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[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Mainly because Matt has stated that some expectations here (15TF, 32GB RAM etc) should be tempered.

At this stage even Matt isn't going to know PS5/XBN GPU clocks required to calculate final single precision floating point performance.

So the emphasis on banding around TF numbers and RAM amounts is a bit of fools errand. I highly doubt that Matt knows more than us about Navi's expected power efficiency at this stage, so being able to take a conclusive view on how much GPU and CPU can be included within a typical console TDP, and at what clocks, on a 350mm² APU @ 7nm is extremely difficult.

I admit that I don't really know what Matt knows, and I agree that his cautioning tempered expectations is probably the right approach, however, I would argue that even Matt can't possibly know the final next-gen console GPU TFs and RAM capacities at this stage; since GPU/CPU clocks are the very last things to be fixed and as seen with PS4 last minute changes in RAM capacities are also a possibility.

I personally think 32GB of GDDR6 are possible on 256-bit bus in clamshell mode. With RAM prices increasing and whether devs actually need so much RAM is another issue. Next-gen console may take advantage of Vega's HBCC and include fast flash storage that the GPU can directly access, thus allowing them to stick with a smaller, less expensive RAM pool, e,g, 16GB.

On the other side, without knowing anything about Navi's power efficiency at 7nm, it's impossible say what GPU clocks will be set, however, a reasonable view of GPU Compute Units can be taken at this stage, based on the silicon footprint of CUs on previous AMD GPU gens and extrapolating for 7nm geometry within a 350mm² APU die area. I think AmyS' previous post speculating 48 CUs is a serious low-ball estimate.

I do think that 72 - 80+CUs are more realistic at 7nm, but it does depend on both the scale-ability of the Navi architecture, the choice of bus width and CPU silicon footprint (i.e. 4 Zen cores or 8).

GPU clocks are the biggest question mark and are most important in determining, based on what we can reasonably speculate on at this stage, where the final console TFLOP perf. will land.

 

[KageMaru]

The numbers may not seem massive on paper but going from 1080p, 1440p or 1800p upscaled to native 2160p for virtually every game will be massive.

And then there's HDMI 2.1's VRR feature and HDR10+, PS5 will make the Pro look like last gen tech. I have no doubt about that.

I have no doubt that it'll be a nice upgrade. Thing is, you can do all that with a 8TF machine and I'm sure some here would be disappointed in that.

PS4 & PS4 Pro are both in the same generation so if it's a generational leap over PS4 it's a generational leap over pro.

Considering how the Pro has over twice the graphical performance as the OG PS4, this makes no sense.

 

[onQ123]

I have no doubt that it'll be a nice upgrade. Thing is, you can do all that with a 8TF machine and I'm sure some here would be disappointed in that.



Considering how the Pro has over twice the graphical performance as the OG PS4, this makes no sense.

Seeing as Xbox One X has over 4X the graphical performance of Xbox One while being the same generation & Wii had less than 2X the power of the Gamecube but was still a different generation like the Switch having less than 3X the power of the Wii U but being a different generation.

PS4 Pro games are PS4 games so if the games are a generational gap on PS5 that will go for PS4 & PS4 Pro not just PS4.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

At this stage even Matt isn't going to know PS5/XBN GPU clocks required to calculate final single precision floating point performance.

Of course not but then Matt hasn't given specifics to be fair!

So the emphasis on banding around TF numbers and RAM amounts is a bit of fools errand. I highly doubt that Matt knows more than us about Navi's expected power efficiency at this stage, so being able to take a conclusive view on how much GPU and CPU can be included within a typical console TDP, and at what clocks, on a 350mm² APU @ 7nm is extremely difficult.

Again Matt hasn't banded any figures around but some in this thread have. All he has done is tried to steer us to more realistic specs IMO.

I admit that I don't really know what Matt knows, and I agree that his cautioning tempered expectations is probably the right approach, however, I would argue that even Matt can't possibly know the final next-gen console GPU TFs and RAM capacities at this stage; since GPU/CPU clocks are the very last things to be fixed and as seen with PS4 last minute changes in RAM capacities are also a possibility.

I agree it unlikely he knows specifics right now but think some select devs have been told ballpark figures they (Sony) are aiming for (TF numbers or 'X' times PS4 for e.g.)?

