Devolution
Member
You just put the paper in and dial a number? And if you need to sign something, you just do that and send it back. Scan, email and print, repeat process versus just putting the paper back in the machine and redialing. Hmmm.
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Gizmodo: 15 current technologies your newborn son won't use
- Thread starter Escape Goat
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You just put the paper in and dial a number? And if you need to sign something, you just do that and send it back. Scan, email and print, repeat process versus just putting the paper back in the machine and redialing. Hmmm.
WickedCobra03
Member
I don't even think that will happen. Anything more than scrolling up or down a webpage, or a quick text message to someone is a daunting task. I feel like mobiles are good if you are in a pinch, but I would never switch just because its smaller.
Like the iPad. I have no room for that in my life given the fact that I have a small enough macbook that still acts like a full desktop computer to an acceptable degree.
In terms of back pain, it's due to the keyboard being connected to the screen of the laptop (obviously).
A tablet can be mounted. Maybe work areas in the future will have "easy-to-mount" stands for tablets so that they can be used as monitors with the user interacting with it via a wireless keyboard and their very own smartphone using the smartphone like a mouse (e.g.: moving their finger up and down to scroll or moving their finger around the smartphone's screen and double tapping it to point & click on something). Who knows...
ryutaro's mama
Member
Yep.
How many people laughed at these ads when they aired in 1993? Almost 20 years ago?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MnQ8EkwXJ0
Most of all of that has been realized today and is integrated into everyday life.
Going to get all nostalgic when I see my son one day get out of his floating super conductor car, step into a UPEx / HPinkos, and fax a few legal documents.
That's a bit of a strawman don't you think? This article is about tech that will disappear and be replaced, not likely evolutions based on current tech. The article also makes very specific arguments that are rightfuly being poked full of holes.
That's a bit of a strawman don't you think? This article is about tech that will disappear and be replaced, not likely evolutions based on current tech. The article also makes very specific arguments that are rightfuly being poked full of holes.
Rich Uncle Skeleton
Member
Touchscreen isn't the only alternative though. I can't remember the last time I used a mouse, and I'm on my computer hours a day. The trackpad works well enough for me. And the way I use my laptop (actually in my lap), isn't really conducive to using a mouse. If desktops continue to be supplanted by laptops for home use, the mouse will become less relevant along with them.
I actually kind of agree with you on this, but I wonder if people will sacrifice resolution for convenience in this case.
The astonishing thing about many predictions is that the actual implementation, whenever it does arrive, often is so much sleeker than whatever was imagined - fine tuned by real world testing rather than theory. The future can't come faster for our modern day predictions, whichever of them actually turn out to pass.
lunarworks
Member
Yup, I remember those ads quite well. We did get most of that. But, not all in the form imagined (I remember the hype for "wrist phones"), and certainly not from AT&T. (LOL.)
But, nowhere in any of those commercials was any implication that we'd stop using things.
Gaming and productivity apps are two examples of mass application that can't be largely replaced with trackpads and touchscreens. Also, are we really going to limit our screen sizes to accomodate touchscreens? Any large screen at arms reach is going have a severe effect on eyestrain.
This is a legitimate fear I share and the reason I haven't commented on optical discs. Most people don't give a shit about aspect ratio and stretching, much less going from HD to 4k, and audio will pay as grave a price with compression. This is the one area where I hope the TV manufacturers and content distributers need to sell you replacements of the same items every 5-10 years has a positive side influence.
ryutaro's mama
Member
I was responding directly to the poster that used the "it could never happen" line. The technology is ever evolving in our world and that 1993 is scarily accurate. Things change, technology progresses. The writer of the article could be wrong or right. Or a combination of both.
At it's core the article is meant to generate conversation and judging on this thread, it succeeded.
Agreed @ bolded.
I know.
See above.
This has nothing to do with you, but I wish this line of thought would just die. Terrible articles tend to generate conversation because of how poorly thought out and short-sighted the arguments are. It's not a great metric.
