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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
ShadowSwordmaster said:
Would that even work?
Click to expand...

In a normal situation where we were attacked and the president is responding? Sure.

In a situation where Trump's been threatening nuclear war with another nation that has nuclear weapons and then picks a fight with someone new who hasn't done shit to us? Not a goddamned chance.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
ShadowSwordmaster said:
Would that even work?
Click to expand...

Let's ask him if he thinks it might

GB8oyrS.png
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Plinko said:
I'm just trying to have a civil conversation. Talking down to me like I'm some plebe is immature at best and makes me want to ignore you completely at worst. If you want that, just let me know and I'll be glad to not respond to your posts. If I'm reading your tone wrong, I apologize--massive migraine going on right now.

Look--I lived there for decades and have political connections there I'd rather not get into here. You can act like I don't know anything about how it's going in the state if that's your prerogative, but I think I've got a much better idea than a lot of people on this board. Trust me--democrats are FREAKING OUT behind the scenes about the brain drain issue and rural spread throughout the state.

Trump's popularity is falling everywhere. Not sure why you're bringing it up. That said, there's no real indication that it is happening in Michigan merely because we don't have any solid polls since May. The Gallup poll is an odd one that isn't necessarily as useful as a solid, standalone poll. I'd like to see one soon, though, and I'm a little surprised they haven't done one in a while (speaking of, why haven't we seen individual state polls recently? Expensive to run and not useful at this far point from the election?). We do know that his popularity in counties that won him the election is still pretty high (above 50%), but I still don't see what this has to do with Ritchie running against Stabenow. He's a popular, beloved rock star but nobody is tying him to Trump at this time.

As for gerrymandering, it was just mentioned as an addition to the whole "the entire political climate has changed" scenario.
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I mean, I'm bringing it up because presidential popularity is one of the biggest barometers to midterm success of the opposition party and you handwaving it away shows that you're not actually on top of these issues as you think you are. Of course he's tied to Trump! Every Republican is!

The fact that you keep going back to "I'm from Michigan!" negates you are actively ignoring, annoyingly so, the factors that take place in a midterm election.

If I'm being a dick, it's because I feel I'm consistently trying to engage with someone with a holier than thou position on Michigan where the sky is always falling. Consistently freaking out about things that the worst is going to happen is a frustrating person to engage with.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
whyamihere said:
I mean, I'm bringing it up because presidential popularity is one of the biggest barometers to midterm success of the opposition party and you handwaving it away shows that you're not actually on top of these issues as you think you are. Of course he's tied to Trump! Every Republican is!

The fact that you keep going back to "I'm from Michigan!" negates you are actively ignoring, annoyingly so, the factors that take place in a midterm election.

If I'm being a dick, it's because I feel like consistently don't want to engage with people when they talk about Michigan and take a holier than thou position on Michigan that makes it frustrating to engage with you when it's not that the sky is falling. Consistently freaking out about things that the worst is going to happen is a frustrating person to engage with.
Click to expand...

Nobody. Was. Freaking. Out.

Let alone "consistently."
 
A

antonz

Member
ShadowSwordmaster said:
Is Trump trying to move away from North Korea with that comment?
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Trump is simple minded enough he thinks mentioning the Military in regard to any problem in the world is somehow going to fix everything.

I mean he already lost the bluster war with North Korea. He drew the red line and North Korea immediately shit on Trumps side of the line.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
whyamihere said:
I mean, that's pretty much your MO, but okay.
Click to expand...

Ah yes, because I thought the democrat would win the Georgia special election, that people should stop freaking out about Trump/NK, repeatedly tell people to chill and let Mueller have the time he needs, and think the dems will have a blue wave in 2018 and win the presidency in 2020 means I am "consistently freaking out." Sure thing.

Again, read the post you responded to. Nobody. Was. Freaking. Out. Direct your attention elsewhere if you can't see that. Or are you mixing me up with a couple of the other posters here?
 
S

ShadowSwordmaster

Banned
antonz said:
Trump is simple minded enough he thinks mentioning the Military in regard to any problem in the world is somehow going to fix everything.

I mean he already lost the bluster war with North Korea. He drew the red line and North Korea immediately shit on Trumps side of the line.
Click to expand...

He is trying to get support and failing at it.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Plinko said:
Ah yes, because I thought the democrat would win the Georgia special election, that people should stop freaking out about Trump/NK, repeatedly tell people to chill and let Mueller have the time he needs, and think the dems will have a blue wave in 2018 and win the presidency in 2020 means I am "consistently freaking out." Sure thing.

Again, read the post you responded to. Nobody. Was. Freaking. Out. Direct your feigned outrage elsewhere.
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I did! You are, but that's fine. You also have a blind spot about Michigan and for some reason asked what the president's approval ratings have to do with a midterm election. Come on.

Anyways.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
whyamihere said:
I did! You are, but that's fine. You also have a blind spot about Michigan and for some reason asked what the president's approval ratings have to do with a midterm election. Come on.

Anyways.
Click to expand...

If my original statement of "That's a tossup" equals "freaking out" in your mind, I don't know what to tell you. As for "blind spot about Michigan," please. Everyone on here said Michigan was a cakewalk for Hillary. Like 2 of us voiced concern about Trump driving rural voters in the state to the polls and were criticized numerous times for it and called "bedwetters" more times than one can count. I still thought Hillary would win the state close and thought it would go red in 2020, but it happened early.

As for Trump, many republicans are already positioning themselves to run as candidates who don't support him. We just saw an article about it this morning. That's why I said nobody was tying him to Trump at this point and made the point that his bizarrely high celebrity status among rural voters in the state could again drive them to the polls.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Plinko said:
If my original statement of "That's a tossup" equals "freaking out" in your mind, I don't know what to tell you.