I personally think 32GB of GDDR6 are possible on 256-bit bus in clamshell mode. With RAM prices increasing and whether devs actually need so much RAM is another issue. Next-gen console may take advantage of Vega's HBCC and include fast flash storage that the GPU can directly access, thus allowing them to stick with a smaller, less expensive RAM pool, e,g, 16GB.

I actually agree that 32GB GDDR6 is more possible than PS4's 8GB GDDR5. I just feel PS5 doesn't need such an amount of RAM. For all the fuss about PS4's RAM I find it funny it only ever had 5GB available to games.

On the other side, without knowing anything about Navi's power efficiency at 7nm, it's impossible say what GPU clocks will be set, however, a reasonable view of GPU Compute Units can be taken at this stage, based on the silicon footprint of CUs on previous AMD GPU gens and extrapolating for 7nm geometry within a 350mm² APU die area. I think AmyS' previous post speculating 48 CUs is a serious low-ball estimate.

I do think that 72 - 80+CUs are more realistic at 7nm, but it does depend on both the scale-ability of the Navi architecture, the choice of bus width and CPU silicon footprint (i.e. 4 Zen cores or 8).

GPU clocks are the biggest question mark and are most important in determining, based on what we can reasonably speculate on at this stage, where the final console TFLOP perf. will land.

This sort of technical detail will have to wait for probably another year+......

 

[Dynasty]

My random guesses.

24 or 32 GB of GDDR6 RAM.
12 cores for the mobile CPU of whatever AMD has at that time.
1-2TB SSD(probably not) or more likely SSHD.
BC with PS4, so any game you have on the PS4 will work on the PS5, this is why Sony is remastering a lot of games, they want to capatilise on the success of the PS4 and keep you invested in there eco-system.

I also think the price of the console will increase from $400 to $500.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Of course not but then Matt hasn't given specifics to be fair!
Again Matt hasn't banded any figures around but some in this thread have. All he has done is tried to steer us to more realistic specs IMO.

Yeah, I wasn't claiming that Matt had banded around any specific figures. It was more a general comment on contributors' speculation in this thread.

We've generally been too concerned about quoting TFLOPs numbers, when that's likely the hardest thing to predict at this stage.

I say that mainly because AMD has traditionally designed GPUs around sub GHz clockspeeds (with only a selection of enthusiast cards crossing the GHz limit). With Vega, however, AMD pushed the cards clocks way up with the Vega 56/64 clocked at 1500+MHz. Vega was designed around higher clockspeeds, so the question therein arises, whether Navi will follow the same general principle or be more of an evolution of Polaris, for example, keeping a potential console APU clocked more conservatively.

 

[Miniature Kaiju]

I actually agree that 32GB GDDR6 is more possible than PS4's 8GB GDDR5. I just feel PS5 doesn't need such an amount of RAM. For all the fuss about PS4's RAM I find it funny it only ever had 5GB available to games.

The thing with memory is that you can always find use for it, even if it's just to hold more of the game code/assets and decrease storage access (and the added latency it entails).

I feel that the move towards ever increasing expansive open worlds plus the added computational power (both CPU and GPU) this machine will have is going to enable devs to create more intricate and powerful world simulations, but that would require room to keep this world state data as it is iterated.

I can see them going for HBCC, either with a rather large pool of fast Flash; or a setup like 16GB GDDR6 + 16GB DDR4, with the GDDR6 memory acting more like a unified mega-cache.

 

[jelly]

Is RAM getting really cheap in the future or something, the amount some people are guessing is insane, even 2-3 years from now if you consider the lead up to a possible release time frame of 2020/21.

Also, I doubt we will see much of anything until AMD get an APU out on a smaller process that has enough price gains for a console.

 

[Liliana Eileen]

Is RAM getting really cheap in the future or something, the amount some people are guessing is insane, even 2-3 years from now if you consider the lead up to a possible release time frame of 2020/21.

Also, I doubt we will see much of anything until AMD get an APU out on a smaller process that has enough price gains for a console.

This plus people saying 2TB SSDs have me rolling. People need to keep their expectations in check.

 

[Candescence]

The numbers may not seem massive on paper but going from 1080p, 1440p or 1800p upscaled to native 2160p for virtually every game will be massive.

Not to downplay how impressive that is, but that's making big assumptions about every game going native 2160p, and 2160p also introduces major tradeoffs considering the sheer requirements to reach that level (roughly 3x the amount needed for 1080p, if I remember correctly). And that's assuming Sony mandates 2160p or roughly that res. Given the chance, I wouldn't be surprised if devs stick with 1080p purely to get more bells and whistles out of it, because we know devs historically like to cut down on resolution to get shinier graphics in exchange.

