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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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I'd say that's a fair assessment. Running him would be a smart move in that a conventional candidate would have very little chance so you might as well roll the dice. Except that if he wins then you have Kid Rock representing your party.
 
DG9beiVUwAACt91.jpg

http://newdemocracy.net/about/


This "centrist" Dem group "New Democracy" is fucking garbage.
Also it's unUm, not unAm. If you're going to claim you care about it, at least spell it right.
 
I'd say that's a fair assessment. Running him would be a smart move in that a conventional candidate would have very little chance so you might as well roll the dice. Except that if he wins then you have Kid Rock representing your party.

Like, I think it's their best shot of winning the seat. The problem is that it's Kid Rock.

I would be more nervous if it were 2018 and Hillary Clinton were president. But she's not, Democrats are leading by almost 10 points on the generic ballot, and Stabenow is an entrenched incumbent. Take him seriously, but in the end, this will probably be as worthwhile as Rob Quist, Alison Lundergan Grimes, or Michelle Nunn.
 
If Clinton were president I'd be legitimately concerned about Republicans getting 60 Senate seats between 2018 and 2020 gains. But she isn't so I'm not.

Regarding Stabenow specifically I'd be nervous if indications were she's treating him as a joke, but she isn't so I'm not really worried. Just he's probably their best shot even if he's a bad one. I don't think we're really in disagreement here.
 

Pyrokai

Member
Did you see the news about Sinclair buying more TV stations around the US? They are going to own basically half of local TV stations in the USA. They are forcing the local stations to run segments from Boris Epshtein, a trump subordinate, talking about how great Trump is.


Yes. We are FUCKED.
 
Yeah, if she had won then the republicans could just block all her legislation anyways and blame her for anything bad that happens like they did with obama.

At least this way republicans get exposed for the hacks that they are, and we've got a shot for a blue wave.
 
The Sinclair acquisitions are legitimately a bad thing but at the same time there's only so much you can do when your standard bearer is Donald Trump, and manifestly bad at his job Donald Trump, not promising everything because he has no track record Donald Trump.
 
A few of the Sinclair stations air the "must broadcast" segments at like 3am. I imagine more will do that if they acquire these Tribune stations.
 

Pyrokai

Member
That's true but don't forget Nixon won 60% and McGovern with 37% of the vote in '72 and Ford won 48% and Carter won 50% in '76. So while Carter won narrowly, it was still a ~21% swing towards Democrats.

Also Democrats picked up 49 seats in the House in 1974 midterms.

But were they dealing with the onslaught of propaganda we're dealing with today?
 
But were they dealing with the onslaught of propaganda we're dealing with today?

No, but I don't expect a 20% swing or for Democrats to pick up a 2/3rd majority in the House of Representatives. I was pointing out that a narrow victory by Carter in 76 was still a large swing from the previous presidential election and Nixon had a large negative impact on the Republican party post-watergate.

Regardless of polarization, Trump is making Democratic majorities more likely in 2018 and 2020 elections. It doesn't mean the Democratic are going to sweep everything but they can have functioning majorities in Congress, and State governments.
 

TheSun

Member
Alright, so my brother gotten into political talk.
Couple points:

-NK keeps threatening us, why is it wrong to take them seriously.
(Because they are just escalating a problem rather than fix it)

-Clintons supplying Nk with nuclear tech and shit.
(Never heard of this)

-They keep testing missiles, how come China never stopped that while stopping anti air equipment in SK.
(Again never heard of this)

-Some stuff about how Kim is worse than Trump.
(no shit, but Trump is still really shit)

He seems really into the both sides stuff, but I was curious about the shit he said.
 
Alright, so my brother gotten into political talk.
Couple points:

-NK keeps threatening us, why is it wrong to take them seriously.
(Because they are just escalating a problem rather than fix it)

-Clintons supplying Nk with nuclear tech and shit.
(Never heard of this)

-They keep testing missiles, how come China never stopped that while stopping anti air equipment in SK.
(Again never heard of this)

-Some stuff about how Kim is worse than Trump.
(no shit, but Trump is still really shit)

He seems really into the both sides stuff, but I was curious about the shit he said.

1. Correct

2. Not true, NK nuclear know how came from Pakistani scientists. Clinton's admin was close a deal like the Iran one, but that fell through.

3. China is NK's ally and NK exists as a strategic buffer state from US troops. China spilled a lot of Chinese blood in the Korean War to push the US back from their border.

4. Trump is a terrible President, probably the worst but Kim is a terrible despot, entirely different leagues of bad
 

TheSun

Member
1. Correct

2. Not true, NK nuclear know how came from Pakistani scientists. Clinton's admin was close a deal like the Iran one, but that fell through.

3. China is NK's ally and NK exists as a strategic buffer state from US troops. China spilled a lot of Chinese blood in the Korean War to push the US back from their border.