As for Trump, many republicans are already positioning themselves to run as candidates who don't support him. We just saw an article about it this morning. That's why I said nobody was tying him to Trump at this point and made the point that his bizarrely high celebrity status among rural voters in the state could again drive them to the polls.
Click to expand...

I think your inability to realize midterm dynamics is ridiculous.

And yes, it doesn't matter if they want to separate themselves from Trump. We had tons of Democrats run away from Obama in 2010. Guess what? It doesn't fucking matter.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
I am inherently skeptical of any argument that goes "the most recent election shows that politics has changed forever and none of the old rules apply anymore" because I've heard this after every election that occurred during my adult life and yet the old rules keep reasserting themselves.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Box of Kittens said:
I am inherently skeptical of any argument that goes "the most recent election shows that politics has changed forever and none of the old rules apply anymore" because I've heard this after every election that occurred during my adult life and yet the old rules keep reasserting themselves.
Click to expand...

Especially after a disaster like Trump. Given historical trends people are going to be looking for someone to right the ship, not tear it down.
 
S

sangreal

Member
Teggy said:
Well this is a depressing read. How the Google guy is the new gamergate.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/ch...ogle-anti-diversity-memo-pro-trump-media-hero
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saw that coming from a mile away

does he have $250k in a gofundme yet?

the mainstream media hasn't helped much either by mostly boiling his argument down to "Google stifles conservatives and biological differences might contribute to some of the decline in female CS participation" when the actual manifesto was far more broad and disgusting
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
whyamihere said:
I think your inability to realize midterm dynamics is ridiculous.

And yes, it doesn't matter if they want to separate themselves from Trump. We had tons of Democrats run away from Obama in 2010. Guess what? It doesn't fucking matter.
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Seriously. Running away from Obama didn't work. Running away from Bush didn't work. Running away from Clinton didn't work. Etc etc etc

The idea that running away from the president will insulate oneself from midterm backlash is something hardcore partisans tell themselves so they're hopeful they won't get crushed. I honestly don't know if it makes a difference in most cases, but the point is it rarely works. The only ones I've seen who can pull it off are decades-old incumbents in ancestral districts, and even then that's not a guarantee.

I think we should absolutely take Kid Rock seriously as a candidate (my brain just threw up writing that sentence) but acting like he won't be hurt by Trump being unpopular is foolish. If anything his x-factor of "brash, celebrity political outsider" could be severely diminished if people are sufficiently soured on Trump, the last time they elected a brash, celebrity political outsider.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Aaron Strife said:
Is the country ever looking to elect a block of cement? I think the dumbass "can I have a beer with them?" mentality is way too ingrained for that.
Click to expand...

It is, but when people are afraid they tend to run towards competence. They'll abandon it the second everything's fixed, but they'll want it fixed first.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Seriously. Running away from Obama didn't work. Running away from Bush didn't work. Running away from Clinton didn't work. Etc etc etc

The idea that running away from the president will insulate oneself from midterm backlash is something hardcore partisans tell themselves so they're hopeful they won't get crushed. I honestly don't know if it makes a difference in most cases, but the point is it rarely works. The only ones I've seen who can pull it off are decades-old incumbents in ancestral districts, and even then that's not a guarantee.

I think we should absolutely take Kid Rock seriously as a candidate (my brain just threw up writing that sentence) but acting like he won't be hurt by Trump being unpopular is foolish. If anything his x-factor of "brash, celebrity political outsider" could be severely diminished if people are sufficiently soured on Trump, the last time they elected a brash, celebrity political outsider.
Click to expand...

This. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaall of this.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
Joe Shlabotnik said:
I am low-key concerned the Democratic Party tries out a populist just when the country is looking to elect a block of cement
Click to expand...

Competent politicians can still connect to voters' insecurities and inspire them to demand political change. Isn't that basically what Obama did?
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Seriously. Running away from Obama didn't work. Running away from Bush didn't work. Running away from Clinton didn't work. Etc etc etc

The idea that running away from the president will insulate oneself from midterm backlash is something hardcore partisans tell themselves so they're hopeful they won't get crushed. I honestly don't know if it makes a difference in most cases, but the point is it rarely works. The only ones I've seen who can pull it off are decades-old incumbents in ancestral districts, and even then that's not a guarantee.

I think we should absolutely take Kid Rock seriously as a candidate (my brain just threw up writing that sentence) but acting like he won't be hurt by Trump being unpopular is foolish. If anything his x-factor of "brash, celebrity political outsider" could be severely diminished if people are sufficiently soured on Trump, the last time they elected a brash, celebrity political outsider.
Click to expand...

Would running with Obama, Bush etc changed the outcome of any race in 2006, 2010 etc?
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
A Human Becoming said:
The last time the US voted for a block of cement was H.W.: it's all about charisma now.
Click to expand...

We've got Trump fatigue and we're not even a year into this thing. People are talking about him like it's W's seventh year in office already. You really think everyone isn't going to be begging for a return to normalcy in three years?
 
K

kirblar

Member
A Human Becoming said:
The last time the US voted for a block of cement was H.W.: it's all about charisma now.
Click to expand...
And he got blown out on re-election. I don't think Clinton would have had a good chance of re-election, which was the reason the "narrow loss > actually winning" thesis was out there in 2016 way before the election happened.

We just were hoping to not have to learn to live whether we'd survive that possibility

B-Dubs said:
We've got Trump fatigue and we're not even a year into this thing. People are talking about him like it's W's seventh year in office already. You really think everyone isn't going to be begging for a return to normalcy in three years?
Click to expand...
Lots of these people don't remember Dubya Year 7,
 
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