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Oddworld's Lorne Lanning on PS4.5 ( Video )
- Thread starter generic_username
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wapplew
Member
Don't you think your mobile/tablet arguement exactly pain the picture why we should not follow mobile/tablet business model?
Like you said, tech growth so fast, console can't keep up, but where are those games look better than 360/PS4? 90% of mobile games didn't capitalize the power you mention.
Same thing will happen when console adapting this business model. 90% of the game will stay compatible with PS4 even when PS6 or whatever iterations release.
that depends how they do it. there's nothing saying they have to support such old hardware. i'd imagine for something like this to work and it not be at the detriment of graphical improvements there would only ever be 2 iterations out that are actively supported.
in the case of the near future. it would be PS4 and PS4K...but once the NEXT iteration comes out, the PS4 will be phased out, discontinued, and future games would no longer support it, but old games would still run on the newest hardware (backwards compatibility). we'd see graphical improvements every 3 years as opposed to ever 6 or 7 years.
and for the people who really want to cling onto the traditional "generational leap" evolution in hardware, just buy every other iteration which will take ~6 years anyway.
Thanks, somehow it didn't retain the stamp, if I opened in another tab.
Wtf did he just ramble about? Can anyone translate? Did he answer the question?
He would have responded the exact same way 5 years ago if asked about the PS4... many thought the traditional console was dead.
He would have responded the exact same way 5 years ago if asked about the PS4... many thought the traditional console was dead.
Bl@de
Member
Drop the numbers, call it "The PlayStation"
I can see that happening. Don't know if it works out for them though. Interesting months/years ahead.
MilkyJoe
Member
Being able to keep and play your old games on whatever new system comes out forever is great. Just like I can play CoD1 and Sid Miers Pirates on my laptop still.
I'll be all over this.
Althogh saying that, jumping between Sony & MS is going to be very unlikely going forward. Most will either stay in one or the other or both. Hopping between the two would be less attractive.
thomasmahler
Member
It makes sense. I doubt anyone at MS or Sony atm know what the next console generation will be - I'm 100% certain there are already new prototypes and stuff in the works, but it could easily be that both companies want to try iterative updates just to see how the market reacts. Since it's all x86 architecture from here on out, it's easy to deliver the same boxes with upgraded hardware and if that works, there's no need for a new console generation.
If it doesn't work, I'm pretty sure we'll just see a PS5 and a X2 at some point. So yeah... 'if'.
If it doesn't work, I'm pretty sure we'll just see a PS5 and a X2 at some point. So yeah... 'if'.
Horsemama1956
Member
uhh, maybe the dinky little games. Curious how you think you going to get 10-50GB+ games on an Ipad? Just loading the content would drain the battery.
wapplew
Member
Ideally, you plan is sound, supporting 2 iterations at anytime.
But what do you think will happen to the iteration after PS4K?
I think it will sold a lot less than compare to PS4 launch, mainly because less impressive technical jump, no exclusive to push adoption rate and wait and see attitude.
Low install base get less support, publisher will keep making games base on PS4, customers see less reason to upgrade it will turn into chicken and egg situation.
The price for graphical improvement every 3 years might make us stuck with enhance PS4 games longer than a normal generation.
you're still thinking in terms of generations though, and it doesn't apply to iterative hardware. the technical jump is just as impressive over the same amount time. that hasn't changed, it's just not as perceivable if you buy every iteration. like not being able to perceive aging if you look in the mirror every day...but as i said, if you want to perceive a bigger jump, don't buy every release, buy every other release.
there were no good exclusives to push adoption rate with the PS4 either. people flocked to the PS4 because of price and it had the games they wanted to play (made up almost entirely of cross gen third party multiplatform games i might add)
install base is irrelevant too since you retain the previous iterations install base when you launch the new iteration of hardware. it's no longer like the generations we've had up to this point, it's not a "start from scratch" situation where devs are too scared to make games because of a tiny install base. it's simply building on a userbase that's already there.
at some point people will have to upgrade if my system was used since the oldest hardware would be phased out every 2 iterations, but when they do there will always be those previous iteration of games to play on it with that previous iterations userbase. people make a fuss about a few games being added to a backwards compatibility list 2 years after a console came out. imagine a console that can play all your old games no matter what number iteration you're on.
gunslikewhoa
Member
Except he's not talking about the home console market. He's talking about the VR market, period.