One might as well say, "Spiderman 3 was meant to generate conversation and judging by the mass explosion of subsequent discussion, it succeeded.
See You Next Wednesday
Banned
I'm going to have to disagree. 90% of TV remotes are horribly thought-out pieces of over-designed shit. Too many of the buttons are the same shape, they often have no real logical placement or clustering, and there's twice as many buttons as there should be.
Honestly, a minimal control with an area for multi-touch gestures could come in real handy in this area.
Not even close.
They have so many buttons so you don't have to go wad through menus & sub-menus. A simplified single touch icrap equivalent would be terribly inconvenient.
There larger size is for functionality too. You see it, you press it. No need to waste time search for something.
Marty Chinn
Member
They won't sacrifice resolution but they sure as well sacrifice bitrates. Nobody ever talks about bitrates, so people assume as long as they get the resolution, they're good to go.
lunarworks
Member
If I'm looking at the TV, I don't want to look for a button on my remote. An ideal remote, as I've said, has the most commonly used functions arranged, spaced, and shaped logically so you can quickly get them with your thumb.
Any function that gets used less frequently than daily, or even weekly, can be put into a quick-access on-screen menu. We have the tech now for less obtrusive on-screen menus that react quickly and look nice.
People seriously believe that traditional remotes will be common in a decade or two? There's a huge push to content on demand, and this will most likely become the main way of consuming in the future. A touchscreen is a far more suitable device for this.
Add haptics and improved e-ink style screens and you could keep a remote control interface on where you could still feel the buttons but change the layout at will. This will really change a lot.
Also, I'd expect that he is right when he says that the mouse will become a secondary input in the future. Touchscreens have only found widespread use recently and interfaces are still largely aimed at the mouse. That will change.
Add haptics and improved e-ink style screens and you could keep a remote control interface on where you could still feel the buttons but change the layout at will. This will really change a lot.
Also, I'd expect that he is right when he says that the mouse will become a secondary input in the future. Touchscreens have only found widespread use recently and interfaces are still largely aimed at the mouse. That will change.
This message was typed on a virtual keyboard on a tablet. Even though I've got this for only a few months, I can already type decently on it. With pressure sensritive screens, better dictionaries and haptic feedback this can easily replace a traditional keyboard for basic use.
ItAintEasyBeinCheesy
it's 4th of July in my asshole
Maybe, not the mouse though. I cant lounge back in my computer chair if I constantly have to lean forward to touch my screen to do stuff.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Well, that relies on the "fact" that everyone finds the article to be poorly thought out and the arguments short sighted. After skimming the the thread there are those that agree with it to varying degrees and disagree with it as well.
The same could be said for Spider-man 3. It's not a fact it was bad; it's a subjective opinion. To be fair too, Spider-man 3's goal was to make money, plain and simple.
One could say that is also the goal for articles (to generate site traffic and ad exposure) but I don't think you can judge them the same.
And for the record, I HATED Spider-man 3 but know peeps that loved it.
Well said. I can't fucking stand how inaccurate touch tech is.
I could see perhaps half that list somewhat coming true. The rest of it is flat out bonkers.
And you think touch will never get more accurate? With a pen or thumb/finger pointer attachment it will be just as precise.
Hungry Ghost
Member
I highly doubt dedicated cameras and camcorders will go away, and I'm pretty sure anyone who knows anything about photography will agree with me.
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
But why bother with that when a regular keyboard is so much better? And why would industry bother with more expensive and complicated stuff to do the same job? And if industry doesn't change why would your kids not experience this stuff unless they go to a really shitty but for some reason technologically advanced school.
Laying on the couch watching tv with a tablet is way easier to use.
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
But technology also has business uses so unless schools are gonna start preparing kids for sitting on the couch, they are still going to need to learn to use regular desktops which will still be ubiquitous in industry in 15 years time.