 

[c0de]

Not to downplay how impressive that is, but that's making big assumptions about every game going native 2160p, and 2160p also introduces major tradeoffs considering the sheer requirements to reach that level (roughly 3x the amount needed for 1080p, if I remember correctly). And that's assuming Sony mandates 2160p or roughly that res. Given the chance, I wouldn't be surprised if devs stick with 1080p purely to get more bells and whistles out of it, because we know devs historically like to cut down on resolution to get shinier graphics in exchange.

Given the recent talk in other threads, many people seem to be very fine with checkerboard solutions so why even go native at all? Increase the resolution above 1080p, checkerboard, done.

 

[AmyS]

I still hope PS5 is 2 to 4 times stronger / more capable than Scorpio in various aspects of the hardware spec.

CPU instructions per clock: 4X

GPU floating point and pixels per clock: 2X

RAM allocation: 2-3X

Memory bandwidth: 2-3X

Storage space 2-4X

I would think Microsoft will want the next Xbox to be at least 3-4 times more powerful than Scorpio.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

This plus people saying 2TB SSDs have me rolling. People need to keep their expectations in check.

I haven't seen any posts talking seriously about 2TB SSDs. Are you sure you're following the right thread?

 

[Bitch Pudding]

I haven't seen any posts talking seriously about 2TB SSDs. Are you sure you're following the right thread?

My random guesses.
1-2TB SSD(probably not) or more likely SSHD.
.

.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

I still hope PS5 is 2 to 4 times stronger / more capable than Scorpio in various aspects of the hardware spec.

CPU instructions per clock: 4X

GPU floating point and pixels per clock: 2X

RAM allocation: 2-3X

Memory bandwidth: 2-3X

Storage space 2-4X

I would think Microsoft will want the next Xbox to be at least 3-4 times more powerful than Scorpio.

3x 12 GB RAM isn't happening. 2x = 24GB on a 384-bit bus might.

I still think a 256-bit bus offers more headroom in terms of silicon footprint for CPU cores/GPU ALUs, whilst also providing sufficient bandwidth to feed the system.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

.

I assumed it was a joke post... *shrug*

 

[Dynasty]

I assumed it was a joke post... *shrug*

Random guesses, hopes, uneducated, etc

 

[Negotiator]

2TB HDD is more likely for a PS5. 4k games are going to require plenty of space...

32GB RAM (some of it will be for caching) & HBCC will probably allow them to stream data on demand without excessive loading times.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

2TB HDD is more likely for a PS5. 4k games are going to require plenty of space...

32GB RAM (some of it will be for caching) & HBCC will probably allow them to stream data on demand without excessive loading times.

We are talking about a company which stripped USB ports on a newer SKU to save some Cents and chose not to implement a 4K Blu Ray drive on their shiny new premium console.

People really should let that sink in before dreaming about 32 GB RAM or a 2TB HDD.

 

[Lady Gaia]

PS4 & PS4 Pro are both in the same generation so if it's a generational leap over PS4 it's a generational leap over pro.

Peak GPU performance? Not a chance. Essentially all of the meaningful gains over time are rooted in advances at the process level that give you ~40% a year compounded over time. In 6-7 years you get a ten-fold improvement that contributes to one of our expectations for a what a generation shift feels like. The PS4 Pro is held back a little by architectural compatibility, but it’s pretty close to the best you can do at the price point in 2016. The PS5 is likely to represent 3-4 years of advancement at the process node level instead of the usual 6-7. It’s not likely to feel like a full generation from a pure GPU standpoint.

Architecturally? Quite possibly. I can certainly see some dramatic changes with a new generation and the freedom to really take advantage of whatever the latest hardware innovations enable, even if it means dropping backward compatibility. We’ll definitely see noteworthy CPU improvements but there’s also room for some risk-taking in other respects. Memory bandwidth seems like the biggest opportunity, but it’s far from the only one.

 

[Liliana Eileen]

I haven't seen any posts talking seriously about 2TB SSDs. Are you sure you're following the right thread?

24 or 32 GB of GDDR6 RAM.
12 cores for the mobile CPU of whatever AMD has at that time.
2TB SDD or SSHD
BC with PS4, so any game you have on the PS4 will work on the PS5, this is why Sony is remastering a lot of games, they want to capatilise on the success of the PS4 and keep you invested in there eco-system.