TheSlySoul
Member
That is my guess as well. I mean they are going the Apple structure.
Yeah, I was really surprised by that for some reason.
Also he said that Facebook/Oculus has less chance to succeed. And added some interesting notes about Jason Rubin.
wapplew
Member
Why install base is irrelevant? if I want more games make use of the more powerful iteration, I need those iterations sold well.
I will more likely get games build around higher spec iteration when it have a healthy install base, enough for dev to captilize it right?
A slow adoption rate for high spec iteration will get games holding back by lower spec longer than usual don't you agree?
PS4Eva
The Omega Man
Member
Yes, and thanks to its architecture your games will always be compatible.
means nothing. He isn't going to say anything concrete to anyone until they're ready to. Official position on PS5 was always going to be 'if' until they start saying 'when'
possibly. But looking at the history of CPU/GPU in the PC space over the last years, development is relatively slow. Now Sony are on x86 I'm not sure where they're going to get huge jumps in performance anymore.
If they stay x86 and a PS5 comes out, then if it is some crazy jump in performance to the point where they can't maintain forward compatibility with PS4/4k, then at the very least they should be able to maintain BC.
IMO this is partly about getting more money off early adopters - their market research must show them that there is money on the table that they're not getting by waiting 6-7 years between hardware releases. But partly I think it is an attempt to smooth the development path for both devs and publishers to avoid the big bang shifts where everyone needs to adapt to new tools which slows devs down and costs them money; reduces risk because who cares if PS4k doesn't sell 40m - you're now at an incremental cost to develop on top of PS4 rather than a huge cost to change like going from PS3-PS4.
the install base carries over. it's not like generations where you have to wait for it to build up to make development worthwhile or any of that stuff. and there will be no PS4K exclusives rendering it even more irrelevant. for instance the install base for PS4K is the exact same as the one for PS4 in terms of potential buyers. it isn't a new platform remember. it isn't a new generation. it's iterative hardware.
now compare that to a generational system. PS3 had 70million user base. devs had to make choices whether to even support PS4 because the user base started out at 0.
generic_username
I switched to an alt account to ditch my embarrassing tag so I could be an embarrassing Naughty Dog fanboy in peace. Ask me anything!
That is one of the reasons Sony is doing this. You will be locked in their eco system and the playstation platform could continue to perpetually have the largest console install base. Interesting strategy for sure but I am curious to see how it all pans out
AuthenticM
Member
Shu's reply is basically "you mean if there is a PS5..."
wapplew
Member
And that's my issue with this model, no more exclusive that design for the latest hardware.
It's really sad for me to say "I wonder what Uncharted 5 will be if ND could make it as PS5(the iteration after PS4.5) exclusive"
I guess we'll never know.
I understand this move will strengthen thier market leader position if it work, but I just hate that the only gaming device not following PC/mobile business model become every other gaming device I own.
The only gaming platform that still excite me whenever a new generation coming. I guess I just have to accept they all become boring and stale.
thelastword
Banned
Yeah, but it's a quick fix at the best fidelity possible on mobiles. I'd rather a quick fix at high fidelity as opposed to a quick fix at lower fidelity. In any case, cell/mobile technology is moving at a rapid rate relative to performance and power, so issues with load times etc.. are not going to be a big issue. Phones now sport quite a bit of memory and storage options as it is.
I'd also advise you to read up on emerging technologies as it relates to batteries, they are making some waves too and cell phone/mobile batteries have moved to 5000MAh and beyond, power bars/bricks/chargers for mobile devices are also a thing, that is AC-less chargers.
Lorne Lanning
I think he made some really good points. The most important I think he made was that vr goggle tech will progress rapidly and there will be new ones on shelves very often. I think eventually our vr piece may even become eye-contacts and an ear bud combo-piece.
