who want specialised cameras will always exist (I'll be among them) and watching movies on the big screen for dates and just as a social activity will remain.

I'm very uncertain about the mouse. I don't think straight touch screens are a replacement, but touch pads? I could definitely see those take over once they advance a few steps tech wise. Combine them with built in displays plus tactile feedback and they'll be as user friendly as your average touch screen without sacrificing mouse efficiency. But who knows. I just know that when I think of sci-fi I don't think of these hyper advanced computers still running an actual mouse

As for windowed desktop environments, I don't see them going away, but future environments will be more focused on keeping separate tasks on separate workspaces. Apps will become more optimised for full screen usage and better ways of quickly switching between different spaces will appear. Now, this is coming from a huge fan of Gnome 3 which I think does this very well right now without sacrificing efficiency, so I'm "biased" in the sense that I like this style of computing already. Having said that I do have some specialised usage cases for multiple windows on a shared space (quick tasks in the file manager or terminal, or certain workloads) so I'm glad that windows do exist in it and don't see them disappear completely. But I think environments will keep moving towards focusing on one application at a time and I think most users will like that as long as they can break the boundaries when needed to.


Edit: It's not as if any of these predictions are new or especially out there anyway. Removing the absolute "won't use" makes them quite safe bets in my mind ...

 

[Deleted member 1235]

I agree with most of that and think the hardest thing to kill will still be the fax.

fucking faxes :/ have to support a fax server at work. It's a cunt.

 

[Dhx]

I also think the "desktop" of the future will look much different than today. I think desktops more like surface than a box+monitor (again touchscreen too).

Fingers are simply too imprecise. We'll need tactile, spiked fingertip accessories for pixel perfect manipulation and 100% accurate voice recognition tech to replace the keyboard. And if you go hoarse, you'll have to pull out the wireless eBrain reader that ignores the thoughts we don't ever desire to share. At this point, I'll just turn everything over to my Awesom-O 3000.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

People either still dont get the gist of the article and are now talking about parenting rules in the house? What is going on?

Exactly. If the only reason people can think of for a lot of these technologies existing is in the professional or enthusiast field then their presence on the mainstream conscience will do nothing but shrink.

 

[Bgamer90]

But what if his 14 year old son in the year 2026 wants to do IT work or graphic design or start up a professional photography studio!?!

He might use them depending on what he happens to be doing. That's the point. Unless he's only going to raise his son with expensive new technology. "You'll only use tablets in this house son." Also what's my daughter doing? Just throwing around barbies?

So he will not be allowed to leave the house because his dad has created a world which dictates what technology he must use.

IMO, you guys (and others) are going too deep into this. Probably due to most (me included) being big tech heads.

But anyways, it's just an article based on "average everyday person" tech trends. Big tech heads probably will continue using a good portion of what was stated.

FYI, people still use typewriters to this day believe it or not. Does that mean that a father back in 1990 shouldn't have said, "My son will never use that"?

 

[Dice]

Of course a guy from gizmodo wouldn't realize the rest of the world isn't tech-rich.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

IMO, you guys (and others) are going too deep into this. Probably due to most (me included) being big tech heads.

But anyways, it's just an article based on "average everyday person" tech trends. Big tech heads probably will continue using a good portion of what was stated.

FYI, people still use typewriters to this day believe it or not. Does that mean that a father back in 1990 shouldn't have said, "My son will never use that"?

I was being sarcastic, I agree with you. I think the gist of the article is "here is a bunch of stuff that we are all accustomed to in our every day life and will probably become more and more specialized or obsolete over the next 15-20 years". It's really not that far fetched.

 

[Bgamer90]

I was being sarcastic, I agree with you. I think the gist of the article is "here is a bunch of stuff that we are all accustomed to in our every day life and will probably become more and more specialized or obsolete over the next 15-20 years". It's really not that far fetched.

Heh sorry for not getting your sarcasm. I tied your post in with others in this thread since it was similar.

 

[lunarworks]

People either still dont get the gist of the article and are now talking about parenting rules in the house? What is going on?

I get the gist of the article. I just think he's a bit over-exuberant about how widely and absolutely certain technologies will be embraced. It's a type of mental disease tech pundits catch.

I mean, how many times did we hear the term "Paperless Office" in the early '90s? If all those tech pundits had been correct, everything would have been entirely digital by 1998. But, we're still tripping over mountains of paper.

 

[Suairyu]

I was being sarcastic, I agree with you. I think the gist of the article is "here is a bunch of stuff that we are all accustomed to in our every day life and will probably become more and more specialized or obsolete over the next 15-20 years". It's really not that far fetched.

Except even under this classification the list is an absolute failure, for the reasons pointed out in this thread. The mouse, harddrives, landline phones, movie theatres and optical discs are all here to stay for at least another ten years for sure. I would also expect the fax machine, remote controls and and windows-based UIs to remain for the mass market, too.

It's a bum list.