Again, it reads what his newborn 'won't use' in the future, not 'technologies that won't exist'. And while that's true, I can still see mice going a wacom route in terms of niche. Oh and cell service is only getting better.
The list in OP sounds like a wish-list rather than anything that will happen. Tape backup is still a used method for backing up data, and it's not because the people in charge are unwilling to move forward.
There's already too many users on the little of frequencies we have for mobile use, no fucking way everyone will be using satellite technology instead of wired networks. Seen how ridiculously much longer the transit time for a packet is via satellite in mere terms of speed of light and distance needing to be traveled, it's not a viable option for time-critical networking like, well gaming. And don't come here with some "the future is a semi-concurrent loosely interconnected experience" shit. Dark Souls is awesome, but I can't play an FPS like that.
Why the flying fuck would SLRs go out of fashion? Everyone and their fricking dog has an SLR now. About 5 years ago there was a huge boom, and that won't go away. Sure, most of the sheeple out there will use smartphones, like they already do, but there is just no way SLRs will ever stop being relevant.
Slow-booting computers? Fuck yeah, they'll be gone. So what. 5 years ago it took my computer 3 minutes to start, no it takes 30 seconds. But computers will continue to bloat and boot slower and slower like always.
Movie theaters will be gone? It's like saying streets will be gone one day since we have airplanes. The two don't really connect.
The mouse? Really? You think I'm gonna tap my screen for everything? No.
And you know what? Gestures and voice recognition is fucking awesome. I got an iPhone 4S, and I tell Siri to note down too many of my thoughts for no reason. It's really awesome, but you know what? It's gimmicky. Tactile feedback will NEVER go out of style, and having to say "next" fifty times before finding a good show is never cool. I'm certain we're moving towards a future where we can assume people have a sort of "Personal Assistant Computing Machine And Networker" that is integrated towards most stuff - I mean, just today I realised the possibilities my iPhone could have if it wasn't Apple. Apple is so "user friendly" that it doesn't allow anything that can harm the user in any way, like allowing voice to add contacts, or changing anything on the phone. It's a shame, because with the voice recognition Siri has on and Android phone, I'm sure I could program my oven to turn on with a voice-command. And that's awesome.
I'm sure we'll move towards a place where our PACMAN (Personal Assistant etc) is no longer a brick we have in our pockets. I envision some sort of HUD (the new google stuff is really interesting and shows us where we're heading) combined with a tactile surface, like a bendable plastic screen that we will wear, maybe like bracelet. We'll remove it from our arms and get up icons to touch and a surface to gesture on.
But you know what, I will never be writing a long-ass message like this one, or dictating it via a microphone ever. Most of the internet will still be text. We won't start sending only voice memos to each other, and we won't be able to program with voice commands. Keyboards and mice - desktops and remote controls, and even fax machines will be around. Most people WANTED the fax machine to die in the 80s, but it's still here. It's not just that it'll be something young people won't use - these things just won't go out of fashion, much like pen and paper.
Desktop phones will be a bigger part of the office future. I worked with the University of Oslo in integrating a new VOIP system, and that thing is awesome. I made a web-page where you can go in and edit your contacts, see your call logs, push a button to call back. You can set up a conference, and there are phones that have camera and awesome screens so you can video conference. Desktop phones won't die. They'll be Voice over IP. Sure, small enterprises and offices can rely on smartphones and skype, but we're failing to realize how big enterprises work. How many calls go here and there, and the utility of a tactile phone. Fuck if I know. Maybe they'll all just be features of our HUD and PACMAN, but that will be fully integrated in 20 years minimum. You have no idea how sluggish the big corporations work on this. They're 10 years behind current technology.
Maybe phone numbers will disappear. I see it going one of two ways. We all either wake up and realize we're scared about the 'always connected' mentality we're moving towards and we won't upload our entire profiles onto the interbutt so that anyone can reach us. We don't want to be reachable by name, but by number, because there's a separation of layers that we still need. Or we'll all just be lazy and stop giving a fuck.