4. Trump is a terrible President, probably the worst but Kim is a terrible despot, entirely different leagues of bad

Thanks man.

It's redundancy and speaking over others with him.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
You said "the variables are similar". Hillary starts out as a candidate who has never actually won Michigan before and then lost it by 10,000 votes. How is that a similar variable to someone who won the state three times beforehand? Like, I guess if you want to be needlessly obtuse, sure, fine. You can say that none of that matters and all that matters is that Trump won Michigan by 10,000 votes and Kid Rock has a 50/50 chance of winning Michigan and beating a three term incumbent. I would say you're being foolish, ignoring Trump's sinking popularity in Michigan, as well as the general dynamics that happen in a midterm to make your own point that Michigan Is More Racist And Sexist Than Anyone On NeoGAF Believes! Which, fine, that's your prerogative. I think that Kid Rock would have a decent shot if Hillary were president. I think, at best, he can hold Stabenow to below 55% given the dynamics of the year, which matter more than what you report on the sexism of Michigan.

And what does gerrymandering have to do with anything?

I'm just trying to have a civil conversation. Talking down to me like I'm some plebe is immature at best and makes me want to ignore you completely at worst. If you want that, just let me know and I'll be glad to not respond to your posts. If I'm reading your tone wrong, I apologize--massive migraine going on right now.

Look--I lived there for decades and have political connections there I'd rather not get into here. You can act like I don't know anything about how it's going in the state if that's your prerogative, but I think I've got a much better idea than a lot of people on this board. Trust me--democrats are FREAKING OUT behind the scenes about the brain drain issue and rural spread throughout the state.

Trump's popularity is falling everywhere. Not sure why you're bringing it up. That said, there's no real indication that it is happening in Michigan merely because we don't have any solid polls since May. The Gallup poll is an odd one that isn't necessarily as useful as a solid, standalone poll. I'd like to see one soon, though, and I'm a little surprised they haven't done one in a while (speaking of, why haven't we seen individual state polls recently? Expensive to run and not useful at this far point from the election?). We do know that his popularity in counties that won him the election is still pretty high (above 50%), but I still don't see what this has to do with Ritchie running against Stabenow. He's a popular, beloved rock star but nobody is tying him to Trump at this time.

As for gerrymandering, it was just mentioned as an addition to the whole "the entire political climate has changed" scenario.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
See, but the feelings of battleground state voters were that racism is awesome, so I think we should try really hard to replicate the mistake of not being properly attuned to them

But that isn't true. If you look at Michigan, 47.5% of the people voted for Trump and 47.3% voted for Hillary. Margins in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were hardly wider. A smarter campaign could have more properly articulated why Trump's xenophobic populism is not a fit solution for the real problems of these areas, retaining enough of the rust belt Democrats who voted for Obama in the last two elections.

Much more importantly, turnout in battleground states was never higher than 65%. This means that millions of registered voters in all the large states stayed home. If Hillary had turned out 2 or 3% more of the electorate which did not vote, she'd have won every swing state besides Arizona and North Carolina. A huge part of Trump's success was in turning out people who previously had not voted, particularly in the white rural areas particularly receptive to his bigotry. Had Hillary turned out more first-time voters, as was key to Obama's success, she'd be president.

DG9beiVUwAACt91.jpg

http://newdemocracy.net/about/


This "centrist" Dem group "New Democracy" is fucking garbage.

that bullshit about "national identity" is one beer away from outright white nationalism
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
To clarify: I think the Kid Rock thing is a publicity stunt. I don't think he was ever serious about running, but the republicans are now going to try to get him to.
 
Stabenow won there before but she's never gone up against an insane celebrity. Part of me still feels the "LOL Trump", "LOL Kid Rock!", temptation is too much for people to resist. I'd like for people to more regularly prove they have the self restraint to reject crazy people in elections before being super confident that it'll be a hold. The dynamics here are different because a normal mid term doesn't account for a weird candidate like that.

All he has to say is this. "She's been senator of the state for 18 years and what's she done? Place still sucks. If she was going to do any of the stuff she said she'd do she would have done it already. I'm a crazy celebrity maybe I can do some stuff". And most people he's targeting will go "he's got a point".

Also not a safe bet that Trump's votes in michigan will = Kid Rock's votes in Michigan. Trump went to Michigan and campaigned there like a week before the election an managed to flip it. Kid Rock will specifically be campaigning there the entire time. Playing concerts in rural areas nobody goes to to excite people and drive up turn out.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
But that isn't true. If you look at Michigan, 47.5% of the people voted for Trump and 47.3% voted for Hillary. Margins in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were hardly wider. A smarter campaign could have more properly articulated why Trump's xenophobic populism is not a fit solution for the real problems of these areas, retaining enough of the rust belt Democrats who voted for Obama in the last two elections.

