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January 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Final Verdict
Member
Any info about PSVita or PS TV?
OP do you choose [PS4] [XB1] based on who won the month before? It use to always say [PS4] up until now. I remember threads from last gen always said [360]. Heh. Just curious in your formula.
So based on Amazon and the duration of the month at Bestbuy, Gamestop, and Walmart, it seems PS4 won the month. I don't think the gap will be that big though. I'm going to guess 50K.
Also, i don't get why it's thought XB1 will have a similar holiday performance this year as 2014. The only way that happens is if Sony does nothing to the PS4's price. They should have a better lineup too. I can't see Sony letting MS get away with all those deals again.
So based on Amazon and the duration of the month at Bestbuy, Gamestop, and Walmart, it seems PS4 won the month. I don't think the gap will be that big though. I'm going to guess 50K.
Also, i don't get why it's thought XB1 will have a similar holiday performance this year as 2014. The only way that happens is if Sony does nothing to the PS4's price. They should have a better lineup too. I can't see Sony letting MS get away with all those deals again.
Welfare
Member
I'm sure a $299 Halo 5 bundle will produce better results this holiday than last.
Angelus Errare
Banned
True, but I can't imagine MS is thrilled to race to the bottom so quickly while their competitor is being more calculated about it. I also can't imagine MS being too thrilled about PS4 selling to a profit while they have to eat a loss to gain/close try and close the gap a bit.
I don't see them bundling halo 5. They will want to make money off Halo instead of giving it away for free and I imagine they will want TR to get some exposure aswell since it's going up against UC4, the same reason they didn't bundle MCC this holiday. I imagine most people buying consoles next holiday would also buy Halo, which could help offset the inevitable price cut/free game aswell. Maybe we'll see a limited edition console but at a higher price point halo5 bundled, but I can't see it being cheaper than $350, or whatever the normal price is then. Something similar to the AW bundle this holiday is the best we'll get for Halo5 I reckon.
Black Ops 3 slim at an affordable price would sell gangbusters going by how many people are still on last gen for CoD I reckon, plus BO2 was the last good CoD so that could be the game to get people to upgrade.
Welfare
Member
A TR bundle would do better in Europe than in the US.
If MS can get another CoD bundle, but actually make more than like 200k, than that will do amazing.
My prediction would be something like:
$299 Black Ops 3 bundle - slim black - 1tb
$299 TR DE + ROTR bundle - slim white - 1tb
$350 Halo 5 limited edition console - slim - 2tb
Would give all 3 bundles their own unique position in the market without undervaluing one another. I expect TR DE to go free with gold a few months before release so that won't be worth much at that point anyway.
Otoh I'm about 87.68% sure we'll also see something like that around the Holidays
$299 PS4 (with one or two games included for BF, possibly some PS+ to sweeten the deal)
$349 PS4 + UC4 or Family oriented game (Tearaway?)
Final Verdict
Member
Yeah, I think halo 5 LE console is a given....It will be the equivalent of this year's Cod bundle.
I think a TR bundle might make the most sense as Phil has gone on record to say that they like doing bundles with 2nd party games that might need a little push over 1st party games (like halo) that they know will sell well regardless.
Final Verdict
Member
A couple things...
1.) isn't this year's Cod World at War 2??
2.) so you think that they will come out with a 1TB slim model as the new model this year AND lower the price to 299 AND bundle two games with it??
3.)And you think they would sell a special edition console bundled with the game and an extra big HD for just $50 more than the base model?? (the Cod LE console was $100 more than the base version)
Megadragon15
Member
[3DS] 90K
[PS4] 230K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 140K
[PS4] 230K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 140K
wha wha whaaaaaattt????
They're going back to world war 2 era??????
Please tell me this is confirmed!!! PLEASE! I've wanted a WW2 game for soooo long!
The Shogun
Banned
1) It's rumoured to be but Shinobi said it wasn't despite all evidence pointing towards it being so. The shogun also said everything he's seen is pointing to BO3 but i don't know if he's just using common sense or had inside info for that.
2) I think the 1tb slim model will become standard for QB but in seriously limited quantity similar to SO this(last) year, a slim model also comes with reduce costs.. MS also takes the holidays very seriously, if they keep their console at $350 they will lose a ton of steam since the PS4 is pretty much guaranteed to get a price cut. MS would be very silly to not drop it to $300 if they want to have a chance at winning, which they will want to
3) Was it? then I'll say $400, or at the cheapest $379 since it's first party and they don't need to pay Activision. Non US here so I wasn't sure on the price over there.