All in all, it's an optimistic list coming from someone that hasn't really considered the implications of the statements if they were to come true. They're not outlandish, but some things will never change.
There's already too many users on the little of frequencies we have for mobile use, no fucking way everyone will be using satellite technology instead of wired networks. Seen how ridiculously much longer the transit time for a packet is via satellite in mere terms of speed of light and distance needing to be traveled, it's not a viable option for time-critical networking like, well gaming. And don't come here with some "the future is a semi-concurrent loosely interconnected experience" shit. Dark Souls is awesome, but I can't play an FPS like that.
Why the flying fuck would SLRs go out of fashion? Everyone and their fricking dog has an SLR now. About 5 years ago there was a huge boom, and that won't go away. Sure, most of the sheeple out there will use smartphones, like they already do, but there is just no way SLRs will ever stop being relevant.
Slow-booting computers? Fuck yeah, they'll be gone. So what. 5 years ago it took my computer 3 minutes to start, no it takes 30 seconds. But computers will continue to bloat and boot slower and slower like always.
Movie theaters will be gone? It's like saying streets will be gone one day since we have airplanes. The two don't really connect.
The mouse? Really? You think I'm gonna tap my screen for everything? No.
And you know what? Gestures and voice recognition is fucking awesome. I got an iPhone 4S, and I tell Siri to note down too many of my thoughts for no reason. It's really awesome, but you know what? It's gimmicky. Tactile feedback will NEVER go out of style, and having to say "next" fifty times before finding a good show is never cool. I'm certain we're moving towards a future where we can assume people have a sort of "Personal Assistant Computing Machine And Networker" that is integrated towards most stuff - I mean, just today I realised the possibilities my iPhone could have if it wasn't Apple. Apple is so "user friendly" that it doesn't allow anything that can harm the user in any way, like allowing voice to add contacts, or changing anything on the phone. It's a shame, because with the voice recognition Siri has on and Android phone, I'm sure I could program my oven to turn on with a voice-command. And that's awesome.
I'm sure we'll move towards a place where our PACMAN (Personal Assistant etc) is no longer a brick we have in our pockets. I envision some sort of HUD (the new google stuff is really interesting and shows us where we're heading) combined with a tactile surface, like a bendable plastic screen that we will wear, maybe like bracelet. We'll remove it from our arms and get up icons to touch and a surface to gesture on.
But you know what, I will never be writing a long-ass message like this one, or dictating it via a microphone ever. Most of the internet will still be text. We won't start sending only voice memos to each other, and we won't be able to program with voice commands. Keyboards and mice - desktops and remote controls, and even fax machines will be around. Most people WANTED the fax machine to die in the 80s, but it's still here. It's not just that it'll be something young people won't use - these things just won't go out of fashion, much like pen and paper.
Desktop phones will be a bigger part of the office future. I worked with the University of Oslo in integrating a new VOIP system, and that thing is awesome. I made a web-page where you can go in and edit your contacts, see your call logs, push a button to call back. You can set up a conference, and there are phones that have camera and awesome screens so you can video conference. Desktop phones won't die. They'll be Voice over IP. Sure, small enterprises and offices can rely on smartphones and skype, but we're failing to realize how big enterprises work. How many calls go here and there, and the utility of a tactile phone. Fuck if I know. Maybe they'll all just be features of our HUD and PACMAN, but that will be fully integrated in 20 years minimum. You have no idea how sluggish the big corporations work on this. They're 10 years behind current technology.
Maybe phone numbers will disappear. I see it going one of two ways. We all either wake up and realize we're scared about the 'always connected' mentality we're moving towards and we won't upload our entire profiles onto the interbutt so that anyone can reach us. We don't want to be reachable by name, but by number, because there's a separation of layers that we still need. Or we'll all just be lazy and stop giving a fuck.
All in all, it's an optimistic list coming from someone that hasn't really considered the implications of the statements if they were to come true. They're not outlandish, but some things will never change.
