Furthermore MH4U and MHX are on the same console.
I don't know what Capcom wants to do now but they'll go from PS4/XB1/PC to Switch and then what? Back to PS4/XB1/PC? This company must think Monster Hunter is Mario.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Furthermore MH4U and MHX are on the same console.
I don't know what Capcom wants to do now but they'll go from PS4/XB1/PC to Switch and then what? Back to PS4/XB1/PC? This company must think Monster Hunter is Mario.
Anyone interested in speculating how many sales Capcom are forecasting for Monster Hunter World?
I know there was a thread on it but the recent Q&A cleared up something.
Here is what they forecasted back at the end of FY3/2016 for FY3/2017:
The unannounced titles already had sales targets. Here are the revealed titles at the first half of their earnings results:
Interestingly, they were able to track demo downloads of RE7:
But anyway, Capcom had forecasted 10 million sales from New Titles for that FY.
They were lucky to beat their forecast due to Resident Evil re-releases because all their major titles failed their sales targets.
RE7 had 3.5 million sales, Dead Rising 4 is less than 1 million, MHXX 3DS is only at 1.5 million now.
With this FY:
They list only two New major titles, one unannounced.
They state it here:
They are going again for a 10 million sales forecast for New titles:
However, they have only two major titles compared to three last FY, and that there are only 37 New titles releasing this FY compared to 42 last FY.
Finally, to get to the point, here is what Capcom said in their Q&A which most likely points to why they haven't revealed their forecast yet for Monster Hunter World.
They were waiting on feedback from the west for the reveal Monster Hunter World so now that will probably be factored into their forecast.
How much are they really expecting though? Are they also expecting their re-releases to generate a lot of sales? They didn't think that last FY where their three major new titles accounted for 80% of their sales target.
So far with this FY, MvCi only accounts for around 20% of the sales target. I'm guessing that they expect their re-releases of the following games to account for around 3 million sales? Resident Evil Revelations (PS4, XB1), Resident Evil Revelations 1 and 2 (Switch), Dragon's Dogma Dark Arisen (PS4, XB1).
I'm thinking that at their next quarter earnings release in October, their forecast for Monster Hunter World would range from 3-4M, I expect 4 million if they can get it released on all platforms: PC, PS4, XB1. Otherwise, less than 4 million if they miss the PC release for this FY.
I know that's slightly less than how the 3DS titles have performed, but it's releasing in their 4th quarter and they haven't outlined yet how they will market the game in the west.
For example, if they decide to do a demo. They should not do it like RE7 where people spent hours looking for things that weren't there because Capcom didn't reveal that their demo would receive patches that added more content to the demo.
I know it helped spread the word of the game but it had people get burnt out when they finally released the full version of the demo months later after people had most likely spent more hours on the first build of the demo compared to the actual retail release of the game.
I know RE7 isn't MH, the point was that Capcom isn't brilliant with regards to their marketing.
I know there was a thread on it but the recent Q&A cleared up something.
Here is what they forecasted back at the end of FY3/2016 for FY3/2017:
The unannounced titles already had sales targets. Here are the revealed titles at the first half of their earnings results:
Interestingly, they were able to track demo downloads of RE7:
But anyway, Capcom had forecasted 10 million sales from New Titles for that FY.
They were lucky to beat their forecast due to Resident Evil re-releases because all their major titles failed their sales targets.
RE7 had 3.5 million sales, Dead Rising 4 is less than 1 million, MHXX 3DS is only at 1.5 million now.
With this FY:
They list only two New major titles, one unannounced.
They state it here:
They are going again for a 10 million sales forecast for New titles:
However, they have only two major titles compared to three last FY, and that there are only 37 New titles releasing this FY compared to 42 last FY.
Finally, to get to the point, here is what Capcom said in their Q&A which most likely points to why they haven't revealed their forecast yet for Monster Hunter World.
They were waiting on feedback from the west for the reveal Monster Hunter World so now that will probably be factored into their forecast.