SDCowboy
Member
How in the world do you expect them to put a 2tb hdd in the console plus Halo 5 for $350? lol
Well, I haven't bought a Call of Duty game since they stopped WW2 era and looks like it's going to remain that way
Yup, could see this happening. Especially as the $349 seems to be permanent at least for the next few months.
SDCowboy
Member
Man I hope we get another historical COD again sometime. Preferably Vietnam.
Welfare
Member
Final Verdict
Member
Oh really, is BO3 confirmed then? Or was the WaW2 rumor just shot down?
Final Verdict
Member
I am not arguing the $300 price point....I think that is a given for the holiday at least.
I just don't see them bundling two games + a 1TB HD for $300
...crazier things have happened though, so I regress.
Also, Halo 5 may be first party, but that doesn't mean that it is cheap to make...
343 has over 300 people working on Halo...(they said the team was as 343 people at the launch of halo 4, so it could be the same)
In comparison, Bungie has 500 people working on Destiny which had a 500M dollar budget (which could have been due to marketing, but still, my point is that Halo 5 will be a very big budget game, and they need to make that money back somehow...).
The Shogun
Banned
BO3 is not confirmed and I'm not gonna confirm it either.
I'm just.........thinking out loud
Dragonborn
Member
If the PS4 hits $299, MS will have to go to $229, or hell, $199 if they want a similar effect to last year. And I mean, at that point what else is there? They have effectively let Sony hold all the cards.
And it's now pretty clear that price isn't their only issue, people just want PS4s more, even if they have to pay more. That, to me, is a much bigger issue for MS (and this is in NA!)
Also crazy that the X1 has a chance of being cheaper than a PS3 by next year, it's dropping like a rock
I'm sure it will do well, i was more talking about outselling PS4. Sony will have they're own bundles and in store deals this time. And hopefully a price cut.
Just my prediction, I may be far off. Though it's really only one game except for the TR bundle, but TR
E which I can't imagine costing MS much at all since it's almost a 3 year old game that will likely become a GWG. TRE may be a wild prediction but I don't think anyone would have expected the AC double pack bundle this year either. A bundle with 2 games similar to uncharted would look good vs an uncharted bundle which is why I went with the two games for that bundle.Definitely going to be a very interesting holiday this year though, it really could go either way and MS is going to have some extremely tough competition. It's really just going to come down to whoever plays their cards right (price, bundled games, specs - as in a slim version and hard drive size) which is why I think MS will be going the full haul with that, because even assuming my predictions come true, the effect of a PS4's first price cut on top of a naughty dog game is still going to be hard to combat.
Chobel
Member
TR bundle (as the primary bundle) makes no sense when you can do BO3 or ACV bundle. Heck The Division makes more sense to bundle than TR. Of course I'm talking about US here.
EA sport bundles are pretty much a given at this point.
EA sport bundles are pretty much a given at this point.
I'm thinking a PS4 1TB Uncharted 4 bundle with No Man's Sky and The new Assassins Creed for $350.
Assuming Sony have the marketing deal with Ubisoft for this years AssCreed
There were deals and special bundles for the PS4 this past Holiday season too. They just simply weren't as good as the deals the Xbox One had though. Think MS will be willing to do it again. Xbox One has a really solid game lineup for the second half of this year alongside the multiplats.
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Well, that's if the PS3 doesn't drop in price too. Don't really think it's crazy -- both the PS4 and XB1 are priced much better than their predecessors in comparison. What's crazy is almost 10 year old consoles still being above $200.
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I think the exclusive deal on Tomb Raider will be wasted if they don't have a bundle for it. The Xbox One will have a packed Fall/Holiday season in terms of games to the point in which I think MS is going to have to give Tomb Raider some more special attention -- especially since they paid for exclusivity and want the game to compete with the PS4 having Uncharted 4.
Enough people buy Xboxes for COD to the point in which it doesn't need to be a primary bundle. Think they'll make a special bundle for it that's higher in price with a special design -- similar to what they did for COD AW last year.
I really think they could win August NPD if they have one for Madden since the console itself is a cheaper price than the PS4 already.
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That would do very well but I don't think it's going to happen. Halo 5 is enough for people to get an Xbox One. A system bundle for it shouldn't be the same price as the regular SKU during the time of its release.
I think there will be a special SKU for Halo 5; $350 or $400 with a special design (or maybe simply a reintroduction of the white Xbox One) with 1 TB hard drive.
slavesnyder
Member
Throw in a morpheus helmet and it's okayish.