Mr. Wonderful
Member
Apparently nobody has used the Magic Trackpad.
it's not always about benefits... sometimes it is to do with systems that are in place. there are some of the world's largest organisations have outdated systems (that would cost millions to replace) that still work on faxes. e.g. banks and confirmations.
i've had to send thousands of faxes over the years simply because it is a requirement of the organisations we deal with.
although in saying that it's kinda easier to send a signed fax than going and scanning the paper and then emailing it (and quicker given that fax machines are largely unused but photocopiers that double as scanners are always in use).
The magic trackpad is certainly novel, even intuitive. It's still not as quick or precise as a mouse.
SuperEpicMan
Banned
I remember having to pull a huge Ethernet cable across my living room, up my stairs, across a corridor and into my room, only to plug it into my PS3 when they first came out so I could play online resistance lol
bengraven
Member
Not for him, but to laugh at the theories.
False, he says that the newborn won't remember them. That gives us 10-13 years max btw. Probably less.
starchild excalibur
Member
Can't wait to laugh at this article in the future. Some of them seem plausible, but many of the items on the list assume are there under the assumption that the vast majority of people will be able to afford to stay on top of new technology. The most far-fetched entry on there is easily Movie Theaters.
Mouse isn't going anywhere soon. Sure touch is great for casual use, but there's still documents, spreadsheets, code, emails, and other things that require more substantive effort and attention that need much more precision and agility than a thumb.
Tablet isn't going to replace the desktop in enterprise, it's going to be another tool to expand the desktop. Work at your desk with the full featured desktop (speed, hardware connections, ergonomic and fast GUI, large screens) while having a duplicated file system on a connected tablet. Go to a meeting or another person's desk with the tablet for simple note taking and code sharing. NOT to replace what a desktop does, but to use it as a mobile extension of the desktop.
The mouse/keyboard won't be replaced until we have neuro-GUI, which is probably 20-30 years out. At which point touch is completely useless.
Tablet isn't going to replace the desktop in enterprise, it's going to be another tool to expand the desktop. Work at your desk with the full featured desktop (speed, hardware connections, ergonomic and fast GUI, large screens) while having a duplicated file system on a connected tablet. Go to a meeting or another person's desk with the tablet for simple note taking and code sharing. NOT to replace what a desktop does, but to use it as a mobile extension of the desktop.
The mouse/keyboard won't be replaced until we have neuro-GUI, which is probably 20-30 years out. At which point touch is completely useless.
This too.
Windows 7 will probably be around even longer than XP will in total lifetime. Lots of businesses are going to cling to 7 because it will be the last Windows OS to primarily use desktop. I could see 7 being used in 2025 by some businesses and government agencies.
Trent Strong
Banned
Why the fuck would big screen TVs have touch interfaces? And why would anyone ever use such an interface?
Smiles and Cries
Member
I feel really old reading that stuff
Not going to happen.
They make it sound like a good majority of movies do same day digital download release, or even some major mainstream movies. As long as the movie industry wants to make as much money as possible, then they have no reason to go solely digital. Why not let people buy tickets to the movies, and then let them buy the Blu-Ray or DD a few months later as well?
I think they forget that going to the movies is almost nearly just as much about the social aspect of it (for most people) as it is going to see the movies themselves. It's not like the majority of people are going to theaters alone. It makes a good date or friends night out; taking your friends or date home to your house to watch a movie doesn't really have nearly the same appeal.
I do agree that ticket prices are absolutely insane right now, and they need to be adjusted so that the movie industry can get even larger numbers then they've been doing. I think if people go to the theaters less, it's likely due to the ticket prices, so if they're lowered, then people will flock right back in.
I can't believe they didn't have the guts to say that 3D wouldn't be dead again. It's starting to wane after this strong 4 year push, or so, and it's only looking to become more niche, and more afterthought.
