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NPD Sales Results For May 2017

jonno394

Member
Nintendo is losing a lot of money due to hardware shortages over the last year. They're going to have to ramp up soon to even hit their conservative target.

I feel that their 10m target is what they've been advised is the minimum that can be produced and that this number is locked in, it's anything over this that they will need good fortune to achieve!
 
Nintendo f'd up, bad. They made a great system with great software that will be a chore to find for the rest of this year for those not refreshing in stock now websites daily. New Iphones coming out doesn't really seem like much of an excuse either, they knew this and should have made different accommodations rather than scrambling now. Their supremely conservative business model i fear is going to cost them from the Switch becoming a full-fledged phenomenon. Anecdotally, two friends of mine (no consoles since N64) were hardcore jonesin' for some Mario Kart and for over a month were dying to give Nintendo their money, but weren't able to find one. They've now scratched that itch and MIGHT try again when Mario comes out, but it'll certainly be a bitch to find one this holiday season if the projected stock situation is still dire.

On the brighter side - THRILLED about Horizon's success. It's my personal GOTY in this stacked year. I'm seeing a $300 or $350 PS4 Pro bundle w/Horizon this holiday season that should sell phenomally and be a great showcase game and get plenty of exposure for a new IP.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
How lol my have Netherrealm fighters been outselling Capcom ones for?

Did MK9 out sell SFIV?

If you count the base versions of both games, yes. If you stack all the repackagings of Street Fighter IV in (including the DLC that's sold to the same people), no.
 
Nintendo f'd up, bad. They made a great system with great software that will be a chore to find for the rest of this year for those not refreshing in stock now websites daily. New Iphones coming out doesn't really seem like much of an excuse either, they knew this and should have made different accommodations rather than scrambling now. Their supremely conservative business model i fear is going to cost them from the Switch becoming a full-fledged phenomenon. Anecdotally, two friends of mine (no consoles since N64) were hardcore jonesin' for some Mario Kart and for over a month were dying to give Nintendo their money, but weren't able to find one. They've now scratched that itch and MIGHT try again when Mario comes out, but it'll certainly be a bitch to find one this holiday season if the projected stock situation is still dire.

On the brighter side - THRILLED about Horizon's success. It's my personal GOTY in this stacked year. I'm seeing a $300 or $350 PS4 Pro bundle w/Horizon this holiday season that should sell phenomally and be a great showcase game and get plenty of exposure for a new IP.

I think you're overreacting considering they are ramping up production and it's still majorly in demand. What could be worst is that they over produce units and risk losing lots of money like they did last time.
 

Usobuko

Banned
Persona 5's performance is disappointing. It shows that despite having a very vocal and diehard fanbase, the franchise has problem absorbing new fans. People are always asking about why big RPGs have to be action-oriented. You can find your answer here by comparing Persona 5 and Nier Automata side by side. Turn-based games have an audience for sure, the problem is that the audience just doesn't grow. When your budget reaches a certain point, that audience is simply not big enough..

They already absorbed new fans when P5 was made so many years later than P4. All the positive words-of-mouth through out the years compelled people interested in jrpg genre trying the game out, I'm one of them. I haven't bought P5 because I had just started P4. The NPD guy says it did multiple times better than all other games in that series, that's already a win.

But yes, you're right that turn-based games generally are smaller than action ones.
 

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
I'm happy for both Yoko Taro and Platinum that Nier seems to be sticking around on the charts. It looks like it's really growing into something rather big.
 

Aters

Member
They already absorbed new fans when P5 was made so many years later than P4. All the positive words-of-mouth through out the years compelled people interested in jrpg genre trying the game out, I'm one of them. I haven't bought P5 because I had just started P4. The NPD guy says it did multiple times better than all other games in that series, that's already a win.

But yes, you're right that turn-based games generally are smaller than action ones.

That's my point. P5 has already absorbed all the potential buyers. P4 from P5 is a huge leap in sales, but will the number increase again when P6 come out? I highly doubt it. And it's bad news because the development cost will keep increasing.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
allan is right here, on the money

Yeah, I think they'd be happy with that. Higher revenue at a still high number, plus the potential for long term microtransactions.

There's also not a lot of competition in the coming months, plus the potential for good unit movement with holiday season price cuts given the type of brand it is.
 

panda-zebra

Banned
Depends if you think sub-50k is amazing at that chart level.

Tho In context of VR, having an attach of like 12% or so seems pretty good to me anyway

Thanks, nice to have a rough idea of PS.VR install NA vs W/W. Seems Sony maybe shipped ~50k Farpoint Aim bundles, very hard to find for weeks now away from scalpers and can't imagine many going for the game digitally and having to play with a ds4 despite it being #1 on the PS.VR chart.
 
I think you're overreacting considering they are ramping up production and it's still majorly in demand. What could be worst is that they over produce units and risk losing lots of money like they did last time.

Switch is going to sell well, i'm not contesting that. What I will say though is that they released a brand new Zelda (that's insanely highly rated) and a Mario Kart (I know it's a remaster, but it's a HUGE release) that should have been bonafide system sellers. These two games will never be more "desired" then they were during their release. They sold systems, obviously, but so many, many systems were not sold because they were constrained. In the mean time those trying to find a Switch that can't very potentially could move on and spend their $ elsewhere. Obviously demand > supply is better than the reverse, just hope they aren't missing out on fully capitalizong on their "moment."