How much are they really expecting though? Are they also expecting their re-releases to generate a lot of sales? They didn't think that last FY where their three major new titles accounted for 80% of their sales target.
So far with this FY, MvCi only accounts for around 20% of the sales target. I'm guessing that they expect their re-releases of the following games to account for around 3 million sales? Resident Evil Revelations (PS4, XB1), Resident Evil Revelations 1 and 2 (Switch), Dragon's Dogma Dark Arisen (PS4, XB1).
I'm thinking that at their next quarter earnings release in October, their forecast for Monster Hunter World would range from 3-4M, I expect 4 million if they can get it released on all platforms: PC, PS4, XB1. Otherwise, less than 4 million if they miss the PC release for this FY.
I know that's slightly less than how the 3DS titles have performed, but it's releasing in their 4th quarter and they haven't outlined yet how they will market the game in the west.
For example, if they decide to do a demo. They should not do it like RE7 where people spent hours looking for things that weren't there because Capcom didn't reveal that their demo would receive patches that added more content to the demo.
I know it helped spread the word of the game but it had people get burnt out when they finally released the full version of the demo months later after people had most likely spent more hours on the first build of the demo compared to the actual retail release of the game.
I know RE7 isn't MH, the point was that Capcom isn't brilliant with regards to their marketing.
PSP: 12.4m total
3DS: 16.7m total
There's games in development right now that will release on PS5 and the next Xbox
Capcom could have made a pretty reasonable guess at where the 3DS successor would fall power-wise.
Their unannounced title is the SF Anniversary Collection, right? Maybe they are bullish on that too due the success of USFII.
Eolz
Member
I don't understand the first part of your post.
Does the raised awareness done on Nintendo platforms suddenly disappears? There's not some mindshare reset at every new gen, I don't really see how the switch userbase will suddenly become more aware of a franchise that became more popular in the west with a lot of work over the past gen...
Even if it suddenly sells 4M there (which would be what Capcom expects to get up to their 5M and compensate 1M in Japan), there has been a lot of marketing done for the franchise overall since Tri.
With regards to what you quoted. Capcom has other unannounced titles but they don't list those as major titles in their forecasts unless they are expecting them to be million sellers.
Edit: No, their unannounced major title was monster Hunter World, not SF Anniversary Collection.
Sure, every guess until the final reveal had the NX leagues ahead of what it finally was, and that was more than 2 years after the game starting development, but capcom should have just imagined that the future was on the tegra x1
Who said it suddenly disappears? Let's say Nintendo platform versions of MH in the west have a base of 1 million (change this number to whatever you want) then that number would likely grow when the IP and brand has gained popularity overseas.
It'd be a lot easier to convince my friends to play MH Switch with me if they fall in love with MHW next year.
With the reveal of REv1-2 Switch, how SKU's are sill unaccounted for?
Ah, true. They are expecting less than 1M for the collection in 3 systems then? Sounds a bit low.
Not the portable version, no.
I don't think the industry bases their expectations around GAF
Based on 3DS and Wii it was always reasonable to expect the 3DS successor to be somewhere in the Wii U ballpark. I predicted that years ago and I'm wrong about everything, that's how obvious it was.
I'm not sure what you're saying here. Capcom has 37 New Titles (SKU) forecasted, they have released 7 New titles (SKU) so far this FY.
I predicted an 80Gflops 3DS successor.
Someone, (you?) was counting how many of the 37 sku's were already announced.
And you are still wrong because the Switch is not in the WiiU ballpark, but that's not even the point.
The ps5 is planned, I'm sure the devs of those few games already on preproduction for that time have talked with Sony about the basic idea of the system, and also we have a well documented roadmap for APU evolution on the next years.
The situation is not comparable at all.
You predicted that in 2016, when the game had already ~3 years of progress.
NintendosBooger
Member
People overseas are well aware of the MH brand; they just never cared.
They were aware of it when it was unveiled to them as MHFU and MHFU2 on the 80-million sold PSP.