I also think the price of the console will increase from $400 to $500.

Just a few posts above mine

Edit: oh he edited

 

[Miniature Kaiju]

We are talking about a company which stripped USB ports on a newer SKU to save some Cents and chose not to implement a 4K Blu Ray drive on their shiny new premium console.

People really should let that sink in before dreaming about 32 GB RAM or a 2TB HDD.

Sony will obviously aim for the cheapest console viable, but they'll also read the market.

Games are only getting larger and consumers are steadily migrating towards digital. Sony is shipping a console with a 1TB HDD right now. It's not really unreasonable that they'll see fit to ship a console with a 2TB HDD in two to three years. They sure won't launch it with anything below 1TB.

As for the RAM, current trends show an ever increasing need for more memory and, as I said before, you can always use more memory. Sony hasn't cheapened out when it came to memory for the PS4, can't see them doing it for the PS5.

 

[Negotiator]

We are talking about a company which stripped USB ports on a newer SKU to save some Cents and chose not to implement a 4K Blu Ray drive on their shiny new premium console.

People really should let that sink in before dreaming about 32 GB RAM or a 2TB HDD.

Dude, really?

PS5 will have BDXL (100GB) as a standard physical game medium. It won't be an iterative console.

32GB GDDR6 is feasible. 2TB is also 4x compared to the 500GB the OG PS4 had. Nothing too fancy like 16x RAM.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

Well, I think they'll do what they did last time, ask devs what they want to achieve on / expect from a new generation console and match that with their desired target price, including the prospect of economies of scale.

What they won't do is working with factors, as in "a new generation needs to have 8 times more RAM than the old one, so let's go with that!".

If devs talk with Sony and they tell them "for what we want to achieve we need 24 GB RAM which we can use entirely for our games, no less!" then I'm sure Sony will listen to them. But if the same can be achieved with 16 GB they won't put a single megabyte more into it just to make sure there's a proper gap towards the old generation, including XOX.

Concerning the HDD, maybe they once again offer two SKUs with different HDD sizes.

Last but not least I hope they try $499 next time, especially if "more power!" is the next generation's major pitch.

Dude, really?.

I was talking about PS4 Pro.

 

[onQ123]

Peak GPU performance? Not a chance. Essentially all of the meaningful gains over time are rooted in advances at the process level that give you ~40% a year compounded over time. In 6-7 years you get a ten-fold improvement that contributes to one of our expectations for a what a generation shift feels like. The PS4 Pro is held back a little by architectural compatibility, but it's pretty close to the best you can do at the price point in 2016. The PS5 is likely to represent 3-4 years of advancement at the process node level instead of the usual 6-7. It's not likely to feel like a full generation from a pure GPU standpoint.

Architecturally? Quite possibly. I can certainly see some dramatic changes with a new generation and the freedom to really take advantage of whatever the latest hardware innovations enable, even if it means dropping backward compatibility. We'll definitely see noteworthy CPU improvements but there's also room for some risk-taking in other respects. Memory bandwidth seems like the biggest opportunity, but it's far from the only one.

I don't really follow what you're getting at but my point is that PS4 & PS4 Pro is the same generation & whatever reason PS5 has for being a generational leap over PS4 the same will apply for PS4 Pro because the games are the same but with higher resolution & other little things.

My opinion is that PS5 can be a generational leap over PS4 & PS4 Pro with 10 TF as long as it bring a big change in how games look & play. I also think that's harder to do nowadays because of compute shaders & things like that so it's hard to do things on one console that can't be done on the others but I think Ray tracing or something like a different control input is going to be what allow Sony to call their next console PS5 other wise it's just going to be a PS4 Pro Turbo.

 

[Okami Haundo]

Well, I think they'll do what they did last time, ask devs what they want to achieve on / expect from a new generation console and match that with their desired target price, including the prospect of economies of scale.

What they won't do is working with factors, as in "a new generation needs to have 8 times more RAM than the old one, so let's go with that!".

If devs talk with Sony and they tell them "for what we want to achieve we need 24 GB RAM which we can use entirely for our games, no less!" then I'm sure Sony will listen to them. But if the same can be achieved with 16 GB they won't put a single megabyte more into it just to make sure there's a proper gap towards the old generation, including XOX.

Concerning the HDD, maybe they once again offer two SKUs with different HDD sizes.