I know they don't want to make the same mistake they did with the Wii U, but they gotta get better at projecting sales or something. They've whiffed on the Wii, the Wii U and now the Switch.
 

deleted

Member
Haven't been in these threads for a while - do we still get better data down the road?
Even if only for select titles?

Would be interested in the actual Switch numbers e.g.
 

sphinx

the piano man
what would be some estimates for hardware numbers??

are we allowed to talk about that? I don't see anyone asking or even wondering
 
That's my point. P5 has already absorbed all the potential buyers. P4 from P5 is a huge leap in sales, but will the number increase again when P6 come out? I highly doubt it. And it's bad news because the development cost will keep increasing.
I think it's a little premature to think there's no room for the Persona brand to grow in the West. A jump equivalent to the P4>P5 is probably not feasible, but with no streaming restrictions, a faster release, and some greater presence at public events like PSX and E3, P6 could easily sell better. Turn-based RPGs will probably stay niche, but that niche can still grow.
 
I'm a little surprised PS4 took the No.1 spot, assumed the Switch would grab it easily.
Nintendo really struggling with stock but at least they know they've got a highly desired console in the bank.

How can there still be people buying GTAV? Doesn't everyone already have it 1-2 times by now?

New PS4/XB1 sold=GTA V bought.
 

Aters

Member
I think it's a little premature to think there's no room for the Persona brand to grow in the West. A jump equivalent to the P4>P5 is probably not feasible, but with no streaming restrictions, a faster release, and some greater presence at public events like PSX and E3, P6 could easily sell better. Turn-based RPGs will probably stay niche, but that niche can still grow.

To me P5 looks like FE Awakening: did amazingly well for a niche franchise, but pretty much exhausted its potential market. Given Atlus' financial result last year, I think they do need another huge leap in sales for their flagship title. Especially when they don't have 3DS for their low budget cash grabbers now (no offense to the games, just talking about production value).
 
Nintendo is missing out on a ton of revenue right now. It's not just HW where they're losing money, it's SW sales. They're really handicapping games on the switch right now and I think that will have a a big impact on SW sales. Smaller games like ARMS will feel that moreso than the big ones like Zelda.

I guess the question is when can they sort this situation out? If they really can only get 10 million shipped in this fiscal year then that's a massive failure.
 

Zedark

Member
I expect Switch to be up from May in June but it probably won't be a huge jump.

It looks like PS4 outsold it by a decent amount in May and June will have the $249 Gold PS4.

PS4 should take the month I think
Can you say whether you have seen a spike for the ARMS launch week or is that too specific to divulge?
 

DR2K

Banned
I was thinking at the store today at how stupid it was to release ARMS in the state Switch is in. If I wanted to try Arms out and get a Switch for it, that wouldn't be a viable option.
 

Sjefen

Member
There are tons of Switches here in Norway, every store have them in stock. Maybe I should start selling them to hungry Americans
 

sphinx

the piano man
There are tons of Switches here in Norway, every store have them in stock. Maybe I should start selling them to hungry Americans

yeah but what's the retail price?

americans pay $299 dls.

Everyone in the US can buy internationally this very second, the problem is the terrible deals, shipping alone (and custom fees) makes it prohibitive

At that point you're better off buying from a scalper that's within the US.
 

Sjefen

Member
yeah but what's the retail price?

americans pay $299 dls.

Everyone in the US can buy internationally this very second, the problem is the terrible deals, shipping alone (and custom fees) makes it prohibitive

At that point you're better off buying from a scalper that's within the US.

giphy.gif
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
In the end, the lifetime sales for these game will be millions[apart. Both had things going for and against them, but Zelda won convincingly enough to put this argument to rest.
Didn't realize there was a competition, match.

Was it on ESPN?

What did Zelda win?
 
I don't think anyone has brought this up but at least last month Persona 5 didn't include digital sales. Probably still same this month. Wonder if with digital it had made it to the top 20.
 

zMiiChy-

Banned
Switch hardware stocks are pitiful.

Regardless of what the system is or will become, Nintendo is really missing out by not capitalizing on the zeitgeist of their new console.

As someone previously mentioned, this won't kill the Switch, but it could verily diminish momentum.
 

Zedark

Member
Not sure if this has been analysed already, but Injustice 2 should be over or really close to 1 million units sold.

MK8D first month was 460k. We know from Reggie that MK8D second month is larger than the individual SKUs of Injustice 2, or larger than half of total Injustice 2 sales. As a result, Injustice 2 < 2*MK8D second month, and therefore MK8D > 460k must apply, since Injustice 2 could not be above the sum of MK8D first + second month otherwise. So, Injustice 2 > 920k, and it's definitely possible that it is over a million. A side effect of this is that MK8D is also quite close to a million, so great sales for both series!

Edit: This obviously does not take into account the fact that there are more expensive limited editions for Injustice 2, which could skew the analysis.
 
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