They were made aware of it when it was unveiled as MH Tri on the most popular home console system that generation.
They were made aware of it when it was unveiled once again as MH4U for a system with a 60m+ userbase.
The mainline series never broke-through in the West, and now that it's coming to the PS4 you're expecting not only MHW to be successful here but so much so as to elevate a game that's now being relegated as a parallel series?
LordRaptor
Member
So you're saying that capcom were completely in the dark about the switch until its reveal and had no discussions with nintendo about it.
Okay.
Why interestingly? Pretty easy to get that sort of data from digital marketplace.
Again, this game started in 2013.
Sony/MS clearly loop developers in earlier but not that much earlier. Devs didn't even know how much RAM the PS4 had.
Also Switch is definitely in Wii U's ballpark. I'm not sure how you can say that's wrong.
Skullwaker
Member
Hasn't Mario + Rabbids been in development since 2014?
And in 2016 Capcom likely had near final target NX spec. The game doesn't release until 2018, there was plenty of time here to reevaluate. It's not like Onimusha remained a PS1 game or Dead Rising stayed a PS2 game just because that's how they started 5 years before release.
It was most likely targeting Wii U at first though.
Jawbreaker
Member
Reevaluate and do what?
Well, if the only logical option for you is to dump 3 years of work in the garbage and make a game focusing on a still unproven platform at that time, I have no more time to waste in this.
I'll go back to the basic stance of fuck capcom I hope they go bankrupt soon, as that's the popular opinion here.
Skullwaker
Member
Maybe, but I doubt in 2014 they didn't already have some idea of where Wii U was headed. I'm sure if it targeted Wii U initially, it didn't take long to move platforms.
LordRaptor
Member
If you want to count the year kicking ideas about and prototyping as "game started", sure.
Kaname Fujioka claimed actual production started around 3 years ago, and its not like as they gained information about upcoming platforms they would have had to thrown anything away.
They weren't planning for a PS4Pro or XOX in 2014.
MHW is on its track. I'm just very wary with what Capcom has planned for the series afterwards with regards to juggling these 2 audiences they'll now have (hopefully) fostered. Though I would guess that all depends on MHW's performance.
If they could push a XX localization next year, one could at least argue they're priming the western portable audience for a 2019-2020 Switch MH
If they could push a XX localization next year, one could at least argue they're priming the western portable audience for a 2019-2020 Switch MH
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Why are some acting like Capcom only found out about the specs of the switch recently to when it was released. Capcom helped form the specs of the switch they were almost certainly made privy right from the start.
That's not how things work. Look how much bigger Witcher 3 is compared to Witcher 2 or the explosion of skyrim. Franchises can increase in popularity. MH has yet to get a huge marketing push in the US. I can't speak for Europe but I doubt it had a large campaign there either.
Add in the Wii U+ spec handheld?
The real issue for NX/Switch wasn't really any lack of viability in terms of development timeline. The problem was a lack if faith in the platform commercially and that's not something that was limited to Capcom.
The way things played out are reasonable and understandable, but in hindsight it still looks like a mistake.
That seems like a completely illigical option tbh and isn't really representative of how game development at all works. Perhaps it's a good thing you have no more time to contribute this conversation then.
NintendosBooger
Member
That's false.
Start porting of XX to Switch so it launches with the 3DS version and no kneecap its sales with the announcement of World at the E3, or at least have proper GUI assets for the higher resolution and a couple of bells and whistles. Start porting World to Switch/target a Switch MH release for late 2018/Early 2019 using the assets. Make sure that the Steam version is not delayed significantly and give it higher priority than XB1 on the development stage.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
The game sells 3 to 4 million on Japanese portables most competant companies (litterally any company worth their salt) would have insured such a ran on said portables successor. with ports to other platforms. It's the safest and most profitable root.
Do you think most major western third parties queried themselves over developing games for both the PS4 and XB1 last gen? No because they know what they're doing.