 

[planar1280]

Current articles I don't want my newborn son to see.

Or rather: websites your newborne will never see: Gizmodo

 

[Bgamer90]

Except even under this classification the list is an absolute failure, for the reasons pointed out in this thread.

So it's a failure just because there will still be some that use them and/or may have to do so for a specific profession?

Heck, in that case I guess typewriters, CRT monitors, and portable walkman CD players are still in and are popular mainstream modern day tech.

Articles from the '90s and early '00s saying that people won't use them in the future were absolute failures.

 

[Devolution]

So it's a failure just because there will still be some that use them and/or may have to do so for a specific profession?

Heck, in that case I guess typewriters, CRT monitors, and portable walkman CD players are still in and are popular mainstream modern day tech.

Articles from the '90s and early '00s saying that people won't use them in the future were absolute failures.

Unless there is rapid infrastructure change and schools actually get some money to update their shit, his/our newborn will in fact use much of the stuff he's talking about.

 

[-COOLIO-]

Windowed Operating Systems

When my son is ready for his own computer, the windows will be gone from Windows. Microsoft 's PC operating system will still exist, as will Mac OS X. But, in the next few years, we'll say good bye to the window metaphor where each application you run is displayed in a draggable box that has a title bar and widgets.

Microsoft has already signaled its intent to kill the window metaphor by making the tile-based Metro UI the default screen for Windows 8. How long before Mac OS and even Ubuntu also default to touch-friendly UIs that don't have tiny widgets?

hells to tha no. msn going in corner, coding on the top right, and youtube on the left isnt something im giving up

 

[Suairyu]

So it's a failure just because there will still be some that use them and/or may have to do so for a specific profession?

If you think any of those are specific professions only, you must not have much real profession experience.

 

[lunarworks]

Articles from the '90s and early '00s saying that people won't use them in the future were absolute failures.

Articles from the '90s said we'd all be using computers like this by now:

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Except even under this classification the list is an absolute failure, for the reasons pointed out in this thread. The mouse, harddrives, landline phones, movie theatres and optical discs are all here to stay for at least another ten years for sure. I would also expect the fax machine, remote controls and and windows-based UIs to remain for the mass market, too.

It's a bum list.

Your assertions aren't based in anymore fact than his are. It's just a bunch of educated guesses at the end of the day. The way technology goes nobody can really predict what will be the next big boom, I just don't think these predictions are that much of a stretch.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Articles from the '90s said we'd all be using computers like this by now:

Makes me wonder if in 20 years we'll look back at that google glasses video and think how cheesy and dated it looks, and how it's nothing like what we're really using.

 

[Bgamer90]

Your assertions aren't based in anymore fact than his are. It's just a bunch of educated guesses at the end of the day. The way technology goes nobody can really predict what will be the next big boom, I just don't think these predictions are that much of a stretch.

Exactly.

People in the past said "That would never happen..." in terms of possible future tech trends only for them to happen. Happens with each generation.

 

[Suairyu]

Your assertions aren't based in anymore fact than his are. It's just a bunch of educated guesses at the end of the day. The way technology goes nobody can really predict what will be the next big boom, I just don't think these predictions are that much of a stretch.

Fact 1: using a touch screen all day would be much more tiring (and expensive) than using a mouse.
Reasonable guess 1: because of fact 1, businesses are unlikely to shift from mice to touchscreens anytime soon

Fact(s) 2: the world-wide internet infrastructure sucks ass. Slow download speeds, bandwidth usage caps etc. HD-streaming is nowhere near ready for prime time world-wide. Meanwhile, our HD movies are supplied on 50gig discs and in a couple of decades we'll have a new >HD video format that will require even greater storage space.
Reasons guess 2: Because of fact 2, in ten years optical discs will still be needed.

The article's guesses are unreasonable because they take current gadget tech trends and apply them to day-to-day life without thinking for a single moment about the utility of those guesses. Businesses don't adopt a new technology unless said technology is better in every conceivable way. See: fax machines still being around when email exists.

These articles are just "this is what the American middle class consumer is doing right now, so in ten years time businesses and people around the world will obviously follow suit and your current, proven tech will be as dead as the dodo". It's silly.

 

[Bgamer90]

Unless there is rapid infrastructure change and schools actually get some money to update their shit, his/our newborn will in fact use much of the stuff he's talking about.

The are already 5-7 year olds that have never used desktops and only used laptops.

There are also some in the same age range that have never used dedicated cameras, or landline phones.

If you think any of those are specific professions only, you must not have much real profession experience.

I was talking "specific professions only" based on how things may be 10-20 years from now.

Seems like some of you guys are focused too much on what's "in" now and acting as if there can't possibly be something different years down the line that will replace it in terms of popular use.

 

[peakish]

Here's a freebie prediction of the same kind: His son will never own a movie or music album, on disc or digitally. He'll instead have a range of subscriptions letting him stream what he wants on demand.