He's right that Sony will most likely win the first VR battle though, it's also the only headset I envision will get a steady supply of content...and it's true that Sony has it's own store to push that content and also to garner more exclusives. Despite the first statement he made though, I also believe that Sony's headset will stay on market the longest, I don't think Sony will upgrade it till PS5, so that's about 3-4 years from now, so they'd have a good userbase and ecosystem by then.
you'll lose exclusives that push visuals in the sense nothing will truly take advantage of that more powerful iteration, the same way nothing truly takes advantage of a titan graphics card on PC or the new specs in the latest Iphone. BUT...if they keep it to 2 supported iterations only, then you'll at least see significant jumps if you buy every other iteration. if you do that (and it's what i intend to do too), from your perspective, you'll see the jumps we see with a generational leaps just like you did before. nothing has changed in that regard.
admittedly it has pros and cons. the idea that coding "to the metal" will probably disappear is disheartening. but i think the things that we get in return are way more beneficial. forward AND backwards compatibility alone is huge. being able to keep up with the jones's at a more frequent basis if you so choose due to iterations being released every 2-3 years is great too. and it helps VR grow too since it can keep up with titles developed for PC VR platforms. the consistent, retained userbase is just the cherry on the cake, being able to buy a PS4K and having 40+ million players ready and waiting to play with online day 1.
i'm happy with this model...but i'm not excited about PS4K...i'm excited about the iteration that comes after it.
RockManiac44R
Neo Member
The idea of iterative console hardware is a little scary to me, purely from a personal financial standpoint. I enjoy purchasing each generation of the xbox, playstation, and nintendo hardware, but if I want to do this but every three years, I really will probably have to narrow myself to one every cycle. I like the idea of buying a console that will give me entertainment for 5+ years. The fact that I bought my PS4 day one and might be considered the previous generation at the end of this year (three years after PS4 release) is crazy. Sony is going to have to really bring it at E3 to convince me that this new iteration will be worth my money and time (another 3 years???)
wapplew
Member
I understand the pro of 2 iteration support method, It's my second choice for iterative model.
But I wish they take a different approach, iterative console with traditional generation business model.
2 iterations hardware within a gen, all supported. When a new generation start, you can carry forward all your digital and retail purchase but no more forward compatible.
Similar to your concept, just cut off PS4.5 and PS4 support when PS5 launch. Publisher is welcome to make cross gen games if they want to aim for bigger install base like they used to.
I get to have my system exclusive, they get to somewhat retain user base.
I think the "if" reply could be some level of marketing response. It's hard to sell PS4 if you say upfront "yes there will be a PS5". Even though we all know it will happen (maybe, I'll get to that). It's like how Apple will never say a thing about the next iPhone until they announce it. We know there'll be one every year. But reminding anyone of that might put them off of buying.
That said, will there be a PS5? I could seen argument for not having one. At least, not in the way we think. I was listening to Kinda Funny's "PS I Love You" yesterday, and Colin Moriarty made a good point that Sony should just wait until 2018 and release a PS5 that's fully backward compatible. Of course, the PS4 isn't backward compatible, so why should the PS5 be? Because if they continue to keep upgrading the existing model, then games will always continue to work. Instead of rebuilding a new console from the ground up, why not just keep updating what you already have? Then previous games will always work (ideally), and new games can take advantage of new capabilities.
So potentially, an eventual "PS5" could be just a (vastly?) upgraded PS4. But will they even bother making it a PS5, or just keep updating the PS4? No idea. I'm still leaning more towards marketing speak.
That said, will there be a PS5? I could seen argument for not having one. At least, not in the way we think. I was listening to Kinda Funny's "PS I Love You" yesterday, and Colin Moriarty made a good point that Sony should just wait until 2018 and release a PS5 that's fully backward compatible. Of course, the PS4 isn't backward compatible, so why should the PS5 be? Because if they continue to keep upgrading the existing model, then games will always continue to work. Instead of rebuilding a new console from the ground up, why not just keep updating what you already have? Then previous games will always work (ideally), and new games can take advantage of new capabilities.