Last but not least I hope they try $499 next time, especially if "more power!" is the next generation's major pitch.

This is pretty much the best take I've seen on this whole scenario. It'd be incredibly smart of Sony to re-use the approach they had so much success with this gen. If they can also factor in developer needs for VR, I think they'd have something really great. If I had to throw in my own guesses, I'd bet that we get a PSVR 2.0 with whatever PS5 is. Not included in the box or anything, just launching at the same time.

 

[GermanZepp]

Hello.

I'm here to remind some folks that PS5 with 15TF and 32GB ram is delusional .


*** PLEASE STAP.***

 

[Melchiah]

It was the same with switch, pro and XB1X. People should stop being lead around by unrealistic expectations. On the other hand, people should not be overly pessimistic either.

Nobody should be looking at 'PS5" as another PS4 Pro, they likely serve two completely different markets. When Sony is designing PS5, they are not looking at the jump from pro or in comparison to XB1X, but the jump from PS4 and XB1.

A 10tflop Navi GPU with 16 to 24GB of GDDR6 at 600+GB/s and Zen 2/3 cores at 3+GHZ is nothing to sneeze at, especially considering since Sony still believes in generational cycles. Due to this, they will allow exclusive games to be tailored for that console to take full advantage of it...which is technically what makes all the difference.

Exactly. Having anything between 8-12TF as a baseline would be a huge improvement on the current one, particularly with a better CPU. Hell, I imagine that even something like XBX's 6TF would reap impressive results, if it was the baseline the games were made on.

 

[deriks]

It will be just a little better than a Xbox One X

 

[jdstorm]

Not going to do concrete predictions, but my close enough vague ones are

CPU: the best they can afford at the targeted pricepoint
RAM: more then you think. This amount has to be viable in 2026 or later and in a PS5 Pro.
GPU: just enough to brag in marketing that its better then the X1X. Lack of Power an advantage as it makes it easier to upsell consumers to the PS5 Pro a few years later which will have an impressive GPU

HD: bold prediction. Sony will include 2 HD slots in the PS5. One for the standard PC HD that the PS4 has (likely 1TB ×5400 rpm, 7200 if they are feeling generous). The 2nd slot will be an easily accessed slot for a SSD with a proprietary connector (Think N64 expansion pack) that will allow sony to sell SSD's at highly marked up prices to people who must have the latest/fastest tech.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Exactly. Having anything between 8-12TF as a baseline would be a huge improvement on the current one, particularly with a better CPU. Hell, I imagine that even something like XBX's 6TF would reap impressive results, if it was the baseline the games were made on.

i agree

 

[Matt]

It will be just a little better than a Xbox One X

Nah.

 

[KageMaru]

Seeing as Xbox One X has over 4X the graphical performance of Xbox One while being the same generation & Wii had less than 2X the power of the Gamecube but was still a different generation like the Switch having less than 3X the power of the Wii U but being a different generation.

PS4 Pro games are PS4 games so if the games are a generational gap on PS5 that will go for PS4 & PS4 Pro not just PS4.

I don't know if you're trying to be obtuse or really don't understand the point. You bring up consoles that are technically part of a new generation but many here don't consider to have a generational leap in performance. This thread is about what we could expect in a next gen PlayStation. The Wii, Wii-U, and Switch have nothing to do with this thread even though they have been considered "next gen" systems compared to the previous systems.

There are people here expecting 16TF+ monsters and I can understand why they want that. With the Pro at 4.2TF, a ~9TF GPU may be disappointing since it's little more than 2x the jump in performance. However let's take away the Pro and I'm sure many here would consider the leap from the original PS4 closer to expectations. The PS4 is the base model, it's what the masses are buying, not the Pro. Yes the Pro is considered part of this generation but we won't see nearly the same leap from the Pro as we will see from the OG model. When purely talking about graphical performance, your posts make no sense.

I don't really follow what you're getting at but my point is that PS4 & PS4 Pro is the same generation & whatever reason PS5 has for being a generational leap over PS4 the same will apply for PS4 Pro because the games are the same but with higher resolution & other little things.

My opinion is that PS5 can be a generational leap over PS4 & PS4 Pro with 10 TF as long as it bring a big change in how games look & play. I also think that's harder to do nowadays because of compute shaders & things like that so it's hard to do things on one console that can't be done on the others but I think Ray tracing or something like a different control input is going to be what allow Sony to call their next console PS5 other wise it's just going to be a PS4 Pro Turbo.