Much more importantly, turnout in battleground states was never higher than 65%. This means that millions of registered voters in all the large states stayed home. If Hillary had turned out 2 or 3% more of the electorate which did not vote, she'd have won every swing state besides Arizona and North Carolina. A huge part of Trump's success was in turning out people who previously had not voted, particularly in the white rural areas particularly receptive to his bigotry. Had Hillary turned out more first-time voters, as was key to Obama's success, she'd be president.



that bullshit about "national identity" is one beer away from outright white nationalism

Absolutely. The issue isn't relating to racist, rural voters, and any democratic campaign that focuses on that is going to be in trouble. The issue is giving the people who didn't feel like they had a reason to vote to get out and go to the polls.
 
Kid Rock is a gigantic phony. He so far removed from the people he's trying to appeal to it should be easy as fuck to paint him in a negative light.

Ritchie was born on January 17, 1971, in Romeo, Michigan, to William "Bill" Ritchie, a car dealer who owned several local dealerships, and Susan Ritchie. He grew up on a six-acre estate[5] where Robert regularly helped pick apples and cared for the family's horses.

Maybe people will channel their inner prosperity gospel for him like they did Trump, but IMO Trump was at least authentic in his NY / Lavish upbringing and life. He played it to his advantage in fact.
 
Also not a safe bet that Trump's votes in michigan will = Kid Rock's votes in Michigan. Trump went to Michigan and campaigned there like a week before the election an managed to flip it. Kid Rock will specifically be campaigning there the entire time. Playing concerts in rural areas nobody goes to to excite people and drive up turn out.

That logic actually works against Kid Rock here. Trump faced someone who never campaigned or spent much in Michigan, not an entrenched Michigan incumbent with deep hooks into the state. Hillary couldn't even win a primary in Michigan and then never put put much effort into it for the main campaign.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
Absolutely. The issue isn't relating to racist, rural voters, and any democratic campaign that focuses on that is going to be in trouble. The issue is giving the people who didn't feel like they had a reason to vote to get out and go to the polls.

Yeah!

I think way too many of us forget how many people weren't encouraged to vote at all. Focusing on Obama voters who went for Trump is less important and productive than focusing on people who didn't vote for anyone.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Yeah!

I think way too many of us forget how many people weren't encouraged to vote at all. Focusing on Obama voters who went for Trump is less important and productive than focusing on people who didn't vote for anyone.

The people who don't vote...well it's impossible to know what they want because they don't vote and don't get involved. No one has any idea what they want because they don't speak up, hell it could be they don't care about any of it so long as the world keeps on turning and they can put food on the table. Any assumption that a specific idea or ideology will get them to the polls would just reveal the ideology of the person suggesting it and nothing more.
 
What the GOP does if he's hypothetically impeached is interesting. His approval is going to have to be in the shitter for them to start actual impeachment so, I would imagine they would be less worried about upsetting his crazed base if he ever were impeached. His crazed base is the only reason they tolerated him in the first place.

If they no longer fear his base why would they fear coalescing around Pence or Ryan?

When does this hypothetical impeachment happen too? Before 2018 when dems have no control? After 2018 when the Dems could maybe pick up the house? During an election year?

Ain't that the question huh? Are they waiting on Mueller to pull the trigger? Were they really expecting Pres. Babyhands to behave? Now they got a good shot at this blowing up in 2018 and not having anything done for that base, and what they have tried being abhorrant to the country at large. God that party got so damn stupid.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Kid Rock is a gigantic phony. He so far removed from the people he's trying to appeal to it should be easy as fuck to paint him in a negative light.



Maybe people will channel their inner prosperity gospel for him like they did Trump, but IMO Trump was at least authentic in his NY / Lavish upbringing and life. He played it to his advantage in fact.

A week or two ago I mentioned that should be the first thing Stabenow does--establish the fact that his persona is a farce. Rural people hate fake rural people when shown they are fake.
 

kirblar

Member
A week or two ago I mentioned that should be the first thing Stabenow does--establish the fact that his persona is a farce. Rural people hate fake rural people when shown they are fake.
Use all the corny stock upper class classical violin music you can find in the background of the ads.
 
A week or two ago I mentioned that should be the first thing Stabenow does--establish the fact that his persona is a farce. Rural people hate fake rural people when shown they are fake.

Yeah at least with Trump he went in all braggadocios about it. "I am rich and I came from money and I know how to make it" vs "I'm an everyday american. Please ignore the fact that I've never been an everyday american"
 
RIP Venezuela

Katy Tur‏ @KatyTurNBC 5 minutes ago
Trump:We have many options for Venezuela including a military option. Q: US led? Trump: I don't talk about that.

Christopher Hayes‏ @chrislhayes 6 minutes ago
Now he's threatening Venezuela with US military operations.
 
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