So potentially, an eventual "PS5" could be just a (vastly?) upgraded PS4. But will they even bother making it a PS5, or just keep updating the PS4? No idea. I'm still leaning more towards marketing speak.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
He said the 5-6 year generation console is no longer as viable because of the rate that VR will develop (yearly), so that's an interesting perspective on things.
Turning the Playstation into a digital platform that can be played on different pieces of hardware is the only logical step into the future.
I dont think closed platform hardware will be around much longer.
Well, I did. Seems like it's the future for Sony, Nintendo and Co.
It's clear now that Sony wants to be like Apple here, making some 2-4x power increases with no major breakdown features every 3 years, not 10-15x leaps every 7-8 years.
It can be viable if those new models would be predictable price-wise, like iPhone. Let's say every new PlayStation is gonna be $400. And can sometimes introduce some major functions every 2 generations (once in 5-6 years).
Games fragmentation-wise the situation can also be similar to iOS. You can download some fancy XCOM which is easily playable either on iPad 4 or new shiny iPad Pro. Ok, the one has better textures, better effects, better framerate, but nevertheless both versions are totally cool and playable on both devices.
It can be viable if those new models would be predictable price-wise, like iPhone. Let's say every new PlayStation is gonna be $400. And can sometimes introduce some major functions every 2 generations (once in 5-6 years).
Games fragmentation-wise the situation can also be similar to iOS. You can download some fancy XCOM which is easily playable either on iPad 4 or new shiny iPad Pro. Ok, the one has better textures, better effects, better framerate, but nevertheless both versions are totally cool and playable on both devices.
that's no different to how things are done now, and it isn't a particularly sustainable model. plus by the end of a "generation" your console ends up feeling positively ancient. PS3 (even when it had full backwards compatibility) isn't a good example of how things should be.
if you do as you say, things haven't changed for the better. you have higher costs for developers having to support 2 completely separate platforms that are vastly different in spec, not to mention disc manufacture etc. and you have a weak initial install base when the PS5 releases since it's entirely new hardware. you lose forward compatibility which is a big element of iterative hardware
i mean, why would you cut off forward compatibility arbitrarily just because the "PS5" released? who benefits? consumers certainly don't. people only interested in pure graphical output might. but as i said, the pro's greatly outweight the cons.
thelastword
Banned
From the time we shifted to the x86 architecture with a clear roadmap as to how the technologies would evolve and also that famous AMD slide showing the GPU roadmap with polaris 10, 11 (ellsemere, baffin) with Vega and Navi to follow. I thought it was clear what the approach would be.... A console manufacturer can only implement what technologies are available at the time, keeping in mind that it's for a compact box with low power draw with a focus on smaller parts.
Sony chose the best parts available at the time within budget, they were right on cue for GDDR5, but with the pace at which these technologies are lined up, it made sense for them to iterate at this point, but as a plus to current PS4 users, they did not do so on the CPU which would bring in some incompatibility with current PS4 software, perhaps they're looking into solving that issue for PS5 BC down the line, that is very likely....
As for what we got now on the GPU side with NEO, it's this.
Polaris 10 GPU “67DF:C4” Specifications
•14nm FinFET, GlobalFoundries
•Diffused in USA (New York state)
•Assembled in Taiwan
•2304 Cores (silicon: 2560)
•36 Enabled Core Clusters (silicon: 40)
•New GPU Architecture (not GCN “1.5”
•256-bit Memory Controller
•8GB GDDR5/GDDR5X (when available)
Though I still believe that we got a nice boost to the CPU in consideration of keeping current PS4 libraries compatible. So it would seem Sony tried it's best to keep users of both PS4 systems as happy as possible. The uptake is that when a vanilla PS4 user buys a NEO, he automatically has a library of upgraded games, that is pretty novel in the console space.
Sony chose the best parts available at the time within budget, they were right on cue for GDDR5, but with the pace at which these technologies are lined up, it made sense for them to iterate at this point, but as a plus to current PS4 users, they did not do so on the CPU which would bring in some incompatibility with current PS4 software, perhaps they're looking into solving that issue for PS5 BC down the line, that is very likely....