We're not getting Ray tracing next gen. With the increase in CPU performance, we'll likely see advancements in world simulations.

 

[onQ123]

I don't know if you're trying to be obtuse or really don't understand the point. You bring up consoles that are technically part of a new generation but many here don't consider to have a generational leap in performance. This thread is about what we could expect in a next gen PlayStation. The Wii, Wii-U, and Switch have nothing to do with this thread even though they have been considered "next gen" systems compared to the previous systems.

There are people here expecting 16TF+ monsters and I can understand why they want that. With the Pro at 4.2TF, a ~9TF GPU may be disappointing since it's little more than 2x the jump in performance. However let's take away the Pro and I'm sure many here would consider the leap from the original PS4 closer to expectations. The PS4 is the base model, it's what the masses are buying, not the Pro. Yes the Pro is considered part of this generation but we won't see nearly the same leap from the Pro as we will see from the OG model. When purely talking about graphical performance, your posts make no sense.

We're not getting Ray tracing next gen. With the increase in CPU performance, we'll likely see advancements in world simulations.

if it's a generational gap over PS4 it will also be a generational gap over PS4 Pro.

GPU flops isn't everything you can't just say 5X GPU power = generational gap , PS4 Pro games are PS4 games so whatever separate the PS5 games from PS4 games will also apply to PS4 Pro.

There is no set number for what makes a generational gap, Xbox One GPU is ~ 5.4 X the FLOPs as the Xbox 360 & Xbox One X will be ~ 4.5 X the Xbox One but Xbox One X is not considered a generational gap because the games will for the most part look & play the same.

 

[AmyS]

Full-on ray tracing probably won't be possible even on a PS6. That's probably another 3 console cycles away assuming each is still 6 years. Meaning no RT until the 2030s. That said, perhaps a hybrid rendering model (rasterization / RT) could be possible in the mid/late 2020s. I really don't know. I'd imagine developer's graphics / rendering / art pipelines would need to undergo a major change. And a lot more might be done with global illumination and various tricks in the nearer term.

 

[Theonik]

The main reason you're not getting ray tracing is because it's incredibly inefficient. It's basically bruteforce lighting.
Unless you have an excess of power, you have no reason to implement it.

 

[Miniature Kaiju]

The main reason you're not getting ray tracing is because it's incredibly inefficient. It's basically bruteforce lighting.
Unless you have an excess of power, you have no reason to implement it.

Yeah, I was going to post exactly that. And even if you've got excess power, there are better things to do with that power.

 

[onQ123]

Full-on ray tracing probably won't be possible even on a PS6. That's probably another 3 console cycles away assuming each is still 6 years. Meaning no RT until the 2030s. That said, perhaps a hybrid rendering model (rasterization / RT) could be possible in the mid/late 2020s. I really don't know. I'd imagine developer's graphics / rendering / art pipelines would need to undergo a major change. And a lot more might be done with global illumination and various tricks in the nearer term.

I was just making a example & yeah it would be hybrid just using the raytracying for reflections , shadows & things like that.

 

[onQ123]

The main reason you're not getting ray tracing is because it's incredibly inefficient. It's basically bruteforce lighting.
Unless you have an excess of power, you have no reason to implement it.

And that's why you use hardware that's made for ray tracing & not try to brute force it , even something like the ID buffer hardware in the PS4 Pro could be used to aid hybrid ray tracing.

 

[kyser73]

By the time the hardware for real-time ray tracing becomes cheap enough to stick in a console someone will have figured out the math to get basically the same effects for about 1/3 of the power budget.

I fully expect a great many titles that use 2160cb (like HZD) as their main output method rather than fully native 4K even with the additional power, because that can then be used elsewhere.

This is an interesting article on the cost per GB of HDDs. Interesting because it is written by a cloud storage company, who are buying HDDs in commercial quantities (admittedly these are 3.5" note 2.5" drives) which might give a better steer on potential storage for the PS5...which I fully believe will still be spinning rust and not solid state...possibly SSHD, with the SSD reserved for the OS for speedy startup.

Bearing in mind Matt's tempered expectations comment, I'm still with:

12TF
16-24GB RAM
2TB HDD, possibly SSHD.