Yeah these predictions are quite boring. Better: What will he think of personal privacy having grown up in a world where we share more and more of our lives? Predict that shit.

 

[Suairyu]

Seems like some of you guys are focused too much on what's "in" now and acting as if there can't possibly be something different years down the line that will replace it in terms of popular use.

Er, no. We're thinking about utility. So, touchscreens will not replace mice because they aren't as useful as mice outside of tablets and smartphones etc.

Move theaters won't disappear because people like going to the movies. As another poster pointed out, concerts didn't die out because of home recording, and films didn't die because of TV.

Here's a freebie prediction of the same kind: His son will never own a movie or music album, on disc or digitally. He'll instead have a range of subscriptions letting him stream what he wants on demand.

This is a much more likely prediction than anything on the Gizmondo list.

 

[Bgamer90]

Fact 1: using a touch screen all day would be much more tiring (and expensive) than using a mouse.

There have been days in which I've just used my phone to surf the web and not my computer.

The positives and negatives in terms of the overall feel/use of touchscreens vs. mouses balances out. One is faster/easier to use than the other in certain situations.

The article's guesses are unreasonable because they take current gadget tech trends and apply them to day-to-day life without thinking for a single moment about the utility of those guesses. Businesses don't adopt a new technology unless said technology is better in every conceivable way. See: fax machines still being around when email exists.

Can you honestly say that tech that has replaced previous tech did so because it was "better in every way"?

These articles are just "this is what the American middle class consumer is doing right now, so in ten years time businesses and people around the world will obviously follow suit and your current, proven tech will be as dead as the dodo". It's silly.

The article isn't saying the the proven tech will be completely dead. It's saying that popular proven tech will more than likely not get as much use in the future as it does currently.

 

[peakish]

This is a much more likely prediction than anything on the Gizmondo list.

Nah, it's about the same as most of them. Primetime television? He'll use Watch On Demand. Phone numbers? Maybe, but they'll be gone sooner rather than later. 3D glasses? Luls.

Edit: Only like a third of the list is somewhat controversial to me (and even then mostly due to his choice of time limit, ten years isn't enough for them). It's just very boring.

 

[Suairyu]

There have been days in which I've just used my phone to surf the web and not my computer.

Cool. Now take that interface that was ideal for leisurely web surfing and apply it to a desktop computer that requires you to quickly multitask. Suddenly it's shit.

As I said, for tablets and smartphones touchscreens are great. For average business use? Not at all. And that's why the articles assertion that the mouse will be mostly replaced is bunk.

 

[Bgamer90]

Movie theaters won't disappear because people like going to the movies.

There's an increasing amount who find it to be too expensive and would rather just stay home and wait to watch it on their big screen TV and surround sound setup.

I doubt that movie theaters will disappear completely but I wouldn't be surprised to see traditional movie theaters go down in rate years from now.

 

[Deified Data]

I'm 29 and I've sent maybe 4 faxes in my entire life.

I send faxes for people all day as part of my job - there's still a lot of demand for it.

 

[bengraven]

Bookmarking this for the next decade, when my kid will be 14.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Bookmarking this for the next decade, when my kid will be 14.

NeoGaf is the 16th technology that your son will never use.

 

[Bgamer90]

Cool. Now take that interface that was ideal for leisurely web surfing and apply it to a desktop computer that requires you to quickly multitask. Suddenly it's shit.

But the article also said that people won't be using desktops.

And honestly, I can see that happening. Most of the things I do on the computer outside of editing video could be done on a tablet via mobile versions of popular sites and/or applications.

As I said, for tablets and smartphones touchscreens are great. For average business use? Not at all. And that's why the articles assertion that the mouse will be mostly replaced is bunk.

What's to say that there won't be any improvements in the future?

 

[lunarworks]

There have been days in which I've just used my phone to surf the web and not my computer.

The positives and negatives in terms of the overall feel/use of touchscreens vs. mouses balances out. One is faster/easier to use than the other in certain situations.

Works great for a small device you hold in your hands. Not so much for a big display mounted in front of you.

 

[Suairyu]

But the article also said that people won't be using desktops.

Yeah, and I can just imagine the back pain people would develop from having to adopt the posture of looking down at a surface/screen five days a week would do. Laptops haven't replacemed the desktop/monitor combo for health reasons as much as technological.

Again, utility.

 

[Pirabear]

I'm shocked fax isn't dead yet. What benefit does it have over scanner+email?

 

[Suairyu]

I'm shocked fax isn't dead yet. What benefit does it have over scanner+email?

.

There are three reasons why people still use fax machines:
1 - Everyone else still uses them.
2 - For huge batches of documents, it's easier than a scanner.
3 - Everyone else still uses them.

Someone can address point #2 by making a scanner that has the same feeding and automatic mailing functionality of a fax machine. However, points #1 and #3 are why nobody even tries to.

Also, landline phone connections are more reliable than internet.