As for what we got now on the GPU side with NEO, it's this.
Polaris 10 GPU “67DF:C4” Specifications
•14nm FinFET, GlobalFoundries
•Diffused in USA (New York state)
•Assembled in Taiwan
•2304 Cores (silicon: 2560)
•36 Enabled Core Clusters (silicon: 40)
•New GPU Architecture (not GCN “1.5”
•256-bit Memory Controller
•8GB GDDR5/GDDR5X (when available)
Though I still believe that we got a nice boost to the CPU in consideration of keeping current PS4 libraries compatible. So it would seem Sony tried it's best to keep users of both PS4 systems as happy as possible. The uptake is that when a vanilla PS4 user buys a NEO, he automatically has a library of upgraded games, that is pretty novel in the console space.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Iterative consoles can't be every year like a phone. But it maybe able to be every 3 years.....
And Lorne is insane if he thinks new VR headsets will be coming out every 6 months.
dantevsninjas
Member
Treating consoles like phones is just like micro transactions, MOBAs, & MMOs. "Hey, it was super profitable in these very specific circumstances, that means it'll be profitable in every circumstance!" This industry is way too obsessed with jumping on trends, and I'll be surprised if this doesn't blow up in their face like it has so many other times.
wapplew
Member
First off, it won't be vastly different spec, it's no different from 2 iterations at anytime model.
Disc manufacture is same on both model, both need to print 2 different copy, for PS4 and for PS5 disc in traditional model; for PS4 and 4.5 disc, for PS4.5 and PS5 disc in 2 iterations model.
And for forward compatible cut off, it benefit customer and platform holder, it's great for person like me who love my hardware getting fully utilize and hate games getting held back forever.
It's also great for platform holder because their first party can make exclusive to showcase new hardware potential and push adoption rate.
I wanted to be mad for not including Stranger's Wrath, but then I realized Stranger's Wrath was 10 years ago. And then I got sad
MrCunningham
Member
Yeah, and I just don;t see Sony's VR being in direct competition with the PC headsets. To me they almost seem like two completely different markets. I think seeing a new VR headset every 6 months is a bit too much, but I could see it happening yearly on the PC side. Really depends on how big of a market VR becomes, and it is still early times.
I think there will be a console that is branded the PS5, but under the hood it will really just be a more significant upgrade of the same x86 architecture. Sony switched to it to make things easier for developers. Cerny even said they wanted to keep Cell and just iterate on that but decided it wasn't worth all the trouble developers went through to figure out the PS3. I think Sony and Microsoft will want to avoid putting developers through that again.
When the time comes for a PS5, I think Sony will let developers make PS5-exclusive games, but many will choose to make games cross-platform like they do today. You may see them sold as a single SKU that just scales between PS4, PS4.5, and PS5, or maybe just PS4.5 and PS5.
That PS5-branded console may however have some other innovations. It may more heavily support VR. There will probably be a Dual Shock 5 and it might have some new innovation added on top of the current functionality.
When the time comes for a PS5, I think Sony will let developers make PS5-exclusive games, but many will choose to make games cross-platform like they do today. You may see them sold as a single SKU that just scales between PS4, PS4.5, and PS5, or maybe just PS4.5 and PS5.
That PS5-branded console may however have some other innovations. It may more heavily support VR. There will probably be a Dual Shock 5 and it might have some new innovation added on top of the current functionality.
generic_username
I switched to an alt account to ditch my embarrassing tag so I could be an embarrassing Naughty Dog fanboy in peace. Ask me anything!
PS4 and PS4.5 for the next two years and then PS4.5 and PS5 for the next three years and then PS5 and PS5.5 etc...
No-no, thank you for posting this, I think I would've missed it otherwise.
My take on Yoshida's answer is, it's still in line with what he said two years ago, in April 2014. It's up to developers.
http://recode.net/2014/04/11/sonys-shuhei-yoshida-reflects-on-two-decades-of-playstation/