If the tech trends stated in the article are popular now, wouldn't that mean that they would be cheaper years down the line? In some cases "new technology" maybe the only readily available option for consumers to choose from in the future.
I wouldn't say it's that far-fetched. Many have stopped going to theaters due to price. As the article stated, they will more than likely not go away but it wouldn't be surprising (at least to me) if there are 6-8 year olds 10 to 20 years from now saying that they've never seen a movie in a typical movie theater.
In terms of being able to see the movie on release, a good number don't care. Some would rather just wait and spend less money to watch the movie. I get the social aspect that many of you are saying but there are positives & negatives to it (as with everything). Going to a public place may mean having to be distracted by others and that in itself is also why some have stopped going to theaters (along with price as mentioned before).
Some will just get a group of friends together and invite them over their house to watch films in their home theater setup. So it's still social and at the same time ones don't have to deal with other people that they do not know being distracting.
What's to say there won't be separate touch screen devices that are accurate & act as mouses in the future?
The traditional desktop layout maybe still around for some jobs but at the same time I can see main interfaces being the same throughout all different web devices with a screen made by the same company. Windows 8 is starting the trend. Creative designers may possibly make job-oriented tasks work smoothly on various devices that don't use a current day traditional desktop interface.
Part of the reason why computers replaced typewriters in the workspace was due to good/innovative interface design.
He's just saying that he can't see his son using certain technologies in the future. A good number of people still use CRT TV's yet there are kids who have never seen a CRT TV before.
Like I said before, typewriters are still being used to this day at jobs yet there's many kids and teens that have never seen one in person. People not jumping on board to a popular tech device or trend doesn't automatically mean that the majority of kids in the future will still see that device or trend happening.
Maybe, maybe not. We'll see.
The mouse thing makes me lol.
Right now I can move my mouse <2 inches and it will move the cursor from the left side of my 42" 1080p TV, jump 3 feet of air onto my 24" monitor, across that and then to the right side of my 22" monitor.
Like I'm going to reach over 3 or 4 feet to touch my fucking TV to start a video or something. Not to mention the fact that I'd have fingerprints all over my screens. I'm already constantly rubbing my phone on my jeans to clean the screen.
Right now I can move my mouse <2 inches and it will move the cursor from the left side of my 42" 1080p TV, jump 3 feet of air onto my 24" monitor, across that and then to the right side of my 22" monitor.
Like I'm going to reach over 3 or 4 feet to touch my fucking TV to start a video or something. Not to mention the fact that I'd have fingerprints all over my screens. I'm already constantly rubbing my phone on my jeans to clean the screen.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
people are still using computers with cd players in their computers. not even cd burners, not even dvd readers.
cd players.
technology may progress fast, but the time it takes to make anything 100% across the board takes years.
there are still people who use VHS!
also, i dont want to shout at my TV. what they should be doing for TVs is giving you a small touch screen tablet to be your remote control and selecting options from it.
optical media wont go away because there will always be a need for disposable high-capacity media that is cheap.
cd players.
technology may progress fast, but the time it takes to make anything 100% across the board takes years.
there are still people who use VHS!
also, i dont want to shout at my TV. what they should be doing for TVs is giving you a small touch screen tablet to be your remote control and selecting options from it.
optical media wont go away because there will always be a need for disposable high-capacity media that is cheap.
Which would re-introduce the need for a mouse, because nobody wants to raise their arm to tap a screen all day, and this:
... would be much less efficient and intuitive than a mouse.
I'm all for innovations in UI replacing current standards, but for prolonged periods of efficient, multitasking working, the keyboard+mouse (some people also swear by a trackball) combo is perfect. Any replacement UI would need to be a lot more efficient, both in accuracy and comfort of use over the long term. Touch and gesture is not that UI innovation.
This I could see happening maybe, but I'd hate it. Physical buttons are perfect for channel surfing: no need to take your eyes of the screen. The touchscreen interface works for tablets and smartphones because your input is in the exact same place as your output. This isn't the case with a television remote control.
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