Tri had a marketing push, and 4U/Generations definitely had one as well.
^^^I said a huge one. Nearly every game has a marketing push.
What's false? Did FF not explode in the west until FF7? Franchises can become more popular. Timing, marketing and the right platforms makes a difference. MH itself didn't explode in Japan until it was on the right platforms.
What's false? Did FF not explode in the west until FF7? Franchises can become more popular. Timing, marketing and the right platforms makes a difference. MH itself didn't explode in Japan until it was on the right platforms.
That's interesting. That's spread by how many titles on each platform?
NintendosBooger
Member
Even if you take all 4 PSP titles and measure them against the first 4 3DS games, it's still about a 2 million lead on the 3DS, so the narrative of "MH declining since the PSP" is a BS one.
I don't feel there was actually a lot wrong with Resident Evil 7's promotion and advertising. Awareness seemed good. It's just a game concept that isn't nearly as broadly appealing (especially at a high price point) as AAAA production values co-op third person shooter.
Promotion and advertising in general isn't the issue for AAA games. Initial product conceptualization is usually the stumbling block higher quality titles hit, insomuch that they're just fundamentally unappealing products.
If we're talking small digital titles, sure, awareness is a huge issue. Something like Castle in the Darkness would probably do better if more people knew about it. For AAA games though, the awareness is generally there, and almost every company can successfully expand their advertising campaign to hit new audiences if the product proves to be a breakout success. It's just that people aren't interested in the products to begin with, even if they're rated well, so they never get to the point where it makes sense to buy NFL advertising or whatever. Publishers frequently tried making those kinds of expenditures last generation, and it didn't do any good, which is why they stopped.
Promotion and advertising in general isn't the issue for AAA games. Initial product conceptualization is usually the stumbling block higher quality titles hit, insomuch that they're just fundamentally unappealing products.
If we're talking small digital titles, sure, awareness is a huge issue. Something like Castle in the Darkness would probably do better if more people knew about it. For AAA games though, the awareness is generally there, and almost every company can successfully expand their advertising campaign to hit new audiences if the product proves to be a breakout success. It's just that people aren't interested in the products to begin with, even if they're rated well, so they never get to the point where it makes sense to buy NFL advertising or whatever. Publishers frequently tried making those kinds of expenditures last generation, and it didn't do any good, which is why they stopped.
NintendosBooger
Member
Nintendo doesn't bundle "nearly every" third party game with its systems.
It plateaued for sure and has come down from its peak and is no longer growing in popularity.
A bundle? That's the huge push? How many units were allocated for the bundle and how long did it last. I'm talking big ad buys, cross promotions, multiple event showings. Arms had a bigger campaign than what Nintendo gave MH in the west.
Well that number doesn't take into account the growth and peak of the series on PSP. The first Portable entry debuted at 118k then had the legs to sell over a million. Portable 2nd then opened at 746k and went on to sell 1.7 million. It was at this point that Capcom had a major hit on their hands with the next two entries (P2nd G & P3rd) selling over 4 million each.
The truth is the series has declined since Portable 3rd which remains the best selling entry in the series and probably the peak of the franchise in Japan.
The truth is not BS lol.
A PSP game is still the best selling.
Comparing the first 4 PSP games and the first 4 3DS games makes no sense since the 3DS inherited the success that was obtained on PSP. That wasn't the case for PSP.
NintendosBooger
Member
But it didn't plateau on the 3DS compared to the PSP. PSP has only one 4m seller, every other game on the system selling less than that, while the 3DS has 3.
Incorrect. PSP has 2 MH titles over 4 million. Portable 2nd G and Portable 3rd.
Phrase it like this:
Final Fantasy didn't explode in popularity in the west until FF7 due to FMV scenes.
Maybe "Open World" will be the reason MHW explodes in popularity in the west if it does. (I know the developers called it seamless rather than open.)
Godzilla's Left Toe
Member
Yes.
NintendosBooger
Member
Source?