I think Sony will be looking at consumer response to X1X pricing very carefully too - by this I don't just mean if people buy it, but whether it's perceived as being 'too much' for a console and that switches people off buying it straight away, or only if/when it's price compared to the rest of the market. If it's the latter, I wouldn't be surprised by a >$399 pricepoint.

I did have a completely random dream the other night of Sony unveiling what amounts to a modular PC with discreet boxes that can be changed as new ones become available, and it just being called 'Playstation' and that is Sony's pathway to iterative console design - PC upgrade style without having to open the box up, install drivers etc, just plug & play. I know it won't happen because building the custom upgrade parts would be too risky business-wise and Sony would fuck it up by making it some dumb proprietary nonsense, rather than use universal standards to enable manufacturers to just be able to drop cards into the required form factor.

Anyway...people stop being crazy with <15TF, 32GB ram etc. and focus on what an 6-8x more powerful GPU coupled with a decent CPU could bring to the table. I think it could be pretty damn amazing.

 

[kungfuian]

If these mid-gen upgrades prove that 2 variations of the same device can be on the shelf at the same time then why not release both at once? What would it be like if Sony launched 2 versions of the PS5 at the same time; a regular and a premium?

 

[KageMaru]

if it's a generational gap over PS4 it will also be a generational gap over PS4 Pro.

GPU flops isn't everything you can't just say 5X GPU power = generational gap , PS4 Pro games are PS4 games so whatever separate the PS5 games from PS4 games will also apply to PS4 Pro.

There is no set number for what makes a generational gap, Xbox One GPU is ~ 5.4 X the FLOPs as the Xbox 360 & Xbox One X will be ~ 4.5 X the Xbox One but Xbox One X is not considered a generational gap because the games will for the most part look & play the same.

You're not getting my point and I'm not really sure how else to explain it.

If these mid-gen upgrades prove that 2 variations of the same device can be on the shelf at the same time then why not release both at once? What would it be like if Sony launched 2 versions of the PS5 at the same time; a regular and a premium?

This wouldn't work out because I'd imagine Sony would pack the most bang for the buck at lunch anyway. The only reason we got these mid-gen refreshes is due to the die shrink.

 

[kungfuian]

This wouldn't work out because I'd imagine Sony would pack the most bang for the buck at lunch anyway. The only reason we got these mid-gen refreshes is due to the die shrink.

I know this doesn't sound logical from a traditional platform perspective (chip sets are chip sets) but once we get into mid-gen refreshes I think it all gets muddy. I could imagine Microsoft doing something like this for sure (Sony less so).

 

[Samanosuke Akechi]

11/22/19
$399
20x more power than X.
BC W/PS4
Touchpad removed for dualshock 5/Analog buttons return.
1TB HD
18gb GDDR5
12TF

Spoiler

Just a little prediction I made. No idea if I'm close lol

 

[TheUndeadGamer]

Bearing in mind Matt's tempered expectations comment, I'm still with:

12TF
16-24GB RAM
2TB HDD, possibly SSHD.

To me, those specs sound reasonable. I'd be a little bummed if the HDD wasn't a SSHD. But considering you can change HHDs I guess that's a minor issue.

 

[Melchiah]

Bearing in mind Matt's tempered expectations comment, I'm still with:

12TF
16-24GB RAM
2TB HDD, possibly SSHD.

That sounds pretty reasonable to me as well. 12TF is the maximum I expect.

 

[Putty]

Ok ill go with....

8 core Zen
16g ram
Around 15tf gpu
1tb drive
Lashings and lashings of bandwidth goodness...(3 times vanilla PS4)
Lots of little tweaks and whatnots
All at a $449 PP....Q4 2019

 

[TechnicPuppet]

11/22/19
$399
20x more power than X.
BC W/PS4
Touchpad removed for dualshock 5/Analog buttons return.
1TB HD
18gb GDDR5
12TF

Spoiler

Just a little prediction I made. No idea if I'm close lol

How can it be 20x more powerful than X with 12TF. That's twice as powerful.

 

[Renekton]

How can it be 20x more powerful than X with 12TF. That's twice as powerful.

Also BC with PS4 yet removed the touchpad lol

 

[score01]

To me, those specs sound reasonable. I'd be a little bummed if the HDD wasn't a SSHD. But considering you can change HHDs I guess that's a minor issue.

I doubt Sony would take the hit on the cost for a SSD on each model. Maybe an elite or pro type sku. If Sony keeps the HD user changeable then it will be a standard stock HD which the hardcore can swap out if with an SSD if they want to.