It surprised me that Unity's marketing was with Xbox this year after Sony having it since the first game.
I expect it might continue for this generation.
Final Verdict
Member
ahh, ok, thanks for the clarification
I would like to see another WWII cod myself...all this modern stuff just isn't that interesting to me.
Chobel
Member
TR games do better in Europe, plus the game is cross-gen so it has no chance of competing with Uncharted at least not graphically(which what really matters in marketing). Also XB1 demographic is not really the crowd you wanna attract with cinematic games, CoD and The division bundles make a better choice.
And not every exclusive game needs to be bundled, so there's nothing wasted here.
Welfare
Member
*Early 2014
"Xbox One without Kinect for $349 with AC4 and the next AC all in one bundle for the entirety of November and December!"
Poster would get laughed at and told it's ridiculous and unrealistic.
*November 2014
"Well then."
*Early 2015
-insert "ridiculous" bundle for the holidays-
Poster gets laughed at (not saying this happened or will happen) and told it's ridiculous and unrealistic
*Late 2015
"Well then."
MS opened the door for "ridiculous" bundles for the holiday.
Speaking for both PS4/XB1. No way you'll find a PS4 for $350 including UC4 and AC VI, especially since we just saw a Destiny bundle for $450. Nor do I see the XB1 dropping below $300.
Don't think anyone was making bundle predictions with no sale trajectory to base off of so early in the gen. Then again, I wasn't posting on GAF at that time.
Realistically, I can see a $300/$400 TRE/RotTR XB1/Kinect bundle as far as a Black Friday sale. Realistically I can see a $350 COD bundle. Realistically, I can see a $400 H5G special edition console bundled with a 1TB HDD, 2nd wireless controller, and the custom design and all that.
I say the $350 price tag remains the baseline for the entire year, with no effective firesale like last holiday season. The $329 and crazy game bundles were IMO a way to create a large enough install base going into the upcoming Halo 5 launch, which is sure to have a very high attach rate to the XB1.
Don't think anyone was making bundle predictions with no sale trajectory to base off of so early in the gen. Then again, I wasn't posting on GAF at that time.
Realistically, I can see a $300/$400 TR
E/RotTR XB1/Kinect bundle as far as a Black Friday sale. Realistically I can see a $350 COD bundle. Realistically, I can see a $400 H5G special edition console bundled with a 1TB HDD, 2nd wireless controller, and the custom design and all that.I say the $350 price tag remains the baseline for the entire year, with no effective firesale like last holiday season. The $329 and crazy game bundles were IMO a way to create a large enough install base going into the upcoming Halo 5 launch, which is sure to have a very high attach rate to the XB1.
I don't really think that will matter much; Game just needs to have some good ads (whether CGI/cut-scene or actual in game footage). Uncharted 4 is going to be a bigger deal either way but having a well known franchise like Tomb Raider is probably better for MS than them making a completely new IP that's of the same nature/genre.
The exclusive deal would pretty much be wasted if there isn't a Tomb Raider bundle in my opinion. I feel that the Xbox One already has enough "console sellers" in the second half of 2015 (exclusive games and multiplats) to the point in which very few would give attention to the system having Tomb Raider exclusively if MS doesn't give it some unique attention on store shelves. The deal would simply be nothing more than a "console war bulletpoint" if they don't make a bundle for it.
You mentioned COD, and I think it's pretty much a given that there will be a bundle for it. I would feel differently about the possibility of a bundle for The Division if MS didn't already have timed exclusivity on Tomb Raider.
Don't know yet -- both games were announced at their publisher's conference. Guess we will find out at E3.
It happens haha, but did this actually happen last year?
Chobel
Member
I don't think they got RoTR to compete with UC4, they got it because it was cheap moneyhat, being the same genre as UC4 was a bonus. And Let's not forget that RoTR is timed exclusive (rumor is 4-6 months of exclusivity), yeah, that's pretty much "console war bulletpoint".
The Division is online open world 3rd person shooter with insane graphics, and Ubisoft want it to be their new big IP to compete with CoD and BF, so if MS played their cards right, it will be their Destiny.
EDIT: Of course MS also has AC:Victory, another option better than RoTR.
I think I may be quite off indeed, but I am of the believe Xone sales have the most to loose, after the holidays and the price increase. And all tough the price did decrease the other half of the month, public awareness always takes a little time to adjust.
WiiU above Xone is just my wild card really, I reasonably expect it to sell 80k-90k.
Welfare
Member
Oh of course not, at least I don't think so. I was just pointing out that if someone would say that last year, they would be deemed crazy.